2025.08．25 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 此次，一直和美国总统特朗普唱反调的鲍威尔也终于"松口"了，演讲之初就开宗明义——要降息了。 日前，某华尔街大行的中国首席经济学家在闭门会上提及，最近全球市场似乎无惧于经济数据、政策不 确定性的影响，俨然有一个流动性驱使的"水牛"征兆。 在美国，市场对人工智能（AI）主题疯狂扎堆炒作；在欧元区，欧洲央行的持续降息创造了低利率环 境，再通胀和国防支出加码的预期导致资金涌入国防和周期股。而中国在基本面企稳和政策预期下，低 利率驱动部分居民储蓄等资金流入股市，保险资金砸下近万亿增持股市。 8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，"基准前景和风险平衡的变化可能需要 我们调整政策立场"。高盛认为，9月会议降息25个基点（BP）是大概率事件。当前，摩根大通、摩根 士丹利、高盛等投行普遍认为，降息将给亚洲市场注入动能，即使已经历大涨。 鲍威尔口风急转 杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会是每年常规的美联储会议之外最重要的政策会议，从2010年以来，多项重要的 政策转向都是通过这个场合对外官宣的。 如2010年和2012年时任美联储主席伯南克暗示的两轮量化宽松，2014年 ...

2025.08. 25 本文字数：2790，阅读时长大约4.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 日前，某华尔街大行的中国首席经济学家在闭门会上提及，最近全球市场似乎无惧于经济数据、政策 不确定性的影响，俨然有一个流动性驱使的"水牛"征兆。 在美国，市场对人工智能（AI）主题疯狂扎堆炒作；在欧元区，欧洲央行的持续降息创造了低利率 环境，再通胀和国防支出加码的预期导致资金涌入国防和周期股。而中国在基本面企稳和政策预期 下，低利率驱动部分居民储蓄等资金流入股市，保险资金砸下近万亿增持股市。 此次，一直和美国总统特朗普唱反调的鲍威尔也终于"松口"了，演讲之初就开宗明义——要降息了。 鲍威尔表示，"基准前景与风险平衡的变化可能需要我们调整政策立场。在这一年中，在经济政策发 生深刻变革的背景下，美国经济表现出了韧性。就美联储的双重使命目标而言，就业市场仍接近最大 就业水平，通胀虽然依然偏高，但已从疫情后的高点大幅回落。与此同时，风险的平衡似乎正在发生 转变。" 过去一段时间，美国关键的经济数据显示出相互矛盾的信息。最新CPI尤其是服务通胀高于预期，但 非农爆冷显示出劳动力市场正在降温甚至出现疲弱迹象，这令美联储陷入遏制潜 ...

中国股市仍存动能 日前，某华尔街大行的中国首席经济学家在闭门会上提及，最近全球市场似乎无惧于经济数据、政策不 确定性的影响，俨然有一个流动性驱使的"水牛"征兆。 在美国，市场对人工智能（AI）主题疯狂扎堆炒作；在欧元区，欧洲央行的持续降息创造了低利率环 境，再通胀和国防支出加码的预期导致资金涌入国防和周期股。而中国在基本面企稳和政策预期下，低 利率驱动部分居民储蓄等资金流入股市，保险资金砸下近万亿增持股市。 8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，"基准前景和风险平衡的变化可能需要 我们调整政策立场"。高盛认为，9月会议降息25个基点（BP）是大概率事件。当前，摩根大通、摩根 士丹利、高盛等投行普遍认为，降息将给亚洲市场注入动能，即使已经历大涨。 鲍威尔口风急转 杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会是每年常规的美联储会议之外最重要的政策会议，从2010年以来，多项重要的 政策转向都是通过这个场合对外官宣的。 如2010年和2012年时任美联储主席伯南克暗示的两轮量化宽松，2014年时任欧洲央行行长德拉吉为量化 宽松政策做铺垫，2015年和2016年时任美联储主席耶伦提前释放加息信号，以及2020年鲍威尔 ...

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞 、赵宇 、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人 | 陈达飞 摘要 大类资产&海外事件&数据：美欧日制造业PMI反弹、美国扩大钢铝关税 发达市场多数上涨，商品价格多数下跌。 当周，标普500上涨0.3%，英国富时100上涨2.0%；10Y美债收 益率下行7.0bp至4.3%；美元指数下跌0.1%至97.72，离岸人民币升值至7.1712；WTI原油上涨1.4%至63.7 美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨1.1%至3373.6美元/盎司。 美国扩大钢铝关税、美欧公布正式贸易协议。 8月19日，美国称将扩大钢铝衍生品关税范围，407个产品 类别将被添加到衍生钢铝产品清单，征收50%的关税，涉及进口产品金额约1380亿美元。8月21日，美欧 公布贸易框架协议的细节，美对欧汽车及零部件关税降至15%。 鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔演讲放鸽，8月美欧日Markit制造业PMI反弹。 在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，鲍威 尔表示"风险平衡的转变可能需要调整政策"、"就业面临下行风险"，表态偏鸽；8月美欧日制造业PMI分 别反弹至53.3、50.5、49.9；日本7月核心CPI超预期强劲。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期 ...

