Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for increased counter-cyclical adjustments to promote economic development and mitigate local debt risks [4][9] - It highlights the support for the real estate market to stabilize and recover, with various policies being implemented to encourage market activity [3][9] Market Daily Highlights - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced five policies to support monetized resettlement housing and allow local governments to issue special bonds [2][5] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau stated that policy banks and commercial banks are permitted to issue a certain percentage of loans for the acquisition of idle land [2][5] - Shanghai adjusted its housing provident fund personal loan policy, reducing the minimum down payment ratio for second homes to 25% [2][5] Research Insights - The report notes that the three major indices fell, with a total trading volume of 1.5193 trillion yuan [3][5] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points from November 2024 to June 2025, with a final rate range of 3.25%-3.5% [3][5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as computing power, low-altitude economy, and autonomous driving as potential investment directions [3][5] Industry Research - The Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission issued a notice regarding the implementation of a green electricity trading plan, requiring new grid-connected green power enterprises to have energy storage capabilities starting September 2024 [7] - The report indicates a significant growth in the cybersecurity market, with a projected market size exceeding 800 billion yuan by 2025 [7] - In Chongqing, 1,192 key construction projects completed investments of 361.14 billion yuan in the first nine months of the year, achieving 79.5% of the annual planned investment [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights the need for increased counter-cyclical adjustments to promote economic development, particularly through supporting local governments in managing debt risks and enhancing fiscal resources for infrastructure and public services [4][10] - It emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with measures such as supporting special bonds for idle land recovery and adjusting tax policies to facilitate market recovery [4][10] - The report suggests a focus on sectors such as military industry, gold, and computing power, especially in the context of the strategic shift of industries from eastern to central and western regions of China [3][5] Market Highlights - The report notes a mixed performance in the stock market, with total trading volume reaching 1.3754 trillion yuan, and the RMB exchange rate falling to around 7.12 due to reduced expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][5] - It mentions the disappointing third-quarter orders from ASML, a major global lithography machine manufacturer, which were 2.6 billion euros, significantly below market expectations of 5.4 billion euros, raising concerns about global chip oversupply [5][8] - The report indicates that local stocks in Sichuan have strengthened due to the region's strategic importance in China's western development initiative [3][5] Policy Developments - The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Science and Technology have issued a notice to enhance financial services for key regions focused on technology innovation, aiming to build a financial system that supports technological advancements [6] - Hong Kong has announced the establishment of a 10 billion HKD innovation and technology industry guidance fund to attract investments in strategic emerging industries [6] - The National Healthcare Security Administration is conducting a special governance initiative on the use of external prescriptions in medical insurance, targeting high-risk areas for fraud [6]

Macro Events - As of the end of September, the broad money supply (M2) in China reached 309.48 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8%. In the first three quarters, new RMB loans increased by 1.602 trillion yuan, while the cumulative increase in social financing was 2.566 trillion yuan, which is 368 billion yuan less than the same period last year. This increase in M2 is attributed to a series of financial support policies that have stimulated the A-share market, leading to a return of funds from wealth management products [2]. Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.01%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.21%, and the SSE 50 Index declined by 0.19%. The real estate, banking, and building materials sectors led the gains with increases of 5.50%, 2.51%, and 2.31% respectively, while the power equipment, electronics, and retail sectors saw declines of -1.91%, -1.71%, and -1.63% respectively. The market experienced a mixed performance with a total trading volume of 1.3754 trillion yuan [3]. Industry Insights - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have been implemented, including a reduction in existing mortgage rates and adjustments to down payment ratios for second homes. The central government has emphasized the need to promote market stabilization, and local governments have introduced various incentives such as home purchase subsidies and tax benefits. These measures are expected to gradually improve the real estate sector [4]. Regional Focus - Sichuan has been identified as a strategic area for development, with the central government encouraging the transfer of funds, technology, and labor-intensive industries from eastern regions to the central and western parts of China. This has led to a significant strengthening of local stocks in Sichuan, reflecting the province's importance in the broader context of western development initiatives [3].

Monetary Policy Insights - In September 2024, M2 growth accelerated to 6.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[2] - New social financing in September was 3.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 369.2 billion yuan[2] - New RMB loans in September amounted to 1.59 trillion yuan, down 720 billion yuan year-on-year[2] Market Performance - Major indices experienced declines: Shanghai Composite Index down 2.53%, CSI 300 down 2.66%, Shenzhen Component down 2.53%, and ChiNext Index down 3.22%[3] - The defense and military industry saw a slight increase of 0.08%, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and financials faced declines of -3.27% and -3.21% respectively[3] Future Events - The 2024 Financial Street Forum will be held from October 18 to 20, focusing on financial cooperation and economic stability[4] - The BRICS summit is scheduled for October 22 to 24 in Kazan, Russia, marking the first meeting post-expansion[4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for increased counter-cyclical adjustments to promote economic development and mitigate local debt risks [4][8][10] - It highlights the support for stabilizing the real estate market through various measures, including the issuance of special bonds and adjustments to tax policies [4][8][10] - The report suggests that the overall economic environment is expected to improve with coordinated efforts from various departments [4][8][10] Market Highlights - The report notes a decline in the three major indices with a total market turnover of 16,515 billion [3][5] - It mentions that the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on future interest rate cuts has increased the probability of a 25 basis point cut in November [3][5] - The report advises focusing on sectors such as military industry, gold, and computing power due to rising risk aversion in the market [3][5] Industry Research - The report discusses the adjustment of peak and valley electricity pricing policies in Heilongjiang Province, which is expected to enhance the profitability of energy storage facilities [7] - It mentions the ambitious goal of Guangdong Province to reach a commercial aerospace industry scale of 300 billion by 2026, reflecting the rapid growth of the global commercial aerospace sector [7] - The report highlights the increase in R&D funding in Sichuan Province, which reached 135.78 billion, marking an 11.8% increase from the previous year [7]

