实物资产的时代：把握工业金属投资机会 投资评级：推荐（维持） ---有色金属行业2026年投资策略报告 华龙证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：景丹阳 SAC执业证书编号：S0230523080001 邮箱：jingdy@hlzq.com 2025年12月22日 证券研究报告 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2025.1.2-2025.11.28市场走势 相关报告 相对沪深300表现（2025.11.28) （单位：%） 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属行业 -2.6 15.3 60.3 -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 43% 53% 63% 73% 83% 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 2025-08 2025-09 2025-10 2025-11 有色金属(申万) 沪深300 《有色金属行业2025年三季报综述：宏观宽松预期叠加不确定性增强，有色行 业整体表现亮眼》2025.11.20 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2 沪深300 -2.5 0.7 14.7 报告摘要 请认真阅读文后免责条款 3 | | | | 股票代码 | 股票简 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the mechanical equipment industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry experienced a decline of 1.11% in the week of December 15-19, 2025, ranking 29th among 31 industries. Sub-industries such as engineering machinery and automation equipment saw declines of 1.79% and 2.14%, respectively. The report suggests that with the completion of the third-quarter reports, market risk appetite may improve, recommending a balanced approach between technology growth and cyclical investments [3][17]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is entering a new expansion cycle, with global wafer manufacturing equipment sales expected to grow by 13.7% year-on-year to $133 billion in 2025, driven by AI investment expansions in advanced logic and storage [4]. - The human-robot industry is transitioning from technological breakthroughs to commercial applications, with significant advancements in motion control and adaptability in complex environments. The report highlights the importance of overcoming technical bottlenecks for mass production [4]. - The engineering machinery sector shows signs of recovery, with excavator sales in November 2025 increasing by 13.9% year-on-year, supported by domestic demand and large infrastructure projects [5][48]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of the commercialization process in the controllable nuclear fusion industry, with significant investments and projects indicating a shift from research to practical applications [5]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Equipment - The global semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach $133 billion in 2025, with continued growth expected in 2026 and 2027, driven by AI-related investments [4]. - Key companies to watch include North China Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and others involved in critical semiconductor processes [4]. Engineering Machinery - November 2025 saw a 13.9% year-on-year increase in excavator sales, indicating a recovery in the engineering machinery sector, with domestic and export sales both showing positive trends [5][48]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies like XCMG Machinery and Sany Heavy Industry for potential investment opportunities [5]. Human-Robot Industry - The human-robot sector is witnessing rapid advancements, with notable achievements in motion control and public recognition of domestic robots. The report highlights the importance of technological breakthroughs for future mass production [4]. Nuclear Fusion - The report notes significant progress in the nuclear fusion industry, with major projects and investments indicating a shift towards commercialization. Companies like Hangyang Co. and others are highlighted for their technological capabilities [5]. General Equipment - The report indicates a structural recovery in the general equipment sector, with notable increases in sales of various machinery types, including forklifts and graders, driven by domestic demand and infrastructure projects [5][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the automotive industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The introduction of the automotive anti-involution policy is expected to correct price irregularities in the industry, with the potential for marginal recovery in profit margins across the supply chain [5][15]. - The National Market Supervision Administration released the "Guidelines for Compliance with Automotive Industry Pricing Behavior," which aims to regulate pricing practices from production to sales [5][15]. - Major automakers such as BYD, BAIC Group, and Xpeng Motors have expressed their support for the new guidelines, indicating a collective effort to address unreasonable competition [5][15]. Industry Dynamics - The automotive sector is witnessing a shift towards L3 and L4 autonomous driving technologies, with companies like Ideal Auto planning to launch their first L4 model within three years [5][24]. - The market is seeing new model launches, including the Geely Lynk 10 EM-P and Dongfeng Lantu Zhaiguang L, among others [5][31]. - The automotive sector's performance has outpaced the broader market, with the automotive index showing a gain of 0.16% compared to a decline of 0.08% in the CSI 300 index during the week of December 8 to December 12, 2025 [5][36]. Data Tracking - In November 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.225 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.22%, while retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 