华龙证券研究所 投资评级：增持（首次覆盖） 最近一年走势 证券研究报告 食品饮料 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 07 日 业绩增速亮眼， "重回百亿"总目标如期达成 ——三只松鼠（300783.SZ）2024 年报业绩点评报告 | 当前价格（元） | 26.98 | | --- | --- | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 15.51-42.88 | | 总市值（百万元） | 10,818.98 | | 流通市值（百万元） | 7,543.50 | | 总股本（万股） | 40,100.00 | | 流通股（万股） | 27,959.60 | | 近一月换手（%） | 146.58 | 分析师：王芳 执业证书编号：S0230520050001 邮箱：wangf@hlzq.com 事件： 三只松鼠发布 2024 年报。 2024 年公司实现营业收入 106.22 亿元，同比增长 49.30%；归母 净利润 4.08 亿元，同比增长 85.51%；扣非后归母净利润 3.19 亿元， 同比增长 214.33%；经营活动产生的现金流量净额 6.02 亿元，同比增 长 80.08%。 观点： 请认真阅读文后免责条 ...

——三只松鼠（300783.SZ）2024 年报业绩点评报告 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：增持（首次覆盖） 最近一年走势 | 当前价格（元） | 26.98 | | --- | --- | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 15.51-42.88 | | 总市值（百万元） | 10,818.98 | | 流通市值（百万元） | 7,543.50 | | 总股本（万股） | 40,100.00 | | 流通股（万股） | 27,959.60 | | 近一月换手（%） | 146.58 | 分析师：王芳 执业证书编号：S0230520050001 邮箱：wangf@hlzq.com 事件： 三只松鼠发布 2024 年报。 证券研究报告 食品饮料 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 07 日 业绩增速亮眼， "重回百亿"总目标如期达成 组织变革，激发更多市场活力。 | | | | 预测指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 7,115 | 10,622 | 13,303 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the automotive industry [2][28]. Core Viewpoints - In March 2025, new energy vehicle companies achieved a total sales volume of 245,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 82.9% and a month-on-month increase of 31.0%. Cumulatively, 621,000 units were sold from January to March 2025, marking an 80.5% year-on-year growth [10][28]. - The report highlights the strong performance of several new energy vehicle manufacturers, with significant sales increases driven by new product launches and enhanced global expansion strategies [28]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Sales - Ten new energy vehicle companies reported a total sales volume of 245,000 units in March 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 82.9% and a month-on-month increase of 31.0%. Year-to-date sales reached 621,000 units, up 80.5% year-on-year [10][28]. Individual Company Performance - **Li Auto**: Delivered 36,674 units in March, with a year-on-year increase of 26.5% and a month-on-month increase of 39.6%. The company plans to launch two new electric SUVs, i8 and i6, in July and October 2025, respectively [11][5]. - **Xpeng Motors**: Achieved 33,205 units delivered in March, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 267.9%. The company is focusing on global expansion and plans to launch the G7 model in April-May 2025 [15][5]. - **Leap Motor**: Delivered 37,095 units in March, with a year-on-year increase of 154.7%. The company has initiated pre-sales for the B10 model, which received 32,000 orders within 48 hours [18][5]. - **NIO**: Delivered 15,039 units in March, with a year-on-year increase of 26.7%. The company is undergoing internal reforms to enhance supply chain management [13][5]. - **Geely and Changan**: Both companies are also highlighted for their performance, with Changan's Deep Blue brand delivering 24,371 units in March, a year-on-year increase of 86.8% [19][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a "Recommended" rating for the industry, emphasizing companies with competitive advantages in new product offerings, global expansion, and intelligent driving capabilities. Specific companies to watch include BYD, Great Wall Motors, Seres, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Leap Motor, Geely, and Changan [28][31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - In March 2025, the total sales of 10 new force car companies reached 245,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 82.9% and a month-on-month increase of 31.0%. Cumulatively, 621,000 units were sold from January to March, up 80.5% year-on-year [12][32] - The report highlights the strong performance of various new energy vehicle manufacturers, with significant sales growth driven by new product launches and improved delivery capabilities [5][32] Summary by Sections New Force Car Companies Total Sales - In March 2025, the total sales of new force car companies reached 245,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 82.9% and a month-on-month increase of 31.0%. The cumulative sales from January to March were 621,000 units, up 80.5% year-on-year [12] Sales by Individual New Force Car Companies - Li Auto delivered 36,674 units in March, with a year-on-year increase of 26.5% and a month-on-month increase of 39.6%. Cumulatively, 93,000 units were delivered from January to March, up 15.5% year-on-year [13] - Xpeng Motors delivered 33,205 units in March, with a year-on-year increase of 267.9% and a month-on-month increase of 9.0%. Cumulatively, 94,000 units were delivered from January to March, up 330.8% year-on-year [17] - Leap Motor delivered 37,095 units in March, with a year-on-year increase of 154.7% and a month-on-month increase of 46.7%. Cumulatively, 88,000 units were delivered from January to March, up 162.1% year-on-year [20] - NIO delivered 15,039 units in March, with a year-on-year increase of 26.7% and a month-on-month increase of 14.0%. Cumulatively, 42,000 units were delivered from January to March, up 