从业绩预告看AI科技与AI核心标的 20240716_1_导读 2024年07月16日 23:28 关键词 AI科技 业绩预告 天风证券 估值 产业链 通信板块 广和通 合尔泰 医疗网络 医院通信 移动通信 珠海 互联 网 去库存 补库存 业绩 通信指数 AI 出海 装修问题 全文摘要 本次电话会议由天风证券举办，重点讨论了AI科技及其相关企业的业绩预告情况。会议指 出，自1月23日起，AI板块表现强势，部分公司业绩预告显著增长，预示着AI行业整体呈现供不应求的 局面，未来业绩有望持续攀升。另外，虽然一些公司未发布业绩预告，但其实际业绩良好，反映了AI行 业的积极发展趋势。对于明年，市场对AI市场的发展持乐观态度，特别是800G和1.6T技术的应用预计将 推动业绩增长。同时，会议也提到了通信及计算机行业受到的高度关注，业绩预告和未来预期成为影响 股价的关键因素。在此基础上，建议投资者关注国产算力、大安全和大信创领域的企业，以及在海外表 现强劲的出海企业。此外，电子领域和半导体行业的相关公司也因与AI技术的紧密关联而备受瞩目。综 上所述，AI科技及其应用领域展现出强劲的增长势头和良好的发展前景，值得投资者持续关 ...

然后其实苹果的AI服务器从今年刚刚开始做的它是之前一直都用的是相应的公有利用来作为它的整个服务器载体从今年开始做AI服务器那么整个它今年的从24年到27年然后整个这 三年的AI服务器整个的预期总量预计是在将近7万到8万台那么今年的今年我们看到苹果的AI服务器的这个量是在将近2万台那么这2万台里面它是分为主要还是以英伟达这个板卡为基础就是分为训练服务器和推理服务器那么推理服务器 那么它主要是用的英伟达的这个L40的推理卡就一台服务器里面会有4个L40来作为它的整个推理服务器那么训练服务器就是用的是英伟达的H100就一台服务器里面是配8张英伟达的H100的GPU卡来作为它的训练服务器所以说今年整个训练服务器两台里面大概有1万2千台是推理服务器 然后还有8000台是训练服务器所以这就构成了整个今年的2万台的苹果的AI服务器那么整个今年AI服务器里面它主要的跟它的合作伙伴很重要是一共跟那个鸿海富士康合作为主 就是由富士康来替苹果来代工它的整个AI服务器那么这个是今年的情况那么当然目前苹果也在规划它自己的自研的芯片的AI服务器那么它自研的AI服务器的芯片主要还是以这个推理卡为主那么目前来看到 他从明年开始会在他整个这个 ...

所以他出海这块的话几乎就是基本上业务对外输出所以这点的话就是说从出海本身来讲的话就是一个降维去做业务增加一块这种收入项所以这是他出海这块出海这块的话很正常或者说没什么额外的这样的一些特质 AITC这边的话它就类似于任天宇先生跟阿曼尼基完全是我是其中一个玩家所以它有很多的这样的一个C端的产品包括软件包括硬件然后AIAgent这边的话其实也是跟这个PC智能手机处理硬件有点像是别人的双方的一个服务商或者是说给别人去提供一些这种 生态合作伙伴的这样的一个支持所以总结一下的话就是双方这边第一在出牌这块是一个降维把原有的基本盘与我玩输出然后是PC智能手机处理硬件跟AI Agent这个地方的话是别人的三方合作伙伴在人行机器人安卖引进跟AIC2C的这种产品这块的话或者是2B的产品这块的话希望成为玩家之一这是双方的一个特质 这次办事这边的话因为它上市稍微晚一些上市之后的话也在调整一些架构所以暂时看出来的东西不是特别多但是这次办事它有一个诀窍或者说它有一个特质它的AI更多的是在决策层决策层这个是个什么意思呢比如说像特斯拉不管是在做什么 本质来讲的话它在大模型化的话基本上考虑两个方向第一个是这个感知端第二个是决策端所以特斯拉在这么 ...

各位投资人大家下午好我是平安针圈TMT徐浮强今天呢有我为大家带来系列深度报告第一篇 光文化IGC紧续持续800G以上速率产品需求旺盛那今天的我的报告的包括三个部分 第一个呢讲一下我们这个行业的策划以及我们光幕化的基本情况第二部分呢讲一下这个行业的市场最后呢讲一下行业的技术趋势还有PoCpu和归光啊这个领域 那首先呢我们讲一下行业的基本情况首先呢是受于我们AIGC这个行业的催化数据交换和传输需求大幅增加高速光幕化得到广泛的应用那AIGC带来了我们整个数据中心的这样一个结构的这样一个变革数据中心的单口数量尤其是我们行业的这样一个服务器的这样一个数量还有呢就是东西向的数据流量或者规模大幅的增加 导致我们会计层和核心层的压力巨大扩容投入紧速上升这里面的扩容包括交换机400G和800G的产品都是投入的这样一个重点那光模块是起到我们整个行业就是光纹电信号的收发和转换的作用实现了就是各种类型的设备包括我们交换机路由器服务器存储设备的这一块的串联电源产品包括 光发射器光接收器这样的一些小的模组和组件光模块的基本原理其实是从发射信号开始电信号开始经过我们内部的驱动芯片调制之后转换成光信号经过光线传输再通过接口经过探测器把光信号 ...

