美联储降息预期提升，股指本周触底反弹 日期: 2025-12-20 【股指期货周报20251220】美联储降息预期提升，股指本周触底反弹 策略综述及建议 策略综术 【指数判断】 多只指数型EIT盘中放量。带动股指反弹,美联储再度降息25BP,政治局会议为2006年定调，政策维持宽松,经济工作会议作出方向性部署；中长期来看，国内 市场为流动性叙事,增量资金源源不断,股指盘整过后仍有上行动能。 【逻辑跟踪】 1. 国际形势是复杂的,中美经贸磋商取得积极成果,双方在关税、海事等多方面达成共识。 2. 美国进入新的降息周期,降息利于人民币升值,利于外资回流,带来新的增量资金。 3. 当前稳定资本市场政策积极,股指底线明确。 4.政治局会议及经济工作会议给出方向性指引，包括继续实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力稳定房地产市场。在扩大内需领域更加注重"强大国内市场"的 作用等。 5. 无风险利率降至低位后,中长期资金入市及居民入市将进入全新周期。 6. 未来指数需要关注成交情况,两市成交若能维持在两万亿上方,则仍能维持相对强势。 【风险提示】 1、美通胀再度抬头,未如预期降息;中美摩擦加深。 2、国内经济复苏进程未及预期。 ...

【EGPF周度策略20251214】成本持续下跌叠加远月投产预期, 乙二醇价格持续下行 日期: 2025-12-14 ZHESHANG FUTURE 【EGPF周度策略20251214】成本持续下跌叠加远月投产预期，乙二醇价格持续下行 核心观点 2025-12-14 ● 合约: eq2605 ® 观点: MEG 下跌空间有限,在[3400]价位存在支撑 ® 逻辑： 在成本（油煤）隔弱、自身估值偏高，26年末投产背景下，EGO1价格持续承压，从现实来看，11-12月内累申幅或较划显。且远先仍有新装置投产预期压制，关注宏观层面以及装置变动, 基本面中长周朗看，26-21年乙三醇或进入到新一般的扩散用时，26年新股产约215万吨，2027年之后仍有不少大套装置计划股广，加古雷、中科，壳体等的工期项目，加回趣。中昆，天业之类的新闻的恐色成气氛必,二酶取 目，因此后期乙二醇价格更多呈现底部整理状态。 产业链操作建议 场外报价 入场价格 相关场外产品 参与角色 行为9向 情得向 贵略推荐 买卖 套保比例(%) 现货的口 套保衍生命 | 炼厂 | 库存管理 | 库存偏高，担心乙二醇下跌 | के | 可针对未卖出MEG库存 ...

【EB周度策略20251214】产业链存量博弈，苯乙烯强于纯苯 日期：2025-12-14 【EB周度策略20251214】产业链存量博弈，苯乙烯强于纯苯 核心观点 2025-12-14 ● 合约: eb2602 ® 观点： 苯乙烯 等待做空机会,但上方空间也可能较大 ® 醒姆： 26年纯荷的压力较大，屈产量方面，石油苯牛量随着下半年裂解装置投守能泵及检修结束后施厂开工恢复将显著单加，加富苯产量同比预期相对等平。进口方面，今年比去年同想多进口97万吨，几乎每个月多进 口了老近20万吨，今年上半年练进口量的大幅增加运超市场预期。其中主要增量来自于韩国、6-7.9.统带出国量增持在457吨左右，全年进口同比增幅或拔近20%，需求能释着，花乙烯为主要需求搅崖；166%，，其余万说 播速的缓压著，除己内配缺产量增速假时较高为14%以外，剩下的己二酸、苯酸、苯砂增速和较低、其中己二酸（-3%）和苯胺（-2%）胶产量累划同比硬是虫压转负、烘增需關的目之下，纯粹库用压力或以阻较大。 苹乙烯泡防电压力集中体现在2025年Q4，广西石化、吉林尼化共120万吨中能物优耐投放，新明国昆20万吨PCSM装置11月上点火试车，预计月底 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflow of incremental funds. After the consolidation, the stock index still has upward momentum, as the Fed cuts interest rates by 25BP, the Politburo meeting sets the tone for 2026, and the economic work conference makes directional arrangements [3]. - The international situation is complex, but positive results have been achieved in China - US economic and trade consultations. The US enters a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for RMB appreciation and foreign capital inflow. Current policies for stabilizing the capital market are positive, and the bottom line of the stock index is clear. The Politburo and economic work conferences give directional guidance, and the entry of medium - and long - term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle. The future strength of the index depends on trading volume [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices continued to fluctuate. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.25%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.74%, and the NASDAQ index fell 1.62%. Different industries showed differentiated trends, with sectors such as communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics rising, while coal, petroleum and petrochemical, and steel sectors falling [11][15]. Liquidity - In November, the growth rate of the total social financing scale was stable, while the growth rates of M2 and M1 declined. The M2 - M1 gap widened to 3.1 percentage points. The 11 - month cumulative social financing increment was 33.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.99 trillion yuan year - on - year. The government bond and corporate bond net financing contributed significantly. The 11 - month M2 balance was 336.99 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.5%, and the M1 balance was 112.88 trillion yuan [13][14][16]. Trading Data and Emotions - From January to November 2025, the number of new stock accounts opened by retail investors in the A - share market was 24.5902 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.95%. The number of new accounts opened by institutional investors was 93,400, a year - on - year surge of 35%. The average daily trading volume (MA5) of the two markets slightly increased to 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index [24]. Index Valuation - As of December 12, 2020, the absolute valuation of the index was at a low level, but the quantile was relatively high. For example, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.23, with a quantile of 79.03, and the latest PB of the entire market was 21.73, with a quantile of 81.60. Among the major stock indices, the valuation quantile relationship was CSI 500 < CSI 1000 < SSE 50 < SSE 300 [33]. Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, the top - weighted industries in the SSE 50 were banking, non - banking finance, and food and beverage. The weights of the SSE 300 were more dispersed, with the top three being banking, non - banking finance, and electronics. The top three weighted industries in the CSI 500 were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - banking finance, and in the CSI 1000 were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [47][48][52]. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policies are mainly characterized by loose fiscal and monetary policies. For example, in May 2025, the deposit reserve ratio was reduced by 0.5 percentage points, the policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and a 300 - billion - yuan service consumption and pension refinancing loan was established. The Politburo meeting in December emphasized the role of the "strong domestic market" in expanding domestic demand, and the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement more proactive macro - policies and stabilize the real estate market [53][54][55].

