❖ 每日热点 工业和信息化部、交通运输部、商务部：印发《制造业企业供应链管理水平提升指南（试 行）》。 ❖ 研究报告 风险提示：宏观经济增长低于预期，消费恢复不及预期风险。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|-------------------------|------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| | 川财证券研究所晨报 \n所属部门：总量研究部 | | 报告类别：其他研究报告 | 报告时间： 2024 年 5 月 21 日 | | 分析师：张卓然 | 执业证书： | S1100522070001 | 联系方式： zhangzhuoran@cczq.com | | 北京：东城区建国门内大街 28 号民生金融中心 | A 座 6 层，100005 | 深圳：福田区福华一路 | 6 号免税商务大厦 32 层， 518000 | | 上海：陆家嘴环路 1000 号恒生大厦 11 楼， ...

商务部：1-4 月我国企业承接服务外包合同额 7814.3 亿元，同比增长 14.4%。 国家发改委：引导鼓励各类品牌积极探索创新，加快发展新质生产力。 ❖ 川财观点 策略：昨日三大指数回落，两市成交 7992 亿元。海外方面，多名美联储官员再度发声表 示谨慎态度，大宗商品价格出现一定回落。国内方面，国家发展改革委召开 5 月份新闻 发布会，指出在投资端，下一步将落实超长期特别国债支持国家重大战略实施和重点领 域安全能力建设，加快中央预算内投资下达和地方政府专项债券发行使用进度。方向上， 建议继续关注公用事业、新质生产力（低空经济、合成生物）、化工等方向。 ❖ 研究报告 【川财研究】策略周报：本周指数窄幅震荡，地产板块领涨两市(20240518） 截至 5 月 17 日收盘，本周上证指数下跌 0.02%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.32%，深证成指 下跌 0.22%，创业板指下跌 0.70%，上证 50 指数上涨 0.62%。行业方面，本周房地产、 建筑材料、建筑装饰等板块涨幅居前，分别上涨 12.65%、5.03%、3.00%，家用电器、 医药生物和煤炭板块跌幅居前，跌幅分别为-2.36%、-2.12%、- ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|-------------------------|----------------------|--------------------------------------------------| | 所属部门：总量研究部 | 报告类别：其他研究报告 | | 报告时间： 2024 年 5 月 23 日 | | 分析师：张卓然 | 执业证书： | S1100522070001 | 联系方式： zhangzhuoran@cczq.com | | 北京：东城区建国门内大街 28 号民生金融中心 | A 座 6 层，100005 | 深圳：福田区福华一路 | 6 号免税商务大厦 32 层， 518000 | | 上海：陆家嘴环路 1000 号恒生大厦 11 楼， | 200120 | 成都：高新区交子大道 | 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼， 610041 | ❖ 每日热点 中国民航局：将配合相关部门做好空域分类和低空空域管理改革试点，增加低空可飞 ...

Core Insights - The overall revenue of A-share listed companies in 2023 reached 72.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.48%, while net profit fell by 2.70% to 5.26 billion yuan, primarily due to the drag from the real estate industry chain [3][21][23] - In Q1 2024, A-share companies achieved a revenue of 16.88 trillion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.16%, but net profit decreased by 4.74% to 1.43 trillion yuan [4][23] - The recovery in consumer sectors is notable, with industries such as retail, social services, textiles, and automotive showing significant profit growth, particularly the automotive sector which saw a profit increase of 48.12% [4][23] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue growth in 2023 was steady, but profit was significantly impacted by declines in the real estate, construction materials, and coal industries [3][23] - Consumer sectors are recovering well, with rapid profit increases in retail, social services, textiles, and automotive industries, indicating a positive trend in domestic consumption [4][23] Industry Performance - In 2023, industries like retail, social services, textiles, media, transportation, and public utilities experienced profit growth rates exceeding 50%, largely due to low base effects from 2022 and the rapid recovery post-pandemic [4][23] - The automotive industry, particularly the domestic new energy vehicle sector, has developed a leading technological advantage globally, with China exporting over 5.22 million vehicles in 2023, becoming the world's largest automobile exporter [4][23] Dividend and R&D Investment - Despite overall performance pressures, the dividend amount for A-share companies increased, exceeding 2.1 trillion yuan in 2023, a growth of over 3% from 2022 [24] - R&D investment also saw an increase, totaling 1.60 trillion yuan in 2023, with an overall R&D intensity of 2.21%, reflecting a growing emphasis on core technologies and research personnel [24] Strategic Recommendations - Focus on sectors with stable performance and low valuations, such as food and beverage and home appliances, which have shown good annual and quarterly reports [24] - Consider new productivity sectors like low-altitude economy and biomanufacturing, which are supported by national strategies [24] - Public utilities are also recommended due to expected price increases and stable performance [24]

