本次会议为中国国际金融股份有限公司中金公司闭门会议 仅限受邀嘉宾参会未经中金公司和演讲嘉宾书面许可 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息独来公布转发 转载 传播 复制 编辑 修改等如有上述违法行为 中金公司保留追究相关方法律责任的权利 这次会议是中国国际资产合作组织CICC的闭门会议只有邀请客人可以参加没有CICC和评论员的签名允许任何组织或人员不得删除、翻载、删除、複製、複制或更改会议内容和相关资讯 好的各位尊敬的投资者各位尊敬的客户大家晚上好我是中金公司的策略组的刘刚Kevin非常高兴也是感谢大家在晚上这个宝贵的时间参加我们线上的交流汇报会 今天我主要想给大家汇报一下我们关于2024年下半年全球主要的市场和资产的一个展望那这个时间其实也刚刚好因为今天早上美联储六月的议期刚结束昨天晚上又是美国五月份的CPI上一周是美国的非农一个超预期一个低预期然后美联储今天给出的降息的点阵图只有一次还是超大家预期的 所以呢我们想在这个时间点呢回答几个大家都可能比较关心的问题我想大家如果关切这个全球的市场海外的资产还有中国包括港股市场都会不禁的问几个问题比如说从海外来讲美国有些数据大家看到一会好一会坏有的数据好有 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 全球市场2024下半年展望：滞胀、衰退，还是修复？20240613 摘要 · 美联储在6月议息会议上仅暗示一次加息，超出市场预期，导致市场对降息预期波动较 大。美国经济周期处于滞胀修复还是衰退阶段尚不明确，市场对未来趋势存在分歧\ 尽管美联储尚未明确降息，但其他央行如欧央行和加拿大央行已采取降息措施，并带来 了不同的市场反应。欧央行降息后，欧元上涨、欧洲股市下跌、欧洲债券利率上升，可 能意味着宽松政策已过半场。 更多 ·中国和港股市场在资金链驱动下可能出现反弹,但需要警惕其力度和持续性。需关注全 球宏观环境对中国市场的影响，以及宽松政策是否已过半场，未来政策是否需要额外支 持。 开报数据力 ·全球资产配置建议参考2020年疫情期间至2021年初的资产表现，不同阶段配置不同类 型资产。在宽松政策初期，可以配置金融属性较强的资产，而在经济增长阶段，可以转 向增长逻辑较强的资产如铜等。 强的资产在宽松预期下表现良好，而随着时间推移，增长逻辑较强的资产如铜等可能会 继续走强。 · 今年市场表现复杂，交易活动集中在一个季度内完成，涵盖了多种资产类别，反映出市 场在 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The document discusses the global macroeconomic environment, focusing on the US and Eurozone economies, as well as the performance of the technology sector, particularly Big Tech companies [4][5][12]. Core Economic Insights - **US Economic Slowdown**: There are signs of a mild slowdown in the US economy, with pending home sales and the month-over-month FHFA price index both surprising to the downside. Domestic final sales in Q1 were revised down to 2.8% from 3.1%, indicating a healthy but slowing economy [5][7]. - **Inflation Trends**: Core PCE inflation moderated to 0.249% month-over-month, down from stronger Q1 numbers, but remains high year-to-date. Core services PCE inflation increased to 0.27%, which is still concerning for the Federal Reserve [5][12]. - **Eurozone Inflation**: The Eurozone's headline inflation was reported at 2.6%, slightly above consensus, while core inflation reached 2.9%, 20 basis points above forecasts. Services inflation rose to 4.1%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [5][12]. Earnings Season Highlights - **Strong Earnings Performance**: The S&P 500 earnings season has been strong, with earnings per share (EPS) up 7.8%, surpassing the 7-year average of 5.24%. Approximately 80% of companies reporting exceeded expectations, which is above the long-term average of 76% [12][19]. - **Big Tech's Contribution**: Big Tech companies, particularly NVIDIA (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOGL), have significantly contributed to this earnings season, driving a third consecutive quarter of positive operating leverage for the S&P 500 [12][19]. - **Future Earnings Revisions**: Big Tech leads in year-to-date revisions for earnings over the next 12 months, while small-cap companies remain the weak link with no upward revisions [12][19]. Market Outlook - **Equity Valuation**: Stocks appear fully valued, with a year-end target for the S&P 500 set at 5300, aligning with current levels. A material pullback in US stocks is believed to require an outright recession [12][19]. - **Currency Dynamics**: The US dollar is expected to perform positively, with FX volatility near post-COVID lows. The document highlights the importance of monitoring large East Asian currencies for potential pressure [19][12]. Additional Considerations - **Economic Growth Forecasts**: Consensus forecasts for Q4/Q4 GDP growth have been adjusted from 0.7% to 1.75%, indicating a more optimistic outlook. Core PCE inflation forecasts have also risen to 2.8% from 2.3% [19][12]. - **Investment Strategy**: The report suggests a neutral duration stance while being overweight on risk assets, anticipating a grind higher in equities despite low conviction [19][12]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and market performance.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Goldman Equity Sachs Research 11 June 2024 / 9:03PM BST Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO): 45th Annual Global Healthcare Conference - Key Takeaways shuinu987 Global Healthcare Conference June 10-13, 2024 | Miami Explore > James Quigle +44(20)7051-3800 Tjames.quigley@gs.com Goldman Sachs Intemational +44(20)7051-7995 ajan.sharma@gs.cor Goldman Sachs Intemational Presenters: Ulrich Christian Otte (Senior Vice President, North America Finance and Operations) presented at the 45th Annual Glob ...