记者丨吴斌 向秀芳 编辑丨李莹亮 和佳 金珊 8月21日，美股三大指数集体低开。 截至23:25，跌幅均有所收窄，道琼斯指数跌0.21%，标普500指数跌0.19%，纳斯达克综合指数跌0.16%。 | 热门科技股涨跌不一。 | | --- | 零售巨头沃尔玛最新财报显示盈利未达预期，股价一度跌超5%。 中概股逆势上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.43%。 热门个股方面，BOSS直聘涨超8%，蔚来、名创优品涨超7%，哔哩哔哩跌近7%，小马智行跌超3%。 此外， 小鹏汽车大涨超13% 。 消息面上，据香港交易所公告，小鹏汽车称其董事长、CEO兼控股股东何小鹏于8月20日至8月21日期间，以平均每股80.49港元，购入了310万 股A类普通股。何小鹏通过其全资拥有的Galaxy Dynasty在公开市场购入上述股份。 此次交易后，何小鹏持有公司约18.9%的股份。 8月19日晚，小鹏汽车公布了最新财报。数据显示，2025年第二季度，小鹏汽车总营收为人民币182.7亿元，较2024年同期增长125.3%，并较 2025年第一季度增长15.6%，创下单季度历史新高。 全球市场紧盯杰克逊霍尔 鲍威尔能否顶住压力 金融圈一年 ...

Group 1 - The global financial markets are entering a phase of uncertainty and critical decision-making, influenced by unexpected U.S. inflation data, diverging monetary policies among major central banks, and potential geopolitical impacts [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while core inflation rose by 2.7%, initially suggesting a clear path for a rate cut in September [2] - However, the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly surged by 0.9% month-on-month, with a core PPI year-on-year increase of 3.7%, indicating rising production costs and the reality of "tariff-induced inflation" [2][3] Group 2 - The unexpected rise in PPI, along with downward revisions in non-farm employment data, has diminished the likelihood of a September rate cut, leading to a shift in market sentiment from certainty to skepticism regarding rate cuts [3] - Risk assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, have been significantly impacted, reflecting their sensitivity to macroeconomic headwinds, while major U.S. stock indices show signs of hesitation and differentiation [3] - Geopolitical events, such as the meeting between Trump and Putin, could have immediate effects on oil prices, highlighting the direct impact of geopolitical stability on commodity markets [3] Group 3 - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is expected to be a focal point for market participants seeking policy direction, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech being particularly significant [4] - Powell's tone could either suppress rate cut expectations if he emphasizes inflation risks or provide relief to the market if he alleviates inflation concerns [4] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3%, marking it as another developed economy central bank adopting a loosening policy [5] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is under scrutiny for potential additional stimulus measures to boost domestic demand and economic growth, which could significantly impact regional currencies and global commodity markets [5] - Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the UK and Germany will provide insights into European price trends, which could influence the European Central Bank's policy decisions [5] - Global PMI data will serve as a leading indicator for assessing the health of manufacturing and service sectors, providing further context for market conditions [5] Group 5 - The complexity of inflation, particularly "tariff-induced inflation," is challenging traditional monetary policy frameworks, as central banks strive to balance inflation control, growth support, and financial stability [6] - Geopolitical events add unpredictability to the market, necessitating investor vigilance regarding policy signals from the Jackson Hole Symposium and actions from various central banks [6] - The importance of flexibility in asset allocation and risk management is emphasized in the current high-volatility environment, where understanding macroeconomic trends and geopolitical dynamics is crucial for achieving stable returns [6]

—— 从债务螺旋到全球金融震荡的深度解析 一、37 万亿美元的悬崖：数据背后的生死时速 当地时间 8 月 12 日，美国国债总额首次突破 37 万亿美元，较美国国会预算办公室 2020 年预测的时间 线整整提前了 5 年。这一数字相当于美国 2024 年 GDP 的 1.27 倍，若以 3.42 亿总人口计算，平均每个 美国人背负 10.8 万美元债务，折合人民币近 80 万元。更致命的是，美债正以每 5 个月增加 1 万亿美元 的速度膨胀，远超过去 25 年平均增速的两倍。 1. 利息吞噬财政的恶性循环 2024 财年，美国国债利息支出达 1.133 万亿美元，首次超过国防预算（8735 亿美元）和老年医疗保险 支出（8741 亿美元），占财政收入的 18.7%，远超 15% 的国际警戒线。桥水基金创始人瑞・达利欧警 告，这种 "发新债还旧息" 的模式已形成 "死亡螺旋"—— 更高的利息支出迫使美国财政部发行更多债 券，而投资者因风险激增要求更高收益率，进一步推高融资成本。 2. 债务上限的政治游戏 尽管美债规模已突破 36.1 万亿美元的法定上限，但两党仍在 "提高上限" 问题上僵持不下。财政部现金 储备 ...