就是传媒行业这也是文化行业的第二期那今天的这个会议的内容的安排呢是先我简单介绍一下我们策略这边的一些观点啊包括对科技对传媒的一些观点其次呢有请我们呃研究所的策略呃那个传媒首席分析师啊给大家讲一下传媒的观点那最后呢就是我们呃就市场和投资者关心的一些问题和传媒首席进行交流那 那这个呢就有今天会议的整体的一个安排那下面呢我花几分钟的时间给大家简单介绍一下我们策略这边的市场的观点还有对科技和传媒行业的一些看法那首先关于整体的这个市场近期市场这个情绪稍微有些修复但是总体上还是偏弱的投资还是比较担心的尤其是三中全会开完之后整个市场会不会出现很明显的这个大幅的调整那我们对待这种可能性是比较小的 那主要几个方面的原因第一个呢就是从一些指标的角度来看目前的A股其实已经相对基本面来讲已经相对比较便宜了或者说已经反映了基本面的这个悲观的预期这个呢我们之前做过几个角度了一个呢就是从这个估值的调整跟基本面的匹配程度那基本面呢主要就是一些低低的这个指标 我们会发现就是从5月20号双重中指调整以来估值或者股价其实已经调整了9%左右但是经济的这个指标事实上是没有出现很明显的回落的那更多的股价的这个调整更多的是原意 投资者对于经济的未来预期的 ...

