证券研 究报告 y 社会服务 报告日期：2024 年3 月11日 CPI 超预期修复，促销费政策落地可期 ——社服行业周报 核心观点： 华龙证券研究所  本周（2024.3.4-2024.3.8）社会服务指数跑输上证综指、沪 投资评级：增持（维持） 深 300、中小板指数，跑赢创业板指、深圳成指和中证 500 等 基准指数。社会服务指数跌幅-0.31%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.25pct。重点子板块中，餐饮及景区受到节后线下餐饮消费 最近一年走势 场景回归正常化与休闲出行热情延续的催动，板块表现亮眼。 社服行业子板块涨幅由高到低分别为餐饮（+5.07%）、景区 （+4.27%）、休闲综合（+2.00%）、教育（-1.08%）、酒店（-2.05%）、 人力资源（-4.57%）、旅游零售（-6.09%）。  2 月份 CPI 超预期转正，若后续 CPI 能持续为正且剪刀差继续 为负，则消费板块超额收益或将再次显现。2024 年 2 月份， 全国居民消费价格同比上涨 0.7%。其中，城市上涨 0.8%，农 村上涨0.5%；食品价格下降 0.9%，非食品价格上涨 1.1%；消 费品价格下降 0.1%，服务价格 ...

美元离岸人民币 7.1951 0.02 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|--------------|-----------| | | 沪深指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 3043.83 | -0.4 | | 深证成指 | 9604.99 | -0.27 | | 中小 100 | 5920.41 | -0.23 | | 创业板指 | 1895.15 | -0.57 | | 沪深 300 | 3572.36 | -0.7 | | | 海外市场指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 道琼斯 | 39043.32 | 0.1 | | 纳斯达克 | 16177.77 | -0.54 | | 标普 500 | 5165.31 | -0.19 | | 英国富时 100 | 7772.17 | 0.31 | | 日经 225 | 38580.02 | -0.3 | | 恒生指数 | 17082.11 | -0.07 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|------ ...

Economic and Policy Environment - In February, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, reversing a decline of 0.8% in the previous month, primarily due to seasonal factors and increased travel service prices [1] - The 5-year LPR was lowered by 25 basis points, which is expected to promote recovery in the real estate market and boost consumer spending [2][52] - The central bank's liquidity remains reasonably ample, supported by a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut, providing long-term liquidity of 1 trillion yuan [56][99] Market Analysis - February saw a general upward trend in the market, with major indices such as the ChiNext Index rising by 14.85% and the STAR 50 Index by 17.94% [19][30] - The market is currently in a favorable configuration period, with risk premium rates indicating a good window for investment opportunities [13][96] - The overall performance of various sectors was positive, particularly in technology (TMT), which was catalyzed by advancements in AI technology [39][63] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that the market is still in a configuration period, suggesting potential for medium to long-term investments [11][94] - The focus for the upcoming trading days should be on sectors such as healthcare, consumer goods, finance, and real estate [31][91] - The overall valuation of major indices remains low, with many industry indices close to their historical minimums, indicating potential for future growth [86][88]

证 券研究报告 计算机 报告日期：2024年 3月 11日 多模态 AI 进程加速，AI 应用有望全面启航 ———计算机行业周报 华龙证券研究所 摘要：  上周，国内外多个文生图片、文生视频、文生3D大模型密集发布，多 投资评级：推荐（维持） 模态AI热度持续。2024《政府工作报告》中提出开展“人工智能+” 行动，打造具有国际竞争力的数字产业集群。我们认为在政策和技术 最近一年走势 双因素催化下，国内AI应用将加速落地，维持计算机行业“推荐”评 30 沪深300 计算机 级。 20 10  国内外 AI+产品密集发布，AI 3D 建模产品 DUSt3R 在 Github 引起关 0 注。DUSt3R 可以显著提高 3D 建模的制作效率，缩短制作周期。我们 -10 -20 认为 AI+2D、AI+3D 等 AI 产品的持续迭代将进一步推动 AI 在下游产 -30 业落地。相关产品在游戏、影视、教育和电商等行业中的应用已为各 -40 -50 行业带来显著降本效果。海外GTC和GDC大会启动在即，从会议议程 安排中看，AI算力、AI游戏、AI 3D等主题在列。我们建议关注事件 相对沪深 300走势2024/3 ...

