浙商证券研究所提醒您一本次电话会议仅面向浙商证券研究所签约的机构投资者以及受邀客户第三方嘉宾发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见均不构成对具体证券在具体价位具体时点具体市场表现的判断或投资建议 2、嘉宾所说信息或所表述的意见均不构成浙商证券研究所研究观点如果嘉宾发布的观点和浙商研究所发布的观点有分歧或不一致这也仅作为一种不同的研究视角供投资者参考3、依照监管要求和保密原则,未经合法授权,严禁录音、记录、转发 感谢您的理解和配合若本次交流内容不慎流出或涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留追究法律责任的权利再次感谢您对这张证券的理解和配合谢谢 好的各位投资人大家晚上好我是浙商交易李丹那我们今天的这个交流的主题呢是这个整个交易板块的年报一级报的一个总结那我们整个这个总结的一个题目呢是邮运和跨境物流是高景气的 公路表现平稳,铁路超预期那么我们因为交运各个子板块比较的多而且其实逻辑比较独立所以我们就分一个板块一个板块来看 那么首先看一下这个邮运邮运这边的话呢就是呃我们的一个题目综合来看呢是认为说23年的旺季哈他其实走势比较不及预期那么24Q1的一个运价呢处在历史高位那么其实现在我们也能明显的看到说整个的邮运的淡旺季其 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call is related to the company Zhejiang Merchants Bank (浙商银行) Core Points and Arguments - The call took place on May 8, indicating a regular update from the company to its stakeholders [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - No specific financial data, industry trends, or detailed insights were provided in the excerpt [1]

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call is related to Zheshang Securities Research Institute Core Points and Arguments - The call was directed towards institutional investors and invited third-party guests, indicating a focus on professional investment insights [1] - All opinions expressed during the call represent personal views and do not constitute specific investment advice regarding securities at particular price levels or market performances [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The nature of the information shared emphasizes the importance of independent analysis and due diligence by investors [1]

本次电话会已经面向浙商证券研究所签约的机构投资者以及受邀客户第三方嘉宾发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见均不构成对具体证券在具体价位具体时点具体市场表现的判断或投资建议 2、嘉宾所说信息或所表述的意见均不构成浙商证券研究所研究观点如果嘉宾发布的观点和浙商研究所发布的观点有分歧或不一致这也仅作为一种不同的研究视角供投资者参考3、依照监管要求和保密原则,未经合法授权,严禁录音、记录、转发 感谢您的理解和配合若本次交流内容不慎流出或涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留追究法律责任的权利再次感谢您对这张证券的理解和配合 谢谢好的 大家晚上好今天我们团队给大家汇报一下那个许多机械的一些核心的观点 那么讲这个虚工机械之前呢我们就是还是要讲一下这个行业观点毕竟这几个是龙头公司那么就是说呃就是我们还要看行业行业其实我们客观上来讲过去一年我们对于对行业的判断基本上还是呃大体就是比较对的呃我们相当于有两个判断第一个判断是 内部的需求今年能铸底海外的需求增长还是保持大的中长期的趋势是往上的一个趋势尽管中间有波动比如说在大的上升趋势过程中中间有个几个季度甚至一年的一个调整都是正常的但是你要认知到海外市场出口市场它的中长期的趋势是 ...

浙商证券研究所提醒您一本次电话会已经面向浙商证券研究所签约的机构投资者以及受邀客户第三方嘉宾发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见均不构成对具体证券在具体价位具体时点具体市场表现的判断或投资建议 2、嘉宾所说信息或所表述的意见均不构成浙商证券研究所研究观点如果嘉宾发布的观点和浙商研究所发布的观点有分歧或不一致这也仅作为一种不同的研究视角供投资者参考3、依照监管要求和保密原则,未经合法授权,严禁录音、记录、转发 感谢您的理解和配合若本次交流内容不慎流出或涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留追究法律责任的权利再次感谢您对这张证券的理解和配合谢谢下面有请楚江老师发言谢谢 各位投资者大家下午好非常高兴有机会为大家来分享一下我们港股互联网方面的一些观点 然后因为最近两周整个港股特别是港股互联网有一个非常大的涨幅那么在本次电话会我们我这边主要回答两个问题就是第一个就是在这个位置互联网行情是否可持续那么第二个就是在这个位置应该是去做一个怎样的配置那么关于第一个问题我这边认为本轮互联网行情是具有坚实的基本面流动性和固执的支撑 也就是说展望今年后半程伴随着国内宏观的温和复苏以及海外美联储降息那么这两个关键点就是全年行情可持续的 ...

