惠誉博华 银行 2024 年全球系统重要性银行名单公布，中国 G-SIBs 总损失吸收能力首阶段达标无虞 全球系统重要性银行名单公布，与预测结果基本一致 2024 年 11 月 26 日，金融稳定理事会（FSB）公布 2024 年全球系统重要性银行（G-SIB）名单， 本次公布的名单中来自中国的商业银行数量与上一年保持一致，其中工商银行、中国银行、农业 银行、建设银行继续维持第二组别的位置（bucket 2），而于 2023 年首次入选 G-SIBs 的交通银 行本年继续处于第一组别位置（bucket 1）。 海外银行方面，2023 年入选 G-SIBs 名单的海外机构皆驻留在本年的名单之中，但部分银行的分 数排名及组别划分出现一定的变动。其中，美国银行由于最终评分下降，组别划分由上一年的第 三组变动至本年的第二组，法农信贷则由此前的第一组变动至本年的第二组，其他海外机构组别 未发生变动。 2024 年 10 月，惠誉博华对本年 G-SIBs 名单进行了预测。其中，中资银行预测结果与公布名单完 全一致；海外银行方面，除法农信贷的组别与公布结果存在差异之外，预测名单所含机构及各自 对应组别皆与此次 FSB 公布 ...

Investment Rating - The credit outlook for the airline industry in 2025 is rated as "Low Prosperity Positive" by Fitch Bohua [39]. Core Insights - The Chinese civil aviation industry is transitioning from recovery growth in 2023 to a natural growth phase starting in 2024, with passenger demand expected to maintain single-digit growth in domestic routes and a faster recovery in international routes [39][20]. - The overall profitability of the industry is anticipated to significantly improve due to the release of demand elasticity in domestic routes and the gradual recovery of international routes, despite ongoing price pressures and operational challenges for smaller airlines [39][20]. - The report highlights that the demand for air travel is supported by rising disposable income, increased public holidays, and government policies aimed at boosting consumption [7][39]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2023, the total turnover of civil aviation reached 1,188.3 billion ton-kilometers, marking a year-on-year growth of 98.3% [2]. - For the first ten months of 2024, the total turnover increased by 26.5% to 1,238.3 billion ton-kilometers compared to the same period in 2019 [2][20]. Passenger Demand - Passenger turnover increased by 26.6% to 10,873.3 billion passenger-kilometers, with domestic routes showing a monthly growth rate of 20.6% [2][20]. - International routes are recovering but still lag behind domestic routes, with a monthly growth rate of -16.8% compared to 2019 [2][20]. Cargo Demand - Cargo turnover grew by 27.1% to 288.5 billion ton-kilometers, with international routes experiencing a significant increase of 47.3% due to strong export support [2][20]. Supply Chain and Capacity - The delivery of aircraft is facing delays due to supply chain disruptions, with expected supply growth falling short of projections [12][16]. - The report anticipates that the supply growth rate will decline to approximately 2.0% from 2024 to 2026, indicating strong supply constraints [16]. Financial Performance - The report projects that the airline industry's revenue will grow by approximately 6.0% in 2025, with a profit increase of 51.9% compared to the previous year [23][39]. - The average ticket price for domestic routes has decreased significantly, which may stimulate demand among price-sensitive customers [21][39]. Market Position and Risks - Airlines with strong market positions, effective cost control, and diverse route networks are expected to benefit from improving fundamentals, while smaller and non-listed airlines may face increased operational and financial risks [39][20]. - The report notes that the reliance on government subsidies is decreasing, indicating a recovery in operational performance [39][32].

结构融资 不良住房抵押贷款的回收数据分析 ——来自对不良资产证券化公开数据的观察 相关研究 惠誉博华银行间市场 NPAS 指数报告 2024Q2 2024 年银行间信贷资产证券化展望 惠誉博华 2024 年信用展望：房地产开发 分析师 郑 飞 + 8610 5663 3816 fei.zheng@fitchbohua.com 傅绪林 + 8610 5663 3817 xulin.fu@fitchbohua.com 媒体联系人 李佳林 + 8610 5957 0964 jack.li@thefitchgroup.com 中国房地产市场变革以及国内不良资产证券化市场的高度活跃， 让不良住房抵押贷款资产支持证券（房贷 NPAS）得到更多关注。 自 2016 年以来，国内房贷 NPAS 交易积累了一定体量的资产表现 数据，为不良住房抵押贷款的处置研究提供了丰富素材。惠誉博 华在对房贷 NPAS 回收数据进行分析后，试图对一些市场关注问题 予以回答和评述。 房贷 NPAS 交易的资产池回收水平较高且回收 分布靠前 房贷 NPAS 的资产池回收率一般高于信用类贷款 NPAS，自初始起 算日之后，前三年的累计回收水平中枢分 ...

