中港股市短期展望 恒指短期支持參考 25,000 點關口：聯儲局 10 月再次鷹派減息，2026 年 減息空間少於預期。官員意見分歧，減息路徑未明。中美元首 10 月會面 取得成果，美方取消 10%芬太尼關稅，暫停一年 24%對等關稅。兩國緊 張局勢暫時緩和，核心矛盾延後解決。內地第三季經濟進一步降溫，十五 五規劃提出擴大內需及促進科技自立自強，方向符合預期。但短期政策加 碼訊號欠奉，港股企業盈利難有明顯改善。加上近期美國科技股趨向波動， AI 產業鏈估值惹關注，而港股年內至今累積升幅較大，年底獲利誘因較 大。恒指短期支持參考 25,000 點關口。 每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 OPEC+確定2026年第一季暫停增產； 短期看好板塊 企業消息 ➢ 美團(3690)第三季經調整轉蝕160億人民幣遜預期，料末季續虧損； 百度集團(9888)傳開始大規模裁員； 中國燃氣(0384)中期盈利跌24%，收入跌2%； 宏觀焦點 中證監就推出商業不動產投資信託基金試點草案公開徵求意見，明 確商業不動產REITs監管職責； 標普降萬科企業(2202)評級 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index has short-term support at the 25,000 point level, with recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve indicating less room for interest rate cuts than previously expected. The meeting between the US and Chinese leaders in October has temporarily eased tensions, but core issues remain unresolved. The Chinese economy showed further signs of cooling in Q3, with the 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizing the expansion of domestic demand and technological self-reliance, aligning with expectations. However, there are no strong signals for short-term policy adjustments, making it difficult for Hong Kong companies to see significant profit improvements. The Hang Seng Index has seen substantial gains this year, leading to profit-taking incentives as year-end approaches [2][4]. Company Focus - Meituan's performance is a key focus for the market today [3]. Macro Focus - In October, industrial profits in mainland China fell by 5.5%, with total profits for the first ten months reaching 5.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. The mining sector saw a significant profit decline of 27.8%, while manufacturing profits grew by 7.7% [4][8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation is enhancing antitrust enforcement in key areas to promote fair competition and optimize the business environment [8]. - In November, 178 domestic online games were approved, including titles from Baidu and Bilibili [8]. - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its oil production policy unchanged in the first quarter of next year [9]. Company News - Anta Sports is reportedly considering a bid for Puma, but has not commented on the speculation [10]. - Bosideng reported a mid-term net profit of 1.189 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3%, aligning with expectations [10]. - Luk Fook Holdings announced a mid-term net profit of 619 million yuan, up 42.5%, meeting profit guidance [10]. - UBTECH Robotics secured an order worth 143 million yuan for humanoid robots, bringing total orders for the year to 1.3 billion yuan [10]. - Vitasoy's mid-term profit fell by 68%, leading to a dividend cut [10]. - DYNAM JAPAN reported a mid-term net profit of 3.072 billion yen, an increase of 40.3% [10]. - Alibaba and ByteDance are training AI models overseas to circumvent US export restrictions, utilizing Nvidia chips [10].

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 11 月 272012 日星期四 -01-17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指短期支持參考 25,000 點關口：聯儲局 10 月再次鷹派減息，2026 年 減息空間少於預期。官員意見分歧，減息路徑未明。中美元首 10 月會面 取得成果，美方取消 10%芬太尼關稅，暫停一年 24%對等關稅。兩國緊 張局勢暫時緩和，核心矛盾延後解決。內地第三季經濟進一步降溫，十五 五規劃提出擴大內需及促進科技自立自強，方向符合預期。但短期政策加 碼訊號欠奉，港股企業盈利難有明顯改善。加上近期美國科技股趨向波動， AI 產業鏈估值惹關注，而港股年內至今累積升幅較大，年底獲利誘因較 大。恒指短期支持參考 25,000 點關口。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 中國 10 月工業利潤； 六福集團(0590)、力勁科技(0558)、波司登(3998)等業績； 宏觀焦點 ➢ 特朗普：習近平已同意 加快採購美國農產品； 美國延長與中國技術轉移調查相關的關稅豁免期限； 美國防部據報指阿里巴巴、百度、比亞迪等應被列入「中國軍事企業 名單」； 聯儲局褐皮書:美政府關門對消費市場產生負面影響； 企業消息 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index has short-term support at the 25,000 point level, with recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve indicating limited rate cut space in 2026. The meeting between the US and Chinese leaders in October has temporarily eased tensions, but the core issues remain unresolved. The Chinese economy showed further signs of cooling in Q3, with the 14th Five-Year Plan focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance, aligning with expectations. However, there are no strong signals for short-term policy adjustments, making it difficult for Hong Kong stocks to see significant earnings improvements. The recent volatility in US tech stocks and concerns over AI industry valuations add to the profit-taking incentives as the Hang Seng Index has seen substantial gains this year [2][3]. Macro Focus - Hong Kong's exports in October increased by 17.5%, surpassing expectations, following a 16.1% rise in September. The total export value reached HKD 461.8 billion, while imports rose by 18.3% to HKD 501.7 billion, leading to a trade deficit of HKD 39.9 billion [8]. - The US PPI rose by 0.3% in September, driven by higher energy costs, indicating a resurgence in inflation. Retail sales in the US for September increased by only 0.2%, significantly below expectations, with auto sales being a major drag [8][9]. - The Chinese gaming market saw a revenue increase of 7.8% year-on-year in October, with mobile games contributing significantly to this growth [8]. Company News - Alibaba (9988) reported a 72% year-on-year decline in adjusted net profit for Q2, attributed to investments in instant retail, although its cloud business showed strong growth with a 34% revenue increase. The company faces supply chain challenges in AI server components, which may continue for the next two to three years [10]. - JD.com (9618) denied rumors of issuing exchangeable bonds worth at least USD 1 billion, clarifying that discussions are still in the early stages [10]. - Zhihu (2390) reported a widened adjusted loss of RMB 21 million for Q3, with total revenue declining by 22.02% year-on-year [10]. - Vitasoy (0345) saw a slight increase in half-year profit by 0.7% to HKD 170 million, despite a 6.3% drop in revenue due to weak market conditions in mainland China [10]. - Tuniu (0780) reported a 16.5% increase in adjusted net profit for Q3, with revenue rising by 10.4% [10]. - Chow Tai Fook (1929) reported a 0.2% increase in half-year profit to HKD 2.534 billion, with same-store sales in mainland China growing by 38.8% [10].

