证券研究报告 电力设备 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 20 日 1-2 月电力数据：风电出力环比加快，用电增速同比+1.3% ——行业动态点评报告 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230523110001 邮箱：yangy@hlzq.com 执业证书编号：S0230524080001 行业动态研究 表：重点关注公司及盈利预测 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 2025/03/20 | | EPS（元） | | | | PE | | | 投资 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 股价（元） | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 评级 | | 600011.SH | 华能国际 | 6.93 | 0.54 | 0.83 | 0.92 | 1.04 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 买入 | | 600027.SH | 华电国际 | 5. ...

邮箱：yangy@hlzq.com 执业证书编号：S0230524080001 邮箱：xuzj@hlzq.com 证券研究报告 电力设备 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 20 日 1-2 月装机数据：光伏新增装机 39.47GW，风电新增装机 9.28GW ——行业动态点评报告 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230523110001 《光伏组件涨势确立，奔驰全固态电池 路测—电新&公用行业周报》2025.03.05 《欧洲组件市场酝酿上涨，新能源电价 全面市场化—电新&公用行业周报》 2025.02.11 《12 月电力数据：光伏出力环比加快， 用电增速环比提升—行业动态点评报 告》2025.01.23 事件： 国家能源局发布 1-2 月份全国电力工业统计数据。 观点： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 光伏：1-2 月光伏新增装机 39.47GW，同比+7%。截至 2025 年 2 月底，光伏装机容量 9.3 亿千瓦，同比+42.9%。2025 年 1-2 月， 国内光伏新增装机 39.47GW，同比+7%。 风电：1-2 月风电新增装机 9.28GW，同比-6%。截至 2 ...

证券研究报告 2025.02.17 情况—建筑材料行业月报》2025.01.21 建筑材料 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 18 日 水泥需求回升价格持续上涨，行业盈利能力有望提升 ——建筑材料行业周报 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 分析师：彭棋 执业证书编号：S0230523080002 邮箱：pengq@hlzq.com 2025.03.03 数据来源：Wind，华龙证券研究所（本表华新水泥、上峰水泥、东方雨虹、伟星新材、北新建材盈利预测取自 华龙证券研究所，其中东方雨虹 2024 年 EPS 取自公司 2024 年年报，伟星新材 2024 年 EPS 取自 2024 年业绩快 报，坚朗五金、金晶科技、三棵树 2024 年 EPS 取自 2024 年业绩快报，其余公司盈利预测及评级均取自 Wind 一致预期） 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 请认真阅读文后免责条款 行业研究报告 投资评级：推荐（维持） 建材行业：水泥需求持续缓慢回升，行业积极推动错峰生产，水 泥价格延续上涨态势，有望带动行业盈利能力提升，维持建材行 业"推荐"评级。 水泥行业：进入三月上旬，国内水泥市场需求持续缓慢回升，全 国重点地区水 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the building materials industry, indicating a positive outlook due to the gradual recovery in cement demand and rising prices, which are expected to enhance industry profitability [4]. Core Insights - Cement demand is slowly recovering, with national cement enterprise shipment rates reaching 43%, a slight increase of less than 5 percentage points month-on-month. Southern regions are seeing shipment rates of 50-70%, while northern regions are just starting to see demand, with rates at 10-40% [4][13]. - The national cement price continues to rise, driven by industry self-discipline and peak production adjustments in response to the government's "anti-involution" policy. This price increase aims to alleviate losses faced by enterprises [4][13]. - The glass industry is experiencing a decline in demand, with floating glass prices dropping and inventory levels increasing. The overall market is characterized by weak demand and price flexibility [4][31]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The cement market is witnessing a gradual recovery in demand, with a national shipment rate of 43% and regional variations where southern enterprises are performing better than northern ones [4][13]. - Prices are on an upward trend, with increases of 20-40 CNY/ton in various regions, as companies implement peak production strategies and price hikes to improve profitability [4][13][15]. - Key companies to watch include Huanxin Cement (600801.SH), Shangfeng Cement (000672.SZ), and Conch Cement (600585.SH) [4]. Glass Industry - The floating glass market is facing challenges, with prices declining and overall demand sluggish. The average price of floating glass is reported at 1283 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY from the previous week [31]. - Inventory levels are rising, with total stock reaching 7025.7 million weight boxes, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [31][33]. - The market outlook remains cautious, with expectations of continued price declines due to weak demand and high inventory levels [31][33]. Real Estate and