| --- | --- | |-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 惠誉博华中国化工行业信用梳理（2024） 尽管种类星罗棋布，应用场景千差万别，但目前中国绝大多数 化工产品均遭受供需失衡困扰。化工产品价格变化呈现强周期 性，行业景气度轮动频繁，化工企业业绩随之波动起伏。我们 评估中国化工行业风险状况为"较高"。 惠誉博华主要基于核心产品过剩程度及其在产品组合中的比重 评估企业化工产品组合基本面。规模庞大、产品定价能力强与 进入壁垒高的化工企业具有更为显著的市场地位。产品组合、 终端应用、区域足迹与厂址/产业园的多样化有助于分散企业 的经营风险。成本转嫁能力强、一体化程度高、具备柔性生产 能力与供应商分散特征是化工企业巩固成本地位的要义。资本 支出庞大导致自由现金流为负、部分龙头企业债务规模持续扩 张引发杠杆高企、短期偿债指标（流动性倍数）表现不佳是中 国化工企业面临的三大财务风险。 样本化工企业潜在独立信用状况集中于"一般"区间，这体现 了其经营与财务表现受周期轮动影响较大的特点。 ...

Core Insights - The report predicts that the grouping of Chinese G-SIBs will remain stable in 2024, with major state-owned banks maintaining their positions in the second group and the Bank of Communications in the first group [1][8] - The total number of G-SIBs is expected to remain at 29, with potential changes in the grouping of certain institutions, particularly a possible downgrade for American banks [7][20] - Agricultural Bank of China is projected to have the highest score increase among Chinese G-SIBs, rising by 21 points to 256, while other major banks like ICBC and Bank of China are expected to see slight declines in their scores [8][12] Summary by Sections Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) Overview - The G-SIB framework was established to mitigate risks posed by large banks during financial crises, requiring them to hold higher capital based on their group classification [3][4] - The report indicates that the 2024 G-SIBs list will be published in November 2024, with the current predictions aligning closely with previous assessments [7][8] Chinese G-SIBs Performance - The five major state-owned banks in China have consistently been included in the G-SIBs list since its inception, with their group classifications varying over the years [2][8] - The Agricultural Bank of China has shown significant growth, with its score increasing by 21 points, while ICBC and Bank of China are expected to see declines of 8 and 7 points, respectively [8][12] Factors Influencing Scores - Key factors affecting the scores of Chinese G-SIBs include growth in size, interbank asset and liability expansion, and payment amounts processed [12][13] - Exchange rate fluctuations have negatively impacted the scores of Chinese banks, with the depreciation of the RMB against major currencies leading to a decrease in scores by 4-8 points [13][18] Predictions for Other Regions - In the European Banking Union (EBU), most banks are expected to see score increases, driven primarily by exchange rate changes, while Deutsche Bank and Société Générale are projected to continue their downward trends [14][15] - North American banks are expected to maintain their number in the G-SIBs list, but most are likely to experience score declines, with American Bank potentially dropping from the third to the second group [20][21] Conclusion - The report emphasizes the stability of Chinese G-SIBs in the upcoming year, with Agricultural Bank of China leading in score improvements, while external factors such as exchange rates and regulatory changes continue to play a significant role in the overall assessment of global banks [8][13][20]

惠誉博华 工商企业 宏观 增量政策势大力强 经济回升走向确立 三季度，中国 GDP 季调环比折年率回升至 3.6%，较二季度 2.0%的增速加快 1.6 个百分点，经济触底回升势头确立。"两 新"政策效应与出口保持韧性推动工业生产保持较快增长，不 过，在有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩以及通缩压力下，工 业企业利润承压。近期出台的一揽子增量政策将有助于提升居 民消费意愿与能力，增强政府与企业采购能力，社零增长有望 提速。9 月固定资产投资同比增长较 8 月加快，基建、制造业 与房地产均有不同程度改善，尤其是广义基建投资更是出现大 幅增长，对整体固定资产投资起到了很好的拉动作用；随着资 金加快落地并在年内形成实物工作量，四季度固定资产投资， 尤其是基建投资增速有望加快。近期房地产市场出现积极变 化，9 月房地产开发景气指数呈现连续6 个月小幅走高，显示房 地产行业渐趋温和回暖。外需转弱叠加偶发因素导致中国出口 在 9 月份超预期走低；中期来看，在外需走弱、贸易壁垒与关 税日益增加影响下，中期中国出口将再度面临挑战。 惠誉博华认为，面对有效需求不足、经济增长乏力挑战，9 月 底以来中国政府紧锣密鼓祭出的一揽子经济刺 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 惠誉博华月度热点洞察：2024 年 10 月 热点洞察： • 经济增长底部已现，政策驱动回升在即 • 化债政策对地方政府的财政收入和地方直接债务将产生 何种影响？ • 如何评估新一轮化债政策对不同地区城投公司的影响差 异？ • 近期房地产新政与过往政策有何不同？对提振市场起到 了什么作用？ • 近期宏观政策密集出台后，如何看待钢铁行业短期的基 本面？国庆节假期前后黑色系价格的大幅上涨是否可以 持续？ • 于本月中旬召开的光伏行业座谈会向市场传递了什么信 号？本次会议所达成的合作共识是否是在中国光伏产品 出海受阻情况下的主动应对？ 惠誉博华 分析师 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------| ...

