汽车"反内卷"政策有望逐步落地推进 ——汽车行业周报 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 分析师：杨阳 证券研究报告 汽车 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 21 日 执业证书编号：S0230523110001 邮箱：yangy@hlzq.com 联系人：李浩洋 执业证书编号：S0230124020003 邮箱：lihy@hlzq.com 2025.07.06 用车市场销量增长—汽车行业周报》 2025.06.23 现金流有望改善—汽车行业周报》 2025.06.16 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 . 本周观点：汽车"反内卷"政策有望逐步落地推进。近期，中央 政府集中召开会议部署推进规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序工作， 汽车领域"反内卷"具体措施有望落地。根据前期会议风向，我 们认为政策或将聚焦降价促销提前报备、经销商库存检测、国内 新增产能控制和供应商账期严格监控等，近三年以来价格战频发 的乘用车市场竞争态势有望得到缓和。具备产品优势的整车公司、 现金流改善确定性较强的国央车企供应商以及弹性较大的中小供 应商有望受益。 行业动态：行业要闻，一是吉利汽车与极氪科技正式签署合并协 议；二是财政部 ...

——叉车销量数据点评报告 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 分析师：邢甜 执业证书编号：S0230521040001 邮箱：xingt@hlzq.com 证券研究报告 机械设备 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 16 日 6 月内外销高增长，关注叉车投资机会 《把握"高科技+低估值"双主线，攻守 兼备布局下半年—机械设备行业 2025 年中期策略报告》2025.07.06 《工程机械开工率有所下降，出口景气 2025.06.09 《4 月挖机销量同比+17.6%，制造业 PMI 同环比下滑—机械设备行业周报》 2025.05.27 事件： 投资评级：推荐（维持） 2025 年 7 月 15 日，统计与经济运行部发布 6 月工程机械行业主 要产品销售快报。 观点： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 6 月叉车销量：据中国工程机械工业协会对叉车主要制造企业统 计，2025 年 6 月当月销售各类叉车 137570 台，同比增长 23.1%。 其中国内销量 83892 台，同比增长 27.3%；出口量 53678 台，同 比增长 17.2%。 1—6 月叉车累计销量：2025 年 1-6 月共销售叉车 739334 台，同 比增 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the long-term bull market is not over, and investors should focus on growth opportunities [8][119] - The easing of trade friction between China and the U.S. has led to improved bilateral trade conditions, with both sides reducing tariffs [8][50] - The report highlights the importance of policy-driven capital inflows into the market, which are expected to stabilize market performance [8][91] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policy Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has caused significant short-term disruptions to its major trading partners, with trade balances showing varying degrees of decline [8][14] - The report notes that the U.S. economy has shown resilience despite the negative impacts of tariff policies, with a rebound in service sector PMI [8][30] - Historical analysis indicates that U.S. tariff policies often lead to self-inflicted economic consequences, typically resulting in negotiations or retractions [8][44] Group 3: Industry Themes and Opportunities - The report identifies several key sectors for investment, including defense and military, low-altitude economy, stablecoins, AI technologies, and autonomous robotics [8][119] - The defense and military sector is highlighted due to geopolitical tensions, which are expected to drive demand and performance [8][119] - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with market size estimates reaching 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 [8][119] Group 4: Economic Recovery and Consumer Trends - Domestic consumption is gradually recovering, with retail sales showing a year-on-year growth of 6.4% in May [8][64] - The report indicates that infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable, supported by government policies and funding [8][70] - The real estate market is stabilizing, with a reduction in the inventory of unsold properties and a narrowing decline in housing prices [8][73]

本报告来源于"慧博投研",请勿外传! CDSE ~ 华龙证券 从"山重水复"到"柳暗花明" -A股市场2025年中期投资策略报告 华龙证券研究所 策略 分析师：朱金金 SAC执业证书编号: S0230521030009 邮箱: zhujj@hlzq.com 2025年7月10日 证券研究报告 本报告来源于"慧博投研"，请勿外传! CDSE S 华龙证券 2025年1月1日-2025年6月30日市场走势(单位: %) 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% -10.00% 上指数 -- 开采300 相关报告 《A股月度金股:7月市场中枢或有上移》 2025. 07. 01 《A股市场2024年报及2025年一季报综述:二季度关注政策催化且业绩保持韧 性方向》 2025. 5. 17 《2025年A股投资策略报告:启航新时期,逐梦高质牛》 2024. 12. 09 资料来源:Wind,华龙证券研究所 请认真阅读文后免责条款 本报告来源于"慧博投研"，请勿外传! CDSE 3 华龙证券 目 录 1 对等关税 扰动可控 2 摩擦缓和 政策显效 3 长牛未央 坚守成长 ...