❖ 每日热点 根据 4 月纽约联储调查，美国 1 年通胀预期上升至 3.26% ❖ 研究报告 本报告由川财证券有限责任公司编制 谨请参阅本页的重要声明 川财证券研究报告 中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于加强行政执法协调监督工作体系建设的意 见》 国家金融监督管理总局海南监管局近日发布公告称，将指导机构加大对消费品以旧换 新和大规模设备更新改造金融支持 根据 4 月纽约联储调查，美国 1 年通胀预期上升至 3.26% 资料来源：iFinD，川财证券研究所 国家金融监督管理总局海南监管局近日发布公告称，将指导机构加大对消费品以旧换 新和大规模设备更新改造金融支持 策略：昨日三大指数小幅回落，两市成交 8246 亿元。消息层面，国务院召开支持"两 重"建设部署动员视频会议，强调要高质量做好支持"两重"建设各项工作 为推进中 国式现代化；市场方面，腾讯发布一季报，第一季度调整后净利润 502.7亿元人民币， 超市场此前预期的 430 亿元人民币，同时其表示有望在 2024 年回购超过 1000 亿港元的 股票。方向上，建议关注新质生产力（低空经济、合成生物）、低估值高股息（公用 事业）等方向。 一、市场每日热点 ...

Market Overview - The report highlights that the major indices experienced a decline, with total trading volume exceeding 900 billion yuan. The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau is expected to release the CPI report, with market expectations indicating a potential slowdown in inflation for April, the first in six months [5][6] - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance of general government bonds and ultra-long-term special bonds for 2024, including 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year bonds, reflecting an expected increase in policy support [5][6][21] Electronic Sector Performance - In the electronic sector, one stock reached the daily limit up, with the top three performers being Zhaoxin Technology, Cambricon, and Jinhai Tong, with gains of 16.43%, 11.18%, and 10.00% respectively. Conversely, the bottom three performers were ST Huamei, *ST Meixun, and *ST Chaohua, with declines of -5.08%, -4.96%, and -4.78% [3][16] - The overall performance of the technology sector showed a mixed trend, with the electronic sector performing well while the communication sector lagged behind [16] Government Initiatives - The State Council held a video meeting to support the "two major" construction initiatives, emphasizing the importance of issuing and effectively utilizing ultra-long-term special bonds to support major national strategies and key areas [6][21] - The report indicates that the central bank has optimized the "swap connection" mechanism, enhancing product types and improving supporting functions to meet diverse risk management needs of domestic and foreign investors [7][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on listed companies with low valuations and good dividend rates as potential investment opportunities [5][6]

Key Insights - In April 2024, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, while the purchase price index fell by 3.0%, with the decline rates narrowing by 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] - The average industrial producer price from January to April 2024 was down 2.7% year-on-year, and the purchase price index decreased by 3.3% [1][5] - The People's Bank of China reported that in April, new RMB loans amounted to 730 billion yuan, while the social financing increment was -198.7 billion yuan, indicating potential for further economic policy support [5][23] Industry Research - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is guiding lithium battery companies to reduce capacity expansion, which may lead to an industry turnaround [7] - The domestic lithium battery industry has seen rapid expansion, with capacity potentially exceeding 3000 GWh by 2025, but utilization rates have been declining, currently around 40% [7] - The C919 large passenger aircraft, developed with independent intellectual property rights, is entering mass production, with the first aircraft expected to be introduced in August [5][7] - The aviation market in China is projected to become the largest single aviation market globally by 2040, with a forecast of 9,084 aircraft deliveries from 2021 to 2040 [5][7] Regional Development - In the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, 300 projects completed investments of 149.2 billion yuan from January to April 2024, achieving an annual investment completion rate of 34.2% [5][7] - Modern infrastructure projects have seen steady progress, with investments of 85.39 billion yuan completed in the same period [5][7]

