每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 11 月 172012 日星期一 -01-17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 高瓴上季大手增持拼多多、阿里等，減持網易，清倉京東、理想等； 企業消息 Labubu上大銀幕，泡泡瑪特(9992)據報夥索尼影業拍電影； 敏華控股(1999)中期盈利微升，息維持15仙； 外圍市況展望 美國聯儲局10月宣布減息0.25厘，聯邦基金利率目標區間下調至3.75% 至4.00%，符合預期，並決定自12月起結束縮表。不過，主席鮑威爾表 示，12月再次減息並非板上釘釘的事，局內委員會分歧大，部分成員認 為需暫停減息以評估政策影響。議息聲明提到，現有指標顯示經濟活動 正以溫和速度擴張，經濟前景不確定仍高企。近數個月就業面臨的下行 風險增加，今年就業增長已經放緩，失業率略有上升，但截至8月仍保持 在較低水平。我們認為聯儲局10月再次鷹派減息，局內意見不一，進一 步減息空間存不確定性，後續關注年內通脹、就業數據以及12月點陣圖 的更新。OPEC+宣布明年首季暫停增產，但供過於求格局料限制國際油 價上行空間。 恒指阻力參考 27,381 點：聯儲局 10 月再次鷹派減 ...

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 11 月 142012 日星期五 -01-17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指阻力參考 27,381 點：聯儲局 10 月再次鷹派減息，2026 年減息空間 少於預期。中美元首 10 月會面取得成果，美方取消 10%芬太尼關稅，暫 停一年 24%對等關稅。兩國緊張局勢暫時緩和，核心矛盾延後解決。內 地第三季經濟進一步降溫，十五五規劃提出擴大內需及促進科技自立自 強，方向符合預期，後續留意其他重要會議以跟進政策落地情況。基於短 期內港股企業盈利難有明顯改善，中美貿易戰局勢反覆，以及聯儲局減息 路徑未明，恒指短期阻力參考 10 月高位 27,381 點。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 中國 1-10 月固投、工業、零售；香港第三季 GDP； 首程控股(0697)、敏華控股(1999)等業績； 宏觀焦點 ➢ 內地10月新增貸款2200億元人民幣，遜預期； 內地多家中小銀行中長期定存產品密集下架； 報道指抵制低價「內捲」，內地多家矽片企業聯合挺價； 特朗普簽署臨時撥款法案，結束聯邦政府停擺； 企業消息 ➢ 騰訊控股(0700)第三季經調整盈利升18%，勝預期； 京東集團( ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faces resistance at 27,381 points due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts, with expectations for fewer cuts in 2026 than previously anticipated [2] - The recent meeting between the US and Chinese leaders has eased tensions temporarily, with the US suspending a 10% tariff on fentanyl for one year [2] - China's third-quarter economic performance has further cooled, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance [2] Sector Focus - The total online retail sales during the "Double 11" shopping festival in 2025 are projected to reach approximately 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [8] - The banking sector is reportedly offering loans to businesses and individuals to meet lending targets, indicating a slowdown in effective loan demand [8] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from strong investment returns in the third quarter due to robust performance in the A-share market [7] Company News - Tencent Music's adjusted profit for the third quarter increased by 32%, surpassing expectations, with total revenue reaching 8.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 20.64% [10] - Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC is reportedly prioritizing chip distribution to meet the demands of major companies like Huawei amid ongoing supply shortages [10] - Foxconn's third-quarter net profit rose by 17% to 57.673 billion NTD, driven by increased shipments of Apple iPhones and AI servers [9] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% interest rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, with further cuts remaining uncertain due to internal disagreements [4] - The global dividend payout in the third quarter reached a record high of 94 billion USD in Hong Kong, with a core growth rate of 15.4% [8] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil consumption may continue to grow until 2050, with a projected increase of 13% [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate around 26,000 points due to a hawkish interest rate outlook from the Federal Reserve and ongoing uncertainties in the US-China trade situation [2] - The third quarter economic data from mainland China indicates further cooling, prompting a focus on policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance [2] Company Updates - JD Group reported record sales during the Double 11 shopping festival, with a 40% increase in the number of ordering users and nearly a 60% rise in order volume [9] - Hesai Technology turned a profit of 260 million RMB in the third quarter, raising its full-year profit guidance [9] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited invested 455 million HKD to acquire a 20% stake in Xunqing Clearing Holdings [9] - Ant Group's investment in Yao Cai Securities has not met completion conditions, potentially extending the final deadline [9] - Innovative Industry plans to raise approximately 700 million USD through an IPO [9] Industry Insights - The manufacturing sector in mainland China is accelerating the construction of pilot platforms, focusing on AI and robotics [6] - The People's Bank of China is set to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery and enhance the bond market [7] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that in October, the sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 50% of total vehicle sales for the first time [8] - The third quarter saw a 17.8% increase in the shipment of foldable smartphones in China, indicating a recovery in the market [8] - The domestic excavator sales grew by 2.44% year-on-year in October, with a total of 18,096 units sold [8]

