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强化交通枢纽店优势,24年注重门店提效
申万宏源研究· 2024-04-28 06:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of 10-20% from the current level [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of CNY 2.744 billion for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 116 million, reflecting a significant growth of 357.1% [2][3]. - The company plans to focus on enhancing store efficiency in 2024, with projected store counts of 4,036 and 4,346 for 2024 and 2025, respectively, down from previous estimates of 4,666 and 5,476 [2]. - The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are CNY 207 million, CNY 254 million, and CNY 308 million, representing year-on-year growth rates of 79%, 23%, and 21% respectively [2][3]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2024E Revenue: CNY 3.137 billion, 14% growth - 2025E Revenue: CNY 3.511 billion, 12% growth - 2026E Revenue: CNY 3.871 billion, 10% growth - 2024E Net Profit: CNY 207 million, 79% growth - 2025E Net Profit: CNY 254 million, 23% growth - 2026E Net Profit: CNY 308 million, 21% growth [3][8]. Operational Highlights - The company has accelerated the expansion of its transportation hub stores, with a total of 3,816 stores at the end of the reporting period, including 1,720 self-operated and 2,096 franchised stores [2]. - The average revenue per self-operated store increased by 7.9% year-on-year, while franchised stores saw a decline of 2.5% [2]. - The company is diversifying its consumer reach through delivery services and e-commerce platforms, with a focus on late-night dining scenarios [2].
网点扩张再提速,教育业务营收高增确立
申万宏源研究· 2024-04-26 01:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental [1][2][3] Core Views - New Oriental's revenue for Q3 FY24 reached USD 1.207 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60.1%, driven primarily by the growth in non-academic after-school tutoring and overseas test preparation services [1][3] - The company is experiencing strong enrollment growth in non-academic AST, with a projected increase in revenue to USD 241 million for Q3 FY24, representing a 72.7% year-on-year growth [1][3] - The expansion of learning centers is accelerating, with the number of centers increasing to 911, a 27.9% year-on-year growth, and the company aims for a 30% annual growth rate in learning centers [1][3] - The overseas test preparation and consulting business is recovering rapidly, contributing an estimated USD 254 million in revenue for Q3 FY24, a 40.1% year-on-year increase [1][3] - The report projects significant growth potential for non-academic AST, estimating over 2 million enrollments in FY24, with a potential market share of only 6% even at a scale of 12 million enrollments [1][3] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24, FY25, and FY26 are raised to USD 4.213 billion, USD 5.422 billion, and USD 7.044 billion respectively, compared to previous estimates of USD 4 billion, USD 5.22 billion, and USD 6.72 billion [2][3] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY24, FY25, and FY26 remain at USD 482 million, USD 664 million, and USD 869 million respectively [2][3] - The target price under SOTP valuation is set at USD 110.81, indicating a potential upside of 43.8% from the current price [1][3]
学历教育层次持续提升,业绩平稳增长
申万宏源研究· 2024-04-26 01:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Higher Education Group [2][4][7] Core Views - New Higher Education Group reported a revenue of RMB 1.311 billion for the first half of FY24, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 426 million, up 7.6% year-on-year, aligning with previous expectations [4][7] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by increases in tuition and accommodation fees, with the average tuition fee reaching RMB 16,000, a 13% increase year-on-year [4][7] - The student structure has been optimized, with the proportion of undergraduate students increasing by 3.4 percentage points to 39.8% [4][7] - The gross profit margin for the first half of FY24 was 39.8%, a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stable profitability despite rising costs [4][7] - The company is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% in average tuition fees from FY24 to FY26 [4][7] Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at RMB 2.262 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.74% [5] - Net profit for FY24E is forecasted to be RMB 786 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.82% [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from RMB 0.51 in FY24E to RMB 0.64 in FY26E [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 4.15 in FY24E to 3.31 in FY26E, indicating potential undervaluation [5] Strategic Developments - The transition to for-profit status for private universities is being implemented, allowing institutions to set their own tuition fees based on market conditions [4][7] - The company is focusing on high-quality educational strategies and has increased investments in human resources and infrastructure, with labor costs rising by 11.4% and depreciation costs by 28.4% year-on-year [4][7]
中国市场高端化引领增长 韩国市场承压
申万宏源研究· 2024-04-25 03:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Budweiser APAC, indicating an expected price increase of 10-20% in the next six months [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 6.856 billion in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.1% on an organic basis, while net profit decreased by 7% to USD 852 million [4]. - The report highlights the strong growth potential in the high-end product segment in the Chinese market, driven by a structural upgrade, while the Korean market faces competitive pressures [4][5]. - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is adjusted to USD 1.028 billion, USD 1.165 billion, and USD 1.293 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 21%, 13%, and 11% [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, Budweiser APAC achieved a beer sales volume of 9.2767 million tons, a 4.6% increase year-on-year, with revenue per ton rising to USD 739, up 6.2% [4]. - The EBITDA for 2023 was USD 2.023 billion, a 4.7% increase, with an EBITDA margin of 29.5%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points [4]. - The company plans to continue expanding its distribution of high-end products, with a total of 220 cities in China and 63 cities for ultra-premium products by the end of 2023 [4].