4.03% to 1.321 million units [5][47]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in retail sales reached 59.4%, up 6.99 percentage points year-on-year [5][57]. - The inventory coefficient for automotive dealers was reported at 1.57 in November 2025, indicating a significant increase compared to the previous year [5][70]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in a strong new product cycle, such as Great Wall Motors, Seres, SAIC Motor, and Xpeng Motors [5]. - It also highlights supply chain leaders and companies involved in humanoid robotics and intelligent driving as potential investment targets [5]. - For commercial vehicles, it recommends focusing on leading companies like Weichai Power and Yutong Bus, which are expected to benefit from the industry's recovery [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [2]. Core Insights - Tesla's release of the Optimus running video highlights advancements in mass production and design elements, with a focus on the upcoming large-scale production of the humanoid robot [5][16]. - The automotive sector is experiencing a divergence in performance between passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, with the latter expected to maintain high demand [3]. - The report suggests monitoring key components in the supply chain related to the humanoid robot's performance metrics, such as micro-ceramic screws and GaN electric controls [5]. Industry Dynamics - **Industry News**: Didi is testing fully autonomous ride-hailing services in Guangzhou, while BYD has launched its first plug-in hybrid vehicle in Japan [5][19][31]. - **New Models**: Recent vehicle launches include the Seres Blue Electric E5 Plus, Great Wall's Tank 300 Hi-4T, and NIO's L60 [15][33]. - **Company Announcements**: BYD reported sales of 480,200 units in November 2025, while Great Wall Motors achieved sales of 134,200 units, remaining stable year-on-year [34][35]. Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 1.38% from December 1 to December 5, 2025 [36][42]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the automotive sector stands at 28.5, reflecting a week-on-week increase [42]. Data Tracking - **Monthly Data**: In October 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.25 million units, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.54% but a month-on-month increase of 0.29% [46][57]. - **Weekly Data**: From November 24 to 30, 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles were approximately 879,000 units, remaining stable year-on-year, with a 14% increase in retail sales of new energy vehicles [101][104].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the humanoid robot industry [5][27]. Core Insights - The U.S. government is considering the release of a robot industry policy in 2026, which may include an executive order to support the robotics sector [5][16][17]. - Domestic manufacturers are intensively launching new products, indicating a push towards the commercialization of humanoid robots [5][27]. - The humanoid robot index increased by 1.85% from December 1 to December 5, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index [12][14]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From December 1 to December 5, 2025, the humanoid robot index rose by 1.85%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.37% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.26% [12][14]. Industry Dynamics - The Trump administration is exploring policies to enhance the robotics industry, including the establishment of a robotics working group by the U.S. Department of Transportation [16][17]. - Galaxy General has completed its transformation into a joint-stock company, raising a total of 2.3 billion yuan through three rounds of financing [17][20]. - The launch of the T800 humanoid robot by Zhongqing Robotics showcases advanced features such as 43 degrees of freedom and a peak torque of 450N·m [22][24]. Company Developments - Daimeng Robotics secured strategic investment from China Mobile, which will accelerate its advancements in tactile sensing technology [20][21]. - UBTECH and Zhuosheng Technology plan to deploy 10,000 robots over the next five years, marking a significant commercial collaboration [21]. - The introduction of the MIRO U robot by Midea represents a new generation of humanoid robots with innovative capabilities [24][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Zhejiang Rongtai, and others for potential investment opportunities in the humanoid robot sector [27][28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the engineering machinery industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant structural growth characteristics, with high-end products and exports being the core driving forces for the machine tool sector [4] - In November 2025, excavator sales reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales at 9,842 units (up 9.11%) and exports at 10,185 units (up 18.8%) [8] - For the period from January to November 2025, a total of 212,162 excavators were sold, marking a 16.7% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales at 108,187 units (up 18.6%) and exports at 103,975 units (up 14.9%) [8] - Loader sales in November 2025 reached 11,419 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, with