Group 1 - The communication industry is experiencing steady growth, with 92 covered companies achieving a total revenue of 625.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.62%, and a net profit of 52.14 billion yuan, up 7.12% [5][62] - The optical module and satellite internet sectors are performing exceptionally well, with significant demand for high-end optical modules and a rapid expansion of the satellite internet market [5][62] - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the communication industry, emphasizing investment opportunities in optical modules and satellite internet [5][62] Group 2 - The demand for high-end optical modules is robust, driven by the rise of AI applications, with the global market for 800G Ethernet optical modules expected to exceed 40 billion yuan by 2025 [5][38] - Chinese companies are increasing their market share in the optical module sector, with seven out of the top ten global suppliers being Chinese [5][38] - The satellite internet industry is rapidly developing, supported by government policies, with the market expected to reach 59.34 billion yuan by 2031 [55][62] Group 3 - The AI server market is projected to grow significantly, with global market size expected to reach 158.7 billion yuan by 2025, which will further drive the demand for optical modules [31][35] - The capital expenditure of major cloud service providers in North America is increasing, indicating a sustained demand for AI servers and related optical modules [33][35] - The satellite internet applications are diversifying, covering various sectors including government, defense, and public services, with a focus on low-latency and high-bandwidth services [45][55]

Group 1 - The automotive sector has shown significant excess returns driven by smart driving and robotics, with the automotive index rising by 8.91% as of H1 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.88 percentage points [7][16][20] - The passenger vehicle market is expected to accelerate its convergence, supported by policies like vehicle trade-in, with a retail sales volume of 8.82 million units in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [27][35] - Domestic automakers are rapidly expanding overseas, with a two-digit growth in passenger vehicle exports in early 2025, particularly in hybrid models, and a focus on markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America [50][54][60] Group 2 - The L2 and L4 autonomous driving segments are set to see significant growth, with an expected sales volume of 5.5 million mid-to-high-level autonomous vehicles in 2025, achieving a penetration rate of 22.9% [7][66] - The human-shaped robot sector is experiencing marginal changes, with leading companies like Tesla and Figure AI actively deploying robots in industrial settings, which may enhance their capabilities and accelerate mass production [7][63] - Investment recommendations highlight key players such as BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Geely in the passenger vehicle market, as well as leading smart driving companies like Seres and XPeng Motors [8][10][60]

Group 1: Overview and Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant decline in performance in the first half of 2025, with the sector's valuation dropping from 22.4X to 20.8X, reaching historical lows [6][10][18] - The food and beverage sector's revenue growth and net profit growth slowed down in Q1 2025 compared to 2024, with revenue at 326.41 billion yuan, a 2.59% year-on-year increase, and net profit at 81.55 billion yuan, a 0.27% increase [18][6] - The sector's performance varied significantly across sub-industries, with snacks showing the fastest revenue growth at 30.96%, while the liquor sector faced a notable slowdown [18][6] Group 2: Liquor Industry Insights - The liquor industry is currently in an adjustment phase, with Q1 2025 revenue growth at 1.60% and net profit growth at 2.26%, significantly lower than the previous year's growth rates of 7.25% and 7.41% respectively [29][30] - Liquor companies are focusing on inventory control and price stability to alleviate supply-demand imbalances, with many companies adopting a "suspension of sales" strategy to prepare for peak seasons [30][32] - The long-term outlook for the liquor industry suggests potential recovery as inventory clears and sales improve, with companies increasingly prioritizing shareholder returns through higher dividend payouts [36][32] Group 3: Snack Food Sector Dynamics - The snack food sector is projected to exceed a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan in 2024, driven by product innovation and new distribution channels [44][50] - In Q1 2025, the snack food sector reported a revenue of 22.77 billion yuan, reflecting a 30.96% year-on-year growth, although net profit saw a decline due to high base effects from the previous year [44][50] - The growth in the snack food sector is attributed to the expansion of new product categories and channels, with a focus on health-oriented snacks gaining traction among consumers [50][54] Group 4: Soft Drink Industry Trends - The soft drink industry is experiencing accelerated product innovation and heightened competition, with a notable increase in the introduction of new products [59][60] - The market for functional beverages, including low-sugar and health-oriented drinks, is expanding, driven by consumer demand for healthier options [59][62] - The bottled water market is projected to exceed 310 billion yuan by 2025, with major brands capturing significant market shares [62][60] Group 5: Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the food and beverage sector, anticipating a recovery driven by consumer spending initiatives and structural growth opportunities in high-demand segments [7][6] - Key investment opportunities include companies in the snack food, soft drink, and pet food sectors, which are expected to benefit from emerging consumer trends and market dynamics [7][6] - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Yili Group, among others, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on market recovery [7][6]

