纽约时间下午3点过后不久，长端收益率当日仍下行接近5个基点，短债收益率几乎没有变化，使得2年 期/10年期与5年期/30年期利差接近日内低点，分别收窄约4个基点和3个基点。 12月份ADP就业数据公布后不久，国债期货升至盘中高点，延续了之前的涨势；数据显示，当月私营部 门就业人数增加4.1万人，低于预估的5万人。 公司新债发行推动本周累计发行总额升至非疫情时期的新高，11家发行人合计发行163.5亿美元新的投 资级债券。 美国国债周三多数收高，尽管公司新债发行依旧繁忙，但美国上午时段ADP私营部门就业数据弱于预期 推动国债走强。不过，短债之后回吐了涨幅。在美国国债期权市场，押注10年期收益率下行的需求仍在 延续，而英国国债的相对强势也提供了额外支撑。 30年期国债收益率报4.8182%， 5年和30年期国债收益率差报112.4个基点， 2年和10年期国债收益率差报66.83个基点。 责任编辑：李桐 美国国债周三多数收高，尽管公司新债发行依旧繁忙，但美国上午时段ADP私营部门就业数据弱于预期 推动国债走强。不过，短债之后回吐了涨幅。在美国国债期权市场，押注10年期收益率下行的需求仍在 延续，而英国国债的相对强势 ...

外资行美债&汇率 2026 展望汇总 Contents | | 一、美债 2 | | --- | --- | | • | 美联储新领导层将如何重塑 2026 年收益率曲线?—巴克莱 2 | | • | 2026 年美国利率展望:张力与转型—汇丰 5 | | • | 2026 年美债展望:感受每一天的路径，你走哪条路?—摩根大通 8 | | • | 2026 年利率展望:全球固定收益市场分析—德意志银行 11 | | • | 固定收益 2026 年展望：更具韧性，利差为王；持续的经济韧性；财政刺 | | | 激，两次降息—美银美林 13 | | • | 2026 年核心美债供需展望:明年核心债券净供给将下降—美银美林 18 | | • | 美国利率周报:2026 年展望--宽松之战—花旗 21 | | | 二、汇率 27 | | • | 高盛 2026 年全球外汇市场展望 27 | | • | 亚洲货币:年末短暂喘息，2026 年恐重陷疲软—巴克莱 32 | | • | 2026 年货币展望：权衡利弊—汇丰 37 | | • | 中国本地市场 2026 年展望：看好人民币汇率，利率持中性态度—摩根大通 | | ...

