Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for macroeconomic policies to address the current economic challenges, particularly focusing on enhancing effective demand through investment and consumption [2] - It highlights the projected investment demand of approximately 4 trillion yuan for the renovation of nearly 600,000 kilometers of urban gas, water supply, and heating networks over the next five years [2] - The report notes a significant decline in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 6.62% and the ChiNext Index falling by 10.59%, indicating market volatility [3] Market Analysis - The report details the performance of various sectors, with electronics, computers, and non-bank financials experiencing relatively lower declines of -3.69%, -4.61%, and -5.84% respectively, while media, power equipment, and social services faced larger drops of -11.00%, -10.95%, and -9.69% [3] - It suggests that the recent market fluctuations are primarily driven by profit-taking behaviors following rapid index increases, but anticipates a gradual economic recovery supported by coordinated monetary and fiscal policies [3] Upcoming Events - The report mentions an upcoming Tesla event on October 11, where the company will unveil its Robotaxi, expected to feature the latest full self-driving technology, potentially accelerating the adoption of autonomous driving applications [4] - It also notes a press conference by the Ministry of Finance on October 12, aimed at discussing enhanced fiscal policy measures to support high-quality economic development [4]

Monetary Policy Actions - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio effective September 27, 2024[2] - The weighted average reserve requirement ratio after the cut will be approximately 6.6%[2] Economic Implications - The decision to lower the reserve requirement is aimed at supporting economic growth while considering the current net interest margin of banks[2] - The reduction is expected to provide around 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market, enhancing banks' willingness to lend[2] Market Confidence - This reduction is the largest since early this year, reflecting the central bank's commitment to stabilizing growth and boosting market confidence[2] - The rapid implementation of the policy, occurring just three days after the announcement, indicates a consistent macroeconomic policy approach[2] Future Outlook - There remains potential for further reductions in the reserve requirement ratio within the year, as the average ratio is still higher compared to major international economies[2] - The central government's recent meetings suggest a more proactive stance on fiscal and monetary policy adjustments to support economic stability[2]

Core Views - The report highlights that the economic fundamentals in China remain unchanged, with significant market potential and strong economic resilience [3][7] - It suggests focusing on sectors such as autonomous driving, electronics, and non-bank financial services [3][7] Daily Market Highlights - The three major indices strengthened, with total trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan [5] - The market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November and December has decreased due to recent U.S. non-farm employment data [5] - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen above 4% [5] Policy Developments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [4][8] - The average reduction in existing mortgage rates is about 0.5 percentage points, aimed at alleviating the pressure on borrowers and boosting market confidence [4][8] - New monetary policy tools are being created to support the stability of the stock market [8] Infrastructure Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is prioritizing support for urban renewal projects, particularly underground pipeline construction, with an estimated total investment demand of 4 trillion yuan over the next five years [5][9] - The NDRC plans to expedite the implementation of policies to boost the capital market and facilitate the entry of long-term funds [5][9] Sector-Specific Insights - The solid-state battery industry is experiencing rapid development, with predictions that global shipments will reach 614.1 GWh by 2030, with a market size exceeding 250 billion yuan [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of solid-state batteries in enhancing energy density and safety, which could position them as a key technology in the lithium battery sector [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Chinese government is taking effective measures to stabilize the real estate market and ensure housing delivery [2][5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, which is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to support credit growth [4][10] - The average reduction in existing mortgage rates is about 0.5 percentage points, aimed at alleviating the financial burden on homeowners and boosting market confidence [4][10] Group 2 - The report indicates that the U.S. labor market showed strong performance in September, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 254,000, exceeding market expectations [3][8] - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as autonomous driving, non-bank financials, and electronics for potential investment opportunities [3][8] - The Chongqing region has seen significant growth in the intelligent connected new energy vehicle sector, with production value reaching 466.83 billion yuan, contributing 75.1% to the city's industrial output growth [8]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and the implementation of financial policies to enhance economic vitality, suggesting a focus on sectors with restructuring expectations, undervalued state-owned enterprises, and the non-bank financial industry [2][4][7] Market Highlights - The People's Bank of China held its third-quarter monetary policy committee meeting on September 25, 2024, emphasizing the need for precise monetary policy adjustments to maintain reasonable liquidity and guide credit growth [5] - The report notes that from January to August 2024, state-owned enterprises generated total operating income of 5,381.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while total profits decreased by 2.1% to 288.37 billion yuan [5] Monetary Policy Analysis - The central bank announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to stimulate credit growth in key economic sectors [3][7] - The average reduction in existing mortgage rates is about 0.5 percentage points, aimed at alleviating the financial burden on homeowners and boosting market confidence [7][8] Sector Focus - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors undergoing restructuring, particularly those benefiting from merger and acquisition policies that could enhance performance [2][4] - There is a recommendation to pay attention to undervalued state-owned enterprises with high dividend yields, as new regulations require these companies to disclose plans for improving valuations [2][4] Industry Developments - The report discusses the recovery of the multi-layer ceramic capacitor (MLCC) market, with a 5.4% increase in total shipments in the second quarter, driven by demand from consumer electronics and AI servers [6] - The transportation sector is encouraged to adopt new energy solutions, including the construction of charging infrastructure and hydrogen stations, to support carbon reduction efforts [6]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------|------------|------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 川财证券研究所晨报 \n所属部门：总量研究部 | | 报告类别：其他研究报告 | 报告时间： 2024 年 9 月 27 日 | | 分析师：徐国勇 | 执业证书： | S1100524060001 | 联系方式： xuguoyong@cczq.com | | 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼，100073 | | 深圳：福田区福华三路 | 100 号鼎和大厦 D 座 13 层 1303-1305 ， 518026 | | 上海：浦东新区国展路 839 号， 200126 | | 成都：高新区交子大道 | 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼， 610041 | ❖ 每日热点 中共中央政治局：要加大财政货币政策逆周期调节力度。 中央金融办、 ...

