And Barry Knapp is here around the table called the table with us. Um he's Ironside's macroeconomics managing partner and Joe made a reference to this earlier. Uh Barry, welcome that sometimes it takes a day for so is it is it a delayed kind of settling in of reality or do you think the new facts, the targeting of the Gulf, what's going on with oil prices, are those enough to kind of go from a sort of shrugging this off yesterday afternoon to now being down significantly again.To be sure, Europe's got a m E ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly in long-term bonds, as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes and a $16 billion auction of 20-year bonds [1] - The yield curve for 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds continues to steepen, with short-term bond yields experiencing smaller increases, as the meeting minutes may signal the timing of future interest rate cuts [1] - According to Eric Chia from Exness, the market is in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, which could set the tone for the coming days [1] Group 2 - Data from Tradeweb indicates that the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.4 basis points to 3.450% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2.1 basis points to 4.075% [1]

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a bullish trend supported by ample liquidity and institutional demand, with yields dropping below the critical 1.8% level as investors prefer bonds over other assets ahead of the holiday [1][3] - Major banks have become the primary buyers in the bond market, driven by a "deposit-loan mismatch" phenomenon, which has led to increased bond allocations since December [2][6] - The central bank's recent actions, including a net injection of 448 billion yuan into the market, have contributed to a favorable environment for bonds, with interbank liquidity remaining abundant [3][6] Group 2 - As of February 12, 2026, the yield on the 10-year government bond has decreased to around 1.77%, reflecting a broader trend of declining yields across various maturities [3][4] - A significant majority of bond funds have delivered positive returns since the beginning of 2026, with 3523 out of 3574 medium to long-term pure bond funds achieving positive returns [4][5] - The current market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations for a relatively mild bond market environment in 2026, as banks are likely to continue favoring long-term bonds due to improved cost structures and ample liquidity [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a shift in market expectations towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by weak labor market data and changes in monetary policy outlook [1][3] - The labor market data showed a significant drop in job openings, with December's JOLTS vacancies falling to 6.54 million from 6.93 million in November, marking the lowest level since 2020 [1] - The yield curve has steepened following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair, with expectations of a dovish monetary policy stance influencing short-term rates while long-term rates are affected by liquidity concerns [3] Group 2 - Gold prices increased by 1.6% over the week, recovering from previous declines, but the market is expected to take time to rebuild confidence and structure [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve chair's proposal to shorten the average maturity of the Fed's balance sheet may delay the issuance of long-term bonds, providing limited support for gold prices [2] - Chinese demand for precious metals is a key driver, but may weaken temporarily due to the upcoming Lunar New Year, potentially reducing volatility in the global precious metals market [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities declined, with the 30-year UST down 2 basis points to 4.85%, and the 10-year UST down 3 basis points to 4.2% [3] - The usage of overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ONRRP) fell to $3.11 billion, a decrease of $7.31 billion from the previous week [3] - The net short positions in 2-year and 10-year UST futures increased, indicating a bearish sentiment among non-commercial investors [3] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.5% to 97.6, moving in tandem with gold prices, which suggests an increasing correlation between the two [7] - The total holdings of the dollar index decreased, with non-commercial long positions down by 1,335 contracts to 17,000 contracts, while short positions decreased by 4,888 contracts to 17,000 contracts [10] - Offshore dollar liquidity costs have risen, as indicated by the decline in the 3-month Basis Swaps for both the yen and euro [13] Group 5 - The copper-to-gold ratio fell to 2.63, indicating a marginal decline in global demand momentum as copper prices dropped while gold prices rose [16] - The gold-silver ratio increased due to the rise in gold prices and the decline in silver prices, reflecting market dynamics [19] - Gold premiums increased after a price correction, indicating strong domestic buying support [28] Group 6 - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 331,000 ounces to 35.294 million ounces, while silver inventory fell by 1.523 million ounces to 39.0466 million ounces [34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 7.44 tons to 1,079.7 tons, remaining near the lower median of the past decade [39] - COMEX gold total positions fell by 78,769 contracts to 489,000 contracts, with a notable increase in short positions, indicating a growing bearish sentiment [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads are continuously widening, reaching a ten - year high. The report analyzes the driving mechanisms and characteristics of these two key spreads, revealing the differences in dominant forces and structural change trends of different term spreads [1]. - In 2026, the steepening of the yield curve will continue, and