domestic sales at 5,671 units (up 29.4%) and exports at 5,748 units (up 34.8%) [8] - The report indicates a strong domestic replacement demand for engineering machinery, driven by equipment renewal policies, and a rapid growth in exports with an improving structure [8] - The "Belt and Road" initiative regions are experiencing industrialization and infrastructure growth, while the North American market is expected to recover due to a rate cut cycle and replenishment demand [8] - The European market shows signs of marginal improvement after two years of decline, and Chinese brands have significant growth potential in the European and American markets due to low penetration rates [8] - Electrification and intelligence are opening new growth curves, enhancing both volume and pricing, while also broadening application scenarios [8] - Leading companies are expected to continue increasing their market share overseas, supported by technological upgrades and global expansion strategies [8] Summary by Sections - **Excavator Sales Data**: November 2025 saw excavator sales of 20,027 units, with a 13.9% year-on-year increase. Year-to-date sales reached 212,162 units, up 16.7% [8] - **Loader Sales Data**: November 2025 loader sales were 11,419 units, a 32.1% increase year-on-year, with year-to-date sales at 115,831 units, up 17.2% [8] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on leading companies with a well-established global presence, including XCMG (000425.SZ), SANY Heavy Industry (600031.SH), LiuGong (000528.SZ), Shantui (000680.SZ), Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), and Zhongji United (605305.SH) [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the mechanical equipment industry [2][3]. Core Views - The mechanical equipment industry saw a 2.9% increase last week, ranking second among 31 primary industries. Sub-industries such as engineering machinery (+6%) and specialized equipment (+3.45%) showed strong performance, while rail transit equipment experienced a decline of 0.82% [3][14]. - The report suggests that with the completion of the third-quarter reports, market risk appetite is expected to improve. It recommends a balanced approach between technology growth and cyclical investments, focusing on sectors and stocks with performance support [3][4]. - Key areas of focus include humanoid robots, PCB equipment, semiconductor equipment, and cyclical recovery in engineering machinery and general equipment [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Trends - In November 2025, excavator sales reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Domestic sales were 9,842 units (+9.11%), while exports were 10,185 units (+18.8%). Cumulatively, from January to November, 212,162 excavators were sold, marking a 16.7% increase year-on-year [5][44]. - The report highlights a structural recovery in the industry, driven by domestic demand from large projects and a new round of replacement cycles [5][44]. 2. Sub-Industry Performance - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a significant recovery, with excavator sales showing strong growth. The report emphasizes the importance of technological upgrades and global expansion for leading companies [5][44]. - The industrial robot sector saw a production increase of 17.9% in October 2025, indicating potential investment opportunities as the industry adjusts to new demands [28][44]. 3. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report identifies several companies for investment consideration, including XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ), SANY Heavy Industry (600031.SH), and Huazhong CNC (688697.SH), which are expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery and technological advancements in the industry [7][44]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is highlighted as a critical area for investment, with companies like North Huachuang (002371.SZ) and Zhongwei Company (688012.SH) recommended due to their strong market positions and growth potential [4][7]. 4. Policy and Market Drivers - The report notes that government policies are strongly supporting the high-end machine tool sector, with initiatives aimed at accelerating domestic production and technological breakthroughs [5][46]. - The global demand for high-end manufacturing is recovering, as indicated by Japan's machine tool orders, which have seen continuous growth driven by exports [5][46].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is maintained as "Buy" [2][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that BYD's export sales increased significantly, with a month-on-month growth of 57.2%, indicating that international expansion is driving the recovery of profitability [5][6]. - Despite a year-on-year decline of 5.3% in domestic sales for November 2025, the cumulative sales for the first eleven months of 2025 showed an increase of 11.3% compared to the previous year [5]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of high-end brands, which accounted for 10.8% of total sales in November 2025, driven by successful new product launches [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November 2025, BYD achieved total sales of 480,200 vehicles, with a cumulative total of 4,182,000 vehicles