CAICT 中国信通院 ［幸运 트题报告 ■ | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------|-------|-------|-------|--------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 全球 5G | | | | 标准必要专利 | | 中国信息通信研究院知识产权与创新发展中心 2024年9月 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | 版权声明 | | | | | | 本报告版权属于中国信息通信研究院，并受法律保护。 转载、摘编或利用其它方式使用本报告文字或者观点的，应 | | | 注明"来源：中国信息通信研究院"。违反上述声明者，本 | | 前 言 自 2021 年 3GPP 立项通过 5G 标准 Rel-18 版本的首批项目以来， 5G ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growing demand for computing power driven by the digital transformation and AI advancements, highlighting the importance of all-optical networks as a foundational infrastructure for supporting computing resources [3][7] - It identifies four key demands for the development of all-optical networks in the computing era: high-quality cloud access, urban computing interconnectivity, interconnectivity between hubs, and intelligent network scheduling [9][30] - The report outlines the target architecture and key technology systems for all-optical networks, aiming to provide flexible and high-quality access to computing resources [32][50] Summary by Sections 1. High-Quality Innovation Development in the Computing Era - The report discusses the increasing requirements for computing and network integration services due to AI advancements and the need for high-quality communication networks to support distributed computing clusters [7][8] - It highlights global initiatives and policies aimed at enhancing optical network infrastructure to support digital economy growth [8] 2. Four Key Demand Characteristics of All-Optical Networks - Stability in bandwidth to support increasing data flow demands [9] - High reliability and security to ensure seamless operation of intelligent computing services [10] - Deterministic low latency to support distributed computing innovations [10] - Intelligent services for automated resource scheduling and management [10] 3. Target Architecture and Key Technologies for All-Optical Networks - The target architecture consists of four components: computing access networks (DCA), interconnect networks (DCI), data center networks (DCN), and unified scheduling systems [32] - The report emphasizes the need for high-capacity interconnects between data centers to meet the demands of large-scale AI models [27][50] 4. High-Quality Cloud Access - The report outlines the global shift towards 10Gbps optical access networks, with various countries implementing plans to enhance broadband connectivity [11][12] - It details the increasing bandwidth demands from smart homes and enterprises, driven by diverse applications and devices [12][16] 5. Urban Computing Interconnectivity - The report highlights the critical need for low-latency networks in sectors like finance, where microsecond-level latency savings are essential [23][24] - It discusses the construction of urban networks with a target latency of under 1ms to enhance real-time computing services [24] 6. Interconnectivity Between Hubs - The report notes the significant bandwidth requirements for distributed AI model training, necessitating high-capacity interconnects between data centers [25][27] - It emphasizes the importance of reliability in data center interconnect networks to minimize downtime during critical operations [29] 7. Intelligent Network Scheduling - The report discusses the integration of AI and big data technologies to enhance the operational efficiency of all-optical networks [30][31] - It outlines the goal of achieving automated and intelligent management of network resources to support diverse computing applications [31]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Digital trade is increasingly recognized as a vital component of global trade, with its share in total exports rising to 13.8% in 2023, up 1.4 percentage points from 2022 [11] - The global digital trade rules are evolving, with "pure digital" agreements leading the way, reflecting a shift towards more flexible and efficient negotiation frameworks [4][25] - Emerging economies are beginning to play a significant role in shaping digital trade rules, with countries like Singapore, China, and India actively participating in the development of new regulations [4][39] Summary by Sections 1. New Situations Facing Digital Trade Rule Formulation - The importance of digital trade is growing, with geographical shifts in trade patterns, particularly towards Asia [10][12] - New digital technologies are driving changes in international trade methods, although disparities in global development remain pronounced [15] - The regulatory environment for digital trade is becoming increasingly stringent, impacting the pace of digital trade growth [19] 2. Overall Progress of Digital Trade Rules - A new multi-layered structure of global digital