Company Overview - Amer Sports is an international sports equipment group that started with tobacco business and expanded into sports through acquisitions, with two IPOs and one tender offer in its history [3] - The company has gone through four stages: tobacco business (1950-1987), focusing on sports (1988-2004), strengthening global influence (2005-2018), and strategic transformation (2019-present) [3][4] - In 2019, a consortium led by Anta Sports acquired all shares of Amer Sports for €4.6 billion, leading to a restructuring and simplification of the business [4] Brand Portfolio - Amer Sports has a well-established brand matrix covering various high-end outdoor scenarios, with three core brands accounting for about 90% of revenue [6] - The three core brands are Arc'teryx, Salomon, and Wilson, with Q1-Q3 2023 revenues of $940M, $950M, and $870M respectively, growing at 65%, 35%, and 10% YoY [6] - Arc'teryx has a strong presence in Greater China, contributing 48% of its revenue, with over 1.7 million members in the region as of September 2023 [10] Financial Performance - Revenue grew at a CAGR of 21% from 2020 to 2023, reaching $4.37 billion in 2023, up 23% YoY [22] - Adjusted EBITDA grew 34.9% to $610 million in 2023, with a CAGR of 25% from 2020 to 2023 [22] - Net loss narrowed to $209 million in 2023 from $253 million in 2022, with profitability expected to turn positive in 2024 after debt repayment [22] Market Position - The global sports equipment market reached $149.5 billion in 2022, with a projected CAGR of 6% from 2023 to 2028 [32] - Asia is the largest market for sports equipment, with a size of $79.5 billion in 2022, expected to reach $116.6 billion by 2028 [39] - China has the largest and fastest-growing sports equipment market, with a size of $34.6 billion in 2022 and a projected CAGR of 7.0% from 2022 to 2028 [39] Growth Drivers - The global sports apparel market was $395.7 billion in 2023, growing 6.3% YoY, with a projected CAGR of 7% from 2024 to 2028 [30] - Increasing per capita spending on sports apparel, rising health awareness post-pandemic, and the trend of athleisure are driving market growth [53] - The global sports market CR10 increased from 39% in 2014 to 45% in 2023, indicating a concentrated and competitive landscape [44] Valuation - Using EV/EBITDA valuation method, the target market cap is $10.1 billion, implying a 26% upside from the current valuation [84] - Comparable companies have an average EV/EBITDA of 16x for 2024, while Amer Sports is currently at 13x [84]

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Hold" [4] Core Views - The company's net profit for 2023 was HKD 3.122 billion, a decrease of 34.5% year-on-year, with earnings per share at HKD 0.48. The total dividend for 2023 is HKD 0.31, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 65%, which is below expectations [4] - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to a property impairment of HKD 1.81 billion, while the company's revenue for 2023 was HKD 24.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [4] - The water business remains stable, contributing approximately 85% to the pre-tax profit, with a pre-tax profit of HKD 5.706 billion for 2023, consistent with 2022 [4] - The company is facing pressure from the real estate sector, which may continue to suppress profits in the future [4] - The company has adopted a new dividend policy, reducing the dividend payout ratio from 84% in 2022 to 65% in 2023, indicating uncertainty in future dividends due to ongoing real estate pressures [4] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue for 2023 was HKD 24.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4% [5] - The net profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been adjusted to HKD 3.692 billion and HKD 3.737 billion, respectively, down from previous estimates of HKD 4.289 billion and HKD 4.455 billion [4][5] - The projected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are HKD 0.56, HKD 0.57, and HKD 0.54, respectively [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be 6.2, 6.1, and 6.5 times, respectively [5]

申万宏源研究 上海市南京东路99号 | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com 简单金融 成就梦想 互联网 | 公司研究 23Q4 经营现金流持续正向，关注游戏新品 2024年3月11日 进展 买入 哔哩哔哩(BILI:US) 维持评级 哔哩哔哩 23Q4实现营业收入 63亿元，同比增长 3%，符合预期；调整后归母净亏损 5.6 亿元， 亏损率同环比继续收窄至个位数。23年全年实现营业收入 225亿元，接近前期指引下限；调整后 市场数据：2024年3月8日 归母净亏损34亿元。 收盘价（美元） 11.13 用户数据季节性波动。根据财报，23Q4，MAU 达 3.36亿，同比增长 3%，环比下滑 1%；DAU 纳斯达克指数 16085.11 达1 亿，同比增长 8%，环比下滑 3%；环比变化主要由于季节性因素影响。人均单日使用时保持 52周最高/最低价 -美元 25.58/8.80 在超95分钟水平，同比下滑1分钟，环比下滑5分钟，同比变化主要由于基数影响，环比变化主 市值（亿美元） 47 要由于季节性因素影响。社区规模整体健康，体现强社区运营能力。 股本（百万股） 421 汇 ...

申万宏源研究 上海市南京东路99号 | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com 简单金融 成就梦想 海外科技 | 公司研究 谷歌：AI 征途换档提速，云业务驱动成长 2024年3月11日 谷歌-Alphabet（GOOGL.O） 买入 谷歌大模型：加速追赶，旨在大模型领域重新领跑。1）调整部门架构后产品更新迭代明显提 速：面对与OpenAI的竞争，23年4月谷歌调整AI部门架构，并将资源全面向AI发展倾斜， 23年12月后，谷歌密集发布了Gemini1.0系列、TPUv5p芯片、Gemini1.5 Pro等成果，正 首次覆盖 加速追赶。2）Gemini 性能优秀但仍需改进：基于在多模态领域的积累，谷歌发布第一个原 生多模态大模型 Gemini，性能与Claude3、GPT4共同处于第一梯队，具备较强竞争力；但 市场数据： 2024年03月08日 23 年2 月底Gemini出现生成内容多样性错误的问题，谷歌暂时下架其文生图功能进行紧急 收盘价（美元） 135.41 修复。3）AI人才储备及数据资源丰富：谷歌在AI领域耕耘多年，谷歌大脑、Deepmind等 纳斯达克指数 160 ...