40.1% year-on-year [15] - Other companies such as BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Geely also showed strong sales performance, contributing to the overall growth of the industry [32] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, highlighting the continuous increase in delivery volumes and the gradual launch and delivery of new products by most companies. It suggests focusing on companies with competitive advantages in new product reserves, global expansion, and intelligent driving capabilities, including BYD, Great Wall Motors, Seres, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Leap Motor, Geely, and Changan Automobile [32][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to the continued low prices of photovoltaic glass, with expectations for a rebound in prices [6] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 18.683 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.007 billion yuan, down 63.52% year-on-year [4][6] - The company has a competitive advantage as an industry leader, with over 90% of its production lines utilizing large furnaces, which provide lower costs and higher yield rates [6] - The company is expected to improve its profitability in 2025 as photovoltaic glass prices are anticipated to stabilize and recover [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 4.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 27.67%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.37% [6] - The net profit for Q4 2024 was -289 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 136.54% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 42.40% [6] - The company’s total production capacity for photovoltaic glass as of December 31, 2024, was 19,400 tons per day [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for operating revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 19.687 billion yuan (2025), 22.151 billion yuan (2026), and 24.936 billion yuan (2027), with growth rates of 5.38%, 12.51%, and 12.57% respectively [8] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 1.153 billion yuan (2025), 1.822 billion yuan (2026), and 2.361 billion yuan (2027), with growth rates of 14.50%, 58.08%, and 29.60% respectively [8] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 36.2, 22.9, and 17.7 respectively [8] - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is 27.3, indicating that the company is valued favorably given its industry-leading cost advantages [6][9]

证券研究报告 电力设备 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 01 日 公司业绩短期承压，光伏玻璃价格有望筑底回升 ——福莱特（601865.SH）2024 年年报点评报告 观点： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 | 当前价格（元） | 17.80 | | --- | --- | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 14.80-31.00 | | 总市值（百万元） | 41,703.98 | | 流通市值（百万元） | 33,821.16 | | 总股本（万股） | 234,292.01 | | 流通股（万股） | 190,006.51 | | 近一月换手（%） | 20.12 | 分析师：彭棋 执业证书编号：S0230523080002 邮箱：pengq@hlzq.com 2024 年三季报点评报告》2024.11.01 事件： 投资评级：增持（维持） 2025 年 3 月 28 日，福莱特发布 2024 年年报：2024 年公司实现 营业收入 186.83 亿元，同比下滑 13.20%；实现归属上市公司股东的 净利润 10.07 亿元，同比下滑 63.52 %。 市场数据 2025 年 03 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3335.75 points, down 0.46%[2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10504.33 points, down 0.97%[2] - The ChiNext Index fell to 2103.7 points, down 1.15%[2] - Over 4000 stocks declined across the market, indicating a bearish sentiment[4] Trading Volume and Financing - The total trading volume for the day was 1.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 102.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - As of March 28, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 967.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.04 billion yuan[9] - The total financing balance for both exchanges was 1.9058 trillion yuan, down 38.36 billion yuan from the previous day[9] Sector Performance - Precious metals, computing power, and new energy sectors showed gains, while photovoltaic, tourism, and aquaculture sectors experienced declines[6][10] - The market is advised to maintain a cautious stance with light positions due to low trading volumes and potential further declines[10] Future Events - The 50th Optical Fiber Communication Conference and Exhibition is scheduled for April 1, 2025, relevant to the communication equipment sector[18] - The 13th China Electronic Information Expo will take place on April 9, 2025, impacting the consumer electronics sector[18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [3][5]. Core Views - The report indicates strong upward momentum for gold, with industrial metals expected to recover. The U.S. economic growth forecast has been revised down, and inflation, debt, and tariffs are driving gold prices higher. The Federal Reserve has significantly lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.1% and raised its inflation forecast to 2.8% from 2.5% [5][21]. - Industrial metals are anticipated to see increased demand due to a recovering industrial sector, supported by fiscal policy measures. The report highlights a 5.9% year-on-year increase in industrial value added for January-February and a 4.1% increase in fixed asset investment [5][30]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Trends - From March 24 to March 28, the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index fell by 0.22%, with industrial metals down 0.17% and precious metals down 2.04% [10]. - The report notes significant fluctuations in individual stocks, with top gainers including Tianli Composite and Xinyi Ling, while major losers included Yongmaotai and Huayu Mining [11]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have continued to rise, surpassing $3000 per ounce, driven by persistent inflation and debt concerns in the U.S. The core PCE price index rose to 2.8% year-on-year in February, exceeding expectations [5][21]. - The report suggests that the ongoing economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures will keep gold prices elevated [5][21]. Industrial Metals - The report cites a 5.9% year-on-year growth in industrial value added and a 4.1% increase in fixed asset investment for the first two months of 2025, indicating a recovery in the industrial sector [30]. - The anticipated recovery in the industrial sector is expected to boost demand for industrial metals, with manufacturing investment growing by 9% [30]. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report highlights several companies to watch, including Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH), Hunan Gold (002155.SZ), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), and Western Mining (601168.SH) [5][6]. - Profit forecasts for these companies indicate varying earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with Hunan Gold projected to have an EPS of 0.75 in 2024 and a PE of 30.9 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company achieved revenue growth against the trend, with cement and related businesses, as well as overseas income, supporting its performance. In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 34.217 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.36%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.52% to 2.416 billion yuan [3][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Despite a decline in overall industry demand, the company managed to achieve revenue growth. The cement production in the industry fell by 9.5% year-on-year to 1.825 billion tons, yet the company's revenue increased by 1.36% [5]. Business Segments - The company's "Cement+" business has steadily improved, becoming a significant contributor to profits. In 2024, external aggregate sales reached 14.3 million tons, up 9%, and ready-mixed concrete sales were 31.81 million cubic meters, up 17% [5]. International Expansion - The company accelerated its international layout, signing contracts for cement and aggregate projects in Nigeria and Brazil. By the end of 2024, overseas production capacity exceeded 22.5 million tons per year, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Overseas cement sales reached 16.2 million tons, up 37%, generating revenue of 7.984 billion yuan, a 47% increase [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain revenue growth despite ongoing market challenges, with projected revenue growth rates of 5.90%, 5.50%, and 5.31% for 2025-2027. The adjusted profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 2.543 billion yuan and 3.016 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 11.1, 9.3, and 8.6 for the next three years, compared to an average valuation of 15.6 times P/E for comparable companies [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong upward momentum for gold prices, with expectations of a recovery in industrial metals due to improved economic indicators and fiscal policies [5][30]. - The U.S. inflation continues to exceed expectations, with the core PCE price index rising to 2.8% year-on-year, prompting upward adjustments in gold price forecasts [5][21]. - Industrial production in China shows signs of recovery, with a 5.9% year-on-year increase in industrial value added for January-February, indicating a potential rise in demand for industrial metals [30]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Trends - From March 24 to March 28, the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index decreased by 0.22%, with industrial metals down by 0.17% and precious metals down by 2.04% [10]. - The report notes significant fluctuations in individual stock performances, with top gainers and losers identified [11]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have surpassed $3000 per ounce, continuing to rise amid persistent inflation and debt concerns in the U.S. [5][21]. - The report emphasizes the strong momentum in gold prices, driven by a combination of economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures [5][21]. Industrial Metals - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a 5.9% year-on-year growth in industrial value added, suggesting a recovery in the industrial sector [30]. - The report anticipates a rebound in demand for industrial metals as fiscal policies take effect and industrial activity increases [30]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies in the sector, including Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Hunan Gold, with varying ratings based on their projected performance [6].