金融机构 商业银行 商业银行 2024 年半年度业绩点评 一揽子政策对商业银行净息差冲击有限，核销力度加大维持资产质量稳定 惠誉博华预计，未来存款利率进一步下调将一定程度上对冲存 量按揭贷款利率下调对商业银行净息差和营业收入的负面影 响，但不足以弥补 LPR 下调对商业银行净息差的削弱，预料 2025 年商业银行净息差将小幅收窄，但整体处于可控范围。 本次一揽子政策着力于刺激总需求改善，有利于商业银行贷款 增速企稳，存量按揭利率下调也将有利于遏制房贷早偿，并对 按揭贷款资产质量产生一定积极影响，以量换价下存量按揭贷 款利率下调和 LPR 下调对商业银行盈利能力影响或有所减弱。 2024 年上半年，利率下行周期中部分银行依靠债券投资收益 等其他收入有效补充了传统存贷业务的利息净收入下滑。制造 业、批发零售业等顺周期行业贷款资产质量出现明显改善，房 地产对公贷款不良率三年来首现下降。个人住房贷款不良率呈 现持续走高趋势，从绝对水平来看国有大行与股份制银行仍处 于安全范围，但是主要分布在二三线城市及县域地区的区域银 行，相对低迷的房价和区域经济活力不足对个人住房贷款资产 质量造成一定冲击。 2024 年上半年商业银 ...

概览 指数报告 NPAS 银行间市场 NPAS 指数 2024 年第 2 季度 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|----------------|--------|--------| | | 24Q2 24Q1 23Q4 | | | | 房贷 NPAS | | | | | 样本初始资产规模（亿元） | 978.4 | 1274.6 | 1525.0 | | 当期回收景气度 | 2.6 | 10.2 | 42.9 | | 累计回收景气度 | 28.9 | 35.3 | 49.2 | | 信用卡 NPAS | | | | | 样本初始资产规模（亿元） | 2060.0 | 2512.8 | 2588.4 | | 当期回收景气度 | 36.6 | 38.8 | 44.4 | | 累计回收景气度 | 31.0 | 31.4 | 38.5 | | 信用消费贷 NPAS | | | | | 样本初始资产规模（亿元） | 74.5 | 174.0 | 172.5 | | 当期回收景气度 | 33.3 | 37.5 | 37.5 | ...

Industry Overview - The European new car market showed significant recovery in 2023, with passenger car sales reaching 12.847 million units, marking the first positive growth since the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - The Chinese new car market was approximately twice the size of Europe's, with sales of 26.063 million units in 2023 [2] - The European new car market is highly concentrated, with the top five markets (Germany, UK, France, Italy, and Spain) accounting for about 70% of total sales, and the top five manufacturers holding a combined market share of 60-70% [2] Used Car Market Dynamics - The European used car market is significantly larger and more active than the new car market, with sales in the top five markets nearly three times that of new car sales [3] - The used car market in Europe accounts for about 10% of the total car stock, with the UK reaching as high as 20%, compared to less than 5% in China [3] - Used car prices in Europe remain at historically high levels, driven by supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, although prices have slightly declined since 2023 [3] Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) Market - The proportion of used car assets in European ABS markets is increasing, with manufacturer-affiliated transactions typically having 20-60% used car assets, while non-manufacturer transactions tend to have higher proportions [7] - The used car financing market is steadily growing, influencing the asset composition of European ABS markets [7] Default and Recovery Performance - Used car assets generally exhibit higher cumulative default rates compared to new car assets, with more significant historical volatility, reflecting lower average credit quality of used car borrowers [10] - Recovery performance for defaulted assets primarily relies on the disposal of collateral vehicles, with recovery rates influenced by used car market prices [12] - Recovery rates for defaulted assets are generally faster, with most recoveries occurring within six months of default [12] Market Share Analysis - Volkswagen Group leads the European new car market with a 25.9% share, followed by Stellantis (16.6%) and Renault Group (9.7%) [16] - Hyundai Group and Toyota Group hold 8.6% and 6.9% market shares, respectively, while BMW Group and Mercedes-Benz account for 7.1% and 5.5% [16] Sample Data Overview - The report includes 12 sample datasets from five major European car manufacturers across five countries, covering loan and lease assets with varying default and recovery rates [17]