策略研究报告 证券研究报告 策略报告 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 15 日 景气度预期或继续影响风格表现 ——A 股投资策略周报告 华龙证券研究所 A 股市场走势(2024/08/16-2025/09/12) 姓 名：朱金金 执业证书编号：S0230521030009 邮 箱：zhujj@hlzq.com | 1. 策略观点 . | | --- | | 1.1 市场聚焦 . | | 1.2 市场研判 . | | 2. 市场数据 | | 2.1 全球及国内指数表现 b | | 2.2 行业及概念指数表现 | | 2.3 融资交易行业方向 . | | 2.4 市场及行业估值 . | | 3. 事件日历 . | | 4. 风险提示 . | | 图 1: 风格指数收益率走势(%) | | --- | | 图 2: PPI 同比及环比走势(%) | | 图 3: CPI 同比及环比走势(%) . | | 图 4: 进出口累计同比增速(%) | | 图 5: 社会融资规模存量同比(%) | | 图 6: MI、M2 同比走势(%) . | | 图 7: 全球主要指数涨跌幅(%) | | 图 8: 国内指数涨跌幅(%) ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [4]. Core Views - The company reported a total operating revenue of 5.171 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.429 billion yuan, up 10.97% year-on-year [4]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a record high in profit, with revenue reaching 2.749 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.24%, and a net profit of 812 million yuan, up 18.31% year-on-year [6]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 41.85% and a net margin of 27.7% in the first half of 2025, with improvements in profitability metrics [6]. - The traditional hydraulic cylinder business showed steady growth, with sales of excavator hydraulic cylinders increasing by over 15% year-on-year [6]. - The company has made significant strides in its linear actuator business, launching over 50 new products and expanding its market reach [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 5.171 billion yuan, a 7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.429 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.97% growth [4]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 41.85%, with a net margin of 27.7%, indicating improved profitability [6]. Business Growth - The traditional hydraulic cylinder segment experienced robust growth, with sales of excavator hydraulic cylinders reaching 308,300 units, a year-on-year increase of over 15% [6]. - The company’s new product lines, including compact hydraulic valves and radial piston motors, have seen significant sales growth, with non-excavator hydraulic pump and valve products growing over 30% year-on-year [6]. Market Expansion - The company’s overseas production base in Mexico has commenced operations, enhancing supply chain resilience and enabling localized service offerings [6]. - The linear actuator segment has seen dual breakthroughs in technology development and market promotion, with nearly 300 new customer accounts established [6][7]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.897 billion yuan, 3.259 billion yuan, and 3.573 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [12]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.4x for 2025, 36.8x for 2026, and 33.6x for 2027 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the food and beverage industry [2][34]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.13% increase last week, with notable gains in the snack (+10.20%), dairy (+2.67%), and liquor (+2.14%) sub-sectors. The report highlights that the release of performance pressures in the liquor sector and stable growth in leading companies in snacks, dairy, and condiments are key factors for the positive outlook [6][34]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the liquor sector, particularly in the context of recent policy impacts, suggesting that valuation recovery may precede fundamental improvements. It recommends focusing on specific companies within the liquor sector that are expected to rebound [34]. - The snack sector is identified as having strong growth potential driven by new retail formats and product categories, with significant revenue increases reported by leading companies [35]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index increased by 2.13%, ranking seventh among major sectors. The snack sector led with a 10.20% increase, followed by dairy and liquor [16][34]. Liquor Sector Analysis - In the first half of 2025, only a few liquor companies, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, reported positive revenue and net profit growth. The report notes that the liquor demand has been under pressure since the second quarter due to policy changes, but expectations for recovery are building [6][34]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Shede Liquor, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai for their potential in valuation recovery [34]. Snack Sector Analysis - The snack sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with companies like Youyou Foods and Wancheng Group reporting substantial revenue increases of 45.59% and 109.33%, respectively. The report suggests that new consumer trends favoring health and self-satisfaction will drive further growth in this sector [35][30]. Key Company Performance - Kweichow Moutai reported a stock price of 1,480.00 yuan with an expected EPS growth from 68.64 yuan in 2024 to 74.38 yuan in 2025 [36]. - Wuliangye's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 527.71 billion yuan, showing a 4.19% year-on-year increase [32]. - Hai Tian Wei Ye achieved a revenue of 152.