trade rules is emerging, characterized by multilateral, bilateral, and regional agreements [24][25] - There is a noticeable divergence in the progress of digital trade facilitation and liberalization topics, with consumer trust rules advancing more rapidly [34][35] - Emerging economies are starting to play a crucial role in rule-making, with a significant increase in the number of digital trade agreements signed in Asia [37][38] 3. Latest Trends in Key Rules and Issues - New technology rules are beginning to emerge, enhancing innovation cooperation and supply chain resilience [55] - Artificial intelligence has become a focal point, prompting discussions on new and existing regulatory frameworks [59] - Rules governing cross-border data flow are entering a new adjustment phase, with ongoing evolution in rule templates [65] 4. Outlook for Digital Trade Rules - The importance of digital inclusivity is expected to rise, with a focus on bridging the digital divide and enhancing access to digital technologies [74] - Environmental sustainability in the digital economy is becoming a new focal point, with international organizations emphasizing the need for sustainable practices [77] - The development of rules related to artificial intelligence and emerging technologies is gaining momentum, with various countries actively pursuing regulatory frameworks [79]

Industry Overview - The 2024 Government Work Report introduced the "AI+" strategic action, aiming to empower various industries with AI, particularly through large models that drive intelligent transformation in software engineering [3] - Intelligent software development tools, leveraging large models, significantly reduce technical barriers for developers and enhance development efficiency and quality [3] - Despite advancements, challenges remain in areas such as model selection, tool integration, and scenario-specific implementation [3] Intelligent Development Evolution - Software engineering has evolved through three stages: Software Engineering 1.0 (structured methods), 2.0 (agile development), and 3.0 (intelligent software engineering driven by large models) [6][7][8] - Software Engineering 3.0 focuses on AI-driven tools that enhance the entire software lifecycle, including development, testing, and operations, with core characteristics like intelligence, data-driven processes, and adaptability [10][11][12] Market and Tool Landscape - The intelligent development tool market is rapidly growing, with GitHub Copilot leading with 1.8 million paid subscribers and a 64.5% market share as of April 2024 [14] - Domestic tools, such as those from Huawei, Alibaba, and Baidu, are also emerging, with over 40 tools available, though performance and user experience vary [14] - Tools are increasingly adopted across industries, including tech, finance, telecom, and manufacturing, with significant efficiency gains reported [14][15] Core Capabilities of Intelligent Development - Key capabilities include code generation, code completion, unit test generation, code conversion, code explanation, and code inspection [32][33][37][42][46] - These capabilities aim to improve coding efficiency, code quality, and developer productivity, with tools like GitHub Copilot showing a 55% increase in coding speed and 46% more code written [15][16] Challenges in Intelligent Development - Organizations face challenges in cultural transformation, talent acquisition, and integrating AI tools with existing workflows [19][20] - Technical challenges include model selection, tool integration, and ensuring security across data, models, and tools [20][21] Case Studies - **Cloud Services**: A major cloud service provider implemented intelligent development tools, achieving a 57% unit test coverage rate and generating over 2.2 million lines of AI-generated code [81][82] - **Software Services**: A software service company developed an AI-powered platform, reducing project communication time from weeks to days and improving development efficiency by 30% [84][85] - **Power Industry**: A state grid company used AI tools to improve code quality and reduce project delivery time by 40%, with code quality scores exceeding 90% [87][89] - **Finance**: A state-owned bank leveraged AI tools to convert legacy Flex code to React, achieving a 40% accuracy rate and significantly improving unit test coverage [91][93] - **Manufacturing**: A leading home appliance manufacturer adopted AI tools to enhance code readability and development efficiency, addressing challenges in code maintenance and innovation [95]