高盛：市场日报_法国大选——OAT部分不受政策影响，但暴露于政治 ...

周研纪要关注公众号：水木纪要 BC Research I Global Investment Strategy May 24, 2024 Strategy Report The Narrow Path To A Soft Landing Listen to a short summary of this report In this Issue Everything Which is Not Forbidden is Allowed 03 1. Soft Landing for the US Labor Market 06 2. Soft Landing for Cyclically- SensitiveT Spending 报数据加 3.Soft Landing for the Financial System 15 4.Soft Landing for Inflation 16 5.Soft Landing for the Rest of the World 20 Investment Conclusions Executive Summary . There is a path to a soft la ...

本次会议为中信证券白名单会议仅限受邀客户参会未经中信证券和演讲嘉宾书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息对外公布、转发、转载、传播、复制、编辑、修改等如有上述违法行为中信证券保留追究相关方法律责任的权利 感谢各位投资人在今天下午的时间参加中信证券和中信洋证券联合的电话会我是中信证券的首席科技产业分析师许英博今天在线的还有我的同事通信产业分析师首席分析师黄亚元云基础设施首席分析师丁奇 前瞻分析师高飞翔通信行业分析师李尧通信行业分析师魏鹏程云音用行业分析师孙敬耀以及电子行业分析师雷俊成此外呢我们还这个很很开心的邀请到了中信杨振券的就是Analyst Head of China Technology Research Tony我们一起来跟大家沟通一下今天早上我们外发的这篇报告全球视角下的AI色历投资机遇与展望 那这个报告呢其实它的背景是这样的就是第一个呢就是AI从这个ChartGPT到现在2022年底到现在引发了全球的关注那么英伟达的业绩从去年的Q1开始5月份之后给了一个非常强劲的Q2的指引连续几个季度的超预期到目前为止英伟达的市值超过了3万亿美元成为了全球第二大市值的公司 那也有人在问说会不会走 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 7 June 2024 | 10:08PM BST Global Rates Trader Cuts and data diverge A strong jobs report challenged the emerging narrative of a weakening US economy, George Cole +44(20)7552-1214 | and unwound most of the week’s rally that started with the ISM miss on Monday. george.cole@gs.com Goldman Sachs International We think the risk is skewed towards higher yields next week, given the uncertainties Bill Zu around CPI and the hawkish risk of a one-cut baseline in the June Fed’s dot plot. T ...

三、凭信成本优势带： 节来较高盈利达 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Equity Research 5 June 2024 Global Semiconductors & Semi Cap Equipment 2nm – A very big node indeed FOCUS #Transatlantic TSMC expects 2nm to be a 'very, very big' node. Our analysis shows that this could well be true for the entire industry and that the ramp of 2nm could be significantly faster than for 3nm European Technology Hardware NEUTRAL as datacentre is becoming the driver of leading-edge logic Unchanged demand overtaking smartphones. This is positive for semicap European ...