Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the China-U.S. trade negotiations, with a temporary reduction in tariffs but no long-term agreement in sight [2][6] - The Hang Seng Index is expected to face resistance at 24,700 points, reflecting a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The report indicates a stable performance from the shopping center management company, with a projected annual dividend of no less than 13.0 HKD cents over the next three years [5][9] Company-Specific Insights - The company is recognized as a leading shopping center management enterprise in the Greater Bay Area, with a stable operational background linked to a private real estate firm [5][9] - The same-store sales growth for the company's shopping centers is recorded at 8.8% for 2024 and 5-6% for the first five months of 2025, driven by strong consumer demand from Hong Kong residents [5][9] - The company's entrusted management business has shown stable performance, contributing 66.2% to total revenue and 73.9% to gross profit in 2024, despite a slight decline in gross margin [5][9] - The brand and management output business faces downward pressure, with a reduction in project numbers from 63 to 34 between 2021 and 2024, impacting revenue significantly [5][9] - The company maintains a healthy cash flow, with a net cash position of 1.37 billion RMB, which supports its dividend distribution plan [5][9] Industry Insights - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from increased domestic demand initiatives, including the continuation of trade-in subsidies [6] - The gold mining sector is influenced by geopolitical tensions, with central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves [6] - The report notes that Hong Kong's exports have increased by 15.5% year-on-year, marking 15 consecutive months of growth, driven by strong demand from Asia [10]

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指受制 24,700 點：中美在 5 月中旬於瑞士日內瓦經貿會談後發布聯合 聲明，雙方降低加徵關稅，互相保留加徵 10%關稅，美國對中國進口貨 品關稅將由 145%降至 30%，中國對美國進口貨品將由 125%降至 10%， 為期 90 日。中美 6 月倫敦談判達框架協議，後續關注 90 日對等關稅寬 限期過後能否取得長期協議。以伊停火，惟其後雙方是否遵循協議，仍有 待觀察。中美貿談續缺乏進展，內地現階段加推經濟刺激方案的意願不大， 企業盈利改善有限，北水於高位流入速度放緩。恒指阻力料見於 24,700 點，相當於未來 12 個月預測市盈率 11 倍。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 美國首季 GDP、核心 PCE 指數； 宏觀焦點 ➢ 財政部：根據形勢變化 及時推出增量儲備政策； 港滙觸7.85弱方 金管局今晨承接94.2億港元沽盤； 鮑威爾:未來貿易協議或允許聯儲局考慮減息； 歐盟警告：即使特朗普實施基準關稅，仍將進行報復； 企業消息 ➢ 據報比亞迪(1211)部分產能取消夜班及減產 暫 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The recent US-China trade talks have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, with US tariffs on Chinese imports dropping from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to limited progress in trade negotiations and a lack of significant economic stimulus from mainland China [2] Macro Focus - The Chinese government is implementing measures to boost domestic consumption, including a 500 billion yuan loan for elderly care and support for the automotive industry through trade-in policies [3][7] - The approval of 158 domestic and imported games in June, including titles from Tencent and NetEase, indicates a positive trend for the gaming sector [8] - The US Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year [3][8] Company News - Wang Wang reported an 8.6% increase in annual profit to 4.335 billion yuan, with a reduction in dividend payout to 2.04 US cents [9] - Vitasoy's annual profit doubled to 240 million yuan, with a final dividend of 10.2 cents, reflecting a 32% increase [9] - Meituan is exiting unprofitable regions in its community group-buying business, focusing on Guangdong and Zhejiang, where it has achieved profitability [9] - Tencent's major shareholder Naspers is considering reducing its stake in Meituan to support its own food delivery business, iFood, in Brazil [9] Industry Insights - The automotive sector is seeing increased government support for electric vehicle consumption, with initiatives to promote trade-in programs for old vehicles [6][7] - The gold mining sector is benefiting from geopolitical tensions, with central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves [6] - The recent surge in container throughput at Chinese ports indicates a strong export performance ahead of potential tariff increases from the US [7]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 23,000 to 24,000 points due to a series of financial policies introduced in mainland China to stabilize the market and expectations, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [1] - The U.S. and China have agreed to lower tariffs, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China reducing tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [1] Sector Outlook - Gold mining stocks are favored in the short term due to geopolitical tensions and central banks continuing to increase their gold holdings [2] Corporate News - Alibaba (9988) has integrated its food delivery platform Ele.me and travel platform Fliggy into its e-commerce business group, aiming for a strategic upgrade towards a comprehensive consumer platform [3][12] - Meituan (3690) is expanding its instant retail business, enhancing its supply chain digitalization capabilities and aiming to cover all first and second-tier cities [3][12] - BYD (1211) is reported to be providing rebates to dealers, with the scale expected to exceed 1 billion RMB [3] - China Hongqiao (1378) anticipates a 35% increase in net profit for the first half of the year due to product price increases [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% in 2025, while the inflation outlook remains uncertain [4] - China's land sales revenue fell to 194.1 billion RMB in May, the lowest in a decade, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market [10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China aims to increase gold resource volume by 5%-10% and silver production by over 5% by 2027 [10] IPO and Investment Climate - Hong Kong's IPO fundraising is expected to reach nearly 80 billion HKD this year, placing it among the top globally [11] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is preparing for potential interest rate increases as the Hong Kong dollar approaches its weak end of the trading band [10]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to