Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the shipping industry, particularly in the container shipping segment, driven by the Red Sea crisis and expected economic growth in the US and Europe [1][8]. Core Insights - The Red Sea crisis is expected to benefit the shipping industry by increasing container shipping demand and leading to record deliveries of container ships in 2024. However, once the crisis is resolved, there may be a return to oversupply and lower freight rates [1][4]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance among different shipping segments, with container shipping and dry bulk shipping expected to perform better than oil shipping and domestic trade shipping, which will remain under pressure [1][36]. - Economic growth in the US and Europe is projected to contribute positively to global container shipping demand in 2024, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism [8][11]. Summary by Sections Container Shipping - The container shipping index is expected to rise significantly in the short term due to the Red Sea crisis, with a 133% increase in China's export container freight index (CCFI) year-to-date, and a 209% increase on European routes [2][4]. - The report anticipates that the container shipping segment will experience a supply-demand imbalance, leading to sustained high freight rates in 2024, although a return to lower equilibrium rates is expected once the crisis is resolved [2][4]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The dry bulk shipping segment is projected to maintain a relatively balanced supply-demand situation, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) expected to fluctuate at high levels. The report notes a decrease of 18.4% in BDI year-to-date, but it remains at a historically high level [16][21]. - The report indicates that the demand for iron ore and coal remains stable, with China's iron ore imports increasing by 6.2% year-on-year [22][24]. Oil Shipping - The oil shipping segment is experiencing a supportive environment due to supply constraints and growing demand, with the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) rising by 4.9% year-to-date [24][26]. - However, long-term growth in oil demand is expected to slow down due to the transition to cleaner energy sources, which may limit the industry's growth potential [24][28]. Domestic Trade Shipping - Domestic trade shipping is facing challenges due to insufficient effective demand, with the domestic container shipping index hitting historical lows. The report notes a 2.7% increase in domestic cargo throughput, significantly lower than the 8.8% increase in foreign trade throughput [29][33]. - The report suggests that policy support and market adjustments will help domestic shipping navigate through this downturn [33][36]. Financial Performance - The report highlights a significant divergence in financial performance among shipping companies, with container shipping companies expected to see improved credit quality due to rising freight rates, while those focused on domestic trade may continue to struggle [36][41]. - The report also notes that the EBITDA margin for sample companies in the shipping sector has shown significant variation, with container shipping companies experiencing a decline in profitability due to supply chain disruptions and new ship deliveries [37][41].

生产强需求弱，经济再放缓 扩内需稳外贸，政策又发力 相关研究 常海中 + 86 (10) 5663 3870 haizhong.chang@fitchbohua.com 刘濛洋，CPA，FRM + 86 (10) 5663 3875 mengyang.liu@fitchbohua.com 惠誉博华 工商企业 宏观 囿于有效需求不足，二季度经济增长压力有所加大，GDP 同比 增长 4.7%，明显低于市场预期，且呈现出生产强、需求弱、外 需旺、内需淡的增长特征。6 月，工业生产保持较快增长，增 速反超服务生产；需求不旺，CPI 同比升幅放缓，基数走低， PPI 同比降幅收窄；社零增长放缓明显，低迷的消费尽管与南 方地区暴雨与洪涝灾害影响不无关系，但更主要的还是社会有 效需求不足以及全国居民可支配收入增速放缓所致。二季度， 居民可支配收入增速较一季度回落，恩格尔系数暂时回撤至 2014 年时水平。上半年，超长期特别国债、专项债等发行使用 为基建投资增长提供了资金保障，基建投资（不含电力）同比 增长较快；得益于出口走强与大规模设备更新政策实施，制造 业投资保持高速增长；政策刺激下房地产市场表现略有起色。 当前，全球主 ...

惠誉博华 工商企业 煤炭采掘 煤价步入下行周期，多数煤企盈利腰斩 分析师 媒体联系人 唐大千 CPA，CFA +86 (10) 5663 3873 darius.tang@fitchbohua.com 经济增长挑战与用电量增速转化受阻掣肘动力煤耗用，而炼焦煤需求前景更难言乐观 煤炭总供给虽存边际回落预期，但仍盘踞于高位区间，这使得其与不温不火甚至于部分领域深陷 低迷的终端需求间的矛盾不断显露。中国经济正处于向新质生产力转型的启航阶段，并面临有效 需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱等诸多挑战。2024 年上半年，中国宏观经济录得 5.0%的温和增长，但二季度 GDP 增速降至 4.7%，不及预期且低于政府设定的 5.0%的目标水平， 这一趋势对与经济活动及居民生活广泛挂钩的动力煤需求增长形成掣肘。2024 年 1~5 月，中国实 现全社会用电量 38,370 亿千瓦时，同比增长 8.6%，增速虽逐月滑落但仍处于过去十年间乐观位 置。然而，我们依然看重经济信号向用电量的传导以及对于动力煤需求更具决定性的——降雨充 沛水电多发对火电的短期挤出效应与新能源装机增长对传统电源的长期替代趋势。2024 年上半年， ...