业绩环比双位数增长,关注政策引导下互联互通贡献港交所业绩
申万宏源研究· 2024-04-24 09:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a strong recovery in trading activities and improved investment income, leading to a significant increase in revenue and net profit in Q1 2024 [5] - The introduction of five capital market cooperation measures by the China Securities Regulatory Commission is expected to enhance liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market [5] - The report has revised profit forecasts upward due to improved trading conditions and supportive policies, projecting net profits of 12.2 billion, 13.4 billion, and 14.3 billion HKD for 2024-2026, respectively [5] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 total revenue was 5.2 billion HKD, down 6% year-on-year but up 7% quarter-on-quarter; main revenue was 4.66 billion HKD, down 7% year-on-year but up 30% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Net profit for Q1 2024 was 2.97 billion HKD, down 13% year-on-year but up 14% quarter-on-quarter [5] - EBITDA margin was 72%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year but up 4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue contributions from trading fees, settlement fees, and investment income accounted for nearly 80% of total revenue [5] - Q1 2024 revenue by segment: cash equities 1.88 billion HKD (-12% YoY), equity securities and derivatives 1.57 billion HKD (-15% YoY), commodities 670 million HKD (+33% YoY), data and connectivity 520 million HKD (+4% YoY) [5] Market Activity - The average daily trading volume (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks in Q1 2024 was 994 billion HKD, down 22% year-on-year but up 9% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Northbound capital inflow was 682 billion RMB, while southbound capital inflow was 1,331 billion HKD in Q1 2024 [10] IPO Market Overview - In Q1 2024, the company completed 12 IPOs, raising 4.8 billion HKD, a decrease of 28% year-on-year and 78% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The report highlights a potential recovery in the IPO market due to improved conditions and regulatory support for mainland companies seeking to list in Hong Kong [5]
销售表现符合预期,库存改善驱动折扣收紧
申万宏源研究· 2024-04-24 07:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of 10-20% [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 sales performance met expectations, with the main brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) achieving low single-digit growth in retail revenue. Online sales grew by 20-30%, while offline channels saw a decline [3]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its channels and product offerings, particularly in the running shoe and fitness categories, which have shown strong growth. The basketball category is currently under adjustment [3]. - Inventory levels are healthy, with improvements in discount rates contributing to better average selling prices (ASP). The company expects continued improvement in discounts and stable ASP moving forward [3]. - Management maintains a conservative growth outlook for 2024, targeting mid-single-digit revenue growth and low double-digit profit margins, supported by new product launches and seasonal sales [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 258 billion RMB in 2024 to 344 billion RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9% [4][9]. - Net profit is projected to recover from 31.9 billion RMB in 2023 to 40.7 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a gradual improvement in profitability [4][9]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 48.4% to 49.2% over the forecast period, indicating effective cost management [4][9].
把握资产荒外溢到港股的机会
申万宏源研究· 2024-04-23 22:17
大家好欢迎参加商万红元策略把握资产荒外荒外易到港股的机会高峰红系列研究之八目前所有参会者均处于静音状态现在开始播报免责声明 请参会人员务必注意本次电话会议交流内容仅限参会人员内部参考任何机构或个人不得以任何形式对电话会议任何内容进行泄露或外发请勿以任何方式索要、泄露、散布、转发电话会议纪要任何泄露电话会议纪要等信息的行为均为侵权行为申望洪源研究保留追究泄露转发者法律责任的权利 好的尊敬的各位投资者大家晚上好那我是声望海外策略董毅那就在刚刚的话呢在七点钟的时候我们同样在金门财经这个平台上举办了一场关于近期整个海外科技股加速下跌然后美股的一个波动放大怎么看以及说外移到整个的一个 海外中资股市场的一个简单的一个电话会各位投资者如果有兴趣的话呢待会可以来收听一下我们那场电话会的一个回放啊那我们先插播一条这个广告啊那今天的话呢来给各位投资者来汇报一下说我们对于整个的一个高股息资产在港股市场上的一个策略上的一个观点啊那今天呢非常 高兴的也请到了我们双眼朋友A股策略的资深高级分析师黄子涵老师待会由黄子涵老师来给各位来详细分析来详细解读一下我们对于整个也从A股投资的视角整个一个高股系列一个投资在港股市场上如何进行筛选如何进行 ...