| --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| | 川财证券研究所晨报 \n所属部门：总量研究部 | \n报告类别：其他研究报告 | 报告时间： 2024 年 5 月 10 日 | | 分析师：张卓然 | 执业证书： S1100522070001 | 联系方式： zhangzhuoran@cczq.com | | 北京：东城区建国门内大街 28 号民生金融中心 | 座 6 层，100005 深圳：福田区福华一路 | 6 号免税商务大厦 32 层， 518000 | | 上海：陆家嘴环路 1000 号恒生大厦 11 楼， | 200120 成都：高新区交子大道 | 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼， 610041 | ❖ 每日热点 英国央行维持基准利率在 5.25%不变 符合市场预期 ❖ 研究报告 ❖ 【川财研究】公用事业 ...

❖ 跟踪点评 国防军工板块中今日有 3 只股票涨停,无股票跌停。排名前三的股票为北方长龙、三角 防务和四创电子，涨跌幅分别为 20.01%、20.01%和 9.99%；排名后三的股票为安达维尔、 华丰科技和上海瀚讯，涨跌幅分别为-7.04%、-4.71%和-4.59%。 今日，主要指数普涨，先进制造板块主要子行业表现较好，国防军工板块排名较好，机 械设备板块排名较差。（来源：iFinD） 工信部拟引导锂电企业减少产能扩张 行业有望提前迎来反转（财联社） 近年来，国内锂电行业高速扩张，产能规模不断增长，但利用率却逐年下滑。根据国内 锂电池企业的投扩产项目情况，中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟预计，到 2025 年，我 国锂电池产能很可能超 3000GWh。产能利用率方面，截至 2023 年 6 月，我国锂电池行业 产能利用率已降至 40%左右，到 2025 年产能利用率很可能降至 35%左右。有机构研报指 出，23 年底以来产业链磨底信号频传，海外主要澳矿 Core Lithium、Pilbara Minerals、 Albemarle Corp 等停减产并削减资本开支，考虑到中游制造环节大多处于头部盈利， 二三线 ...

Group 1 - The overall revenue of A-shares showed steady growth in 2023, with total revenue reaching 72.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.48%, while net profit fell by 2.70% to 5.26 billion yuan [1][10][92] - The real estate industry, along with related sectors such as construction materials and coal, significantly dragged down profit margins, while sectors like retail, social services, textiles, and automotive experienced rapid profit growth [1][10][44] - In 2024 Q1, A-share companies achieved a revenue of 16.88 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 0.16% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 4.74% to 1.43 trillion yuan [92] Group 2 - Industries such as retail, social services, textiles, media, transportation, and public utilities saw profit growth rates exceeding 50%, primarily due to low base effects from 2022 and rapid recovery post-pandemic [2][44] - The automotive sector experienced a profit growth rate of 48.12% in 2023, with China becoming the world's largest automobile exporter, shipping over 5.22 million vehicles [2][44] - Consumer sectors like food and beverage, light manufacturing, and home appliances reported profit growth rates between 10% and 20%, indicating a robust recovery in domestic consumption [2][44] Group 3 - The report suggests strategic allocation towards stable performance and low valuation sectors such as food and beverage and home appliances, which have shown good performance in annual and quarterly reports [3][94] - New productive forces such as low-altitude economy and biomanufacturing are highlighted as areas of national strategic support, indicating potential for growth [3][94][56] - The public utility sector is expected to undergo a "value reassessment," with stable performance and low valuations, alongside anticipated price adjustments in gas and water [3][59][60]