Policy Changes - The central bank announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market[2] - Existing mortgage rates will be lowered by an average of 0.5 percentage points, aimed at alleviating the financial burden on homeowners and boosting market confidence[2] - New monetary policy tools will be created to support the stability of the stock market, enhancing the ability of securities, funds, and insurance companies to access capital[2] Market Context - The timing of the reserve requirement cut aligns with the recent 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, easing pressure on the RMB/USD exchange rate[2] - The reduction in mortgage rates is a response to the widening interest rate gap between existing and new loans, as well as the narrowing net interest margins for banks[2] - The new policy measures are expected to channel more funds into key sectors such as technology innovation, advanced manufacturing, and green development[2]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range from 5.25%-5.5% to 4.75%-5% [4][7] - This marks the beginning of a new rate-cutting cycle, which has historically occurred during economic crises [4][7] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.4% by the end of the year, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than previous forecasts [4][7] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The market anticipates further easing from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) due to reduced interest rate differentials and exchange rate pressures [9] - The recent depreciation of the USD against the RMB indicates that the market has largely priced in the Fed's rate cut [9] - Long-term expectations suggest that the RMB may strengthen against the USD as the Fed continues its rate-cutting cycle [9] Group 3: Industry Developments - The Guangdong provincial government has issued measures to support the development of the new energy vehicle industry and related sectors [7] - The establishment of a national-level energy storage testing center in Dongguan is encouraged, highlighting the growth potential in the energy storage industry [7] - The Robotics X lab of Tencent has unveiled its fifth-generation robot, showcasing advancements in robotics technology [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent monetary policy changes by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to lower the average loan interest rates for existing mortgages by approximately 0.5 percentage points [2][3][5] - The report emphasizes the potential for further monetary easing depending on market liquidity conditions, with a possibility of additional cuts to the reserve requirement ratio later this year [3][6] - The report suggests that the coordinated policy measures are aimed at injecting liquidity into the real economy and capital markets, with a focus on sectors such as diversified finance and companies with restructuring expectations [3][5] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, reducing the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75% to 5%, which is slightly above market expectations [4][9] - Historical context is provided, indicating that similar 50 basis point cuts have occurred during critical economic downturns, such as the tech bubble burst in 2001, the financial crisis in 2007, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [4][9] - The report predicts that the U.S. economic recession pressure remains, despite the Fed's actions to alleviate concerns about a hard landing, as inflation remains sticky with the core CPI at 3.2% year-on-year [4][9] Industry Focus - The report discusses the energy storage sector, highlighting initiatives in Deyang, Sichuan, aimed at promoting green energy transition and enhancing energy storage capabilities [7] - Specific measures include increasing the scale of biomass power generation, advancing natural gas power projects, and developing a comprehensive energy storage industry chain by 2025 [7] - The report also mentions Huawei's advancements in its HarmonyOS ecosystem, indicating a significant growth in developer engagement and application availability, which may impact the technology sector positively [7]

| --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 川财证券研究所晨报 | | | | 所属部门：总量研究部 | 报告类别：其他研究报告 | 报告时间： 2024 年 9 月 24 日 | | 分析师：徐国勇 | 执业证书： S1100524060001 | 联系方式： xuguoyong@cczq.com | | 北京：丰台区金丽南路华电产融大厦 11 楼，100073 | 深圳：福田区福华三路 | 100 号鼎和大厦 D 座 13 层 1303-1305 ， 518026 | | 上海：浦东新区国展路 839 号， 200126 | 成都：高新区交子大道 | 177 号中海国际中心 B 座 17 楼， 610041 | ❖ 每日热点 央行：人民银行将一如既往地加强与澳门的金融合作 支持澳门经济适度多元发展。 国资委：以实施国企改革深 ...