the 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads will generally widen marginally. The 10Y - 1Y spread will be steepened by monetary easing and may widen, while the 30Y - 10Y spread will be repaired by supply and rise in an oscillatory manner [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 10Y - 1Y Spread: Short - end Dominant, Long - end Amplifying - **Driving Factors: Policy Anchor, Growth Expectation, and Supply - demand Structure** - The 10Y - 1Y spread reflects the relative changes among short - term policy interest rates, medium - and long - term growth and inflation, and bond supply - demand structure. Short - term interest rates are more sensitive to monetary policy and the money market, while long - term interest rates reflect future growth trends, inflation expectations, and economic cycle changes. Bond supply - demand structure differences and investor behavior also affect the spread [9]. - **Pricing Logic: A Stable Negative Dynamic Equilibrium Relationship between 1Y and 10Y - 1Y** - Short - term interest rates determine the core direction of the 10Y - 1Y spread. After removing the influence of interest rate central migration, the 1 - year Treasury yield and the spread show a clear negative correlation. Long - term interest rates have a limited and unstable impact on the 10Y - 1Y spread [10][13]. - **Periodic Deviation: Structural Disturbance under Short - end Dominance** - The short - term interest rate and the 10Y - 1Y spread generally show a strong negative correlation, but there are also periodic changes in their correlation during the interest rate central switching stage. The 1 - year yield dominates the spread direction, and the negative correlation between the spread and the 1 - year yield may deviate or weaken in the short term. The correlation between the spread and the 10 - year Treasury yield is weak [17]. 3.2 30Y - 10Y Spread: The Dominance Shifting to the Ultra - long End, Spread Repricing - **Driving Factors of the 30Y - 10Y Spread: Differentiation in Supply - demand, Expectation, and Term Sensitivity** - The 30Y - 10Y spread reflects the differences in supply - demand structure, long - term expectations, and policy sensitivity between long - term and medium - long - term Treasuries. Its core drivers include supply - demand structure differences, differences in long - term economic growth and inflation expectations, and the impact of policy uncertainty and term sensitivity differences [25]. - **Core Pricing Logic: The Ultra - long End is Becoming the Dominant Force of the Spread** - The correlation between the 10 - year Treasury yield and the 30Y - 10Y spread is generally weak. The 30 - year Treasury yield has a more stable positive linkage with the spread, indicating that the ultra - long - end interest rate is playing an increasingly prominent role in driving the 30Y - 10Y spread [26][27]. - **Stage Switching: Multiple Combination Forms of Interest Rate Central Changes** - The pricing center of the 30Y - 10Y spread is gradually shifting to the ultra - long end. In different macro - economic and policy environments, the spread may show multiple combination forms, and the mid - term trend shows that the ultra - long end is gradually becoming the core anchor of spread pricing [34][43]. 3.3 Outlook: The Steepening of the Curve Continues, and the Double Spreads Widen - **10Y - 1Y Spread: Steepened by Easing, May Widen** - In the first half of 2026, the 10Y - 1Y spread may widen. The strengthening of the interest rate cut expectation will lower the short - term interest rate, and the front - loaded fiscal policy will increase the supply pressure, with the long - term pressure being higher [44][45]. - **30Y - 10Y Spread: Repaired by Supply, Rise in an Oscillatory Manner** - In 2026, the supply premium will replace the liquidity premium as the dominant factor of the 30Y - 10Y spread. In the first half of 2026, the 30Y - 10Y spread will remain high and oscillate, and the center may widen further [46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar has strengthened against most G-10 currencies due to a decline in precious metals, despite weak employment data from the US labor market [1][8][11] - The initial jobless claims in the US rose to 231,000, exceeding the forecast of 212,000, while companies announced 108,435 layoffs in January, marking the highest level for that month since 2009 [9][10] - The Bank of England maintained its current stance but adopted a dovish tone, leading to a continued decline in the British pound, which fell 0.8% to 1.3544, the lowest since January 23 [2][11] Group 2 - The euro against the dollar decreased by 0.2% to 1.1783, with the European Central Bank holding interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting [3][11] - The Australian dollar fell by 0.7% to 0.6947, following a significant drop in silver prices by 16%, erasing gains from the previous two days [3][11] - The yield curve for short-term US Treasury bonds steepened, with the 2-year Treasury yield dropping by 7 basis points to 3.48% [10]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Morgan Stanley reports that under Kevin Warsh's leadership, changes in the Federal Reserve are likely to manifest through balance sheet policies rather than interest rates, indicating a gradual reduction in the Fed's balance sheet will lower banks' demand for reserves [1] - The report suggests that a Federal Reserve with a smaller "presence" in communication and balance sheet size could lead to a steeper yield curve [1] - Capital Economics highlights that Warsh's primary challenge will be convincing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members to accept his view on lower interest rates, as he only holds one vote among twelve [5] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - JPMorgan Private Bank views the recent decline in gold prices as a healthy technical correction, with a year-end price target raised to $6,150 per