Core Viewpoint - The August Bank of America Fund Manager Survey (FMS) indicates a significant improvement in investor sentiment, reaching a six-month high, driven by optimism regarding AI's impact on productivity and expectations of a "soft landing" for the global economy [1][3][7] Group 1: Investor Sentiment and Economic Outlook - 68% of respondents expect a "soft landing" for the global economy, with only 5% anticipating a "hard landing," the lowest since January [9] - The net overweight ratio for equities has risen for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 14%, the highest in six months [4] - Optimism regarding future interest rate cuts has reached its highest point since December 2024 [11] Group 2: AI and Productivity - 55% of fund managers believe AI has already begun to enhance productivity, a significant increase from 42% in July [5][16] - Despite the optimism, there is a divide regarding AI stocks, with 52% believing they are not in a bubble, while 41% think otherwise [18] Group 3: Emerging Markets and China - There is a notable shift in asset allocation towards emerging markets, with the net overweight ratio for emerging market stocks rising from 22% to 37%, the highest since February 2023 [21] - A net 11% of respondents expect the Chinese economy to strengthen, the highest level since March 2025 [23] Group 4: Cryptocurrency and Gold - Interest in cryptocurrencies remains low, with only 9% of respondents holding them, and an average allocation of just 3.2% among holders [27] - Gold also sees limited interest, with 48% of investors holding it, but an overall average allocation of only 2.2% [30]

Group 1: Historical Evolution of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system has evolved through three major phases since 1870: the Gold Standard, the Bretton Woods System, and the Jamaica System[1] - The Gold Standard operated on a government commitment to maintain currency value through gold reserves, while the Bretton Woods System was a quasi-gold standard based on the unique economic position of the United States[2] - The Jamaica System represents a loose and flexible choice under economic diversification, affirming the current state of a multi-currency system[3] Group 2: Monetary Discipline and Current Challenges - The transition from the Gold Standard to the Bretton Woods System and then to the Jamaica System reflects a gradual loosening of monetary discipline, allowing for more flexible monetary policies[4] - In the 21st century, major economies like Japan, the U.S., and the Eurozone have implemented aggressive quantitative easing near zero interest rates, undermining confidence in these reserve currencies[5] - Emerging economies are increasing their gold reserves, indicating a paradox where the freedom from gold constraints leads to a heightened desire for gold reserves[6] Group 3: Capital Flows and Regulatory Needs - International capital flows have grown significantly, revealing the weaknesses of existing monetary systems, with capital acting as a powerful force that can destabilize these systems[7] - The Jamaica System's characteristics of freedom and diversity allow international capital to attack weaker economic regions, necessitating capital control measures to prevent financial crises in emerging markets[8] Group 4: Future of the Monetary System - The future restructuring of the international monetary system will depend on shifts in global economic and trade centers, influenced by technological advancements and industrial competitiveness[9] - The current monetary system faces challenges from structural imbalances among major economies, which could lead to financial crises and increased protectionism, particularly from the U.S.[10]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming A-share market is predicted to be an epic bull market that will surpass the historical peak of 6124 points, marking the beginning of a significant upward trend in the stock market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - The current market is likely entering an overall upward cycle, although the exact timing of the bull market is difficult to predict. It is suggested that this bull market may not exceed the 2007 bull market's sixfold increase from 998 to 6124 points, but it is expected to surpass the 6124 peak [3][4]. - Historical analysis shows that countries entering the industrialization phase typically experience long periods of market fluctuations followed by significant upward trends. This pattern has been observed in countries like South Korea and Japan, where substantial market gains occurred within a short timeframe [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - To benefit from the bull market, investors should be cautious and avoid common pitfalls such as high positions at market peaks and low positions at market lows. Successful investors often act contrary to market sentiment, increasing positions during downturns and reducing them during peaks [8]. - The stock market's rise can stimulate consumer spending due to perceived wealth increases, but this can lead to unsustainable spending habits that may result in future losses [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Chinese stock market is seen as a suitable outlet for the significant surplus capital available in various sectors, suggesting that it is unlikely to experience severe downturns [10]. - The phenomenon of "bull short, bear long" is expected to continue, driven by emotional market dynamics rather than fundamental factors, leading to potential market bubbles [11]. Group 4: Foreign Investment Trends - Recent foreign investments in Chinese stocks and funds indicate a positive outlook, as China is viewed as a safe and convenient investment destination with relatively low stock valuations [12].