钢铁行业寒意难消,分化加剧出清加速 2024 年初以来,中国经济增长结构不平衡,社会有效需求总体 不足,房地产行业超预期下滑,导致钢铁行业持续承压,供需双 弱态势延续。 供给端,中国粗钢产量在 2024 年将向更低平衡中枢靠拢;"十 四五"及"十五五"阶段产量预计将处在顶部平台期呈箱体波 动。需求端,我们认为 2024 年,地产用钢仍将是重要拖累;作 为经济增长压舱石的基建对钢材需求增长的效用斜率放缓;制造 业投资已晋升为钢材需求最主要的增量来源,但该增量仍不足以 对冲地产需求下降引致的缺口;全年钢材出口量预计维持高位, 或直追 2015-2016 年波峰。2024 年,供需双弱格局下钢铁行业 将在 2023 年水位下寻求新的均衡价格及均衡量;需求疲软仍是 行业盈利承压的核心掣肘因素。 企业层面,行业景气持续低迷将导致行业整体盈利恶化、财务杠 杆及财务灵活性指标走弱,企业间信用质量分化加剧,行业出清 或将加速。中长期来看,部分竞争能力低下、产品低端且单一、 利润持续走低同时债务负担较重的尾部钢企在本次下行周期中或 被迫出局,或被具有资金、技术、管理等多重优势的头部钢企所 兼并,这也与中国政府提升行业集中度的政 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging environment for the photovoltaic manufacturing industry due to supply-demand imbalances and trade frictions, leading to a cautious investment outlook [2][14]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic manufacturing sector has seen significant capacity expansion driven by high demand from 2021 to 2022, but faces difficulties in matching this supply with actual demand [3][5]. - By the end of 2023, China's polysilicon production reached 1.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 66.9%, with wafer, cell, and module production also showing substantial growth [3]. - The report highlights that the actual capacity utilization rates for major manufacturers remain relatively high, but nominal capacity utilization has declined due to the rapid expansion of new capacities [3][14]. - The anticipated global installation of new photovoltaic capacity in 2024 is projected to be 460GW, which is only about 50% of China's production capacity, exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch [5][11]. - The report emphasizes that the long-term growth of photovoltaic demand is under threat due to challenges in grid integration and increasing curtailment rates of solar power [11][14]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The photovoltaic manufacturing industry is experiencing a significant oversupply, with production capacity far exceeding the expected demand for new installations [3][5]. - The report notes that the supply of photovoltaic products has been growing at a rate that outpaces the growth of installation capacity, leading to a potential market correction [3][11]. Financial Health of Companies - The financial flexibility and credit quality of companies in the photovoltaic sector are under pressure due to declining product prices and increasing competition [14]. - The report indicates that while some leading companies have managed to maintain financial stability through aggressive pricing strategies, the overall profitability of the sector is declining [14]. Trade and Regulatory Environment - The report discusses the impact of trade tensions, particularly with the U.S., which has initiated investigations into imports of photovoltaic products from Southeast Asia, potentially affecting the operations of major Chinese manufacturers [14]. - Regulatory measures aimed at curbing overcapacity and promoting high-quality development in the photovoltaic sector have been introduced, but their effectiveness remains uncertain [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the commercial banking sector, with a focus on credit quality and structural adjustments in lending practices [2][5][7]. Core Insights - The commercial banking sector is experiencing a slowdown in credit growth due to weak demand, with a shift towards policy-driven lending in emerging sectors [2][5][8]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks has narrowed, dropping to 1.5% in Q1 2024, with ongoing pressure on interest income [20][11]. - The asset quality of commercial banks remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.59% as of Q1 2024, indicating effective risk management despite challenges in certain sectors [25][31][21]. Summary by Sections Credit Demand and Structure - In 2023, credit demand was weak, leading to a slowdown in lending growth, characterized by a strong focus on corporate loans and a decline in retail lending [2][5]. - The credit structure is shifting towards emerging industries such as green energy and manufacturing, with significant growth in loans to these sectors [5][7]. Interest Margin and Income - The net interest margin has continued to decline, with a drop from 1.7% in 2023 to 1.5% in Q1 2024, driven by lower interest income and increased competition for deposits [20][11]. - Non-interest income has become a more significant part of overall revenue, accounting for 25.6% of total income in Q1 2024 [11][14]. Asset Quality - The overall asset quality of commercial banks is stable, with a slight increase in the NPL balance to CNY 3.2 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.14% [21][25]. - The NPL ratio for major banks has improved slightly, while rural commercial banks face more significant challenges due to higher credit risk exposure [27][32]. Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks remained stable at 15.1% by the end of 2023, with variations across different types of banks [44][46]. - The issuance of subordinated debt and perpetual bonds is expected to increase as banks seek to bolster their capital positions amid ongoing pressures [49][51].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish outlook on energy metals, suggesting a trend towards mean reversion in prices after a period of exuberance [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The energy metals sector is experiencing a significant supply increase, with lithium, cobalt, and nickel production expected to grow substantially in 2024, leading to a continued oversupply situation [19][22]. - The demand for energy metals is projected to decline, particularly for cobalt and nickel, as the growth in end-user applications, especially in consumer electronics, is slowing down [23][25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of recycling and the increasing control of resource-rich countries over energy metal supplies as long-term trends [22]. Summary by Sections Supply Dynamics - Global lithium, cobalt, and nickel reserves have increased significantly, with lithium reserves reaching 28 million metric tons, cobalt at 11 million metric tons, and nickel exceeding 130 million metric tons, marking year-on-year growth of 7.7%, 32.5%, and 30.0% respectively [6][8]. - The production of lithium is expected to grow by approximately 40% in 2024, while cobalt and nickel are projected to see growth rates of 7%-12% and 10%-15% respectively [19][21]. Production Trends - In 2023, global lithium production reached 185,000 metric tons, with Australia contributing 86,000 metric tons, accounting for nearly 50% of the total [8][10]. - Cobalt production was dominated by the Democratic Republic of Congo, which produced 170,000 metric tons, representing 74% of global output [8][10]. - Nickel production in Indonesia reached 1.8 million metric tons, making it the largest producer globally [8][10]. Financial Performance of Key Companies - Major energy metal companies are facing declining profit margins, with Tianqi Lithium's net profit dropping by 17.5% year-on-year in 2023 [2][5]. - The average gross margin for lithium producers has decreased significantly, with some companies reporting margins as low as 1.4% in Q2 2023 [5]. Demand Outlook - The demand for lithium is primarily driven by battery manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 87% of its usage, while cobalt is also heavily utilized in battery applications but has significant use in alloys [23][25]. - The report notes a decline in global shipments of consumer electronics, which negatively impacts the demand for cobalt and nickel [23][25]. Recycling and Government Control - The report highlights the increasing importance of recycling as a source of supply for energy metals, with a target for recycled metal supply to reach over 24% by the end of 2025 in China [22]. - Resource-rich countries are strengthening their control over energy metal resources, leading to potential disruptions in global supply chains [22].