test the June low of 22,668 points, influenced by a series of financial policies introduced in mainland China to stabilize the market, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The U.S. and China have agreed to lower tariffs, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports decreasing from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods dropping from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation has returned to a reasonable level, but rising geopolitical tensions may increase risk aversion among investors [2] Sector Focus - The report highlights a positive outlook for certain sectors, particularly in light of the U.S. manufacturing PMI data for June [3] Corporate News - Pop Mart (9992) has established a film studio to produce the animated series "Labubu and Friends" [5] - China Shenhua (1088) plans to maintain cash dividends of no less than 65% of net profit attributable to the parent company [5] - Union Pharmaceuticals (3933) received a $180 million advance payment from Novo Nordisk as part of an exclusive development agreement [5] - ZhongAn Online (6060) experienced a 3.8% reduction in shares held by Ant Group, raising approximately 655 million yuan [5] Macroeconomic Focus - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating reduced uncertainty in the economic outlook but acknowledging persistent inflation risks [4] - The report notes that the core PCE forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upward, with expectations of two rate cuts this year totaling 0.5 percentage points [4] - The report discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and various countries, with some progress noted but still subject to change [4] Economic Indicators - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,530 points, up 1.26% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.88% [7] - The report indicates that the consumer price index in Hong Kong rose by 1.9% year-on-year in May, lower than expected [10] - The report highlights that the Chinese retail sales during the "618" shopping festival increased by 15.2% year-on-year, with total sales reaching 855.6 billion yuan [10] Company Developments - Lens Technology is reportedly assessing investor interest in its Hong Kong listing, with a total revenue of 69.897 billion yuan last year, up 28.27% [12] - Weichai Power's subsidiary, Weichai Lovol, has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [12] - Kuaishou's e-commerce platform reported significant growth during the "618" shopping festival, with over 60% more merchants achieving sales exceeding 100 million yuan [12] - Douyin's e-commerce platform also reported that nearly 2,406 brands achieved sales exceeding 100 million yuan during the same period [12]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to test the June low of 22,668 points due to geopolitical tensions and rising risk aversion, despite recent financial policies from mainland China aimed at stabilizing the market [2] - The U.S. and China have agreed to reduce tariffs, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports dropping from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods decreasing from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation has returned to reasonable levels, but ongoing geopolitical tensions may lead to further declines [2] Sector Outlook - Gold mining stocks are favored in the short term due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and central banks continuing to increase their gold holdings [3] Company News - Sa Sa International (0178) reported a 65% decline in annual profits, while Oriental Watch Holdings (0398) saw a 20% drop in annual profits [5] - JD Group (9618) reported a more than doubling of user numbers for its 618 shopping event [7] - Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050) has set a price limit and increased its total fundraising to 9.3 billion HKD [7] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting a cautious stance on future inflation uncertainties [5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 203.5 billion RMB reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the interest rate at 1.4% [9] - Fitch Ratings predicts that Hong Kong will see the largest increase in non-performing loans in the Asia-Pacific region this year due to ongoing uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies [10] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,238, down 1.99% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.42% [5] - The CRB Commodity Index increased by 0.12% year-to-date, while gold prices rose by 0.05% [5] Regulatory Developments - The Chinese government has emphasized the need for accurate and truthful advertising in the new energy vehicle sector, prohibiting exaggerated claims [9] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has issued guidelines to prevent excessive competition in dividend insurance levels among insurance companies [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is constrained by the March high of 24,874 points, with expectations for new financial policies from mainland China to stabilize the market, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, but ongoing tensions may affect future agreements [2] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation has returned to reasonable levels, requiring significant positive developments in trade agreements and corporate earnings to maintain upward momentum [2] Sector Outlook - Gold mining stocks are favored due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and central banks continuing to increase their gold holdings [3] Macro Focus - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of innovation-driven development and expanding effective demand during his recent research trip [4] - The People's Bank of China announced eight significant financial policies aimed at enhancing the financial market and supporting offshore trade [8] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission introduced further reforms to enhance the inclusivity and adaptability of the capital market, particularly focusing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [8][9] Company News - JD Group reported better-than-expected growth in