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.59% increase, with a net profit growth of 13.35% [29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's profitability is improving, with attention on positive changes from the supply side [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 41.292 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.38%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.34% to 4.368 billion yuan [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the average price of cement and clinker was 274.31 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.28 yuan/ton year-on-year, while the average cost decreased by 9.25 yuan/ton, leading to a comprehensive gross profit margin of 28.41%, up by 5.70 percentage points [5] - The company sold a total of 12.7 million tons of cement and clinker, a slight decrease of 0.09% year-on-year [5] - The forecast for operating revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 93.285 billion yuan, 100.296 billion yuan, and 106.363 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 9.871 billion yuan, 10.728 billion yuan, and 11.022 billion yuan [6][5] Market Outlook - The supply-demand dynamics in the cement industry are expected to improve in the second half of 2025, driven by government investments in infrastructure and major strategic projects, although the real estate market remains under pressure [5] - The average PE ratio for the company is projected to be 13.1, 12.0, and 11.7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, compared to the average valuation of comparable companies at 14.8 times PE [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][9]. Core Insights - The "Artificial Intelligence+" top-level design has been introduced, indicating that the AI industry is expected to enter a golden development phase supported by policies. The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications and suggests focusing on key sectors such as intelligent terminals and intelligent agents [5][9][18]. - Alibaba's AI and cloud business have shown significant growth, with a 26% year-on-year increase in revenue from its cloud intelligence group, and AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters. The company plans to maintain its capital expenditure target of 380 billion RMB over the next three years for cloud and AI hardware infrastructure [19][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Market Performance - From August 25 to August 29, 2025, the Shenwan Computer Index rose by 1.34%, with notable stock performances from companies like Kaipu Cloud and Aerospace Hongtu [10]. 2. Industry News - On August 26, 2025, the State Council issued the "Opinions on Deepening the Implementation of the 'Artificial Intelligence+' Action," which outlines goals for AI integration across six key areas by 2027 and aims for a comprehensive transition to an intelligent economy and society by 2035 [15][16]. 3. Key Company Announcements - Zhongke Chuangda announced plans to use its own funds for project payments and to replace them with raised funds [15]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI applications and companies involved in AI and cloud services, including Dingjie Zhizhi, Zhuoyi Information, and others. It also highlights Alibaba's partnerships and investments in related firms [23][25]. 5. Financial Projections - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, indicating growth potential and investment ratings for firms like Inspur Information and Zhongke Shuguang [25]. 6. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the AI industry will experience rapid growth, driven by increasing AI penetration and the emergence of new business models and industrial patterns [18][22].

证券研究报告 汽车 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 01 日 Q2 营收增长业绩短暂承压，看好公司人形机器人领域战略布局 ——隆盛科技（300680.SZ）2025 年半年报点评报告 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：买入（维持） 最近一年走势 | 当前价格（元） | 43.14 | | --- | --- | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 15.25-49.50 | | 总市值（百万元） | 9,823.67 | | 流通市值（百万元） | 7,585.66 | | 总股本（万股） | 22,771.61 | | 流通股（万股） | 17,583.81 | | 近一月换手（%） | 193.92 | 分析师：杨阳 执业证书编号：S0230523110001 邮箱：yangy@hlzq.com 分析师：李浩洋 执业证书编号：S0230525080001 邮箱：lihy@hlzq.com 2025.04.22 2025.03.14 请认真阅读文后免责条款 事件： 公司发布 2025 年半年报：公司 2025 年上半年实现营收 12.24 亿 元，同比+15.44%，实现归母净利润 1.05 亿元，同比+1.38%； ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The demand for high-speed optical devices is robust, leading to continuous growth in the company's performance. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.456 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 899 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.46% [3][5] - The company is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of 800G and 1.6T high-speed optical device products in the second half of 2025, which will further drive performance growth [5] - The company is increasing R&D investment to build technological barriers and is pursuing a global layout to cultivate new growth spaces. In the first half of 2025, R&D investment reached 126 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.97% [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.456 billion yuan, up 57.