Construction Materials - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization, with a reduction in the year-on-year decline in sales volume and prices. This improvement is expected to positively impact the demand for construction materials [39]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in consumer demand for building materials, driven by improving market confidence and a gradual recovery in the real estate sector [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][22]. Core Insights - The upcoming NVIDIA GTC 2025 conference is expected to catalyze interest in areas such as agent-based AI, robotics, and accelerated computing, with a focus on domestic AI technology [4][16]. - The report highlights the increasing attention on domestic AI industries following the introduction of China AI Day at the NVIDIA conference, which aims to enhance the influence of domestic AI in various sectors [4][16]. - The report emphasizes the optimistic capital expenditure outlook for major domestic companies, predicting a significant increase in inference computing power, which is directly linked to AI applications [20][22]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - From March 10 to March 14, 2025, the Shenwan Computer Index declined by 1.36%, with notable gainers including Zhisheng Information and Hongquan Internet, while losers included Yonyou Network and Deepin Technology [9]. Industry News - Baidu released its Wenxin large model 4.5 and X1, introducing new capabilities for advanced search and AI drawing, with pricing set for API usage [14]. - OpenAI launched new tools to simplify the development of intelligent agents, indicating a trend towards more accessible AI development [14]. Key Company Announcements - Daotong Technology expects a net profit of 180 to 200 million yuan for Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 44.29% to 60.32% [15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic cloud computing companies such as Inspur Information and Yunsai Zhili, as well as AI application firms like Yonyou Network and Dingjie Zhizhi, and quantum technology companies like Guodun Quantum [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [2][22]. Core Insights - The upcoming NVIDIA GTC 2025 conference is expected to catalyze interest in areas such as agent-based AI, robotics, and accelerated computing, with a focus on domestic AI technology [4][16]. - The report highlights the increasing attention on domestic AI industries following the introduction of China AI Day at the NVIDIA conference, which aims to enhance the influence of domestic AI in various sectors [4][16]. - The report emphasizes the optimistic capital expenditure outlook for major domestic companies, predicting a significant increase in the proportion of inference computing power by 2026 [20][22]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - From March 10 to March 14, 2025, the Shenwan Computer Index declined by 1.36%, with notable gainers including Zhisheng Information and Hongquan Internet, while losers included Yonyou Network and Deepin Technology [9]. Industry News - Baidu released its Wenxin large model 4.5 and X1, introducing new capabilities for advanced search and AI drawing, with pricing set for API usage [14]. - OpenAI launched new tools to simplify the development of intelligent agents, indicating a trend towards more accessible AI development [14]. Key Company Announcements - Daotong Technology expects a net profit of 180 to 200 million yuan for Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 44.29% to 60.32% [15]. - Zhongcheng Technology signed a contract with China Mobile for a private cloud service project valued at 160 million yuan [15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic cloud computing companies such as Inspur Information and Yunsai Zhili, as well as AI application firms like Yonyou Network and Dingjie Zhizhi, and quantum technology companies like Guodun Quantum [22].