its food delivery business, with plans to launch six innovative projects [4] - Several companies, including AI startup Xiyu Technology, are planning to list in Hong Kong [4] International Market Outlook - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts later in the year, reflecting a cautious approach to inflation risks [4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, may impact market stability, while OPEC+ is expected to limit upward pressure on oil prices [4][6]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is constrained by the March high of 24,874 points, with expectations of new financial policies from mainland China to stabilize the market, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, but ongoing tensions remain, particularly with accusations from President Trump regarding China's compliance with agreements [2] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation has returned to reasonable levels, requiring significant positive developments in trade agreements and corporate earnings improvements to maintain upward momentum [2] Macro Focus - The Shanghai Lujiazui Forum is expected to announce a series of policies that could impact the financial sector [4][9] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 197.3 billion yuan, maintaining a rate of 1.4%, indicating a stable liquidity environment [9] - Foreign investment in domestic stocks has increased, with a net inflow of 33 billion USD in May, reflecting a stable economic outlook in China [9] - Hong Kong's unemployment rate has risen to 3.5%, the highest in two and a half years, with significant increases in the construction, retail, and real estate sectors [9] Company News - Haitan Flavor Industry (3288) has set its IPO price at 36.3 HKD, raising a total of approximately 10.1 billion HKD [11] - Yingtong Holdings (6883) has begun its IPO process, aiming to raise up to 1.1 billion HKD [11] - Chow Tai Fook (6168) has also initiated its IPO, targeting a maximum of 1.1 billion HKD [11] - Pop Mart (9992) has opened its second jewelry store in Beijing, with products selling out quickly, indicating strong consumer demand [11] - JD Group (9618) plans to enter the liquor and travel industry, reflecting diversification efforts [11] - Alibaba's Gaode Map has launched a taxi-hailing service in Macau, enhancing cross-border travel integration [11] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (0388) is optimistic about the return of Chinese companies to the Hong Kong market, citing strong liquidity and market capacity [11]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is constrained by the March high of 24,874 points, with expectations of new financial policies from mainland China to stabilize the market, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, with the US reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China reducing tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation has returned to a reasonable level, requiring significant positive developments in trade agreements and corporate earnings improvements to maintain upward momentum [2] Sector Focus - The focus is on US retail sales and Hong Kong's unemployment rate for May [3] - Chinese financial stocks are expected to perform well as mainland companies accelerate listings in Hong Kong [7] - Gold mining stocks are gaining attention due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and central banks increasing gold reserves [7] Economic Indicators - China's May retail sales exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, while industrial output and fixed asset investment fell short of expectations [9] - The average urban unemployment rate in China for May was reported at 5.0%, a slight decrease from the previous month [9] - The first five months of 2025 saw a 3.8% year-on-year decline in new residential property sales in China [9] Corporate News - Companies such as Cao Cao Travel are initiating IPOs, aiming to raise up to 1.85 billion yuan [7] - Haidilao is reportedly setting a price limit for its shares, while other companies are planning to list in Hong Kong [7] - The Hong Kong International Airport reported a 20% increase in passenger traffic in May, driven by a rise in transit and inbound travelers [10]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is constrained by the March high of 24,874 points, with expectations of new financial policies from mainland China to stabilize the market, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, with the US reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China reducing tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2] - The Hang Seng Index's valuation has returned to reasonable levels, requiring significant positive developments in trade agreements and corporate earnings improvements to maintain upward momentum [2] Short-term Sector Outlook - Focus on China's fixed asset investment, industrial output, and retail sales for January to May, as well as the performance of specific companies like Café de Coral Group [3] Macro Focus - In May, new loans in mainland China amounted to 620 billion RMB, falling short of expectations, with total new loans for the first five months reaching 10.68 trillion RMB [4][9] - The People's Bank of China reported a year-on-year increase of 7.9% in M2 money supply, while M1 increased by 2.3% [9] - The social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion RMB in May, with a cumulative increase of 18.63 trillion RMB for the first five months [9] Company News - Strategic research cooperation agreement established between CSPC Pharmaceutical Group and AstraZeneca [4] - WuXi Biologics' major shareholder reduced holdings at a discount, realizing 2.2 billion RMB [4] - Zijin Mining lowered production guidance for the Kakula copper mine, impacting this year's profits [4] International Market Outlook - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [4] - OPEC+ is increasing supply, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and limiting upward pressure on international oil prices [4] Technology Sector - Apple iPhone sales in China rose to first place in May, with a year-on-year global sales growth of 15% during April and May, marking the strongest performance since the pandemic [10]