不良后果及法律责任由私自复制刊登传播和引用者承担平安证券相对复制刊登传播和引用者暂停白名单呈现甚至可暂停所在机构白名单呈现直至相关不良影响消除 感谢主持人我们今天这个报告的介绍正式开始这个报告是我们AI系列深度报告的第一篇我们也是在今年AI的大年虽然大模型在应用端的落地目前还在观察但是算力这一端 强跑的是非常明显从二季度各家的预报来看我们算力不管是从底层还是到服务器这一端其实都提升了很快那刮目画是我们这个行业里面一直起来炒作也是持续性比较长今年我们也是在我们AI的报告里面做一个 把它作为开篇然后进行介绍那我们后续的第二篇报告就是我们的存储的这一块也希望各位领导和投资人后面持续关注我们这一块也是持续在做那我们的第一篇就是题目就是主要关注在800G加的这一块产品的需求的变化 那我的报告主要是分三个部分第一部分就是简单介绍一下我们IGC的背景下就是我们疏通广播框的基本情况包括技术演进 还有我们一些基础的尝试 就是大概快速过一下然后第二部分呢就是讲一下我们这个行业的这样的一个格局包括我们的疏通的还有我们电信的这一端的这样的变化以及当前的整个市场的这一块发生的变化以及后面的这样的一个趋势那最后一块呢我们讲几个方面主要是 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - No specific financial data or key metrics changes mentioned in the content [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Apple's innovation cycle for smartphone hardware has slowed due to the maturity of the technology, with limited room for further optimization [1] - AI integration in 2025 is expected to drive new application scenarios for Apple's hardware, leveraging its strong hardware foundation and high-end user base [2][3] - Upcoming innovations in 2025 will focus on AI-related hardware upgrades, including memory, chips, interaction methods, optical capabilities, and cooling systems [4] - AI-driven innovations may rekindle consumer interest in upgrading devices, potentially shortening the replacement cycle [5] - Apple is balancing cost and functionality by prioritizing essential AI-related upgrades while potentially reducing specifications in other areas to maintain cost stability [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The AI terminal wave is expected to drive a two-year upward cycle for Apple's supply chain, with 2025 being a significant year for iPhone innovation and 2026 for wearable devices [10] - The device industry's performance has lagged behind downstream companies due to the timing of order placements and the impact of innovation cycles [11][12][13][14] - The true elasticity of the device industry is expected to become apparent in Q4 when Apple's forecast orders are confirmed [15] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - Apple is positioned to lead in the AI era due to its strong hardware capabilities and high-end user base, potentially widening the gap with Android devices [4] - The company is focusing on AI-driven innovations to maintain its market leadership and stimulate consumer demand [7] - Apple's supply chain is expected to benefit from the AI terminal wave, with significant innovations anticipated in both smartphones and wearables [10] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the challenges of limited innovation space in smartphone technology, which has slowed the traditional 23-year innovation cycle [1] - The integration of AI is seen as a key driver for future growth, with 2025 expected to be a pivotal year for Apple's innovation and market position [2][4][7] - The company is cautiously balancing the cost of AI-related upgrades with the need to maintain consumer affordability [6][7] Other Important Information - The device industry's elasticity is influenced by both production volume fluctuations and structural changes in product design, with the latter having a more significant impact [12] - Companies like Tianzhun Technology, Oat Technology, and Anda Intelligent are identified as potential high-elasticity stocks due to their alignment with Apple's innovation cycle and second growth curves [21][22][23][24] Summary of Q&A Session Question: Why did Apple's supply chain devices not follow the 23-year innovation cycle in 2022 and 2023? - The innovation cycle slowed due to the maturity of smartphone technology, with limited room for further optimization [1] Question: Why is 2025 considered an optimistic year? - 2025 is expected to be a significant year due to the integration of AI terminals, which will open new application scenarios for Apple's hardware [2] Question: Why is the smartphone an ideal platform for AI? - Smartphones are ideal for AI due to their powerful chips and extensive user base, making them a natural fit for AI applications [3] Question: What AI-related innovations can we expect in Apple devices next year? - Innovations will focus on memory upgrades, chip updates, interaction methods, optical capabilities, and cooling system improvements [4] Question: How might AI impact consumer replacement cycles? - AI-driven innovations may encourage consumers to upgrade their devices, potentially shortening the replacement cycle [5] Question: How is Apple balancing cost and functionality in its AI upgrades? - Apple is prioritizing essential AI-related upgrades while potentially reducing specifications in other areas to maintain cost stability [6][7] Question: How will Apple's innovation trends in 2025 impact the market? - Apple's AI-driven innovations in 2025 are expected to solidify its leadership in the AI space and stimulate consumer demand [7] Question: How significant is the innovation cycle's impact on device demand? - The innovation cycle has a decisive impact on device demand, with significant innovations potentially requiring complete device replacements [8] Question: Why has device demand appeared to decline in recent years? - Device demand has declined due to the limited innovation space in mature technologies, but AI is expected to reignite demand [9] Question: What is the future outlook for Apple's supply chain in the AI terminal wave? - Apple's supply chain is expected to experience a two-year upward cycle, with significant innovations in 2025 and 2026 [10] Question: Why has the device industry underperformed compared to downstream companies? - The device industry's underperformance is due to the timing of order placements and the impact of innovation cycles [11][12][13][14] Question: When will the true elasticity of the device industry become apparent? - The true elasticity of the device industry will become apparent in Q4 when Apple's forecast orders are confirmed [15] Question: How should investors evaluate stocks when elasticity is difficult to quantify? - Investors should focus on the certainty of a company's position in the supply chain, with downstream producers often being more stable [16] Question: Why is the elasticity of equipment manufacturers difficult to calculate? - The elasticity of equipment manufacturers is difficult to calculate due to the complex interplay of market demand, technological innovation, and capacity utilization [17] Question: Why do equipment manufacturers have a better second growth curve? - Equipment manufacturers can leverage their existing technology to enter new fields, creating a second growth curve [18] Question: How does the second growth curve affect the valuation of equipment manufacturers? - The second growth curve can enhance the valuation of equipment manufacturers by opening new revenue streams and improving market position [19] Question: How should investors select equipment manufacturers for investment at this stage? - Investors should consider companies with strong fundamentals, reasonable valuations, and upcoming mid-term reports, such as Bozhon Precision and Quicktron [20] Question: Which companies might become high-elasticity stocks if the 2025 innovation cycle holds? - Companies like Tianzhun Technology, Oat Technology, and Anda Intelligent are potential high-elasticity stocks due to their alignment with Apple's innovation cycle [21][22][23][24] Question: Why is Tianzhun Technology considered a high-elasticity stock? - Tianzhun Technology is considered a high-elasticity stock due to its involvement in key areas of Apple's innovation cycle and its second growth curve in autonomous driving and semiconductor testing [22] Question: What is the high-elasticity logic for Oat Technology? - Oat Technology benefits from increased demand for FPCA testing equipment due to design upgrades and higher usage in the innovation cycle [23] Question: Why is Anda Intelligent included in the high-elasticity stocks? - Anda Intelligent is included due to its strong cash position, low short-term debt, and potential for recovery in its main business and new ventures [24]

行业研究 天府的天命: 功夫熊猫跻身世界级航空枢纽之战 Tianfu's Destiny: Kung Fu Panda Joins the Battle to Become a World-Class Aviation Hub 前言 2024年3月埃尔坡AIRPO应天府国际机场的邀请,我们与机场管理团队 进行了一次面对面交流。通过这次活动,我们得以较为全面地了解这座 新兴超级航空枢纽的真实运行状况,并且作为旅客切身体验了机场出行 服务的方方面面。在出行流程、航站楼空间、航司休息室、多航站楼之间 的衔接、空港酒店、机场工作区、多种交通方式的集疏运、空港区整体规 划,以及两场之间的交通等许多方面,这个超级工程都给我们留下了极 为深刻的印象,可谓是惊喜连连。 尤其是巴蜀风格浓郁又便捷舒适的云享和悦享两个酒店体验极佳,算得 上是机场酒店的天花板,在全球范围也可以排在TOP5之列。对在天府 中转过夜的旅客来说,实在是旅行途中一个闲适的休憩之所,也是沉浸 式体验独特空港生活方式的上佳之选。 天府的精致和丰富是多样立体的,代表了中国机场最新成就的集大成之 作,为我们研究中国机场提供了一个新范本。通过对天府机场的缘起愿 景、 ...