Global Domain Name Management and Registration Services - The global domain name management system remains stable, with ICANN continuing to improve governance and policy innovation [9] - The global domain name registration market grew by 1.6% in 2023, reaching 369 million registrations, with ccTLDs growing by 2.2% and gTLDs by 1.2% [27] - The market concentration of domain name service providers slightly decreased, with the top 10 gTLD registrars accounting for 57.3% of the market [39] China's Domain Name Registration Services and Chinese Domain Development - China's domain name registration market reached 31.6 million in 2023, with ".CN" and ".中国" accounting for 61.2% of the market [42] - The geographical distribution of domain name service providers in China is concentrated, with Beijing, Guangdong, and Shanghai hosting 88.2% of the registered domain name management institutions [45] - Chinese domain names face challenges in user awareness and universal applicability, with global Chinese domain registrations exceeding 800,000 [51] International Domain Infrastructure and Application Services - The global deployment of root mirror servers continues to expand, with 1,751 root servers (including mirrors) by the end of 2023, covering over 160 countries and regions [54] - The number of root servers in Asia reached 482, the highest among all regions, with Africa and South America showing the fastest growth rates [56]

Group 1: Digital Economy and New Quality Productivity - The digital economy is a crucial driver for cultivating new quality productivity, aligning with high-quality development goals[2] - From 2016 to 2022, China's digital economy grew at an average annual compound rate of 14.3%, 1.7 times the global average[12] - The government work report for 2024 emphasizes accelerating the development of new quality productivity as a top priority[12] Group 2: Transformation of Production Factors - The digital economy has transformed labor objects, integrating data as a new component alongside traditional labor objects, enhancing production capabilities[14] - New materials and energy sources are emerging as labor objects, contributing to green and low-carbon economic transitions, with the new materials industry exceeding 5 trillion yuan in output value in 2023[18] - Labor materials are evolving from physical to digital forms, with the digitalization of production tools significantly enhancing productivity[20] Group 3: New Laborers and Employment Models - Digital technology has significantly improved laborers' digital skills, leading to the emergence of flexible employment models such as gig and freelance work[25] - As of 2023, over 200 million individuals are engaged in flexible employment in China, reflecting a shift in labor dynamics[25] - The number of new digital occupations has increased, with 158 new job categories identified, 97 of which are digital roles[25] Group 4: Innovation and Technological Advancement - The digital economy accelerates the emergence of disruptive technologies, enhancing the efficiency and scale of innovation processes[27] - AI and big data are transforming scientific research, significantly speeding up discovery and application processes[28] - Collaborative innovation is becoming more prevalent, with reduced barriers to cooperation among various market players, leading to faster development cycles[30]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a slight recovery in the market capitalization of listed internet companies in China, with a total market value of 9.95 trillion yuan as of June 2024, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.9% [3][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the market capitalization of China's listed internet companies has rebounded due to a significant decline in inflation data globally and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have boosted market confidence [3]. - The top 10 internet companies account for 79.5% of the total market capitalization, with Tencent leading at 31,794.6 billion yuan, showing a growth rate of 22.0% [8]. - The total revenue of listed internet companies in China reached 11,770 billion yuan in Q1 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11%, indicating a recovery in the domestic economy and increased consumer spending [12][11]. Summary by Sections Market Capitalization - As of June 30, 2024, the total market capitalization of listed internet companies in China is 9.95 trillion yuan, up 5.9% from the previous quarter [3]. - The top 10 companies represent 79.5% of the total market capitalization, with Tencent, Pinduoduo, and Alibaba being the top three [8]. Revenue Performance - The total revenue for Q1 2024 was 11,770 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, which is 2.1 percentage points higher than the previous year [12]. - The top 10 companies accounted for 89.3% of the total revenue, with significant contributions from Tencent, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo, driven by advancements in AI and a recovering economy [17].