【粕类周报20251212】USDA报告指引性有限，粕类近远月走势 से र 日期：2025-12-12 ZHESHANG FUTURE 【粕类周报20251212】USDA报告指引性有限，粕类近远月走势分化 | 核心观点 2025-12-12 | 核心观点 2025-12-12 | | --- | --- | | * 合约: m2605 ♥ 观点： 豆粕 震荡下行阶段,后期价格中枢有望下降 | * 合约: RM605 ® 观点： 菜籽粕 震荡下行阶段 后期价格中枢有望下降 | | 》 逻辑： 国外方面，美豆新年度基本面偏紧对CBOT大豆价格重心支撑仍在。但南美新作丰产预期持续，压 | 业 逻辑: 国外方面,2025/26年度全球荣籽供需格局竞松,压制荣籽价格重心,关注后续国际贸易政策变动 | | 制CBOT大豆价格走势。短期预计CBOT大豆偏弱震荡。关注后续南美天气变化指引。 | 指引。国内方面，加荣籽反顺捐初裁使其进口面临较高保证金要求，叠加加菜粕关税限制，菜粕后续供应预期 | | 国内方面，年底前大豆及豆粉供需仍相对充足，一季度供应缺口在前期阿根廷大豆采购及后续中美采购预期下 | 持续收紧。但下游水产养 ...

【PXTA周度策略20251207】低估值叠加投产空白期，持续看好 PXTA远月合约 日期：2025-12-05 ZHESHANG FUTUR 【PXTA周度策略20251207】低估值叠加投产空白期，持续看好PXTA远月合约 核心观点 2025-12-05 | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | 场外报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参与角色 行为导向 | 情"向 | 现货 | | 套保衍生品 | 実 | 套保比例(%) 入场价格 | 相关场外产品 | | | | 库存管理 有库存，担心PTA价格下跌 | த | 可针对未卖出PTA库存，按比例小部分 套保做空来预防意外风险 | TA601P4450 | 买入 | 100 20 | | | | 聚酯贸易 | 库存管理 | 有库存，寻求高价卖出PTA | 多 | 可针对未卖出PTA库存，按比例小部分 | TA601P4450 | 买入 | 100 | 20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

策略综述及建议 策略综术 【指数判断】 进入四季度下半旬，板块轮动加快。股指震荡为主;中长期来看,国内市场为流动性叙事,增量资金源源不断，股指盘整过后仍有上行动能。 【逻辑跟踪】 1. 国际形势是复杂的,中美经贸磋商取得积极成果,双方在关税、海事等多方面达成共识。 板块轮动加快，股指缩量震荡 日期：2025-12-07 【股指期货周报20251207】板块轮动加快，股指缩量震荡 2. 美国进入新的降息周期,降息利于人民币升值,利于外资回流,带来新的增量资金。 3.当前稳定资本市场政策积极，股指底线明确，而新技术、新消费在推动者经济预期企稳回升："十五五"规划提高对科技创新要求，扩内需，未来五年政策 大方向落地。 4. 无风险利率降至低位后,中长期资金入市及居民入市将进入全新周期。 5. 未来指数需要关注成交情况,两市成交若能维持在两万亿上方,则仍能维持相对强势。 6. 建议重点配置具备盈利确定性的半导体、AI算力等科技成长赛道，同时关注金融、Giz券 、消费等低估值防御板块的轮动配置价值。 【风险提示】 浙商期货有限公司 报告撰写人:周志超 从业资格号: F03087618 投资咨询号: Z0019474 全 ...

