每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2026 年 2 月 25 日星期三 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指料守 26,000 點：美國總統特朗普去年對多國徵收緊急關稅，遭到最 高法院推翻，但相信特朗普很大機會透過其他途徑再對外加徵關稅，以維 持原先強硬貿易政策立場，並在 3 月訪華前爭取談判籌碼。3 月企業陸續 公布業績，需留意商品價格上漲，或為企業盈利帶來壓力。AI 高速發展顛 覆企業營運模式，科網股股價走勢兩極化，重磅平台龍頭動力不足，拖累 科指續尋底，亦牽制大市上升空間。AI 行情變化如新品發布、技術升級， 以及平台龍頭在業績期對資本開支、競爭格局的表態，料為短期市場焦點。 全國兩會將於 3 月 4、5 日舉行，有關經濟增長目標、赤字率等細節公布， 以及會前政策預期升溫，有望為港股提供支持，恒指料守 26,000 點。 短期看好板塊 AI 股：AI 大模型密集升級，半導體行業高速增長 智能眼鏡：OpenAI 據報擬推 AI 智能硬件包括智能眼鏡 今日市場焦點 香港第四季GDP、財政預算案； 匯豐控股(0005)及攜程集團(9961)業績； 宏觀焦點 外圍市況展望 美聯儲1月維持利率不變， ...

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2026 年 2 月 24 日星期二 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指料守 26,000 點：聯儲局主席人選出爐，沃什被視為鷹派，美匯指數 反彈，促使商品市場平倉。內地方面，2026 年為十五五規劃開局之年， 市場預期第一季政策發力，落實擴內需、科技自主、反內卷等重點工作。 然而，兩會前內地處於政策真空期，地方兩會初步數字顯示，不少省份下 調 GDP 目標，市場預期內地或將今年 GDP 增長目標設在 4.5%-5%，低 於 2025 年約 5%的目標。另外，監管層出手為市場降溫，滬深北交易所 提高融資保證金比例，三市集體減槓桿，加上國家隊正在減持，ETF 規模 下滑。近日內地將部分電信服務增值稅稅率上調，引發投資者憂慮其他行 業跟隨，限制港股的上升動力，恒指短期支持參考 26,000 點。 短期看好板塊 AI 股：AI 大模型密集升級，半導體行業高速增長 李芷瑩 edith.li@cinda.com.hk 陳樂怡 tracy.chan@cinda.com.hk 葛雨晴 may.ge@cinda.com.hk | 各國指數 | 收市價 | | 變動% 年初至今 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to be constrained by this year's high of 28,056 points due to the hawkish stance of the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman and a rebound in the US dollar index, which has led to profit-taking in the commodity market [2] - The Chinese government is anticipated to focus on expanding domestic demand and technological self-sufficiency in the first quarter of 2026, as it marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan [2] - There is a policy vacuum in China ahead of the Two Sessions, with many provinces lowering their GDP growth targets, leading to expectations of a GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% for 2026, down from approximately 5% in 2025 [2] Company News - Alphabet is expected to raise $32 billion through a rare issuance of century bonds in GBP [4] - Alibaba has launched the RynnBrain model, which aims to give robots a "thinking brain" [4] - Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC reported a 61% increase in profits last quarter, exceeding revenue guidance [4] - WuXi Biologics has issued a profit warning, expecting a 46% increase in profits for the previous year [4] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in January, aligning with market expectations, and expressed a positive outlook on economic activity, indicating a cautious approach to future rate adjustments based on economic data [4] - Recent economic data has shown resilience, which may limit the scope for interest rate cuts in the near term [4] - Geopolitical tensions have led to a rebound in oil prices, although an oversupply situation is expected to limit the upward movement of international oil prices [4] Sector Focus - The travel sector is experiencing strong demand as the Lunar New Year approaches [7] - The AI sector is seeing rapid growth due to intensive upgrades in AI models, benefiting the semiconductor industry [7] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector continues to see significant licensing deals and ongoing international expansion [7] Macro Focus - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to support economic growth and stabilize prices [8] - The central bank aims to maintain liquidity and financing conditions that align with economic growth and price level expectations [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to hold at 26,000 points, with the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance influencing market dynamics and leading to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index [2] - The Chinese government is anticipated to focus on expanding domestic demand and technological self-sufficiency in 2026, with GDP growth targets expected to be set between 4.5% and 5% [2] - Regulatory measures are being implemented to cool the market, including increased financing margin ratios and a reduction in leverage across major exchanges [2] Company News - Alphabet plans to issue high-rated U.S. bonds to raise approximately $15 billion, continuing the trend of significant debt issuance among companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure [4][10] - Alibaba's Gaode Dache has been summoned by the Ministry of Transport due to issues related to price management and operational oversight [4][10] - BYD has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government seeking the return of all tariffs imposed [4] - Hong Kong Telecom reported a 4% increase in profit for the previous year, with a dividend of 47.97 cents [4] Sector Focus - The travel sector is expected to see strong demand as the Lunar New Year approaches, with an estimated 2,200 inbound tours from mainland China to Hong Kong, involving around 86,000 visitors [9] - The semiconductor industry is projected to experience significant growth driven by strong demand for AI technologies [7] - The logistics sector in China reported a total logistics volume of 368.2 trillion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [8] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in January, indicating a cautious approach to future adjustments based on economic data [5] - The international oil market is expected to face upward pressure on prices due to geopolitical factors, despite an oversupply situation [5] - The Chinese central bank is expected to inject liquidity into the market ahead of the Lunar New Year, with estimates suggesting a liquidity gap of over 3 trillion yuan [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to hold at 26,000 points, influenced by the hawkish stance of the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair and a rebound in the US dollar index, which has led to profit-taking in the commodity market [2] - The Chinese government is anticipated to focus on expanding domestic demand and technological self-sufficiency in the first quarter of 2026, as it