阿里巴巴(9988)、周大福(1929)、同程旅行(0780)等業績； 宏觀焦點 ➢ 習近平、特朗普通電話 特朗普：已接受邀請明年4月訪華； 美國總統特朗普下令啟動AI「創世紀計劃」； 美商務部長：特朗普正評估是否批准向中國出售Nvidia H200晶片； 聯儲理事沃勒：主要擔心勞動力市場，主張12月降息； 企業消息 每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 11 月 252012 日星期二 -01-17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指短期支持參考 25,000 點關口：聯儲局 10 月再次鷹派減息，2026 年 減息空間少於預期。官員意見分歧，減息路徑未明。中美元首 10 月會面 取得成果，美方取消 10%芬太尼關稅，暫停一年 24%對等關稅。兩國緊 張局勢暫時緩和，核心矛盾延後解決。內地第三季經濟進一步降溫，十五 五規劃提出擴大內需及促進科技自立自強，方向符合預期。但短期政策加 碼訊號欠奉，港股企業盈利難有明顯改善。加上近期美國科技股趨向波動， AI 產業鏈估值惹關注，而港股年內至今累積升幅較大，年底獲利誘因較 大。恒指短期支持參考 25,000 點關口。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 美國 9 月 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to find short-term support around the 100-day moving average at approximately 25,600 points due to a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve and ongoing uncertainties in the US-China trade relations [2] - The recent meeting between the US and Chinese leaders has led to a temporary easing of tensions, but core issues remain unresolved [2] - China's economic slowdown in Q3 has prompted the government to focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance [2] Macro Focus - China is reportedly considering new support policies for the real estate sector, including interest subsidies for housing loans [4][10] - The government has announced a maximum funding of 400 million yuan to support 50 cities in developing new consumption models [10] - The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.4% [10] Corporate News - NetEase reported a 27% increase in adjusted profit for Q3, meeting expectations, but revenue growth of 8% fell short [5][11] - ByteDance's valuation has reportedly risen to $480 billion following a competitive auction for shares [11] - Xiaomi has produced its 500,000th vehicle in just 19 months, marking a significant milestone for the company [11] Sector Insights - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from strong investment returns in Q3 due to robust A-share performance [9] - Coal stocks are anticipated to see upward price momentum for thermal coal [9] - Lithium industry stocks are optimistic about a recovery in lithium carbonate demand, with supply and demand expected to balance [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to find short-term support around the 100-day moving average at approximately 25,600 points due to uncertainties in U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions [2][4][6] - The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% interest rate cut in October, lowering the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, but future cuts remain uncertain as many officials believe further reductions may not be necessary [4][9] Company Performance - ZTO Express reported a 5% increase in net profit for Q3, but lowered its full-year business volume guidance, indicating challenges in the logistics sector [4][10] - Lenovo Group's interim profit rose by 41%, driven by strong demand for AI-related products, with AI revenue accounting for nearly 30% of total revenue [10] - Kuaishou's adjusted profit increased by 26% in Q3, with AI revenue exceeding 300 million RMB, reflecting growth in online marketing and live streaming services [10] - Kingsoft's Q3 profit fell by 48%, primarily due to a significant drop in revenue from online games, despite growth in office software and services [10] Industry Insights - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from strong investment returns in A-shares during Q3 [7] - The coal sector anticipates upward price momentum for thermal coal [7] - The lithium industry is optimistic about a recovery in lithium carbonate demand, with supply and demand expected to balance [7] - The Chinese toy retail market is projected to exceed 100 billion RMB this year, driven by the popularity of collectible toys [8] Economic Indicators - China's one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively, aligning with market expectations [8] - The U.S. job market shows signs of slowing, with rising unemployment rates, although they remain relatively low [4][9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to find short-term support around the 100-day moving average at approximately 25,600 points due to a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve and ongoing uncertainties in the US-China trade relations [2] - The recent meeting between the US and Chinese leaders has led to a temporary easing of tensions, but core issues remain unresolved [2] Company News - Xiaomi Group (1810) reported an adjusted profit increase of 81% in the last quarter, exceeding expectations, and its electric vehicle business recorded operational profitability [5] - Baidu Group (9888) disclosed a 36% decline in adjusted profit but reported a 50% growth in AI business revenue [5] - Pinduoduo's adjusted net profit rose by 14% in the third quarter, although management warned of ongoing financial volatility [5] - China Hongqiao (1378) saw its controlling shareholder increase their stake to 64.02% by purchasing shares worth approximately 230 million [5] - GBM Resources, an Australian mining company, plans a secondary listing in Hong Kong [5] Macroeconomic Focus - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong has decreased to 3.8%, lower than expected, with significant declines in various economic sectors [10] - Macau's GDP grew by 4.