流动性方面，国债ETF5至10年盘中换手3.28%，成交6014.33万元。拉长时间看，截至12月26日，国债ETF5至10年近1月日均成交7.94亿元。 规模方面，国债ETF5至10年最新规模达18.40亿元。（数据来源：Wind） 资金流入方面，国债ETF5至10年最新资金净流出173.06万元。拉长时间看，近20个交易日内，合计"吸金"2.09亿元。（数据来源：Wind） 机构人士指出，当前期货IRR水平在1.7%以上，略高于资金利率和存单利率，如果担忧债市存在调整风险，当前套期保值的成本不高。后续国债期货可以关 注两类策略：1.短端信用利差在资金宽松下的压缩机会，例如短端信用和中端国开与TF/TS的对冲策略；2.近期短端利率下行明显，收益率曲线再度走陡， 可以关注央行买债量和宽松情况，寻找是否有做平曲线机会。中长债可以关注8Y左右的国开凸点。中端债券可以关注5Y左右的国开债。 截至2025年12月26日 15:00，中证5-10年期国债活跃券指数(净价)(H21018)上涨0.03%。国债ETF5至10年(511020)上涨0.05%，最新价报115.37元。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the bond market showed a pattern of "fast bull, slow bear, mainly oscillating", with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield fluctuating between 1.6% - 1.9%. The yield curve changed from bull - steep to bear - flat and then to bear - steep [2][9]. - In 2026, the yield curve is likely to maintain a relatively steep shape, with the short - end being prone to decline and the long - end difficult to fall. The probability of the curve remaining oscillating or slightly bull - steep is higher [3]. - In 2026, the riding strategy is a better choice than simply relying on duration extension. The 5 - year to 4 - year Treasury bond riding strategy is optimal on the current yield curve, with relatively controllable risks [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1.行情回顾：债市“快牛慢熊”，曲线从牛陡走向熊陡 - In 2025, the bond market experienced a "fast bull, slow bear" and entered an oscillating market. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield oscillated between 1.6% - 1.9%. The short - term bond interest rate first rose and then fell during the year, and the yield curve changed from bull - steep to bear - flat and then to bear - steep [9]. - In Q1, long - term interest rates dropped significantly, short - term interest rates rebounded sharply, and the curve changed from bull - steep to bear - flat; in Q2, the bond market entered a sideways consolidation, and the curve remained relatively flat; in Q3, long - term bond yields rose significantly, short - term fluctuations were limited, and the curve changed from bear - flat to bear - steep; in Q4, the "bear - steep" of the curve was further strengthened [11]. 3.2 2.行情展望：排除长端大幅上行风险，曲线陡峭化或延续 3.2.1 2.1 曲线形态：短端易落长端难下，收益率曲线或延续陡峭 - After the bear - steep, there are three typical trends: bear - flat, bull - steep, and oscillation. In 2026, the curve is most likely to remain steep or slightly bull - steep, with a high probability of a structural differentiation pattern of "short - end decline, long - end oscillation" [14][15]. 3.2.2 2.2 四个约束：限制长端收益率大幅上行的因素 - ROIC: The central decline of ROIC in recent years restricts the significant upward movement of long - term Treasury bond yields [16][18]. - Long - term loan interest rate and long - term Treasury bond interest rate: The long - term loan interest rate is still falling, and the long - term Treasury bond yield is difficult to rise significantly [19]. - Stock - bond ratio: The current stock - bond ratio is in a neutral range, and if the bond yield rises significantly, it will enter the allocation value range [21]. - Asset - liability ratio: The spread between the liability costs of banks and insurance and the Treasury bond yields has been significantly eased, and the stabilizing effect of the allocation disk may suppress the significant upward movement of yields [23]. 3.3 3.利率策略：做陡曲线，骑乘策略或是最佳选择 3.3.1 3.1 策略选择：曲线偏陡背景下，骑乘优于单纯久期博弈 - In 2026, it is difficult to simply rely on duration extension to bet on interest rate decline. The riding strategy can obtain certain returns from the curve shape and is more suitable for the market characteristics of "low interest rate, low volatility, and dominated by curve structural changes" [25][28]. 3.3.2 3.2 策略思路：在陡峭曲线下，选择1年持有期的曲线凸点 - In the riding strategy, the 5 - year Treasury bond riding to the 4 - year is the optimal convex point on the current yield curve, which can obtain relatively certain structural returns while controlling risks [30][32]. 3.3.3 3.3 策略模拟：不同情景下骑乘目标收益测算与风险衡量 - Under the static curve assumption, the one - year target return of the 5 - year to 4 - year riding strategy is about 2.01%; under the bull - steep assumption, it can be increased to about 2.20%. The 5 - year riding strategy has a relatively thick risk cushion, and the risk is relatively controllable [34][35].

固收｜降准降息，何谓"灵活高效"？20251224 摘要 中国货币政策强调适时、适度和有效性，央行操作灵活，可根据经济环 境调整利率，理论上操作机会远超美联储，需关注宏观环境和政策时机 以确保操作效果。 中国主要有政策利率（7 天逆回购利率，目前 1.4%）、基准利率、存款 利率和贷款利率四种类型，分别在调控市场流动性、金融产品定价、影 响居民储蓄和企业融资等方面发挥作用。 评估降息效果可观察股指表现，其被视为宏观经济晴雨表。过去央行在 关键节点调控，如美联储降息和中美贸易谈判前夕，股市均出现明显反 弹，表明股指是直观评估指标。 2026 年 3 月中国两会将提出"十五五"规划纲要，政策落地有望通过 降息提振股市。春节后资金流向影响市场，提振风险偏好有助于资金从 虚拟经济转向实体经济。 2025-2026 年不应过度期待多次大幅度降息，重点是改变债务结构而 非单纯降低融资成本，通过政府加杠杆来优化融资结构，多次大幅度降 息并非必要。 Q&A 2025 年的中央经济工作会议提到灵活高效应用降准降息等多种政策工具，如 何理解这一点？展望 2026 年，宽货币节奏应如何看待？ 2025 年的中央经济工作会议强调了灵 ...

