Private Wealth Management williamblair.com Thinking Strategically About Charitable Giving Using charitable giving strategies to enhance the tax-efficiency of your donations plays a vital role in maximizing the impact of your gifts. Introduction Introduction Using charitable giving strategies to enhance the tax-efficiency of your donations plays a vital role in maximizing the impact of your gifts. Enhancing the impact that you and your family can have in supporting causes near to your hearts also requires mo ...

股权研究 宏观经济 2026年1月23日 +44 20 7868 4489 理查德·德·沙扎尔, CFA rdechazal@williamblair.com +1 312 364 8867 劳里·马卡马 经济学周报 lmukama@williamblair.com 请参阅第 14 页和第 15 页的重要披露。分析师认证在第 14 页上。 91022_ac04293e-5a9a-437c-99e4-808075da6f73.pdf 关于凯文有些 事 威廉 布莱尔 财长斯科特·贝森，正在负责寻找下一任美联储主席，本周表示 ，在达沃斯之后，总统将在下周宣布他对该职位的提名。直到 上周，这一选择被广泛认为将是凯文·哈塞特。然而，在总统的 评论之后，市场现在认为哈塞特的机会已经被打击，而投注者 则显著提高了凯文·沃什被任命为主席的机会。 在此 经济学周 刊 并且，在下周可能宣布的事情之前，我们讨论了这个角色 的主要候选人。 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰在理事会的短期任职（始于9月16日， 以填补已离任的阿德里安娜·库格勒的空缺）将于1月31日结束 。因此，总统为下一任美联储主席的人选可能会从2月开始占 据米兰在委员会的席位 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the education financing industry Core Insights - The rising cost of higher education is outpacing inflation, making education financing planning more critical than ever [3][4] - Various financing options are available to help cover education costs, each with its own advantages and disadvantages [5] - Education financing goals must be integrated into overall financial planning, balancing with other objectives like retirement [6] Summary by Sections Rising Education Costs - The value of a college degree significantly impacts future income potential, but tuition costs have historically risen faster than inflation [8] - Over the past 10 years, private four-year colleges have seen tuition increases averaging 2.72% above inflation, while public four-year colleges have increased by 2.82% [8] - The average annual cost for private four-year colleges is projected to reach $60,920 by 2025, while public four-year colleges are expected to average $25,850 [8][10] Savings Tools - Starting to save early can maximize potential returns for education financing [13] - The 529 savings plan offers tax advantages, allowing tax-free growth and distributions for qualified education expenses [14] - Contributions to a 529 plan can be significant, with up to $95,000 allowed in a single year without gift tax implications [18] - Other savings tools include UTMA accounts and trusts, each with unique benefits and drawbacks [23][24] Alternative Funding Sources - Scholarships, grants, and student loans are available as alternative funding sources for education expenses [32] - Tax deductions and credits may be available for families with college students, although eligibility often depends on income levels [34] Planning for Education Costs - Early integration of education financing into overall financial planning is crucial for effective management of educational and retirement goals [36][37] - The report emphasizes the importance of starting education financing planning as soon as possible to ensure a balanced approach to financial goals [37]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The U.S. economy is undergoing significant structural changes, transitioning from a low and stable inflation regime to a low but more volatile one, and from a financialized and hyper-globalized world to a more regionalized trade model [5] - Concerns regarding the negative impacts of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency are not new, with advantages such as deeper capital markets and lower interest rates being countered by burdens like a persistently overvalued exchange rate and excessive debt [6] - The "Triffin Dilemma" highlights the conflict between the U.S. fulfilling global demand for deep and liquid capital markets while maintaining large current account deficits, which can lead to a loss of confidence in the dollar [6][11] - The potential for a new synthetic hegemonic currency (SHC) has been proposed to reduce the dollar's dominance in global trade, which could mitigate the impact of U.S. economic shocks on exchange rates [8] - The report discusses the challenges the U.S. faces in reducing its trade deficit without devaluing the dollar, emphasizing the need for increased domestic savings and potential capital controls [26][31] Summary by Sections - **Macroeconomic Changes**: The U.S. is shifting towards a more volatile inflation environment and regionalized trade, with implications for the dollar's status as a reserve currency [5] - **Dollar's Reserve Status**: The dollar's advantages come with significant burdens, leading to discussions about alternative currencies and the potential for a new SHC [6][8] - **Triffin Dilemma**: The dilemma illustrates the inherent conflict in maintaining the dollar's reserve status while managing large deficits, raising concerns about future currency stability [6][11] - **Policy Implications**: The report outlines potential strategies for the U.S. to address its trade deficit, including increasing domestic savings and encouraging capital outflows, while warning of the risks of a controlled devaluation of the dollar [26][31]

Industry Investment Rating - Emerging market (EM) corporate debt offers compelling opportunities due to its diversity and potential for return dispersion [2][6] Core Themes Impacting EM Corporate Debt - Negative net supply, U S policies, crude oil, interest rate trajectory, and improved default rates are key themes for 2025 [6] EM Corporate Debt Performance - In 2024, EM corporate credit performance was strong with index returns surpassing 7 6%, outperforming both EM and developed market (DM) credit in most rating categories except CCCs [5] Negative Net Supply - EM corporate debt market cap grew from $300 billion to $1 4 trillion ($2 2 trillion including quasi-corporates) from 2010 to its peak, driven by Asia, particularly China [7] - Net financing turned negative in 2022 and 2023 due to a 50% drop in gross issuance from its peak, though issuance stabilized in 2024 and is expected to remain stable in 2025 [8][14] U S Policies - The Trump 2 0 administration's potential trade policies, particularly tariffs on China, and a softer outlook for EM currencies are key risks for EM corporates [15] - Greater China issuers account for 15% of the J P Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified index, with 74% being investment-grade (IG) rated [16][17] Crude Oil - Global oil demand growth for 2025 is forecast at 1 million barrels per day, below historical averages, with China and the U S being the primary demand drivers [35][36] - OPEC's output constraints and geopolitical factors, such as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, add volatility to oil markets [38][39] Interest Rates and Financing Costs - Higher interest rates have increased average coupons by over 40 basis points (bps) since 2021, with lower-rated issuers more affected by rising financing costs [46][52] - The index maturity profile is stable, with 5% maturing in 2025 and 10-15% per year over the next five years, in line with historical averages [53] Default Rates - The long-term default rate for the HY component of the EM corporate universe is 3 6%, with defaults peaking during COVID-related stress and Chinese real estate sector challenges [60][62] - Default rates are expected to remain contained in 2025, supported by issuers' ability to address near-term maturities and expanded financing options [63][64]