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 899 million yuan, up 37.46% year-on-year [3][5] - The company forecasts operating revenues of 4.885 billion yuan, 6.525 billion yuan, and 8.222 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 2.065 billion yuan, 2.807 billion yuan, and 3.616 billion yuan for the same years [6][5] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 67.8, 49.9, and 38.7 respectively, indicating potential for growth compared to the average valuation of comparable companies at 46 times P/E [5][7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on market-driven demands and technological innovation, particularly in upgrading and iterating 1.6T high-speed products while enhancing core process innovation to reduce costs and increase efficiency [5] - The company has established dual headquarters and dual production bases, along with multiple R&D centers globally, including locations in Suzhou, Singapore, Japan, and Thailand, to provide diversified options and localized technical support [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has experienced significant growth in its performance, with a 282.64% year-on-year increase in revenue to 10.437 billion yuan and a 355.68% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 3.942 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [3][5] - The demand for high-speed optical modules is rapidly increasing, driven by advancements in AI technology and rising computing power needs, which has led to a 112.54% increase in optical module sales, totaling 6.95 million units [5] - The company has maintained high levels of R&D investment, amounting to 334 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 157.56% increase year-on-year, which has helped establish technological barriers and product differentiation advantages [5] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company's optical module production capacity reached 15.2 million units, a 66.67% increase year-on-year, supporting revenue growth [5] - The gross profit margin improved by 4.12 percentage points to 47.48% due to the increasing sales proportion of high-speed optical module products [5] - The company forecasts revenues of 24.08 billion yuan, 35.98 billion yuan, and 44.27 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 8.647 billion yuan, 13.085 billion yuan, and 16.191 billion yuan for the same years [6][7] Valuation Metrics - The current price of the company's stock is 354.95 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 352.72 billion yuan [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 40.8, 27.0, and 21.8 respectively [6][7] - The average P/E ratio of comparable companies is 51.5 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [4] Core Viewpoints - AI is identified as the core engine driving growth, leading to simultaneous increases in revenue and gross margin, with a significant year-on-year increase in contract liabilities [6] - The company achieved total operating revenue of 738 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 111 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.75% [4] - The self-developed "Ling Series" AI agent products and solutions are expected to accelerate implementation, contributing to the company's second growth curve [6] Financial Performance Summary - Total operating revenue for the reporting period was 738 million yuan, with a gross margin of 52.40%, an increase of 4.22% year-on-year [6] - Contract liabilities at the end of the reporting period reached 405 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 158.26% [6] - The company has improved its cost control, with sales, management, and financial expenses decreasing by 26.02%, 1.16%, and 107.53% respectively [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 251 million yuan, 303 million yuan, and 365 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 1.02 yuan, 1.24 yuan, and 1.49 yuan respectively [6] - The corresponding PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 51.8, 42.8, and 35.5 times respectively [6] Comparable Company Analysis - The report compares the company with peers such as Saiyi Information, Dingjie Smart, and Zhongke Electric, providing a benchmark for valuation [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in the new energy sector, with a diversified business layout supporting long-term development [1] - In H1 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 1.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.34%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 163 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.69% [3][5] - The consumer electronics business accounted for 62.75% of total revenue, while the new energy sector saw a 30.3% year-on-year growth, contributing 30.35% to total revenue [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 32.64% and a net profit margin of 8.21% [5] - The sales gross margin for Q2 was 33.12%, down 5.59 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 6.05 percentage points to 16.63% [5] - The company’s operating expenses as a percentage of revenue were 9.14% for sales, 5.9% for management, 12.55% for R&D, and 1.58% for financial expenses [5] Business Segments - The consumer electronics segment is expected to grow rapidly due to Apple's upcoming product launches, including new iPhone models [5] - The new energy business is expanding with a focus on smart charging and battery swapping stations, having received orders for over 500 stations and delivered more than 300 [5][6] - The semiconductor segment has seen significant growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 314.4% in H1 2025, driven by high-precision equipment orders from leading global companies [6] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 513 million yuan, 630 million yuan, and 757 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 31.1x for 2025, 25.3x for 2026, and 21.1x for 2027 [9] - The diversified business structure, particularly in new energy and semiconductors, is expected to enhance the company's profitability as these segments mature [9]