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a notable increase in inbound tourists [10] - The Chinese government aims to establish around 200 high-standard digital parks by 2027, enhancing digital transformation across industries [9] - A report indicates that China is increasingly lending to high-income countries, with the US being the largest recipient of Chinese loans [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faced resistance at 27,381 points due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts, with expectations for 2026 cuts being lower than anticipated [2] - The recent meeting between the US and Chinese leaders resulted in a temporary easing of tensions, with the US suspending certain tariffs [2] - China's economy showed further signs of cooling in Q3, prompting a focus on domestic demand and technological self-reliance as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] Company News - Alibaba's Qianwen App faced service interruptions during its public testing due to high user influx, marking its entry into the AI consumer market [8] - JD.com announced the launch of an independent app for its food delivery service, with a commitment to non-commercialization of its review platform [8] - Huawei is set to launch its Mate80 series and Mate X7 on November 25, indicating a significant product release [8] - XPeng Motors reported a narrowed adjusted loss of 150 million RMB in Q3, with delivery forecasts falling short of expectations [8] - Li Auto turned a profit of 150 million RMB in Q3, exceeding sales targets [8] - Trip.com Group's Q3 net profit surged 1.9 times year-on-year, driven by strong international business performance [8] Industry Insights - The Chinese automotive industry saw a significant increase in new energy vehicle exports, doubling year-on-year in October [7] - The cosmetics regulatory reform aims to enhance quality and safety standards by 2030, promoting industry innovation [7] - The silk industry is set for development with a focus on creating leading enterprises and enhancing export quality by 2028 [7] - The organic silicon industry is expected to discuss production cuts in an upcoming meeting, indicating potential supply adjustments [7] Financial Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,384, down 0.71% with a year-to-date increase of 31.53% [4] - Trip.com Group reported a net income of 19.89 billion RMB for Q3, reflecting a 15.53% year-on-year increase [8] - XPeng Motors' total revenue reached 20.38 billion RMB, marking a 102% year-on-year increase [8] - Li Auto's revenue for Q3 was 19.45 billion RMB, with a significant increase in vehicle deliveries [8] - Geely's Q3 profit rose by 59% year-on-year, with total revenue increasing by 26.35% [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faces resistance at 27,381 points due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts, with expectations for cuts in 2026 being lower than anticipated [2] - Recent U.S.-China relations have seen a temporary easing, with the U.S. canceling a 10% tariff on fentanyl and pausing a 24% reciprocal tariff for a year, although core issues remain unresolved [2] - The Chinese economy showed further signs of cooling in Q3, prompting a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] Company News - Hillhouse Capital has significantly increased its holdings in Pinduoduo and Alibaba while reducing its stake in NetEase and completely exiting positions in JD.com and Li Auto [4] - Pop Mart is reportedly collaborating with Sony Pictures to produce a film based on its Labubu character [4] - Mindray Medical has seen a notable increase in its stock price, reflecting strong market performance [4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% interest rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, and plans to end balance sheet reduction in December [4] - The Hong Kong economy grew by 3.8% in Q3, leading to an upward revision of the full-year growth forecast to 3.2% [9] - China's industrial output and fixed asset investment data for October fell short of expectations, while retail sales slightly exceeded forecasts [8][9] Sector Focus - The insurance sector in China has benefited from strong A-share performance, leading to improved investment returns in Q3 [7] - Coal stocks are expected to see upward price momentum for thermal coal [7] - The semiconductor industry faces challenges, with SMIC warning of memory shortages impacting the automotive and mobile sectors next year [7] Regulatory Developments - The Chinese government has released draft guidelines for antitrust compliance in internet platforms, addressing issues such as unfair pricing and "choose one from two" practices [8] - The Ministry of Finance emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period to support domestic market development [8]