Flash | 13 Feb 2025 18:46:37 ET │ 10 pages Applied Materials Inc (AMAT.O) Management Callback Notes CITI'S TAKE We spoke with AMAT management post Jan-Q earnings and recap key takeaways. China restriction impact: The company expects ~$400M impact from China, split ~50/50 between equipment and services. ~50% will happen in FQ2, and most of the equipment impact would be in FQ2. There will still be services impact in FQ3 and FQ4 but it does not get larger. On the systems side, AMAT is not able to sell anything ...

February 7, 2025 04:55 AM GMT IT Hardware | North America Cloud Capex Tracker: AMZN Capex Commentary Drives '25 Capex Growth to 32% Y/Y Following tonight's implied CY25 capex guide from AMZN (~ $105B), Cloud Capex is now expected to surpass $350B in 2025, +32% Y/Y, 3 pts higher than our forecast earlier this week. Mgmt commentary highlights a continued ramp of tech infrastructure, bolstering the bull case for AI/cloud capex stocks. CY25 Cloud capex moves another 3 points higher (to +32% Y/Y) after AMZN's st ...

V i e w p o i n t | 10 Jan 2025 03:00:00 ET │ 12 pages US Semiconductors More CES DRAM Datapoints – PC End Market Slow, Handsets a Little Better Although DRAM Inventory in PC Market Almost Normal CITI'S TAKE We met with companies across the memory, PC and cell phone food chain at CES this week. It appears demand in the PC food chain is a little sluggish, while cell phone demand appears "ok". However, DRAM inventory in the PC food chain has declined and is close to optimal levels while in the cell phone food ...

AI Instances grew +0.9% M/M in November, down from +3.3% in October. NVDA took the lion's share of new Accelerator instances in the month at 97.7%, increasing total share +30bps M/M to 85.0%. AMD continues to outpace INTC in CPUs, gaining +70bps driven by EPYC Genoa while INTC declined -70bps. MSFT continues to lead CSPs in VM Instances with 35.3% share with 90+% coming from CPU instances. AMD Maintains Accelerator Share, While NVDA Gains: Total Dedicated Accelerators increased +0.9% M/M compared to +3.3% i ...

ab 6 January 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research US Aerospace & Defense 2025 Outlook: Favor OE/AM barbell as BA ramps, not expecting DoD cuts but remain selective Key A&D Debates and Top Picks for 2025 In 2025, we see opportunity in both commercial OE and AM, and believe a barbell approach is the best positioning to capture both improving production rates and hedge supply chain risk. We model BA MAX production at 38/mo by October and expect the stock to outperform as the market prices in no ...

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: China Entertainment, specifically focusing on short and mini dramas. * **Key Company**: Hongguo Drama (ByteDance Group), a free short drama app. * **Analyst Firm**: Goldman Sachs China Entertainment. Key Points 1. **Rapid Growth of Short and Mini Drama Industry**: * The short and mini drama industry has experienced significant growth, with a TAM of RMB 50 billion in 2024E, surpassing the domestic box office of the movie industry. * The industry is expected to grow at a 22% CAGR from 2024 to 2027E, reaching RMB 91 billion by 2027E. * The format is gaining popularity due to its convenience, affordability, and diverse content offerings. 2. **Monetization Model Shift**: * The monetization model is shifting from In-App Purchase (IAP) to In-App Advertising (IAA), with IAA expected to account for 70% of total revenue by 2027E. * The freemium model, particularly with Hongguo Drama, is becoming increasingly popular, driven by its free access and ad-supported content. 3. **Key Players and Value Chain**: * Key players include short drama producers, advertising platforms (e.g., Douyin, Kuaishou, Tencent), and content producers/IP owners. * Advertising platforms, particularly Douyin and Kuaishou, are expected to benefit significantly from the rising short drama TAM and advertising spend. * Producers typically earn around 12% of total revenue, with the majority of revenue going to advertising platforms for marketing and user acquisition. 4. **Overseas Opportunities**: * The overseas short drama market is still in its early stages, with the US being the largest market. * The overseas TAM is expected to reach over US$10 billion with 200-300 million users in the future. * Challenges include enriching localized content offerings and improving profitability due to higher production costs in overseas regions. 5. **Impact on Long-Form Video (LFV) Platforms**: * The rise of short and mini dramas is gaining time share and may affect content consumption habits, potentially challenging LFV incumbents like IQ and Mango. * LFV platforms are increasingly introducing mini and short dramas to their content libraries to stay competitive. Potential Winners and Losers * **Winners**: * Advertising platforms (e.g., Douyin, Kuaishou, Tencent) * Short drama producers * Hongguo Drama (ByteDance Group) * **Losers**: * LFV platforms (e.g., IQ, Mango) * Traditional LFV producers