市場回顧 每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 11 月 112012 日星期二 -01-17 中港股市短期展望 恒指 26,000 點上落：聯儲局 10 月再次鷹派減息，2026 年減息空間少於 預期。中美元首 10 月會面取得成果，美方取消 10%芬太尼關稅，暫停一 年 24%對等關稅。兩國緊張局勢暫時緩和，核心矛盾延後解決。內地第 三季經濟進一步降溫，十五五規劃提出擴大內需及促進科技自立自強，方 向符合預期，後續留意其他重要會議以跟進政策落地情況。基於短期內港 股企業盈利難有明顯改善，中美貿易戰局勢反覆，以及聯儲局減息路徑未 明，恒指料於 26,000 點上落。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 騰訊音樂－ＳＷ(1698)、禾賽－Ｗ(2525)等業績； 宏觀焦點 ➢ 何立峰：全面實施「AI+」行動 前瞻布局未來產業； 發改委、能源局出台新能源消納和調控指導意見 助力碳達峰； 內地民企准投資宇航等特定基建 涉鐵路核電低空經濟建設 持股可 逾10%； 特朗普稱支持參議院撥款法案形容協議非常好 美眾議院據報最快 明日就臨時撥款表決； 銷售不如預期 蘋果據報推遲發布下一代iPhone Air； 企業消息 ➢ ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate around 26,000 points due to a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve and ongoing uncertainties in the US-China trade relations [2] - The third quarter economic data from mainland China indicates further cooling, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance [2] Macro Focus - The Federal Reserve's direction for December rate cuts remains uncertain, with concerns about inflation among next year's voting members [4] - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4%, with expectations for a potential rate cut in December [10] - Japan's major labor union is pushing for a 6% wage increase in the upcoming negotiations [10] Company News - Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347) reported a 43% decline in profit for the last quarter, but its fourth-quarter gross margin guidance exceeded expectations [11] - Uni-President China (0220) achieved a net profit of 2.01 billion RMB in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [11] - Da Jia Le (0341) anticipates a 65-70% drop in half-year profit due to a challenging market environment [11] - Great Wall Entertainment (1060) expects its mid-term net profit to exceed 500 million RMB, driven by strong performance in its Aliyu business [11] - Xiaomi (1810) has seen a 53% increase in short positions from institutional clients, indicating a bearish sentiment towards the stock [11] - Nissan (7201.JP) is selling its Yokohama headquarters for over $600 million as part of a 20-year leaseback agreement [11] - Xpeng Motors (2026) aims to achieve positive free cash flow by 2028, contingent on fleet expansion [11] - New World Development (0200) reported a 1.7 times increase in net income for the last quarter, attributed to improved performance in both gaming and non-gaming operations [11] Sector Insights - The insurance sector is benefiting from strong investment returns in the third quarter due to robust A-share performance [7] - AI concept stocks are gaining traction as mainland China accelerates the application of "Artificial Intelligence+" [7] - Coal stocks are expected to see upward price momentum for thermal coal [7]

Group 1: Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of Sensata Technologies (敏實集團) at a price of 39.00 HKD, with a target price of 45.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15.4% [2][13] - Sensata Technologies has seen a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.8% to 12.287 billion RMB in the first half of the year, with net profit increasing by 19.5% to 1.277 billion RMB [7][12] - The company is actively expanding into new sectors such as AI and robotics, with its battery box business experiencing a nearly 50% year-on-year increase in revenue [4][7] Group 2: Industry Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese government has suspended the 24% tariff on imports from the U.S. for one year, which is expected to positively impact trade relations [16] - The report notes that the AI sector in China is accelerating, with breakthroughs in chip development and increased applications of "Artificial Intelligence+" [5] - The report indicates that the coal sector is expected to see upward price momentum for thermal coal [5] Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - Sensata Technologies aims to achieve a revenue target of 82 billion RMB by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 23% from 2024 to 2030 [8] - The company has improved its free cash flow and reduced its debt ratio, indicating potential for an increase in its dividend payout ratio [10] - Market expectations for the fiscal years 2024 to 2027 project a compound annual growth rate of 14.2% for revenue and 18.2% for adjusted profit [11]

