高盛：第720期：第三次全会预览，台积电，石头科技，汽车，日本工业电子，教育，美光 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around China National Pharmaceutical Group (China Biopharmaceutical), a leading company in the pharmaceutical industry in China, focusing on oncology, liver diseases, respiratory issues, and pain management [1]. Core Points and Arguments - China Biopharmaceutical is recognized as a representative leading company in the domestic pharmaceutical sector, which has been deeply covered and strongly recommended by the investment firm [1]. - The company has successfully transitioned from generic drugs to innovative drugs over the years, indicating a significant evolution in its product offerings [1]. - The valuation enhancement of traditional pharmaceutical companies is highlighted as one of the top ten judgments in the annual strategy [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The emphasis on the company's focus areas (oncology, liver diseases, respiratory issues, and pain management) suggests potential growth opportunities in these therapeutic segments [1].

尊敬的各位嘉宾尊敬的来自学术界的和新闻界的朋友们关注中国宏观经济的各位老师和同学们大家上午好由中国人民大学宏观经济论坛举办的热点问题研讨会第88期与大家见面了 本期的论坛我们聚焦中国出口状况以及下半年的出口形势虽然受到全球经济形势动荡贸易保不住加剧地缘政治恶化等不利的影响我们国家对于贸易在今年上半年仍然交出了一份亮眼的答卷 进出口的规模和增速均录得了一个优异的成绩无论是从外贸国家的广泛性还是从国内企业的参与度特别是民营企业的参与程度以及出口产品的类别等多个维度来看 中国对外贸易的格局呈现出一种很好的特征总体的复苏形势势头比较明显应该说对外贸易的这种超预期的原因或者它的支撑力是多方面的但是重点在哪些方面它是一种临时性的政想冲击还是存在着更为深层的趋势性的背景 我们能否在一个相对比较长的时间一定规模上保持这样一种良好的态势未来面临的主要问题是什么我们又可以在多大程度上给予应对这些问题其实都是我们中国对外贸易问题中绕不开的 所以今天我们论坛有幸邀请到了对外贸易研究和实务部门的专家学者一会儿我们听听他们的解析首先允许我向大家介绍一下今天参加论坛的各位嘉宾 他们是中国人民大学经济研究所联席所长宏观经济论坛的创始人宗成信 ...