Core Insights - The Nasdaq index is highly sensitive to interest rate changes due to its significant allocation in growth and technology stocks, leading to rapid valuation adjustments in response to discount rate changes [1] - Market reactions to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements often involve a two-phase process: an initial reaction followed by a digestion phase, where traders reassess the implications of the statements [2] - The relationship between bond yields and the Nasdaq index is crucial; rising yields can limit the index's upward momentum, while declining yields tend to support continued gains [3] Market Dynamics - Initial reactions to FOMC meetings are characterized by algorithmic trading responding to headlines, resulting in increased volatility due to temporary liquidity contraction [2] - The Nasdaq index often experiences significant intraday volatility on FOMC meeting days, reflecting the two-phase market response [2] Trading Pitfalls - A common misconception is that dovish statements guarantee market gains; disappointment from the Fed not exceeding expectations can lead to market reversals [4] - Historical performance indicates that the Nasdaq index accelerates during easing cycles but may stagnate or decline when interest rate expectations shift [4] - Traders often misinterpret the balance the Fed strikes between optimism and caution, leading to potential misjudgments in market reactions [4] Strategic Approaches - A disciplined trading strategy should involve waiting for market volatility to stabilize before entering positions, as this helps clarify risk and avoid emotional trading [5] - Adjusting investment preferences based on yield trends rather than headlines is recommended; alignment with expected interest rate movements can enhance market confidence [5] Risk Management - In the current environment, position sizing and risk management are deemed more critical than precision in trading decisions [6] Outlook - The Nasdaq index is expected to maintain high volatility around FOMC meetings as discussions on policy shifts continue, with each meeting potentially reshaping market expectations [7] - Successful trading hinges on understanding market reaction patterns rather than predicting policy outcomes, with patience and flexibility being key for long-term investors [7]

Busy day for data and we're getting a little bit more right now out of Conference Board. Let's get back to Rick Santelli. Hey Rick.Yes indeed, Carl. December consumer confidence from conference board expected to come in around 91 is a disappointment. Comes in at 89.1%.However, last month's 88.7% shoots all the way up to 92.9%, which makes this number at 89.1% the biggest since the revision of last month. And last month's revision at 92.9% will be the best since the month before that October when it was 95 a ...

周一进行的两年期国债标售需求疲弱，投标倍数仅2.54，低于平均水平，但BMO利率策略师认为，随 着波动性降低和缺乏短期事件风险，这对投标信心是好兆头。 美国财政部本周还将标售五年期和七年期公债，市场关注这些操作对流动性的影响。 今日周二(12月23日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于69.34一线上方，今日开盘于68.99美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报69.60美元/盎司，上涨0.85%，最高触及69.69美元/盎司，最低下探68.87美元/盎 司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美国10年期国债收益率上涨1.8个基点至4.168%，两年期收益率上涨2.5个基点至3.510%，30年期收益率 上涨2个基点至4.8415%。 收益率曲线关键部分——两年期与10年期收益率差扩大至65.9个基点，这被视为经济预期指标，暗示市 场对未来增长持谨慎态度。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银目前依然处于逼空近阶段，空头不死多头不止。不过，近期白银历史新高都会遭到空头打压， 谨防调整后再涨。下一个上行目标是收盘价突破70.00美元的强劲技术阻力位；空头的下一个下行目标 是收盘价跌破63.00美元的 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 波动跨年，关注 3Y 以内城投 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 信用债市场周观察 | | --- | | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 估值小幅回落，股性转债继续领涨：可转 | 2025-12-16 | ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-12-22 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《【中邮固收】生产热度下行，大宗商 品价格回落——高频数据跟踪 20251213》 - 2025.12.15 固收周报 曲线越陡越安全 ——流动性周报 20251221 l 短端的下行可能是超长端调整到位的信号 观点回顾：明年一季度央行中长期流动性操作大概率维持宽松状 态，资金价格平稳运行已经成为常态。如果对短端做更为细致的择时 判断，我们业认存为单同利率可能在岁末年初几个工作日向下突破 1.6%，在明年 1 月中之后可能有所上行，但不会突破 1.7%，我们更倾 向于总量宽松契机出现，短端随之出现中枢性下行。 收益率曲线在因超长端上行而走陡之后，又因短端下行而走陡。 我们多次讨论，央行操作思路和模式的改变，可能使得资金价格进入 平稳运行状态，而近期重启的 14 天逆回购也给跨年流动性多加了一 层保险。资金在年末时点的平稳运行，会反过来催化流动性宽松预期。 央行购债规模预期升高，推动短端国债收益率单独下行。即 ...