央行8月21日公告，为丰富香港高信用等级人民币金融产品，完善香港人民币收益率曲线，根据中国人 民银行与香港金融管理局签署的《关于使用债务工具中央结算系统发行中国人民银行票据的合作备忘 录》，2025年8月25日（周一）中国人民银行将通过香港金融管理局债务工具中央结算系统（CMU）债 券投标平台，招标发行2025年第五期和第六期中央银行票据。 第五期中央银行票据期限3个月（91天），为固定利率附息债券，到期还本付息，发行量为人民币300亿 元，起息日为2025年8月27日，到期日为2025年11月26日，到期日遇节假日顺延。 第六期中央银行票据期限1年，为固定利率附息债券，每半年付息一次，发行量为人民币150亿元，起息 日为2025年8月27日，到期日为2026年8月27日，到期日遇节假日顺延。 以上两期中央银行票据面值均为人民币100元，采用荷兰式招标方式发行，招标标的为利率。 ...

Group 1 - The euro/dollar exchange rate has shown a slight increase, reaching 1.1654 with a gain of 0.06% as of the latest report [1] - The steepening of the European yield curve is attributed to the Dutch pension reform and trader arbitrage, rather than inflation concerns, presenting an opportunity for euro bulls and bond arbitrage [1] - The volatility of the euro swap curve has increased, particularly in the long end, indicating potential for further fluctuations in the coming months [1] Group 2 - The 10-year and 30-year swap curves in the Netherlands are expected to steepen further as large pension funds prepare for their transition by January 1, 2026, with the current spread reaching a new high since 2021 [2] - The current inflation outlook is dominated by downside risks, making it unlikely for an interest rate hike narrative to emerge in the short term [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the euro against the dollar has resistance at 1.1730 and 1.1789, with support levels at 1.1590 and 1.1528 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite recent declines in short-term U.S. Treasury yields due to Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, long-term yields are expected to rise slightly in the coming months due to inflation concerns and significant new debt issuance [1][2][4] - The survey of bond strategists suggests that the 10-year Treasury yield is projected to rise from approximately 4.28% to 4.30% over the next three months, and remain around that level into next year [2][4] - Concerns about inflation being more persistent than anticipated, despite expectations of temporary increases due to tariffs, are highlighted as a key factor influencing long-term yields [2][4] Group 2 - A significant influx of nearly $500 billion in new debt is expected this quarter, which may prevent long-term yields from declining significantly, even if inflation rises less than expected [4][5] - The yield curve is anticipated to steepen, with the spread between short-term and long-term yields widening from approximately 50 basis points to 80 basis points over the next year [4][6] - The lack of a deficit reduction plan is causing the market to demand higher yields, reflecting a structural bet on a steepening yield curve [6]