sold from January to November 2025 [5]. - The sales breakdown by brand shows that the Dynasty and Ocean series, along with other high-end models, performed well despite overall sales pressure [5]. Export Growth - BYD's export sales of new energy vehicles reached 131,900 units in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 325.9% and a month-on-month increase of 57.2% [5]. - The export sales accounted for 27.5% of total sales in November, up from 19.0% in October 2025 [5]. Product Development - The report notes a rapid pace of new product launches in Q4 2025, with several mid-to-high-end models introduced, which are expected to enhance the product mix and drive sales growth [5]. - High-end models like the Fangcheng Leopard and Tengshi series have shown strong market acceptance, contributing to the overall sales performance [5]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for BYD's net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 36.814 billion, 50.726 billion, and 61.462 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to intense domestic competition [6]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 23.9 for 2025, 17.4 for 2026, and 14.3 for 2027 [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Viewpoints - The machine tool industry exhibits significant structural growth characteristics, with high-end manufacturing and exports being the core driving forces. The metal cutting machine tool segment achieved a revenue growth of 10.8%, production growth of 14.8%, and export growth of 13.6%, significantly outperforming the overall industry level. This reflects the rigid demand for high-end processing equipment in high-tech fields such as aerospace, new energy vehicles, and precision molds [4][6] - The overall industry shows a structure of "stable domestically and growing externally," with growth momentum shifting from scale expansion to technological leadership and global market expansion. Short-term prosperity is constrained, but there are marginal improvement signals from policy expectations and inventory adjustments [6][7] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - From January to October 2025, the machine tool industry achieved a total operating income of 851.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. The metal cutting machine tool segment saw a year-on-year revenue increase of 10.8%, while the metal forming machine tool segment grew by 7.5%. New orders for metal processing machine tools increased by 7.3%, and the backlog of orders grew by 4.3% [3][4] Import and Export Data - The total import and export value of machine tool products reached 27.42 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. The import value was 8.48 billion USD, up 1.4%, while the export value was 18.94 billion USD, increasing by 7.7%. Specifically, the import value of metal cutting machine tools was 3.95 billion USD (up 0.6%), and the export value was 5.10 billion USD (up 13.6%). For metal forming machine tools, the import value was 520 million USD (down 9.8%), while the export value surged to 2.80 billion USD (up 38.2%) [4][6] Investment Recommendations - The current industry export performance is better than domestic demand, driven by global supply chain restructuring and industrialization needs in emerging markets. The report suggests focusing on companies with core technological capabilities, outstanding internationalization, and the ability to respond quickly to small and medium-sized enterprises. Recommended stocks include Kede CNC, Haitian Precision, Huazhong CNC, and others [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][19]. Core Insights - The acceleration of space computing deployment is creating a new competitive landscape in the AI industry, with significant developments from both China and the United States [4][14]. - The global AI industry is entering a resonance period, driven by the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure and the commercialization of downstream applications [5][18]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission announced plans for a space data center construction, aiming to build a system with over GW power in low Earth orbit by 2035 [4][14]. - China's "Trisolaris Computing Constellation" successfully launched its first 12 satellites, marking a significant milestone in space computing infrastructure [4][14]. Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA and its startup partner Starcloud launched the first space AI server equipped with the H100 chip for a three-year testing mission [4][14]. - Google is exploring the integration of its TPU chips into satellites to utilize solar energy for power [4][14]. Key Company Performance - Alibaba's cloud revenue grew by 34% year-on-year, with AI-related products seeing triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [5][18]. - Google’s TPU has become a strong competitor to NVIDIA, with the latest generation achieving significant performance metrics [17][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key areas: domestic chips (e.g., Haiguang Information, Cambrian), domestic servers (e.g., Zhongke Shuguang, Digital China), AI applications (e.g., Kingsoft Office, iFlytek), and space computing (e.g., Aerospace Intelligent Equipment, Zhongke Xingtou) [5][19].