分享 reface 前⾔ at if our AI bullishness continues to be right...and what if that's actually bearish? 果我们的对 AI 的乐观持续正确……而这反而成了利空，会怎样？ at follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn't bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. e sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that's been relatively underexplored. Our nd Alap Shah posed the question, and together we brainstormed the answer. We wrote this t, and he's written two others you can find here. 下情景为设想，而非预测。这并非唱空轰动或人工智能末日主义同人文。本文唯一 的，是对一个相对较少被探讨的情景进行建模。我 ...

SNDK 周二有活动，是否可能与 HBF 有关？ 我们一直在深入研究高带宽闪存（HBF），它支持我们看好 SNDK 的主要原因之一：既有数据中心支出的长期 / 周期性顺风，也有来自 Engram、NVDA 的 Bluefield 和 HBF 的结构性顺风。 是的，我们认识到铠侠在数据中心与企业市场的暴露度远高于 SNDK；是的，我们知道中国的供应可能即将上 线；是的，我们同意 Ga SNDK 周二有活动，是否可能与 HBF 有关？ 我们一直在深入研究高带宽闪存（HBF），它支持我们看好 SNDK 的主要原因之一：既有数据中心支出的长期 / 周期性顺风，也有来自 Engram、NVDA 的 Bluefield 和 HBF 的结构性顺风。 我们很喜欢金教授被誉为 "HBM 之父"关于 HBF 的这份演示文稿源头信息加微WUXL7713，它是由一位 TMTB 读 者分享给我们的，我们建议您将这份演示文稿导入您常用的 LLM，并向它提问。 简单来说，HBF 是一种新的内存层级，它将 NAND 闪存物理上靠近 GPU，类似于 HBM 将 DRAM 靠近 GPU 的 方式。 金教授使用的比喻是：如果 HBM 是 "GPU ...

Core Insights - IREN exceeded bottom-line estimates for Q2'26 but missed revenue expectations, resulting in a sell-off of shares that have not yet recovered [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - IREN performed well in executing its growth plans despite the revenue miss [1]

Core Viewpoint - The PIMCO Active Bond ETF (BOND) is an actively managed fixed income fund that aims to provide diversified bond exposure with a strong annualized yield of 5.09% and a one-year total return of 8.65% [1][7]. Fund Overview - The fund has $6.85 billion in assets under management (AUM) and reported a dividend yield of 5.09% as of January 23, 2026 [4][6]. - As of January 22, 2026, the share price was $93.46, reflecting an 8.6% increase over the past year, although it underperformed the S&P 500 by 4.94 percentage points [3][4]. Investment Activity - Bouvel Investment Partners purchased an additional 85,742 shares of BOND during Q4 2025, increasing its total holdings to 237,842 shares, which now represent 6.38% of its reportable U.S. equity AUM [2][10]. - The estimated transaction value for this purchase was $8.02 million, contributing to a quarter-end position value increase of $7.94 million [2]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on diversified exposure to fixed income instruments, primarily investment-grade bonds, with up to 30% allocation to high-yield securities [9]. - The portfolio includes a mix of U.S. Treasuries, agency, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities, with the flexibility to use derivatives for risk management and yield enhancement [9]. Competitive Advantages - BOND's active management allows for adjustments in response to changing interest rates, providing a competitive edge in navigating various market conditions [11]. - The fund offers monthly dividend payments, making it an attractive option for investors seeking fixed income [12].

以下文章来源于capitalwatch ，作者宏观分析师 capitalwatch . 我们是一个聚焦全球资本市场的高影响力财经账号。 内容由华尔街交易员与研究员共同撰写，提供市场深度解读、机构级逻辑与实时判断。 这里没有喊 单，没有套路，只有用数据和常识说话的分析。 我们希望把复杂的金融世界，讲给真正关心自己资产的人听。 今天发生了什么？ 来源 | capitalwatch 美国核心 CPI 通胀率意外降至 2.6%，创 2021 年 3 月以来最低水平。 三个月前，通胀率升至六个月高点，而上个月，10 月份的 CPI 通胀报告被"取消"。 发生了什么变化？让我们来解释一下。 而此时，核心通胀率原本预计将上升。 这也发生在一个有趣的时刻。 | USD | ★★☆ | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1,897K | 1.930K | 1.830K | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | USD | 青青 文 | Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | | E USD | ★ ☆ ☆ | Cor ...

