行情回顾 周一（4 月 29 日），三大指数早盘震荡拉 分析师：景剑文 电话：0351-7219913 E—mail：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 国际局势变动引发市场扰动 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|------------|----------------------|-----------|-------|----------------------------------|-------|-------|-----------| | 主要指数 \n000001.SH | \n上证指数 | 日涨跌幅（%） \n0.79 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 重要指数日涨跌幅排行（%） \n3.18 | | | | | | | | 3.50 | | | | | | | 399001.SZ | 深证成指 | 2.22 | 3.00 2.50 | | 2.22 | | | | | 000300.SH | 沪深300 | 1.11 ...

证券研究报告 | 事件点评 紧抓政策落实,巩固回升态势 ● 紧抓已有政策的落实将是未来工作重心。本次会议肯定了今 年一季度国内经济工作取得的成绩,但对经济形势的评判更 加谨慎,并将宏观政策和扩大内需方面的表述重新提到新质 生产力之前,指向抓紧落实已有宏观政策将是未来工作的重 点,也是二季度经济乘势而上的重要保障。 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 具可能是未来配合财政发力的重要手段,同时能兼顾实体融 | 相关研究 | | 资成本的 ...

权益资产具备继续上行条件，黄金投资逻辑生变但趋势 不变 l 大类资产走势：债市承压、A 股上行，商品震荡。本周债市 出现下行趋势，各期国债收益率表现出上行趋势，债市牛市 遭受挑战，本周黄金也出现短暂回调，权益市场本周后期发 力，总体上行。 l 资本市场：三重利好或助推权益资产继续上行。政策面上， 打造"金融国家队"的政策影响叠加券商并购事件的影响， 同时综合表现下，中国权益资产的投资价值已经受到海外资 金的青睐。 l 权益市场：长期向好趋势不变，可适当增配成长风格类资产 大同证券研究中心 分析师：段进才 执业证书编号： http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 请仔细阅读报告最后的重要法律申明 第 1 页 共 8 页 （一）大类资产总体表现：A 股走强债市承压，商品震荡中上行 本周债市出现下行趋势，各期国债收益率表现出上行趋势，债券牛市遭受挑 战，本周黄金也出现短暂回调，权益市场本周后期发力，总体上行。 A 股本周前后表现不同的原因，一方面是外资在本周大幅流入，在当前美联 储降息预期持续偏弱和美债额度不断扩大的基础上，美元指数虽在走强，但是全 球对美元的信心及态度或产生走弱的倾向，同时欧洲局部战争导致地 ...

证券研究报告——市场日报 周五（4 月 19 日），三大指数早盘低开， 窄幅震荡，全天走弱。截至收盘，上证指数（- 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 电话：0351-7219913 E—mail：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 级行业多数下跌，石油石化、国防军工、基础 风险提示 金 156 亿份。（消息来源：东方财富） 伊朗多地传出爆炸声 疑遭以色列"有限度"空袭报复。据美国广播公司（ABC）当地时间 18 日报道，一名美国官员向美国广播公司新闻证实，以色列导弹击中了伊朗境内的一处地点。 该官员无法确认叙利亚和伊拉克的地点是否也遭到袭击。（消息来源：东方财富） 央行：择机用好货币政策储备工具 高度关注通胀指标特点与走势 坚决防范汇率超调风险。 4 月 18 日，中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇管理局局长朱鹤新在国新办举行的新闻发布会上 表示，前期出台的一系列货币政策措施正在逐步发挥作用，国民经济持续回升、开局良好。 未来货币政策还有空间，将密切观察政策效果及经济恢复、目标实现情况，择机用好储备工 具。（消息来源：东方财富） 图表 1 重要指数日涨跌幅（%）（2024.4.19） 图表 2 市场日 ...

Core Insights - The bond market is expected to yield returns by extending duration, with short-duration products still worthy of attention [31][39][23] - The capital market is experiencing a temporary disturbance due to the "New National Nine Articles," but the market is likely to trend positively in the long term as institutional improvements are made [34][45][11] - The equity market shows a long-term positive trend, with recommendations to increase allocation to growth-style assets [4][9][11] Section Summaries Economic Overview - The first quarter achieved a "good start," with GDP growth of 5.3% exceeding market expectations, but underlying economic growth momentum remains fragile [26][44] - Structural issues persist, including insufficient effective demand and significant overcapacity in certain industries [26][44] Capital Market Analysis - The "New National Nine Articles" has led to market volatility, particularly affecting micro-cap stocks, which saw a decline of 12.11% in the Wind micro-cap index [11][12] - The introduction of the "New National Nine Articles" is expected to enhance the investment environment by promoting value investing and stricter regulation of non-compliant companies [11][45] Equity Market Insights - The A-share market is expected to benefit from the "New National Nine Articles," with a focus on high-dividend sectors and "new quality productivity" areas as potential investment hotspots [45][11] - The market is experiencing a divergence in performance, with the financial sector showing strength while consumer and healthcare sectors are mixed [13][12] Bond Market Insights - The bond market continues to exhibit a bullish trend, particularly in long-term bonds, supported by stable monetary policy and ample market liquidity [39][31] - The yield curve is showing a narrowing spread between long and short-term bonds, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [32][23] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market is generally on an upward trend, with gold prices expected to rise further despite potential short-term corrections [25][41] - Agricultural products are experiencing downward adjustments due to seasonal supply increases [32][41]