新秩序、新经济：金属的重新锚定与价值重估 投资评级：推荐（维持） ---有色金属行业2025年中期策略报告 华龙证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：景丹阳 SAC执业证书编号：S0230523080001 邮箱：jingdy@hlzq.com 2025年07月04日 证券研究报告 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2025.1.1-2025.6.30市场走势（单位：%） 相关报告 | 相对沪深300表现（2025.06.30) | | | （单位：%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 沪深300 | 2.5 | 0.53 | 13.71 | | 有色金属（申万） | 9.26 | 5.5 | 18.66 | 《有色金属行业周报：中美领导人通电话，经贸会谈持续推进》2025.6.9 《有色金属行业周报：未来一周金属价格或持续波动》2025.5.26 《海亮股份（002203.SZ）公司深度研究：扩规模、提周转，全球铜加工龙头 无惧周期》2025.5.21 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2 报告摘要 请认真阅读文后免责条款 3 • 黄金： Ø 通过复盘黄金历 ...

证券研究报告 计算机 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 30 日 蚂蚁集团推出 AI 医疗 C 端产品，关注 AI+医疗投资机会 执业证书编号：S0230124010005 邮箱：zhulx@hlzq.com 《稳定币的新进展和应用场景—计算机 行业点评报告》2025.06.23 《火山引擎 FORCE 大会召开，豆包大 模型 1.6 正式发布—计算机行业点评报 告》2025.06.16 《AI 产业高景气度持续验证，看好应用 与算力投资机会—计算机行业周报》 2025.06.09 请认真阅读文后免责条款 ——计算机行业点评报告 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230523080004 邮箱：sunbw@hlzq.com 事件： 2025 年 6 月 26 日，蚂蚁集团正式推出面向 C 端的 AI 健康应用 ——AQ，旨在通过 AI 技术简化就医流程、提升健康管理效率。 分析师：孙伯文 联系人：朱凌萱 融合多模态交互技术，整合多方资源打造个人健康助手。蚂蚁集 团推出 AI 健康应用 AQ，整合了健康科普、就诊咨询、报告解读、 健康档案等上百项功能，并连接全国超 5000 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][7]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong government has released the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0," aiming to establish Hong Kong as a global innovation center in the digital asset field, with a licensing mechanism for digital asset trading and custody service providers [3][6]. - The policy emphasizes the regularization of tokenized government bond issuance and the promotion of broader asset and financial instrument tokenization, including applications in precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and renewable energy [6]. - The report highlights the trend of traditional finance merging with digital economy, as evidenced by recent developments such as the introduction of stablecoins and the issuance of tokenized securities by traditional financial institutions [6][7]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - On June 26, 2025, the Hong Kong government reiterated its commitment to becoming a global leader in digital assets through the new policy declaration [3]. - The declaration outlines a systematic approach to advancing the digital asset ecosystem through legal optimization, ecological expansion, application deepening, and regulatory improvement [6]. Market Trends - The report notes that traditional financial institutions are increasingly entering the virtual asset trading space and collaborating with blockchain technology platforms to promote asset tokenization, reflecting a trend of integration between traditional finance and the digital economy [6][7]. - The issuance of the "GF Token" by Guangfa Securities in Hong Kong represents a successful attempt at integrating traditional financial assets with blockchain technology [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in cross-border payments, blockchain, and cryptocurrency technology, as well as those related to Real World Assets (RWA) [7]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Cross-border payment and blockchain-related: Jingbeifang (002987.SZ), Lakala (300773.SZ), Xinguodu (300130.SZ), Tianyang Technology (300872.SZ), and Hengsheng Electronics (600570.SH) [7]. - RWA-related: Longxin Group (300682.SZ) and Zhongke Jincai (002657.SZ) [7].