【SH月报20251130】供需宽松难改，关注上游后市主动去库压 户 日期: 2025-11-28 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【SH月报20251130】供需宽松难改，关注上游后市主动去库压力 | 核心观点 | | | | | | | | | | 2025-11-28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | * 观点： 烧碱 震荡下行阶段,后期价格中枢有望下降 | | | * 合约: SH601 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ♥ 逻辑： 当前烧脑的供票搭房放松阳园，上游年内投产和检修结束导致供应销的宽敞搭高一直结特，年内放醇求优养现乏力，较难承食换应。随冬季到来，上游舞廊企业的主动去年压力或将冲击现货市场，可关注盘面反弹 | | | | | | | 那空机会。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | | | 场外报价 | | 参与角色 | 行为驹 | | 現貨(口 策略推荐 | | 套保衍生品 | 买 | 套保比例(% ...

ZHESHANG FUTURES EGPF早报 核心观点 2025-11-25 ® 观点: MEG 区间震荡,区间为[3700,4250] @ 合约: eg2601 � 逻辑： 在成本（油煤）偏弱、自身估值偏高、弱预期（四季度卫星及撬海軍自强加粘龙及弱融投产）背景下，EG01价格持续审压，从现实来看，国庆节中到连较多带来都口库存略有积累。10月累库幅度在7-8万吨附近, 关注福炼、盘虹等装置检修落地。11-12月内累库幅度较为明显，目远月仍有新装置投产预期压制，关注宏观层面以及装置变动, 基本面来看，25年乙二醇整体投产党少，下访紧贴设产进行中，短期符局但时健康。中长周期看，26-27年乙二醇或进入到新一条的扩销局明中，26年新敌宁均215万吨，2027年之后归有不少女套装置试规投产，如古雷、中 戏，裁排等的二期项目，如恒逸、中昆、天业之类的新闻找的合成气制乙二醇项目，因此后朝乙二骑价值褒多呈现底部整理时态，总结束看，油制装置虽乐面首演亏损，但其开停,口对闪润跑的性较低。进口减团原料优越价格普 遍低于国内,在目前的情况下,我们更多参考煤制行业的成本来锚定乙二醇绝对价格区间,即3700-4245元左右。 产业链 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The view is to wait for short - selling opportunities for styrene, but the upside space may also be large, with the contract being eb2512 [5]. - In 2025, the supply pressure of pure benzene is relatively large. Domestic production will increase significantly after the resumption of refinery operations. Import volume is 970,000 tons more than last year, with a year - on - year increase of nearly 20%. The demand growth of downstream products has slowed down. Under the situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, the inventory pressure of pure benzene may still be large [5]. - The pattern of styrene in the second half of the year may be weaker than the previous period. Supply will increase with the restart of domestic and foreign plants and the commissioning of new capacities. The growth of downstream demand is weak, and the high - profit state of styrene may be difficult to sustain. Pay attention to the opportunities of basis decline and profit compression [5]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Day - to - day Description - Crude oil is running weakly overall. The profit of domestic pure benzene has been continuously compressed to a relatively low level, while the non - integrated profit of styrene has been at a high overall valuation recently [9]. Styrene Industry Chain Overview - The report shows the styrene industry chain, including the sources of benzene, production methods of styrene, and its downstream products such as EPS, PS, ABS, etc [10]. Industrial Chain Daily Data - **Toluene Spread**: Data on the spread between toluene and other products in different regions are presented, including the spread between toluene and naphtha in the Americas, and the spread between benzene and toluene in the Americas, Europe, and Asia [13][14]. - **Pure Benzene Spread and Profit**: Information on the profit of domestic pure benzene, pure benzene import profit, and various spreads of pure benzene is provided, such as the spread between Chinese CFR and South Korean FOB [13][29]. - **Other Downstream Profits of Pure Benzene**: Profits of downstream products of pure benzene like caprolactam, phenol, adipic acid, aniline, and the comprehensive profit of pure benzene downstream are shown [31]. - **Styrene Profit and Spread**: Data on non - integrated and integrated (ethylbenzene dehydrogenation) profits of styrene, import profit, and various spreads are given, including the spread between South China and East China [13][32]. - **EB Inventory Situation**: Inventory data of styrene in different regions and overall inventory data are presented, including the inventory of mainstream storage areas in Jiangsu and South China, and the total inventory of styrene factories and ports [32][34]. - **EB Downstream Profit**: Profits of styrene downstream products such as EPS, GPPS, and ABS are shown [34]. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - Different participation roles in the styrene industry chain are given corresponding operation suggestions, including inventory management and procurement management strategies, as well as relevant hedging derivatives and ratios [6]. Attention Data - Pay attention to port inventory data on Mondays and Wednesdays, styrene factory inventory data on Thursdays, styrene downstream inventory data on Thursdays, and pure benzene industry chain operation data on Fridays [7].