华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 证券研究报告 供给小幅稳增，需求持续恢复 执业证书编号：S0230523080001 钢铁 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 17 日 ——钢铁行业周报 邮箱：jingdy@hlzq.com 执业证书编号：S0230124010004 邮箱：pengy@hlzq.com 卷式"竞争—钢铁行业点评报告》 2025.03.05 《需求持续复苏，钢价短期震荡—钢铁 行业周报》2025.03.04 《库存累速收敛，表需复苏加快 —钢铁 行业周报》2025.02.25 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 供给端：截至 2025 年 3 月 14 日，五大钢材合计产量 853.21 万吨， 周环比上升 2.27%，同比上升 0.50%;247 家钢铁企业铁水日均产 量 230.59 万吨，周环比上升 0.03%，同比上升 4.42%;247 家钢铁 企业高炉产能利用率 86.57%，周环比上升 0.03pct，同比上升 3.99pct;87 家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率 53.49%,周环比上升 1.40pct,同比上升 1.89 pct。五大钢材中除冷轧卷板及中厚板外， ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that social financing maintains a rapid growth, with the total social financing stock reaching 417.29 trillion yuan by the end of February 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [4][8] - Government bonds have seen an increase in growth rate, with the balance of government bonds at 83.47 trillion yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year, accounting for 20% of the total financing [4][8] - The report indicates that the increase in financing to the real economy includes 5.87 trillion yuan in RMB loans, which is an increase of 548 billion yuan year-on-year [4][8] Group 2 - The report notes that the market is driven by policy changes, with significant gains in major indices due to policy catalysts, particularly in the consumer sector such as food and beverage, retail, and automotive [11][12] - The implementation of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" is expected to release consumption potential and expand domestic demand [11][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of basic data feedback, indicating that major indices have risen, driven by policy expectations and improved fundamentals [12][14] Group 3 - The report identifies key industry and thematic configurations, focusing on domestic demand, real estate chains, and independent technological innovation and advanced manufacturing [15][18] - It highlights that the manufacturing sales revenue grew by 3.6% year-on-year, while high-tech industry sales revenue increased by 10.6% [15][18] - The report also mentions the significant growth in excavator sales, with a year-on-year increase of 52.8%, and a notable rise in domestic automobile production and sales [15][18] Group 4 - The report provides market data, indicating that major indices have shown positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a fluctuation of 1.39% [12][21] - It includes a detailed analysis of industry and concept index performance, showing that various sectors have experienced significant gains [23][24] - The report also presents valuation metrics, indicating the price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios for various indices, highlighting the valuation levels across different sectors [30][32]

Group 1 - The report highlights that social financing maintains a rapid growth, with the total social financing stock reaching 417.29 trillion yuan by the end of February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [4][8] - Government bonds have seen an increase in growth rate, with the balance of government bonds at 83.47 trillion yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year, accounting for 20% of the total financing [4][8] - The report indicates that the increase in financing to the real economy includes 5.87 trillion yuan in RMB loans, 615.6 billion yuan in corporate bond net financing, and 2.39 trillion yuan in government bond net financing during the first two months of 2025 [4][8] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven market changes, noting that the market experienced significant gains due to policy catalysts, particularly in the consumer sector, including food and beverage, retail, and automotive industries [11][12] - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" is expected to release consumption potential and expand domestic demand, particularly in the consumer sector [11][18] - The report identifies key sectors for investment focus, including household appliances and automobiles, as well as the real estate chain, which is supported by government measures to stabilize the housing market [18][15] Group 3 - The report provides data on the performance of major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a range of 1.39% increase, and the CSI 300 Index increasing by 1.59% during the observed period [12][14] - It notes that the manufacturing sector's sales revenue grew by 3.6% year-on-year, while high-tech industries saw a 10.6% increase in sales revenue from October 2024 to February 2025 [15][18] - The report also highlights the significant growth in the excavator market, with sales of various types of excavators reaching 19,270 units in February, a year-on-year increase of 52.8% [15][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the steel industry [2][8] Core Viewpoints - Supply is slightly increasing while demand continues to recover, indicating a positive trend for the steel industry [4][54] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality supply leading to demand, with a focus on industry restructuring and capacity reduction [8][51] Supply Summary - As of March 14, 2025, the total production of five major steel products reached 8.5321 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.27% and a year-on-year increase of 0.50% [4][15] - The average daily pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3059 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.03% and a year-on-year increase of 4.42% [4][15] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel enterprises was 86.57%, up 0.03 percentage points week-on-week and up 3.99 percentage points year-on-year [4][15] Demand Summary - The total consumption of five major steel products reached 8.8388 million tons as of March 14, 2025, with a week-on-week increase of 3.61% and a year-on-year increase of 6.42% [20][22] - The daily transaction volume of construction steel from mainstream traders was 119,100 tons, reflecting a significant week-on-week increase of 32.29% [20][22] Inventory Summary - The total social inventory of five major steel products was 13.1991 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.99% [29][30] - The total factory inventory of five major steel products was 5.0971 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.12% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.71% [29][31] Cost Summary - As of March 14, 2025, the price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 780.6 RMB/wet ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.13% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.85% [42][44] - The comprehensive absolute price index for scrap steel was 2508.77 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.90% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.86% [42][43] Price Summary - The Mysteel ordinary steel absolute price index was 3575.89 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.04% [45][46] - The Mysteel special steel absolute price index was 9402.63 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.24% [45][46]