明新旭腾23年报&24一季报交流
申万宏源研究· 2024-04-23 03:29
注公众号:月 明新旭腾23年报&24一季报交流240423申万原文 2024年04月23日11:04 发言人100:10 感谢大家参加本次会议。会议即将开始,请稍后。Thanks for your participation.The meeting is ready to start. Please remain on the line. 发言人2 00:34 大家好,欢迎参加申万宏源汽车明星系统2023年报和24年一期到业绩交流会。目前所有参会者均处于 静音状态,下面开始播报您的声明。声明播报完毕后,主持人可直接开始发言。 发言人100:48 股市调研 发言人301:20 各位投资者,大家上午好。今天很高兴我们邀请到明星系统的董秘袁总,还有财务总监李总一块儿和大 家交流一下2023年的年报和2024年的一季报情况。昨天公司发布了整个报告的一个情况。我们可以看 到今年一季度整体的这个营收环比还是有所提高的,就是提高幅度还不错。所以综合而言,我们也是希 望在这次交流中,把公司相当于现在多业务多品类的这些材料都具体的这种情况,都更加细的了解一 下。同时针对我公司后续在海外的一些布局也展开一些交流。有请我们的这个公 ...
业绩符合预期,乐道+换电改善盈利能力
申万宏源研究· 2024-04-23 01:02
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to the company, indicating a limited expected price movement within a range of -10% to +10% over the next six months [1][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a total vehicle delivery of 160,038 units in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.7%. Revenue reached 55.62 billion RMB, up 12.9% year-on-year, while net loss expanded to 21.15 billion RMB, a 45.3% increase in losses compared to the previous year [5]. - The introduction of new models, including the flagship ET9 and the second brand Le Dao, is expected to enhance the product lineup and target the mid-range market, potentially boosting monthly sales to 20,000 units in 2024 [5]. - The company has made significant investments in charging infrastructure, with 3,767 charging stations and 21,912 charging piles established nationwide, leading to improved profitability in its battery swapping business [5]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 61.99 billion RMB in 2024 to 110.87 billion RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22% [6][8]. - Net losses are expected to decrease from 18.25 billion RMB in 2024 to 9.72 billion RMB in 2026, indicating a potential improvement in financial performance over the forecast period [6][8]. - The report anticipates a decline in vehicle sales forecast for 2024 from 240,000 to 180,000 units due to increased competition and market pressures [5].
海外科技股加速下跌,美股波动放大怎么看?
申万宏源研究· 2024-04-22 14:13
大家好欢迎参加声望红颜证券台湾多季股加速下跌美股固定攻大怎么看目前搜索商会找清楚已经状态现在开始播报名 请参会人员务必注意本次电话会议交流内容仅限参会人员内部参考任何机构或个人不得以任何形式对电话会议任何内容进行泄露或外发请勿以任何方式索要、泄露、散布、转发电话会议纪要任何泄露电话会议纪要等信息的行为均为侵权行为声望洪源研究保留追究泄露转发者法律责任的权利 各位投资者大家好我是奢万交运首席还有海外负责人严海最近海外尤其是美股的科技股回调幅度比较大市场关注度比较高今天我们奢万对海外有覆盖的几个行业联合做这么一个 从我们这个美股的跟踪角度来看确实海外的科技中概包括我们这个全球定价的这个海外的航运包括各种周期品其实在这种这个美股下跌中啊其实还是有一些的这个分化的下面呢我们各个子行业对近期的自己跟踪的美股相关的这些这个信息啊做这么一个这个汇报下面我们先请这个我们这个 策略组看美股策略的冯小宇老师对近期的科技股下跌的整个观点做一个分享下面请冯老师开始好的 谢谢严总各位投资者大家好我是策略部的冯小宇我首先会从整个宏观包括流动性包括这次的催化剂上来对美股做一个自上而下的讨论 那么这次从三月底到现在的话美股见顶回落大概是持续 ...