它的影响的拖累效益也是在逐步的减弱有这几个因素那我们再来看市场的预期市场预期这一块我们用的是彭博数据库那彭博数据库这里面的数据显示整个以恒生指数为代表的港股的宽基指数它的24年一致EPS预期从3月的中下旬开始就呈现了一个明显的回升 所以我们觉得孙子端港股这边有一个很大的支撑就是我们宏观经济要比预期想得要好那这里面我们可以分行业看分行业看呢我们从两个口径一个呢就是24年的 预测EPS增速预期 再就是什么呢 再就是二五年的预期EPS增速那二四和二五年都比较快的领域有三个一个就是资讯科技 资讯科技就是我们说的PMT再就是什么呢 再就是地产建筑再就是材料 材料其实就是资源品 所以港股的话这三大板块整个24年景气跟25年的预期景气增速是比较靠前是分行业的情况那接下来我们再来看分五端分五端呢一个我们看的是流动性另外一个看的就是风险溢价那我们先来看流动性流动性的话我们找到一个数据口径比较有代表性是什么呢就是国际风险机构 持股港股的数量这个数量从4月20号之后是有明显增加迹象的那它背后的原因有两个第一呢就是最近分流因为我们看到最近海外股市特别是比如前期表现特别强劲的日本股市从3月以来一直是一个持续调整的状态所以这种背景之下港 ...

27 15. 4 -2. 0 4. 3 -1. 9 28 |城镇调查失业率: 2024-04-16 -0.1 5. 2 5. 3 5. 2 5. 3 5.6 5. 5 29 31个大城市: 2024-04-16 0. 0 5.1 5. 1 4. 9 5. 5 5.7 5. 8 30 #VALUE ! - 16-24岁人口: 2023-07-17 l 19. 6 18. 1 17.3 l 2024-03 2024-02 2024-01 2023-03 2023-02 2023-01 单位:% 31 公布日期 32 制造业PMI: 1. 7 49. 2 50. 1 2024-03-31 50. 8 49. 1 51. 9 52. 6 2024-03-31 3 3 2. 4 51. 3 56. 7 新订单: 34 4. 0 49.0 54. 1 52. 2 54. 6 49. 8 50. 9 2024-03-31 53.0 49.0 53. 6 35 |原材料库存: 0.7 48. 1 47. 4 48. 3 49. 8 49. 6 36 从业人员： 47.5 47.7 0. 6 48.1 47. 6 50. 2 ...

周期不同阶段因为有可能会出现第二种场景就是说因为你发现这个叉烧行业不管是安徽合力还是航叉它其实已经紧缺了这是第三年你看它的股价也是涨了三年了那么你会发现其实温哥华的其他的几个公司 不管是混凝土机械也好这个启动机也好 挖掘机也好那么这些公司 龙头公司最近两年开始上岗其实也是这两年开始因此有一种情形可能是周期的发展阶段那么就是说它这个复苏比他们更好因为别的行业就很大程度上是受到了房地产的拖累房地他们是导致这两个行业 就是说过去可能是在上一轮周期可能是这样 奥运是他们的1.5到2倍现在是反过来 反过来那就是说可能你看到面对的因子是不一样的 是地产那么我们的一个判断是什么呢?其实这两方面的原因都有就金融格局上其实就是说确实差车双寡头 这样一个竞争格局其实就是三卦头通常我们猜经济学上我们认为这种格局是比较相对稳定的你包括混凝土机械的那个三星和中联这个领域在这个品类上现在已经形成了这样一种默契这是一个我觉得这是一个很重要的原因另外呢从周期的位置上来看我们刚才说了就是有的因为但是反过来说如果地产对于这个供应机器行业的拖累就边际上 便利上就是结束 不会再下滑了政治有可能比如说从慢慢的就是说如果对地产的政策从过去的不断的收缩转 ...

