图 2：服务消费占比变化 四是高品质消费供给不足。居民对于营养品、母婴保健、化妆品、珠宝首饰、钟 表眼镜、乘用车等进口意愿依然较为强烈，2023 年我国进口消费品达到 1.95 万亿元， 是 2010 年的 25 倍（109.1 亿美元）。在销量前 100 大的进口品牌商品中，电脑办公、 美妆护肤、个人护理、母婴和家用电器品类的知名进口品牌数量最多，前 100 大品牌 个数达到 64 个。此外，健康、文化、旅游、文化等高品质服务供给不足。比如，我国 还缺少能比肩好莱坞大片、格莱美音乐、南美足球等文化消费供给。 15 资料来源：海关总署，中国银行研究院 13 伦敦经济月刊（2013 年 1 月） 2013 年 1 月 18 日 2024 年 2 月 23 日 2024 年第 13 期（总第 524 期） 宏观观察 2024 年第 13 期（总第 524 期） 消费和投资是一个货币的两面，本身就相互统一、相互促进。当前，构建"消费 -投资"良性循环，既事关消费潜能的释放，也事关政府投资方向的锚定和内需市场 的启动，对宏观经济稳增长、经济结构转型都意义重大。本文在回顾"消费-投资" 良性循环的理论和历史基础上，剖析 ...

Group 1: Economic Analysis - The current decline in Chinese prices is considered temporary and structural, with a stable overall economic operation and no strict definition of deflation present[8] - Historical instances of deflation in China have been met with timely government responses, effectively stabilizing prices and promoting economic growth[10] - In 2023, China's GDP growth was 5.2%, indicating a stable macroeconomic recovery despite price declines[58] Group 2: Challenges and Concerns - Key issues include insufficient demand, weak market confidence, overcapacity in certain industries, and obstacles in monetary policy transmission[8] - The consumer price index (CPI) for 2023 showed a slight increase of 0.2%, suggesting that the price drop is not indicative of widespread deflation[34] - The real estate market's downturn has significantly impacted related consumption, with real estate investments declining by 10% and 9.6% in 2022 and 2023, respectively[51] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - It is recommended to enhance short-term growth policies while promoting long-term reforms to stimulate economic recovery[55] - The government should focus on increasing fiscal space and optimizing fiscal expenditure towards social welfare and innovation[61] - Maintaining a stable and consistent policy environment is crucial to bolster market confidence and prevent negative feedback loops in expectations and wages[64]