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证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 报告日期：2024年 03月 12日 两会聚焦能源发展，氢能首次纳入政府工作报告 ——电新&公用行业周报 华龙证券研究所 摘要：  行情回顾：本周申万电新板块涨幅 0.62%，涨幅在 31 个行业中 投资评级：推荐（维持） 排名第 11；申万公用板块涨幅 4.23%，涨幅在 31个行业中排名 第 3。同期沪深 300涨幅 0.20%，万得全 A跌幅 0.04%。 最近一年走势  氢能行业：氢能首次进入政府工作报告。《政府工作报告》指 沪深300 电新 出，要“加快前沿新兴氢能、新材料、创新药等产业发展”，将 5% 0% 氢能视作培育新兴产业的重要方向。此前 2019 年政府工作报告 -5% 中曾“要推动充电、加氢等设施建设”。2024 年以来，年初地方 -10% -15% 两会上有 22 个省级行政区将氢能写入政府工作报告。伴随重大 -20% -25% 项目相继投产，行业景气度将实现快速提升。个股方面建议关 -30% 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 1 注华光环能、昇辉科技、石化机械、科威尔等。 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 -3 -3 -3 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a long-term upward trend in prosperity due to the alleviation of downward risks from supply-side capacity expansion, the exit of high-cost overseas production, and demand catalyzed by large-scale equipment updates and consumer product replacement programs. High-value new materials are expected to grow with industrial upgrades [5][7]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - From March 5 to March 8, 2024, the Shenwan Petrochemical Index rose by 5.24%, while the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index fell by 0.18%. Key sectors showed varied performance, with refining and trading up by 3.48% and agricultural chemicals down by 0.50% [13]. Key Data - As of March 8, 2024, WTI crude oil futures were priced at $78.01 per barrel, down 2.45% week-on-week, and Brent crude oil futures were at $82.08 per barrel, down 1.76% week-on-week [15]. - The price of polymer MDI was 16,500 CNY/ton, down 2.94% week-on-week but up 1.23% year-on-year [25]. - The price of glyphosate was 25,200 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week but down 33.68% year-on-year [28]. Industry Recommendations - Recommended companies in the chemical sector include Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH), Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SH), and Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) among others. In the energy sector, companies like Sinopec (600028.SH) and PetroChina (601857.SH) are highlighted for their stable growth prospects [7]. Price Trends - The report tracks price movements of various chemical products, noting that 30 out of 122 tracked products increased in price, while 46 remained stable and 46 decreased [5]. Focus on Specific Chemicals - The report indicates that the price of synthetic ammonia, phosphoric acid, and urea has increased week-on-week, with synthetic ammonia experiencing tight supply due to equipment maintenance [5][29]. Future Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for fertilizers due to extreme weather and geopolitical crises affecting international food prices [7]. Key Company Performance - The report includes a table of key companies with their stock prices and earnings forecasts, indicating potential growth opportunities in the sector [8]. Conclusion - Overall, the chemical industry is positioned for growth with several investment opportunities identified across various segments, supported by favorable market conditions and demand dynamics [5][7].

y 研究员 请参阅文后免责条款 证券研究报告 政府工作报告释放积极信号 摘要（核心观点）： 政府工作报告制定的目标、政策释放积极信号： (1)2024 年 GDP 增长目标在高基数的基础上继续维持 5%左右增速。"经济 增长预期目标为 5%左右，考虑了促进就业增收、防范化解风险等需要，并 与"十四五"规划和基本实现现代化的目标相衔接，也考虑了经济增长潜 力和支撑条件，体现了积极进取、奋发有为的要求。" (3)货币政策灵活适度、精准有效。保持流动性合理充裕，社会融资规模、 货币供应量同经济增长和价格水平预期目标相匹配。加强总量和结构双重 调节，盘活存量、提升效能，加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支 持力度。促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降。畅通货币政策传导机制，避免 资金沉淀空转。增强资本市场内在稳定性。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水 平上的基本稳定。大力发展科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、 数字金融。更好满足中小微企业融资需求。 (4)强调宏观政策一致性。围绕发展大局，加强政策协调配合，"把非经济 性政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估，强化政策统筹，确保同向发力、形 成合力。""政策要注重与市场沟通、回应企业 ...

偶倒 0680 （本刊物为中风险等级产品，敬请投资者参阅正文后的免责声明） 2024 年第 45 期，总第 1604 期（电子版） 2024 年 3 月 12 日 星期二 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|--------------|-----------| | | | | | | | | | | 沪深指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 3068.46 | 0.74 | | 深证成指 | 9581.53 | 2.27 | | 中小 100 | 5886.75 | 2.04 | | 创业板指 | 1890.41 | 4.6 | | 沪深 300 | 3589.26 | 1.25 | | | 海外市场指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 道琼斯 | 38769.66 | 0.12 | | 纳斯达克 | 16019.27 | -0.41 | | 标普 500 | 5117.94 | -0.11 | | 英国富时 100 | 7669.23 | 0.12 | | 日经 225 | 38401.17 | -1.08 ...

y 证券研究报告 机械行业 报告日期：2024 年 3 月 11 日 关注人形机器人催化落地与 5 万亿元设备更新的投资机会 ——机械行业周报 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：增持（维持） 最近一年走势 -30.00% -25.00% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 2023-03-10 2023-05-23 2023-08-01 2023-10-16 2023-12-21 2024-03-07 机械设备(申万) 沪深300 市场数据 2024 年 3 月 8 日 研究员：景丹阳 执业证书编号：S0230523080001 邮 箱： jingdy@hlzqgs.com 研究员：邢甜 执业证书编号：S0230521040001 邮 箱： xingt@hlzqgs.com 相关阅读 《关注叉车销量增长与人形机器人催化 带来的投资机会》2024.03.04 《中央鼓励新一轮大规模设备更新，机床 及零部件有望受益》2024.02.27 《挖机销量超预期，关注工程机械边际改 善机会》2024.02.20 请认真阅读文后免责条款 周观点： 优必选大涨带动人形机器人板块整体表 ...