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industries discussed [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of green transformation in industrial supply chains, particularly in the steel and new energy vehicle industries, as a key driver for achieving carbon neutrality and sustainable development [3][4] - It highlights the global consensus on green supply chain development, with major economies actively promoting green policies and forming alliances to secure critical resources and technologies [14][15] - The report identifies 12 key implementation paths for green development in supply chains, focusing on green supply, demand, and full-chain optimization [4][51] Summary by Sections Latest Trends in Green Development of Industrial Supply Chains - Industrial supply chains are crucial for green transformation, covering energy, resources, production, and recycling processes [9] - Global competition is shifting towards green supply chains, with major economies implementing policies to strengthen their positions [14] - China is advancing green supply chain development through digitalization, policy support, and technological innovation [20][21] Key Paths for Green Development in Industrial Supply Chains - The steel and new energy vehicle industries are used as case studies to illustrate green supply chain practices [24] - Steel industry: Focuses on energy and resource greenization, technological innovation, and logistics optimization [28][32] - New energy vehicle industry: Emphasizes green energy use, resource recycling, and digital empowerment [26][34] Implementation Paths for Green Development - **Energy Greenization**: Companies like Baowu Steel and CATL are investing in green energy projects and renewable energy partnerships [28] - **Resource Greenization**: Enterprises are adopting green procurement practices and setting standards for sustainable materials [29] - **Technological Innovation**: Companies are leading in green technology R&D and process optimization, such as hydrogen-based steel production [32][33] - **Logistics Greenization**: Adoption of electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles for cleaner transportation [34] Demand Greenization - Companies are creating green product brands and certifications to drive consumer demand for sustainable products [36] - Green orders and differentiated product development are expanding market opportunities [37] - Enhanced after-sales services and user experiences are promoting green product adoption [38] Full-Chain Greenization - Industry consolidation and mergers are improving efficiency and green capabilities [39] - Collaborative projects and comprehensive entities are being established to optimize resource use and reduce emissions [42][44] - Digital platforms are enabling real-time monitoring and optimization of energy and resource use [47][48] Path Promotion and Industry Differences - The steel industry focuses on optimizing existing supply chains, while the new energy vehicle industry is building green ecosystems from the ground up [54] - Government roles differ, with more intervention in emerging industries like new energy vehicles [54]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the eSIM industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - eSIM technology is a significant evolution in the SIM card industry, offering a digital, non-physical SIM solution that enhances device flexibility, security, and reduces manufacturing and logistics costs [8] - The technology is particularly beneficial for IoT devices, smartwatches, smart homes, and automotive systems, enabling remote management and frequent network switching [3] - eSIM adoption is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing demand for connected devices and the transition to 5G networks [18][23] eSIM Technology Overview - eSIM (embedded SIM) separates the hardware carrier from the card data, allowing remote management of SIM profiles via over-the-air (OTA) updates [8] - The technology supports multiple implementation methods, including eUICC, TEE, eSE, and iUICC, with eUICC being the most widely adopted due to its comprehensive standard ecosystem [8] - eSIM technology reduces environmental impact by minimizing the use of natural resources and lowering carbon emissions during production and transportation [8] Global eSIM Development History - The development of eSIM technology has evolved from initial technical exploration to commercial promotion and global adoption [9] - Early challenges included hardware design, durability, and compatibility, which were gradually overcome through advancements in technology and industry collaboration [10][12] - Major companies like Apple, Sierra Wireless, and Qualcomm have played pivotal roles in advancing eSIM technology, with Apple integrating eSIM into its Apple Watch, iPad, and iPhone series [12][13] Global eSIM Industry Status Consumer Devices - Smartphones dominate the eSIM consumer device market, accounting for 60% of all eSIM-enabled devices as of June 2023 [19] - The number of eSIM-enabled smartphone models has grown 6.5 times since December 2018, reaching 181 models by June 2023 [19][20] - Smartwatches and tablets are also significant segments, with 67.1% of cellular-enabled smartwatches supporting eSIM in 2022 [22] IoT and Industrial Applications - By the end of 2023, eSIM connections in the IoT sector are expected to reach nearly 200 million, with further growth anticipated as 5G networks expand [23] - eSIM technology is increasingly adopted in industrial applications such as smart manufacturing, remote monitoring, and logistics management [24] - Companies like ARM, Infineon, and Giesecke+Devrient are actively developing eSIM solutions for industrial IoT devices [16][17] Chip and Card Manufacturers - Global eSIM chip shipments for smartphones reached 230 million units