Market Overview - On April 18, 2024, the three major indices opened lower, then fluctuated upwards before experiencing a decline, resulting in a "U-shaped" trend. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3074.22 points, up by 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.05% to 9376.81 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.55% to 1787.49 points [2][4]. Market Performance - The total trading volume of the two markets exceeded 900 billion, with northbound funds experiencing a net outflow of 5.285 billion yuan, while southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 6.638 billion yuan [6][9]. - Among the stocks, 2,113 rose, 127 remained flat, and 3,119 declined, indicating a bearish market sentiment [6]. Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Home Appliances (+1.81%), Non-ferrous Metals (+1.38%), and Non-bank Financials (+1.08%). Conversely, the sectors that underperformed were Utilities (-1.45%), Oil & Petrochemicals (-1.19%), and Media (-0.96%) [9][12]. - The overall performance of the Shenwan first-level industry indices showed a collective decline, with notable gains in consumer-related sectors while energy and media sectors faced losses [9][12]. Key Data Points - The unemployment rate for the 25-29 age group was reported at 7.2%, with a notable increase in the overall unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group to 15.3%, reflecting ongoing labor market challenges [2]. - The broad money supply (M2) surpassed 300 trillion yuan, indicating a significant monetary policy response to support the economy, although it was advised not to make simple year-on-year comparisons due to potential data distortions [2].

证券研究报告｜数据解读 5.3%增速背后的喜和忧 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------- ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------|-------|-------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | 申万一级行业名称 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | 申万一级行业指数涨跌幅（%） | | | 环保(申万) | 5.67 | | 5.67 6.00 | | | | 机械设备(申万) | 5.46 | | 5.00 | | | 前 五 | 计算机(申万) | 5.10 | | 4.0 ...

1762.88。两市量能依旧维持在 8000 亿之上， 证券研究报告——市场日报 图表 3 申万Ⅰ级行业日涨跌情况（亿元）（2024.4.12） 分析师声明: 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 5 行，午盘行至低点，午后市场行情回暖，三大 风险提示 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------|----------|-------| | 分 类 | 指 标 | 数 据 | 单 位 | | | 上涨家数 | 1,512 | 只 | | 市场强弱 | 平盘家数 | 102 | 只 | | | 下跌家数 | 3,742 | 只 | | | 涨停家数 | 68 | 只 | | 赚钱效应 | 跌停家数 | 24 | 只 | | | 上涨家数占比 | 27.75 | % | | | 北向资金 | -73.86 | 亿元 | | 资金动态 | 南向资金 | 61.46 | 亿元 | | | 两市成交量 | 749.84 | 亿股 | | 沪深成交 | 两市成交额 | 8,101.54 | 亿元 | 数据来源：Wind 大同证券研究中心 证券研究报告——市场日报 2020 ...

指数表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------|----------|-------| | 分 类 | 指 标 | 数 据 | 单 位 | | | 上涨家数 | 2,673 | 只 | | 市场强弱 | 平盘家数 | 207 | 只 | | | 下跌家数 | 2,476 | 只 | | | 涨停家数 | 52 | 只 | | 赚钱效应 | 跌停家数 | 24 | 只 | | | 上涨家数占比 | 49.21 | % | | | 北向资金 | 20.22 | 亿元 | | 资金动态 | 南向资金 | 71.50 | 亿元 | | | 两市成交量 | 759.23 | 亿股 | | 沪深成交 | 两市成交额 | 8,127.86 | 亿元 | 板块表现 资金表现 证券研究报告——市场日报 作者具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格并注册为注册分析师，本 报告准确客观反映了作者本人的研究观点，结论不受第三方授意或影响。在研究 人员所知情的范围内本公司、作者以及财产上的利害关系人与所评价或推荐的证 券不存在利害关系。 本报告采用的研究方法均为定 ...