Core Insights - The stock of CVNA last traded at $313.25 per share, indicating a recent price movement and market interest [1] - The stock found support at $285.02, which is identified as a double-bottom support level dating back to June 2025, suggesting potential stability in the stock price [1] Price Movement - CVNA's last trading price was $313.25, reflecting current market valuation [1] - The identified support level at $285.02 indicates a significant price point that may influence future trading behavior [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent developments in the investment banking sector, highlighting key trends and shifts in market dynamics [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Investment banks are experiencing increased competition due to the rise of fintech companies, which are offering innovative financial solutions [1]. - There is a noticeable shift towards digital transformation within traditional investment banks, as they seek to enhance operational efficiency and customer engagement [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Recent financial reports indicate that major investment banks have seen a revenue increase of approximately 15% year-over-year, driven by strong trading volumes and advisory fees [1]. - Cost management remains a critical focus, with firms aiming to reduce operational expenses by 10% over the next fiscal year [1]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape is evolving, with new compliance requirements being introduced that could impact profitability and operational strategies for investment banks [1]. - Investment banks are investing in compliance technology to better navigate the changing regulatory environment and mitigate risks associated with non-compliance [1].

Summary of SEMICON West Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductor Capital Equipment - **Event**: SEMICON West Conference held in Arizona from October 7-9, 2025 - **General Sentiment**: The conference highlighted excitement about competition driving industry growth in Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) and testing, but also a cautious outlook for December quarter earnings [1][2] Key Takeaways 1. **Memory Pricing vs Capex**: - Increased bullishness on memory WFE due to better pricing and stronger bit demand - Industry participants expressed skepticism about overly positive memory WFE outlook - Micron's FY26 capex guidance and Kioxia's Kitakami Fab2 operation start were cited as validations [2][2][2] 2. **Market Share Dynamics**: - Each company presented its own market share gain narrative, with notable mentions including TEL, SCREEN, AMAT, and Veeco/Axcelis - Anticipation of competition driving the industry forward [2][2] 3. **China Market Dynamics**: - New Chinese customers were significant for WFE in 2023-2024, but orders have slowed, particularly in mature logic - Leading-edge Chinese customers still show strength, with fierce competition noted in trailing-edge segments [2][2] 4. **Test Intensity**: - Teradyne and Advantest are competing for memory market share, with increased test insertions driven by a focus on yield and time to market - Expansion beyond mobile testing into new areas like HBM testing [2][2] 5. **Broader Growth Drivers**: - MKS and AEIS highlighted growth in segments outside semiconductors, particularly in PCB chemistry and data centers, benefiting from AI-related demand [2][2] Company-Specific Insights - **AEIS**: - Moderated WFE outlook due to softer trailing-edge logic demand but expects strong DRAM WFE market growth [6][6] - **Advantest**: - Focused on expanding offerings across the test value chain, leveraging AI for optimization [7][7] - **AMAT**: - Addressed concerns regarding China and GAA market share, emphasizing a timing issue for the $500 million miss in guidance [8][8] - **AMKR**: - Ground-breaking announcement for a new facility in Arizona with a $7 billion investment, aligned with TSMC [9][9] - **Lasertec**: - Noted growth in memory customers and increased inquiries from Chinese customers amid tighter restrictions [11][11] - **MKS**: - No indications of a significant ramp in memory demand, but optimistic about tool demand continuing to drive growth [12][12] - **SCREEN**: - Observed increasing cleaning intensity and cautious optimism for medium-term growth [13][13] - **Teradyne**: - Highlighted the importance of test coverage and announced new products to meet growing networking demands [14][15] - **Tokyo Electron (TEL)**: - Cautioned against over-optimism regarding memory prices and emphasized a focus on leading-edge customers [16][16] - **Veeco**: - Discussed the strategic merger with Axcelis to tackle AI-driven market demands [17][17] Additional Insights - **General Market Sentiment**: The conference underscored a cautious optimism regarding the semiconductor market, with varying dynamics in different segments and regions, particularly concerning China [2][2][2]

Core Viewpoint - The focus is on creating a portfolio that emphasizes growth and dividend income, aiming for an easy retirement through compounding dividend income and growth [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is centered around generating monthly dividend income that increases through reinvestment and annual raises [1]. Group 2: Personal Position - The individual has a beneficial long position in the shares of NVDY and NVDA, indicating confidence in these stocks [1].

Core Insights - Micron Technology is experiencing growth due to increasing demand for artificial intelligence and strict supply discipline in the memory industry [1][3] - BofA Securities raised the price target for Micron to $180 from $140 while maintaining a Neutral rating, indicating that much of the stock's upside is already reflected in its price [1][2] - The company is benefiting from high bandwidth memory (HBM) sales and a resurgence in traditional server CPU sales driven by agentic AI [3] Financial Performance - Micron's gross margin is projected to be 51.5% in FQ1, which is 600 basis points above consensus estimates, indicating strong pricing power [3] - FY26 and FY27 earnings estimates have been raised significantly by 38% and 56% to $16.28 and $17.55 respectively [3] Market Dynamics - The memory industry is experiencing abnormal supply discipline, which has led to increased pricing in both traditional and new memory markets [3] - The entry of Samsung into the HBM market could potentially impact Micron's market share and pricing in CY26 [3] Competitive Landscape - The strength in AI is seen as beneficial for other companies such as NVIDIA (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO), while traditional server CPU strength is positive for AMD [3] - There is potential for increased memory capital expenditures, which could positively affect Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX) [3]