| --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------|--------------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | 川财证券研究所晨报 \n所属部门：总量研究部 | 报告类别：其他研究报告 | 报告时间：2024 年 10 月 15 日 | | 分析师：徐国勇 | 执业证书：S1100524060001 | 联系方式：xuguoyong@cczq.com | | 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼，100073 | 深圳：福田区福华三路 | 100 号鼎和大厦 D 座 13 层 1303-1305，518026 | | 上海：浦东新区国展路 839 号，200126 | 成都：高新区交子大道 | 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼，610041 | 每日热点 工信部副部长王江平：将联合证监会推出第三批区域性股权市场"专精特新"专板。 市场监管总局：将引导平台企业用流量帮助平台内商户提升品牌知名度 扩大市场交易 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for increased counter-cyclical fiscal policies to promote high-quality economic development in China [4][20][36] - It highlights the importance of supporting local governments in managing debt risks and increasing debt limits to alleviate financial pressures [24][26][28] - The report suggests that the real estate market is expected to stabilize with coordinated efforts from various departments to implement supportive policies [30][35] Economic Policies - The Ministry of Finance plans to introduce a series of targeted incremental policy measures to support economic growth, expand domestic demand, and mitigate risks [6][19] - Specific measures include supporting local governments in resolving hidden debt issues and enhancing the capital base of state-owned commercial banks [6][36] - The report indicates that there is significant room for increasing fiscal deficits and borrowing to support economic initiatives [36] Real Estate Market - The report discusses measures to stabilize the real estate market, including the recovery of idle land and the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [30][31] - It notes that recent policies, such as lowering mortgage rates and down payment requirements, aim to promote market recovery [35][36] Consumer Confidence and Inflation - The report mentions that the U.S. consumer confidence index for October has decreased, indicating potential economic concerns [5] - It also highlights that China's CPI rose by 0.4% year-on-year in September, while PPI fell by 2.8%, reflecting mixed economic signals [6][8]

川财证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 加大逆周期条件，推动经济发展 | | —宏观动态点评 | | 所属部门：总量研究部 | 报告类别：宏观研究报告 | 报告时间：2024 年 10 月 12 日 | | 分析师：陈雳 | 执业证书：S1100517060001 | 联系方式：chenli@cczq.com | | 联系人：马骏 | 执业证书：S1100123090005 | 联系方式：majun@cczq.com | | 上海： 浦东新区国展路 839 号，200126 北京： 丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 ...

Core Views - The report indicates that the Chinese government is committed to enhancing infrastructure cooperation with ASEAN countries, focusing on railways and ports, and exploring unilateral opening measures towards ASEAN nations [2][6] - The People's Bank of China has announced the establishment of a "Securities, Fund, and Insurance Company Swap Convenience," with an initial operation scale of 500 billion yuan, which may be expanded based on circumstances [3][6] - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as autonomous driving, undervalued high-dividend companies, and low-altitude economy as potential investment directions [3][9] Market Overview - On October 8, major indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 6.62%, the CSI 300 down by 7.05%, and the Shenzhen Component down by 8.15% [4][11] - The report highlights that the significant fluctuations in indices are primarily due to profit-taking behaviors following rapid increases, while medium to long-term prospects remain positive due to coordinated monetary and fiscal policies [4][11] - The report notes that the total investment demand for urban gas, water supply, drainage, and heating network renovations over the next five years is approximately 4 trillion yuan, with nearly 600,000 kilometers of infrastructure needing upgrades [4][11] Industry Insights - The report discusses the recent developments in the photovoltaic industry, particularly the draft management measures for distributed photovoltaic power generation, which will allow these projects to participate in the electricity market [9] - It also mentions the growth of smart manufacturing, with the number of "lighthouse factories" increasing to 172, significantly improving labor productivity through various digital solutions [9] - The tourism sector in Chengdu saw a total of 23.79 million visitors during the National Day holiday, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with tourism revenue reaching 22.65 billion yuan, up 8.9% [9]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|------------|------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------| | 川财证券研究所晨报 | | | 川财证券研究报告 | | 所属部门：总量研究部 | | 报告类别：其他研究报告 | 报告时间： 2024 年 10 月 10 日 | | 分析师：徐国勇 | 执业证书： | S1100524060001 | 联系方式： xuguoyong@cczq.com | | 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼， | 100073 | 深圳：福田区福华三路 | 100 号鼎和大厦 D 座 13 层 1303-1305，518026 | | 上海：浦东新区国展路 839 号， 200126 | | 成都：高新区交子大道 | 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼， 610041 | ❖ 每日热点 中办、国办：加大中央预算内投资对数据基础设施、 ...