这也是为什么我们看到收益率曲线前端大幅走低的原因。（彭博电视） 贝莱德投资组合经理Jeffrey Rosenberg：美国非农就业报告说明，美联储理事沃勒一派的观点可能正在 占上风，或说服更多人支持降息。 他们可能错过了7月的机会，但这大大提升了9月降息的可能性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the risks of rising prices, emphasizing the importance of its independence for price and macroeconomic stability [1] Group 1 - The central bank needs to observe whether food inflation will slow down as predicted [1] - Price trends are currently rising but remain below 2%, which is the reason for maintaining an accommodative policy [1] - The risk of lagging behind the yield curve is not considered high at this moment [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent adjustment in the bond market has led to a significant rise in the 10-year government bond yield, which has increased by over 10 basis points to around 1.75% [1][12][51] - Historical patterns suggest that similar rapid increases in interest rates typically occur during periods of policy tightening or improved economic expectations. Although inflation expectations have risen, the primary driver for the current bond yield increase is the unexpected rise in commodity prices [1][12][51] - The report forecasts limited upward movement in bond yields in the short term, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.80% in August. Investors are advised to focus on potential rebound opportunities due to the high level of unrealized losses in 10-year bonds [1][12][51] Group 2 - The report discusses the current state of the yield curve, noting that it is relatively flat historically, with limited potential for steepening due to insufficient monetary easing. The report suggests that the yield curve's shape is increasingly influenced by long-term rates [13][54] - Three potential paths for the yield curve to steepen are identified: 1) Central bank announcements of bond purchases, 2) Further easing of funding rates, and 3) Stronger-than-expected economic performance [54][55] - From a portfolio construction perspective, the report recommends an "barbell" strategy, favoring a mix of 2-3 year credit bonds and long-end active bonds, while only considering bullet strategies if there is significant potential for steepening in the yield curve [55][56] Group 3 - The report highlights specific bond selection strategies, indicating that for long-term bonds, attention should be given to bonds such as 230023 and 25T5, while mid-term bonds like 250003, 250405, and 250415 are also recommended [4][19][20] - In the context of credit bonds, the report notes a recent increase in credit spreads, suggesting improved holding value for credit bonds. It recommends maintaining a small position in long-term credit bonds, particularly in the 7-8 year range, while monitoring for potential adjustments based on funding conditions and interest rate movements [20][21] - The report also emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of government bond futures, which have shown a significant decline compared to cash bonds, indicating a favorable hedging value [5][21]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish stance on the US dollar while advocating for long positions in the euro, pound, and yen [2]. Core Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to reach 4% in 2025, with further declines anticipated in 2026, driven primarily by significant rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][3]. - The difference in two-year yields between the US and Europe significantly impacts the dollar's performance, with a decline in US yields likely to weaken the dollar [4]. - The term premium is influenced by multiple factors, including foreign investor sell-offs of US Treasuries and Federal Reserve policies, with expectations of rising term premiums during rate cuts [1][4]. - Economic stimulus policies have a negligible effect on actual GDP growth, and reduced tariff revenues lessen the Treasury's need to raise long-term bond issuance rates [5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Expectations - The yield curve is expected to steepen, with a forecasted decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4% in 2025 and further decreases in 2026, primarily due to anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Currency Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the US dollar is likely to weaken due to falling yields, while the euro may appreciate as European investors have not hedged significant US asset exposures [2][4]. - The pound is expected to rise due to favorable valuations and the parliamentary recess, while the yen's positive fiscal dynamics support its strength [2][6]. Fiscal Policy Implications - Economic stimulus is projected to contribute minimally to GDP growth, with estimates around 20 basis points, and the Treasury's financing needs are expected to remain stable without raising long-term bond rates [5]. Central Bank Decision-Making - Understanding the decision-making tendencies of central banks, particularly those that maintain market pricing ambiguity, is crucial for forex investors [6].

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's interest rate and credit research head, Christoph Rieger, expresses confidence in their bond yield forecasts, indicating limited downward potential for yields in the long term [1] Group 1: Bond Yield Predictions - Deutsche Bank expects a slight decline in the yields of the US 10-year Treasury and German long-term bonds by the end of Q3 [1] - The anticipated decline is based on the expectation that both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, a factor not yet fully reflected in long-term rates [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Rieger notes that additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to be fully absorbed by the yield curve, resulting in limited impact on long-term yields [1]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3340.39 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.04% and a trading range between $3334.99 and $3343.90 [1] - The short-term outlook for international gold appears to be a sideways trend, with key resistance at $3375 [3] Group 2 - Pacific Investment Management Company (Pimco) is aware that potential actions by Trump could lead to significant volatility in the U.S. Treasury market but has not adjusted its positions [2] - Following reports of Trump's possible attempt to dismiss Powell, U.S. stock markets and long-term bond prices experienced a decline, but the market rebounded quickly after Trump denied the reports [2] - Pimco cautioned that Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates could encourage other investors to sell bonds, which would contradict Trump's objectives [2]

"很难确定波动幅度，但我猜测会很大——30年期美国国债收益率的涨幅可能以'百分点'计，而非'基 点'。" 上周公布的美联储6月17-18日会议纪要显示，多数政策制定者仍担忧特朗普进口关税可能引发通胀风 险，因此对7月29-30日会议降息的支持寥寥。 随着美国总统特朗普再次呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，投资者开始保护投资组合以应对通胀上升风险， 这是因为如果美联储更倾向于降息，可能推高物价，并使贷款机构为持有债券获得更高的补偿。 尽管短期来看，对降息更友好的美联储主席可能对股市产生复杂影响，但这最终将导致美元走弱、美国 国债市场波动率上升以及长期利率走高，意味着抵押贷款和公司债券的借贷成本将更加高昂。 自1月重返白宫以来，特朗普多次抨击鲍威尔领导下的美联储迟迟不愿降息，引发外界担忧他意图将美 联储置于自己的掌控之下。 就连摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）也在周二警告此举可能产生意外后果，称美联储的 独立性是神圣不可侵犯的。 部分分析师表示，若市场认为美联储独立性正在削弱，金融资产的波动可能会加剧。其中一个主要风险 是，投资者可能抛售美国国债，导致美国长期债券收益率相对于短期债券收益率上升。 " ...