Summary of the Research Report on Innovative Pharmaceuticals and Industry Chain Industry Overview - **Industry Definition**: Innovative drugs are defined as drugs with independent intellectual property patents. The CXO (CRO/CMO/CDMO) sector focuses on various segments of innovative drug research and development, providing high-quality, highly regulated services throughout the R&D, clinical, commercialization, and production phases of innovative drugs [3][10][15]. Key Points Industry Rating - **Rating**: The innovative pharmaceutical industry is rated positively, with a favorable outlook for growth [1]. Market Dynamics - **Market Size**: The global pharmaceutical market is projected to reach a trillion-dollar scale, driven by aging populations, evolving disease spectrums, and rising consumer spending [32]. - **Demand Evolution**: The demand for innovative drugs is expected to evolve further post-2030, influenced by changing disease patterns and increased healthcare needs [32]. Investment Logic - **Domestic Innovative Drug Companies**: Key players include HengRui Medicine, BeiGene, and others, focusing on strong independent R&D capabilities and internationalization [13][15]. - **CXO Sector**: The CXO industry is experiencing growth due to increased R&D investments from innovative drug companies, with a projected annual growth rate of 7.6% from 2020 to 2025 [39][44]. Competitive Landscape - **CXO Market**: The CXO market is characterized by high competition, with major players like WuXi AppTec and Tigermed leading the market. The industry is seeing a shift towards higher value-added services [19][72]. - **API Market**: Chinese API companies hold a strong global position due to cost advantages and a well-established chemical industry [75]. Financial Performance - **R&D Investment**: In H1 2023, 31 innovative drug companies reported a total R&D investment of 28.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [82]. - **Sales Growth**: The sales revenue of 14 commercialized innovative drug companies reached 19.3 billion in H1 2023, a 61% increase year-on-year, indicating strong commercial potential [82]. Challenges and Risks - **Profitability Concerns**: The CXO sector faced a significant decline in profitability, with average net profit growth dropping by 128% year-on-year in Q3 2023 due to market conditions and increased costs [87][90]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The industry is subject to stringent regulatory requirements, which can impact operational efficiency and cost structures [10][20]. Emerging Trends - **Technological Advancements**: The shift from small molecule drugs to biologics and gene therapies is reshaping the treatment landscape, with a focus on immunotherapy and personalized medicine [36]. - **New Demand**: There is a growing demand for innovative treatments addressing chronic diseases and improving quality of life, such as obesity and autoimmune disorders [68]. Future Outlook - **Commercialization Potential**: Several innovative drug companies are expected to achieve significant commercialization breakthroughs between 2024 and 2025, expanding their product portfolios and market presence [82][86]. Conclusion The innovative pharmaceutical industry is poised for growth, driven by increasing R&D investments, evolving market demands, and technological advancements. However, companies must navigate profitability challenges and regulatory hurdles to capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Summary of the Conference Call on Home Appliances Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on the home appliances industry, particularly the valuation differences between Chinese white goods giants and overseas leaders [1] Key Points and Arguments Stability and Scarcity as Valuation Premium Foundations - Stability: The core indicator of shareholder returns is ROE, reflecting low profit volatility and stable cash returns. AO Smith shows a significant valuation premium compared to peers: - AO Smith diversifies its revenue sources by expanding overseas, resulting in a low correlation (R² = 0.07) with the U.S. real estate cycle [2] - The impact of metal raw material prices on operating costs is significant (R² = 0.4), but AO Smith, with nearly 40% market share in North American water heaters, can mitigate this through product structure adjustments [2] - AO Smith has maintained a consistent buyback and dividend ratio of around 100% of net profit since 2013, enhancing shareholder returns during performance slowdowns [2] - Scarcity: The uniqueness of business models and brand positioning creates barriers against competition, allowing high-barrier companies to better navigate cycles: - Daikin has established a global production and service system through acquisitions, such as the purchase of Goodman in 2014, leading to an 8.6% CAGR in North American revenue from 2014 to 2021 [2] - Daikin's high-end brand positioning has resulted in a strong market presence, maintaining a 13% share in the Chinese central air conditioning market [2] High and Stable ROE of Chinese Home Appliance Leaders - The home appliance industry exhibits stable demand, with companies reducing the correlation between revenue growth and real estate cycles through exports, price increases, and inventory adjustments. The influence of copper prices on the operating costs of the three major white goods leaders has significantly decreased since 2015 [3] - High standardization of home appliance products allows leading companies to create entry barriers through economies of scale. Despite price sensitivity among consumers, the oligopolistic market structure ensures stable profitability for leading firms [3] - The home appliance sector has sufficient cash to maintain ROE levels, with cash assets constituting 35% of total assets in 2022, indicating a mature and stable industry [3] Valuation Discrepancies Between Chinese and Overseas Leaders - Chinese appliance companies are in a capacity-building phase overseas, leading to higher capital expenditures. The uncertainty in export OEMs necessitates significant upfront investments for local capacity and brand development [4] - The domestic ice washing market is stable, while the air conditioning sector faces cyclical changes. The ice washing market is dominated by Haier, with a shift from volume to price growth, while the air conditioning market is characterized by price competition that can hinder profit growth [4] - A-shares have historically favored growth, but as market demands for certainty increase, the valuation of white goods may improve based on ROE [4] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, suggesting that the high and stable ROE of white goods leaders justifies higher valuations. Key factors include: - Ongoing expansion of self-owned brands overseas, with future capital expenditures tied to market share leadership [7] - Despite cyclical demand and competition in the air conditioning sector, the long-term stability of the market structure supports the industry [7] - As the economy transitions, the market's focus on certainty may enhance the valuation of white goods [7] - The DDM three-stage model suggests a PE valuation midpoint of 17x for Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, with a recommendation to focus on these companies and consider Gree Electric [7] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic uncertainties, intensified industry competition, and deviations in measurement results [8] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of ROE in determining the valuation of home appliance companies, with a stable demand and oligopolistic market structure supporting high and stable ROE [7] - The analysis indicates that the valuation of Chinese white goods may align with the PEG=1 principle, yet it remains lower than that of overseas counterparts [4]