CXMT 能否赶上 DDR5？以下是根据我们的渠道调查的最新行业更新： 年翻倍，占全球总比特供应量的 9%。 预期之外的消费者需求在 2025 年上半年的复苏 DoSilicon 有限公司 (688110.SS) 基础案例，来源于剩余收益模型。我们假设股本成本为 7.45%（无风险利率为 2.5%，风险溢价为 4.5%，贝塔值为 1.1），并假设终值增长率为 5%。 上 由于公司市场份额的增加，预期之外的出货量增加 下行风险 《中国 DRAM 的崛起》 摩根士丹利亚洲有限公司 当前，存储器行业正面临三大挑战：1) 周期性衰退，2) 高带宽存储器（HBM）的竞争，以 及 3) 中国的竞争。我们认为，不可能同时面对这三个挑战，而股票还能持续超越市场表现。 我们还探讨了中国 CXMT 对 DRAM 行业的影响。 中国 DRAM 产能超过全球产能的 11%。CXMT（长鑫存储技术；未覆盖）已迅速增加其 DRAM 产能，从 2022 年每月 57,000 片晶圆增加到 2024 年第四季度的 210,000 片，并预计到 2025 年底将达到 300,000 片，占全球产能的 15%。按照这个速度，到 2026 年，C ...

Industry Overview 1. **Global Smartphone Market Segmentation**: The global smartphone market is segmented into three price bands: Premium (>US$600), mid-end (US$200-600), and entry level (<US$200). [20] 2. **Market Growth Projections**: The global smartphone market is expected to grow at a modest pace, with a volume growth of +3% YoY to 1.26bn units in 2025E. Market value is projected to grow at a faster rate of 5% YoY to US$573bn in 2025E. [6][8] 3. **Premium Segment Growth**: The premium segment is expected to grow at a 7% CAGR to 418m units in 2024-27E, accounting for 32% of total volume in 2027E. This segment is driven by strong consumer purchasing power and continuous technology upgrades. [21] 4. **Mid-End Segment Decline**: The mid-end segment is expected to decline by 4% CAGR to 306m units from 2024-27E, down to 23% of the total shipment by 2027E. This decline is attributed to the lack of revolutionary technology upgrades and conservative consumer behavior. [24] 5. **Entry Level Segment Stability**: The entry level segment is expected to remain stable, with a volume growth of 3% CAGR to 581m units in 2024-27E, contributing 45% of the total market. [25] 6. **Foldable Phone Penetration**: Foldable phones are expected to become more mainstream, with a penetration rate of 3.1%/ 3.7% / 4.5% in 2025-27E. This growth is driven by price reductions, software improvements, and innovative designs. [12] Company Analysis 1. **Apple**: Apple is expected to maintain its leading position in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] 2. **Samsung**: Samsung is also expected to grow in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] 3. **Xiaomi**: Xiaomi is expected to grow in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] 4. **Lenovo**: Lenovo is expected to grow in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] 5. **ZTE**: ZTE is expected to grow in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] 6. **Sony**: Sony is expected to grow in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] 7. **HTC**: HTC is expected to grow in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] 8. **Asus**: Asus is expected to grow in the premium segment, with a shipment growth of +5% / +3% / +2% YoY in 2024E / 25E / 26E. [35] Supply Chain Analysis 1. **Semiconductors**: The semiconductor industry is expected to grow, driven by demand for smartphones, PCs, servers, and other consumer electronics. [37] 2. **Components and Brands**: Companies like MediaTek, TSMC, and SMIC are expected to grow due to increased demand for smartphones and other consumer electronics. [37] 3. **EMS and Surveillance**: Companies like Hon Hai and Pegatron are expected to grow due to increased demand for smartphones and other consumer electronics. [37] 4. **Telecom and Communication**: Companies like ZTE and Huawei are expected to grow due to increased demand for smartphones and other telecommunications equipment. [37]

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At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Greetings and welcome to the AMD third quarter 2024 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. And as a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to You may begin. Thank you and welcome to AMD's third quarter 2024 financial results con ...