ounce, reflecting a range of $6,000 to $6,300 [2] - Deutsche Bank maintains a bullish outlook on gold, expecting prices to reach $6,000 per ounce, citing ongoing positive factors such as central bank buying [3] - Sucden Financial analysts assert that despite recent price drops due to speculative position liquidations, the long-term structural support for precious metals remains intact, predicting a mild rebound in the near term [4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following the announcement of Warsh's nomination, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield down 1.3 basis points to 3.512% and the 10-year yield down 2.5 basis points to 4.215% [6] - The market's risk sentiment has deteriorated significantly, contributing to a flight to safe-haven assets, including U.S. Treasuries [6] Group 4: Industry Insights and Future Projections - Morgan Stanley projects that the South Korean composite index (Kospi) could reach 7,500 points by 2026, driven by rising chip prices and ongoing reforms in corporate governance and taxation [8] - Citic Securities anticipates rapid growth in domestic energy storage installations, supported by new national pricing mechanisms, and sees investment value in leading firms within the energy storage industry [9] - Zhongtai Securities forecasts a continued recovery in the TMT sector, driven by supportive policies and strong market interest in technology stocks, particularly in AI [12]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that under the leadership of Powell at the Federal Reserve, any substantial changes are more likely to manifest through balance sheet policy rather than interest rates [1] Group 1 - The reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size implies a decrease in banks' demand for reserves, a process that requires time and adjustments to the regulatory framework [1] - Morgan Stanley adds that, all else being equal, a Federal Reserve that adopts a smaller 'presence' in both communication and balance sheet size should lead to a steeper yield curve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury is expected to maintain a stable debt issuance plan in its upcoming debt financing statement, despite market concerns about potential aggressive policy actions from the Trump administration aimed at lowering long-term yields. Group 1: Debt Issuance Plans - The upcoming "quarterly refinancing" auction is anticipated to remain at $125 billion, marking the longest period of "zero adjustments" since the mid-2010s, with current issuance levels being more than double those from that time [1] - Treasury Secretary Besant hinted at a possible increase in long-term bond issuance, but high long-term yields currently make this strategy less attractive [1] - The Treasury is expected to reaffirm its guidance to maintain stable issuance of interest-bearing debt for "at least the next few quarters" [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculations - There is speculation that the U.S. may follow Europe and Japan in reducing the supply of ultra-long bonds due to weakened demand for 30-year bonds globally [4] - Market focus is on whether the Treasury will lower the auction size of interest-bearing bonds amid strong demand for Treasury bills [4] - Discussions around a "new coordination mechanism" between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve have been reignited, particularly with the potential appointment of Kevin Walsh as the next Fed Chair [5] Group 3: Future Auction Expectations - The upcoming quarterly refinancing auction is set to include $58 billion in 3-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes, and $25 billion in 30-year notes [6] - If the Treasury increases interest-bearing bond issuance, the focus may shift to the "belly" of the yield curve (2 to 7 years), while supply of ultra-long bonds may remain unchanged [6] - There is anticipation of an increase in the issuance of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the upcoming quarter, with several banks predicting at least one TIPS auction size increase [6][7] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Pressure - The market expects the Treasury to maintain stable debt issuance policies in the short term, but any subtle changes in language could trigger significant market volatility due to rising deficit pressures and changing government policy objectives [7]

Group 1 - The market reacted calmly to President Trump's nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which is seen as a victory given Trump's history of creating policy uncertainty [1] - Following the announcement, the S&P 500 index fell approximately 0.4%, and the 10-year Treasury yield slightly increased to 4.242%, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1] - Gold and silver, which had recently risen due to monetary policy uncertainty, experienced significant declines, with silver dropping over 25% [1] Group 2 - Walsh's policy stance is viewed as ambiguous on Wall Street; he is often seen as hawkish but has criticized Powell, leading to mixed interpretations of his future policy direction [2] - Some market participants expect Walsh to implement two to three rate cuts this year, suggesting that his leadership may not differ significantly from other candidates [2] - Walsh advocates for a smaller balance sheet for the Fed and has criticized quantitative easing for inflating asset prices without improving wage growth [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that Trump may have chosen a candidate more acceptable to Wall Street to reduce confirmation uncertainties, especially given recent tensions with Powell and ongoing investigations [3] - Trump's nomination of Walsh may signal an attempt to lower resistance while maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve [3] - There are concerns that Trump may express dissatisfaction with Walsh in the future, similar to his previous criticisms of Powell [3]