Core Insights - The report highlights a potential investment opportunity in China Coal Energy (1898.HK) with a target price of 13.80 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 20.3% from the current price of 11.47 HKD [10][15] - The overall market outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains cautious, with the Hang Seng Index expected to fluctuate around 26,000 points due to uncertainties in U.S. interest rate policies and ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions [2][7] Company Analysis - China Coal Energy reported a revenue of 110.58 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 21.2%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 11.18 billion RMB, down 28.5% [10][14] - The decline in profit for the third quarter was less severe than in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, attributed to lower unit sales costs and a slight recovery in coal prices [10][11] - The company has the potential to increase its dividend payout ratio or acquire assets to enhance profits, with a current dividend policy of at least 30% [12][13] Industry Insights - The coal price has shown signs of recovery from its lows, driven by regulatory measures aimed at stabilizing coal supply [11] - The report anticipates upward pressure on thermal coal prices, which could positively impact the profitability of coal companies in 2026 [8][11] - The AI sector is gaining momentum in China, with government support for AI applications in healthcare, which may create investment opportunities in related technology companies [4][19]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate around 26,000 points due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts and ongoing uncertainties in the US-China trade relations [1] - The third quarter economic performance in mainland China has further cooled, prompting a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Company News - Pony.ai (2026) has set its share offering price at HKD 139 [3] - Geely has acquired a 26.4% stake in Renault's Brazilian operations, allowing it to benefit from production and sales at the Brazilian factory [3] - Chow Tai Fook (1929) has adjusted prices for some gold products starting today [3] - Sa Sa International (0178) has issued a profit warning, expecting a mid-term profit increase of over 50% [3] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% interest rate cut, lowering the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, and plans to end balance sheet reduction starting December [4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,158 points, up 0.97%, with a trading volume of HKD 228.7 billion [5] - The manufacturing PMI in China fell to 50.6 in October, below expectations, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [7] Sector Focus - The insurance sector is seeing improved investment returns in Q3 due to strong performance in A-shares [6] - AI concept stocks are benefiting from accelerated applications of "Artificial Intelligence+" in mainland China, with breakthroughs in chip development [6] - Macau gaming stocks reported October gaming revenue exceeding expectations, reaching a nearly six-year monthly high [6] Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has launched the "FinTech 2030" initiative, focusing on over 40 projects across four key areas to enhance the financial technology landscape [8] - The Securities and Futures Commission has issued new guidelines to facilitate licensed virtual asset trading platforms, allowing them to merge trading instructions with affiliated overseas platforms [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate around 26,000 points due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts and ongoing uncertainties in the US-China trade relations [2][7] - The third quarter economic performance in mainland China has shown further cooling, prompting the government to focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance [2][4] Company Performance - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reported a quarterly profit of 100 billion RMB, while China Construction Bank (CCB) and Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) also showed profit increases of 4.2% and 3.7% respectively [12] - AIA Group's new business value rose by 25% in the last quarter, reaching a record high for Q3, driven by growth in markets including Hong Kong and mainland China [12] - China Life Insurance's new business value increased by nearly 42% in the first three quarters, with a significant profit growth of 91.5% in Q3 [12] - China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) reported a 12% decline in profit for the third quarter, reflecting challenges in the oil market [5][12] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, with indications that further cuts are uncertain [5][7] - The G7 is planning to establish a critical minerals alliance to counter China's dominance in key sectors such as AI and electric vehicles [10][12] - The People's Bank of China is accelerating the implementation of policies related to "Artificial Intelligence + Finance" to enhance the digital transformation of the financial sector [10][12] Sector Focus - The insurance sector in mainland China is seeing improved investment returns due to strong performance in the A-share market [8] - The AI sector is experiencing rapid advancements, particularly in chip development, as the government promotes the application of AI technologies [8][10]