指数报告 消费贷 ABS 2024 年第 1 季度 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 惠誉博华银行间市场消费贷ABS指数 发起机构权重 招商银行 兴业消费 马上消费 捷信消费 平安银行 杭州银行 交通银行 建设银行 中信银行 中原消费 常熟农商 广州银行 杭银消费 光大银行 长银五八 中银消费 广发银行 金美信消费 四川锦程 海尔消费 湖北消费 浦发银行 中邮消费 银行间市场消费贷 ABS 指数 0 10 20 30 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 惠誉博华银行间市场消费贷ABS指数 M2/M3逾期率 笔数（右轴） M2逾期率 M2逾期率: 3个月移动平均值 M3逾期率 M3逾期率: 3个月移动平均值 来源：受托报告、惠誉博华 来源：受托报告、惠誉博华 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 自发行经历月份 累计违约率（按发行年份统计） 2015 2016 2017 2020 2021 2022 注：2015至2021年发行的消费贷ABS产品不再公布受托报告。 来源：受托报告、 ...

更是突破年初指引上限。2024 年，除淡水河谷维持指引产量（较 2023 年初）不变外，力拓、必和必拓与 FMG 均上调了年度产量指 引，使得四大矿山 2024 年铁矿石指引总产量居于 11.07 亿吨 ~11.49 亿吨区间，下、上限较 2023 年初指引总产量 10.95 亿吨 ~11.37 亿吨均上涨约 1.1%。主流矿山超额达产与指引产量上调使 得铁矿石供给进入相对宽松局面，这与达产多不及 2023 年初指引 并广泛下调 2024 年指引产量而呈现供给紧张的铜矿石形成鲜明对 比（详见惠誉博华 3 月发布的《供给不及预期、低碳经济高速发展 助推"铜博士"身价走高》热点透视报告）。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|----------------|---------|-----------------------------------------|-------------|---------------|----------------|-------- ...