一、国内手机市场总体情况 5G 手机 1.02 亿部，同比增长 20.3%，占同期手机出货量的 83.9%。 239 339 513 535 579 473 338 327 445 266 408 395 555 172 358 377 475 1646 1770 1734 1330 2017 1732 1506 1564 2872 2644 2709 2420 2617 1253 1774 2023 2553 87% 83% 77% 71% 77% 78% 81% 82% 86% 91% 87% 86% 82% 88%83% 84% 84% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 2023年 2024年 2G/3G 4G 5G 5G手机占比 2024 年 1-5 月，国内手机上市新机型 179 款，同比下降 1.1%，其中 5G 手机 98 款，同比增长 25.6%，占同期手机上市新 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - The stock market performed weakly last week, with cyclical sectors such as consumer, real estate, and pharmaceuticals experiencing declines [1][2] - The bond market showed strong performance, with long-term government bond yields falling below 2.5% [1][2] - The RMB faced depreciation pressure, with the USD/RMB exchange rate breaking through 7.25 and offshore RMB reaching above 7.3 [1][2] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - The A-share market is currently focused on two sectors: dividends and technology [1][4] - The industrial mother machine concept gained recognition due to the tech conference, and AI-driven changes in the consumer electronics and Apple supply chain have attracted attention [1][4] Market Data and Key Metrics - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with market confidence in policy remaining low despite some easing measures [2] - The export sector showed strong performance from the beginning of the year to mid-May, but this trend is unlikely to sustain without a new global easing cycle [4] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company highlighted the need to eliminate negative factors such as tight global USD liquidity and domestic real estate issues to fully repair the A-share market and create conditions for a new bull market [5][6] - The company emphasized that the current phase of risk aversion is marked by the shift in market capitalization from Moutai to ICBC, signaling the end of the leveraged growth era [1][3] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current risk aversion in the market is due to global USD liquidity tightening and domestic real estate issues, which need to be resolved to restore market confidence [5][6] - The company expects that the A-share market will require both overseas USD liquidity easing and domestic interest rate cuts to achieve a full recovery [7] Other Important Information - The company discussed the potential impact of the upcoming Third Plenum, which is expected to focus on central-local fiscal relations and systemic reforms to address current economic challenges [9][10] - The company highlighted the importance of fiscal and tax reforms in addressing the unsustainable fiscal model and supporting future economic growth [11][16] Q&A Summary Question: What were the main characteristics of the capital market last week? - The capital market was dominated by risk aversion, with weak stock market performance and strong bond market performance [2] Question: What is the significance of Moutai's market capitalization being surpassed by ICBC? - This shift marks the end of China's leveraged growth era and reflects the current extreme risk aversion in the market [3] Question: What sectors in the A-share market are worth paying attention to? - The A-share market is currently focused on dividends and technology, with particular attention on AI-driven changes in consumer electronics and the Apple supply chain [4] Question: When will the risk appetite for Chinese assets open up? - The risk appetite for Chinese assets will open up once negative factors such as global USD liquidity tightening and domestic real estate issues are resolved [5][6] Question: What are the main reasons for the poor performance of the A-share market over the past two years? - The poor performance is attributed to global USD liquidity tightening and domestic real estate issues [6] Question: What conditions are needed for the repair and rebound of Chinese asset risks? - The repair and rebound of Chinese asset risks require overseas USD liquidity easing and domestic interest rate cuts [7] Question: Why has China not implemented large-scale easing policies? - China has not implemented large-scale easing due to RMB depreciation pressure and incomplete financial supply-side reforms [8] Question: What impact will the Third Plenum have on market expectations? - The Third Plenum is expected to focus on central-local fiscal relations and systemic reforms, which could influence market expectations [9][10] Question: What are the main challenges facing China's real estate market? - The real estate market faces challenges such as oversupply, demographic changes, and reduced demand due to population aging [12] Question: How does local fiscal contraction affect the economy? - Local fiscal contraction has significantly impacted government spending and public services, contributing to overall economic weakness [13] Question: What are the long-term impacts of demographic changes on China's economy? - Demographic changes, including aging and declining birth rates, will have profound impacts on labor supply, consumption, and social security systems [14][17] Question: What are the key drivers of China's rapid prosperity over the past 20 years? - The key drivers include industrialization, urbanization, and a leveraged growth model supported by a large working-age population [15] Question: How is fiscal reform interconnected with other institutional reforms? - Fiscal reform is closely linked to other institutional reforms, including government expenditure optimization, social security system improvement, and financial regulation [16] Question: What are the current and future trends in China's population structure? - China's population is aging rapidly, with the proportion of elderly expected to double by 2051, and a significant decline in the working-age population [17][18] Question: What are the causes and effects of the declining birth rate? - The declining birth rate is caused by a reduction in the number of women of childbearing age and is expected to exacerbate labor shortages and economic challenges [19][21] Question: How will population distribution between urban and rural areas affect social development? - The concentration of young people in cities and the aging population in rural areas will lead to resource allocation imbalances and increased fiscal pressure [20][23] Question: What measures should the Chinese government take to address aging and declining birth rates? - The government should focus on employment, education reform, vocational training, and improving the social security system to address these challenges [24][25] Question: How should healthcare reform be conducted? - Healthcare reform should focus on cost control through centralized procurement and the development of a multi-tiered medical security system [26] Question: What are the expected reforms in consumption tax? - Consumption tax reforms are expected to shift from the production to the consumption stage and be decentralized to local governments [30] Question: What is the outlook for the copper market? - The copper market is expected to remain weak until there is a clear signal of monetary easing in the US or China [35] Question: What is the outlook for the bond market in July? - The bond market's performance in July will depend on RMB exchange rate pressures, with limited downside if the pressure is high [37]

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欢迎来到全新改版的对话节目我是成都书局的创始人吴承经济学人商论的总编辑我们正处在一个巨变的时代外部地缘政治的板块碰撞推动了全球化的转向而内部经济发展需要寻找新的动能解决结构性的问题高科技的高温稳定更让我们每一家企业跟每个个人都深切意识到了洪皇后效应 你只有不断奔跑才能待在原地终身学习是我们每个人标配的能力那对话系列在过去两年已经播出了超过87位全球的经济商业管理跟技术领域的前瞻思想者与著名的写家进行了一系列深入的对谈帮助大家思考在快速变化的世界我们每个人应该怎么做去快速应变 今年全新改版的对话系列增加了三个专注点分别是企业家系列中国企业出海系列和深度人文对话系列欢迎大家点击左上角头像关注成都书局的视频号双击右下角给我们点点赞也希望大家能够多多转发分享这场直播让更多人看到我们的内容 我的私域社群无尘商业观察营也正在招募中那无尘商业观察营会定期更新全球财经商业科技等议题的深度梳理感兴趣的朋友们可以点击左上方关注成都书局的公众号后台回复直播录取 欢迎来到成都书局的第96期对话节目这期我们探讨的话题是中国汽车行业的变局跟终局我们也特别有幸请到了资深的独立汽车专家然后也是亚视龙汽车科技的创始人兼CEO担任全球著名的两家 ...

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