marks the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - There is a projected GDP growth target for China in 2026 set between 4.5% and 5%, lower than the approximately 5% target for 2025, with many provinces lowering their GDP targets ahead of the Two Sessions [2] Sector Focus - Macau gaming stocks are viewed positively due to January's gambling revenue exceeding expectations, with the upcoming Spring Festival serving as a catalyst for growth [3] Corporate News - Syngenta, a subsidiary of China National Chemical Corporation, plans to raise up to $10 billion in an IPO in Hong Kong, potentially becoming one of the largest IPOs globally [5] - Lanke Technology has priced its shares at 106.89 HKD, aiming to raise 7 billion HKD [5] - Meituan is set to acquire a fresh food e-commerce business for $717 million [5] - NIO is expected to report an adjusted operating profit of over 700 million RMB for the last quarter [5] - MGM China anticipates an adjusted EBITDAR increase of nearly 11% by 2025 [5] Macro Focus - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in January, indicating a positive outlook on economic activity, while suggesting a cautious approach to future rate adjustments based on economic data [6] - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both kept interest rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations [6] - China's logistics industry maintained an expansionary stance with a logistics prosperity index of 51.2 in January [8] - The Chinese commodity price index rose by 6.3% month-on-month in January, marking a three-and-a-half-year high [8] Industry Insights - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is expected to see a significant decline in new installed capacity in 2026, with estimates ranging from 180 to 240 GW, a decrease of 23.8% to 42.9% from the previous year's record [8] - China's gold consumption is projected to decline to 950.1 tons in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.57%, while production is expected to increase by over 1% [8] - The Chinese market is experiencing a significant shortage of memory chips, prompting major PC manufacturers like HP and Dell to consider sourcing from Chinese manufacturers [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to hold at 26,000 points, influenced by the hawkish stance of the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman and a rebound in the US dollar index, which has led to market adjustments in commodities [2] - The Chinese GDP growth target for 2026 is anticipated to be set between 4.5% and 5%, lower than the previous target of around 5% for 2025, as local governments have begun to lower their GDP targets ahead of the Two Sessions [2] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to cool the market, including increased financing margin ratios on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, which has led to a collective reduction in leverage across the three markets [2] Sector Focus - Macau gaming stocks are favored in the short term due to January's gambling revenue exceeding expectations, with the upcoming Spring Festival serving as a catalyst for growth [3] Macro Focus - China's January RatingDog services PMI rose to 52.3, indicating an acceleration in service sector expansion, with new export orders showing strong growth [7] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to support domestic demand and technological innovation in its 2026 credit market work [7] - The US ADP reported a lower-than-expected increase of 22,000 private sector jobs in January, indicating potential labor market weaknesses [7] Company News - Walden Materials (9981) is launching an IPO to raise approximately HKD 28 billion, with a share price capped at HKD 20.09 [9] - Baidu Group (9888) plans to repurchase USD 5 billion in shares and will announce its first dividend this year [9] - Meituan (3690) and Tencent (0700) are taking measures to regulate promotional activities on their platforms, reflecting a tightening of marketing practices [9] - BYD (1211) reported a tenfold increase in electric vehicle sales in Germany, significantly outperforming Tesla [9] - Tesla (TSLA.US) saw a 9.3% increase in electric vehicle sales in China but a 57% drop in the UK market [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has a short-term support reference at 26,000 points, with expectations for policy initiatives in the first quarter of 2026 focusing on expanding domestic demand and achieving technological self-reliance [2] - Despite geopolitical instability affecting risk appetite, the upgrade of AI large models is driving financing activities in the industry, supporting the AI market [2] - The HSI reached a high of 27,381 points but faced downward pressure due to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, with initial support seen at 26,000 points [2] Sector Outlook - Macau gaming stocks are favored due to January's gambling revenue exceeding expectations, with the upcoming Spring Festival expected to act as a catalyst [3] Company News - InnoCare Pharma (2577) signed a compliance supply agreement with Google [5] - Pony.ai (2026) expects a narrowing of losses for the previous year, with growth in investment fair value gains [5] - Tianqi Lithium (9696) plans to raise over 5.8 billion yuan through a 9% discounted share placement and convertible bonds to expand its lithium business [5] - HAP Pharmaceuticals (2142) anticipates a profit increase of at least 31 times for the previous year [5] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [9] - The central government's focus for 2026 includes agricultural technology and mechanisms for increasing farmers' income, emphasizing the integration of AI with agricultural development [9] - The retail sales value in Hong Kong for December rose by 6.6% year-on-year, although it fell short of market expectations [10] - The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for Hong Kong in January rose to 52.3, indicating a continued improvement in the business environment [10]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index showing short-term support around 26,000 points, driven by anticipated policy actions in mainland China and a strong performance in AI-related sectors [3][4] - The Macau gaming sector is expected to benefit from higher-than-expected January gaming revenue, with the upcoming Spring Festival acting as a catalyst for growth [4] - The report notes a significant increase in China's manufacturing PMI to 50.3 in January, indicating improved economic conditions and a potential boost in production and employment [8] Market Review - The Hang Seng Index experienced a decline, closing at 26,775 points, down 2.2%, with a trading volume of 347.9 billion [6] - The report mentions that despite geopolitical uncertainties affecting risk appetite, the AI sector remains robust, supporting market activity [3][6] Sector Focus - The Macau gaming stocks are highlighted as a sector with strong potential due to favorable revenue trends and seasonal demand [4] - The report indicates that the memory interconnect chip market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 27.4% from 2024 to 2030, with a leading market share of 36.8% held by a specific group [6] Economic Indicators - China's insurance industry is projected to see a 7.4% increase in premium income by 2025, reaching 6.12 trillion yuan [9] - The report discusses the anticipated growth in the new energy heavy truck market, with sales expected to increase by 182% in 2025 [10] - The report also notes that the new energy sector accounted for 97.1% of the total increase in electricity consumption in China, highlighting its growing importance [10]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to test the 27,000 point level as 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, with expectations for policy initiatives in the first quarter focusing on expanding domestic demand and achieving technological self-reliance [1] - Despite geopolitical instability affecting risk appetite, the upgrade of AI large models has led to a surge in financing activities within the industry, supporting the AI market [1][7] - The Hang Seng Index reached a high of 27,381 points, but recent developments regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership have led to a rebound in the US dollar index, suggesting a potential decline in the Hang Seng Index [1] Sector Focus - The market is currently focused on manufacturing purchasing manager indices (PMI) from China, Japan, the Eurozone, and the US for January [2] Corporate News - Xiaomi delivered over 39,000 vehicles in January, while sales of the SU7 Ultra model dropped significantly in December [4] - China National Aviation Holdings is expected to report a loss of 1.9 billion RMB for the previous year [5] - The telecommunications sector is facing revenue and profit impacts due to adjustments in the value-added tax scope, with major telecom companies like China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom indicating potential effects on their financials [10] Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in January, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4, the lowest in over three years [9] - The Chinese government is considering issuing special bonds to inject 200 billion RMB into leading insurance companies, marking a significant move to strengthen the sector [9] - The overall public budget revenue in China for 2025 is projected at 21.6 trillion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.7% [9] International Developments - OPEC+ has agreed to continue suspending production increases in March, following a similar decision in January [8] - The US PPI for final demand rose by 3% year-on-year in December, exceeding expectations, indicating inflationary pressures [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to challenge the 2025 high of 27,381 points, supported by the continuation of interest rate cuts in the US and increased monetary policy easing in mainland China [2] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to see policy implementation focusing on expanding domestic demand and achieving technological self-reliance [2] - Despite geopolitical instability affecting risk appetite, a significant decline in the US dollar index is favorable for emerging markets, alongside a robust financing activity in the AI sector [2] Corporate News - Ganfeng Lithium (1772) has issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit between 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion RMB [4] - Cao Cao Mobility (2643) plans to raise 389 million RMB through a share placement at an 8.97% discount [4] - Haifeng International (1308) anticipates a 16%-19% increase in annual profits due to increased container throughput [4] - Dongfang Securities (3958) forecasts a 67.8% increase in net profit for 2025, reaching 5.62 billion RMB [10] - China Merchants Securities (6099) reported an 18% increase in net profit for the previous year, amounting to 12.3 billion RMB [10] - Shenwan Hongyuan (6806) expects a significant profit increase of 74.6%-93.8% for 2025, with net profit projected between 9.1 billion to 10.1 billion RMB [10] Economic Indicators - China's industrial profits increased by 0.6% in 2025, totaling 7.398 trillion RMB, with state-owned enterprises seeing a 3.9% decline in profits [8] - The People's Bank of China reported a 6.9% year-on-year increase in fixed asset loans by the end of Q4 2025, with total loans reaching 271.91 trillion RMB [8] - Hong Kong's exports rose by 26.1% and imports by 30.6% in December 2025, both exceeding expectations [8] AI Sector Developments - The AI sector is experiencing a surge in financing activities, driven by advancements in large AI models [7] - QuestMobile reported that Baidu's Wenxin Assistant has become the largest AI application in China, with over 200 million monthly active users [10] - Alibaba continues to invest heavily in AI and cloud services, aiming to optimize its capital structure and attract diverse funding [10]