in 2022, with projections of 350 million units by 2024 [25] - Key players include Qualcomm, Giesecke+Devrient, Unisoc, and Wuhan Tianyu, which provide eSIM solutions across various devices and industries [26][27][28] Operators and Service Providers - As of June 2023, nearly 400 mobile service providers in 116 countries offer commercial eSIM services for smartphones, an eightfold increase since December 2018 [30][31] - Major operators like AT&T, Verizon, Deutsche Telekom, and NTT DoCoMo have been early adopters, offering eSIM services across multiple devices and industries [32][33] Global eSIM Technology Development Technology Evolution - eSIM technology has evolved from traditional SIM cards to embedded solutions, with standards developed by organizations like GSMA, ETSI, and TCA [36][47][53] - The GSMA has established a comprehensive eSIM standard system, covering both M2M and Consumer solutions, ensuring interoperability and security [47][48] International Standardization - GSMA, ETSI, and TCA have been instrumental in developing eSIM standards, focusing on interoperability, security, and compliance testing [47][53] - The GSMA's eSIM standards, including SGP.01, SGP.21, and SGP.31, are widely recognized and adopted globally [47][48] Domestic Standardization in China - China's eSIM standardization efforts are led by CCSA and TAF, with a focus on IoT and consumer electronics applications [54] - Key standards include YD/T 3515-2019 and YD/T 4640-2023, which align with international standards while addressing local industry needs [54] Global eSIM Application Analysis United States - Major US operators like AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile have been early adopters of eSIM technology, offering services for smartphones, smartwatches, and IoT devices [60] - eSIM adoption is growing due to its convenience, particularly for international travelers and IoT applications [60] Japan - Japanese operators such as NTT DoCoMo, SoftBank, and KDDI have introduced eSIM services, with increasing adoption in smartphones, smartwatches, and IoT devices [61] - The Japanese government's push for digitalization and IoT development supports the growth of eSIM technology [61] Europe - European operators like Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, and Orange have launched eSIM services, with growing adoption in smartphones and IoT devices [62] - eSIM technology is expected to see increased penetration across Europe as more devices support the technology [62] China - Chinese operators, including China Unicom, China Mobile, and China Telecom, have been actively promoting eSIM technology, particularly in IoT and wearable devices [63] - The rapid development of 5G networks and IoT applications is driving eSIM adoption in industries like smart homes and automotive [63] Future Trends - By 2025, global eSIM smartphone connections are expected to reach 1 billion, growing to 7 billion by 2030, accounting for 76% of total smartphone connections [64] - In the IoT sector, eSIM connections are projected to increase from 3.5 billion in 2023 to 5.8 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in 5G and IoT technologies [65] - eSIM technology will continue to enable smarter, more connected, and efficient devices, transforming various industries and daily life [65]

Industry Overview - The digital transformation era is characterized by rapid market changes, 24/7 services, shorter product lifecycles, and increased customization [7] - The frequency of new product releases has significantly increased across various sectors, such as 3C electronics, cosmetics, and home appliances, with some brands like SHEIN launching new products daily [8][9] - Distributed and cloud-native architectures offer agility and faster response to market demands but come with challenges like longer service chains and increased complexity [10] Impact of System Downtime - System downtime can cost small businesses $423 per minute and large organizations over $9,000 per minute [11] - A 2-hour system outage in 2017 caused a listed logistics company to lose billions of yuan, leading to resource wastage and operational disruptions [12] Case Studies: Production Environment Stress Testing - SF Express, in collaboration with Takin, conducted a full-link stress test during the 2021 Double 11 shopping festival, identifying 374 issues across 330 services and 6,400 agents, ensuring zero failures during the event [15][16] - SF Express outperformed another enterprise (B) in stress testing, with 18.6x more systems tested simultaneously, 66x more services tested, and 200x more traffic generated [21] Challenges in Digital System Stability - 85% of system failures are reported by users, highlighting inefficiencies in monitoring and issue detection [30] - Key challenges include fragmented data, high costs of data validation, and low accuracy of alerts, especially in microservices architectures [31] - Complex digital systems face issues across design, coding, testing, release, and monitoring stages, such as single points of failure, improper caching, and inefficient emergency response [33] Framework for Stability Assurance - The stability assurance framework focuses on reducing major failures, meeting business growth needs, and ensuring rapid issue detection, localization, and resolution [54][55] - Key steps include risk prevention, performance stress testing, and emergency response, with a goal of achieving 1-minute issue detection, 5-minute localization, and 10-minute resolution [74] Best Practices in Stability Assurance - Organizations should establish clear governance structures, including decision-making, management, and execution layers, to ensure effective stability assurance [77] - Regular training, drills, and assessments are essential to build and maintain the capabilities of teams involved in stability assurance [91][95]