更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 November 3, 2024 09:00 PM GMT M Update Greater China IT Services and Software | Asia Pacific Chart of the Day: Sector Growth vs. Nominal GDP Growth Key Takeaways 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 3Q24 revenue growth for A-share software & IT services names under our coverage (excl. iSoftStone due to M&A) deteriorated further to -6.3% YoY on average. Nominal GDP growth was stable at 4% YoY in 3Q24. Sector growth underperformed nominal GDP growth. 更多一手调研纪要和 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 4 November 2024 | 12:08AM HKT | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 4 November 2024 | 9:13AM HKT 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 China Software: Sep revenue growth slowed to 8.2% YoY; 3Q24 results remained soft 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------- ...

Flash | 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 03 Nov 2024 22:12:01 ET │ 11 pages China Yangtze Power (600900.SS) Maintain Neutral on Hydropower Utilization Cut Risk in 2025E and Excessive Valuations CITI'S TAKE While China Yangtze Power's ('CYP') 9M24 net profit (+30.2% yoy to Rmb28,025m) was better than expected mainly driven by utilization rise (+16.0% yoy to 3,285 hours) of its hydropower plants, we reiterate our cautious view and our market only Neutral rating as (i) the high hydropo ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **European Metals, Mining & Steel** industry, particularly analyzing trends in **China's metal inventories** including steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, and zinc [2][4]. Key Insights Steel Production and Inventory - **Steel Output**: Recent data indicates a **1% increase** in steel production over a 10-day period ending October 25, but a **2% week-over-week decline** was noted in the week ending November 1, marking the first decline since stimulus hopes were raised in September [2][8]. - **Steel Prices and Margins**: Steel prices remained flat, but steel mill margins improved to their highest levels in approximately **two years**, although they are still negative or close to breakeven [2][14]. - **Inventory Levels**: Total steel inventory in China decreased by **1.9% week-over-week** to **12.35 million tons**, which is a **13.2% decline year-over-year** [7][16]. Iron Ore Trends - **Iron Ore Shipments**: Iron ore shipments to China increased by **2.9% week-over-week** to **25.44 million tons**, but year-over-year shipments are down **8.6%** [7][19]. - **Port Inventories**: Iron ore port inventories rose by **2 million tons** to **149 million tons**, which is above the normal seasonal average [18][19]. Copper Market Dynamics - **Copper Inventory**: There has been a significant slowdown in copper de-stocking, with inventories falling by **15,000 tons** in the last two weeks, indicating weaker downstream demand [4][25]. - **Copper Premiums**: The copper premium fell by **10%** last week to **$48 per ton**, which is a **30% decrease** since October 10, reflecting increased consumer sensitivity to high prices [4][25]. Aluminum and Zinc Insights - **Aluminum Inventory**: Aluminum inventories are at their lowest levels for this time of year compared to the previous five years, indicating strong de-stocking trends [11][26]. - **Zinc Inventory**: Zinc inventories are in line with historical averages after a rapid de-stocking phase [30][32]. Additional Observations - **Construction Activity**: A slowdown in construction activity is expected in November and December, which may further constrain steel production as China's peak season for downstream steel consumption ends [2][8]. - **Environmental Factors**: Heavy air pollution occurrences in steel-producing regions may also impact production levels [2][8]. Conclusion - The current trends in China's metal inventories suggest a complex interplay of production, demand, and environmental factors that could influence future market dynamics. The steel and copper markets are particularly sensitive to changes in consumer demand and construction activity, while aluminum and zinc inventories indicate a tighter supply situation.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 4 November 2024 | 10:41PM HKT 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------|------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|------------------------------|------------| | | | | | | | | | Sany Heavy (600031.SS) Virtual China Corporate ...

a E s s e n t i a l s | 31 Oct 2024 05:01:42 ET │ 65 pages China Machinery Forklifted by Electrification, Overseas Forays: Initiate Hangcha at Buy, Heli at Neutral CITI'S TAKE We initiate Anhui Heli at Neutral (TP Rmb19.00) and Hangcha Group at Buy (TP Rmb22.40), respectively China's #1 and #2 forklift companies. Both stocks performed well from Oct'23, led by lower steel prices and robust exports, until May '24, when they reversed course amid China macro and export growth concerns - stemming from higher shi ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China Internet and Singles Day Performance Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Internet** industry, specifically the **2024 Singles Day** festival and its preliminary performance metrics. Key Companies Discussed - **Alibaba (BABA)** - **JD.com (JD)** - **Pinduoduo (PDD)** - **Vipshop (VIPS)** - **Douyin** - **Kuaishou** Core Insights and Arguments Singles Day Performance Metrics - The 2024 Singles Day festival marks its 16th anniversary, with a muted response from consumers and investors due to earlier promotional activities compared to previous years [1] - E-commerce platforms are offering various subsidies and red packets to attract consumers, but spending behavior remains cautious [1] - Home appliances are highlighted as a winning category, benefiting from government stimulus policies [1] Alibaba (BABA) - Forecast for BABA's GMV during the Singles Day period is projected to grow by **3-6% year-on-year** to **Rmb 565-581 billion** [2][27] - In 2023, Taobao/Tmall's GMV, orders, and participating merchants all grew year-on-year, with over **800 million** visiting users and **32 million** 88VIP members [2][26] - The 88VIP membership program is emphasized, with exclusive benefits and a significant increase in high-value coupons [14] JD.com (JD) - JD's forecast for Singles Day GMV is expected to reach **Rmb 400-412 billion**, representing **4-7% year-on-year growth** [3][48] - JD reported a record-breaking Singles Day in 2023, with significant increases in transaction volume and user engagement [47] - The company is implementing various promotional strategies, including **Rmb 50 discounts** on orders over **Rmb 300** and a **Rmb 10 billion subsidy program** [29][32] Pinduoduo (PDD) - PDD's promotional activities include a **Rmb 10 billion consumer voucher** initiative, which has attracted a significant number of merchants [51][52] - The platform continues to focus on price reductions and increased traffic for merchants [53] Vipshop (VIPS) - VIPS is focusing on trade-in promotions and has initiated brand promotions in various categories, including cosmetics and appliances [58][60] - The company is applying government subsidies to enhance its appliance sales [60] Douyin and Kuaishou - Douyin has extended its promotional period and introduced measures to support merchants, resulting in a **93% year-on-year increase** in GMV during the advance period [61][65] - Kuaishou's promotional strategies include a focus on trade-in programs and significant growth in live commerce, with a **670% increase** in GMV from trade-in programs [78] Additional Important Insights - The first half of the Singles Day sales (Oct 14-30) totaled **Rmb 845 billion**, with home appliances, smartphones, and apparel being the top categories [5][8] - Government subsidies have significantly impacted home appliance sales, with **Rmb 91.3 billion** in sales recorded by October 24 [9] - The promotional strategies across platforms are increasingly competitive, with a focus on consumer engagement and discounts [1][13][29] Conclusion - The 2024 Singles Day festival reflects a cautious consumer sentiment despite significant promotional efforts from major e-commerce platforms. The focus on home appliances and government subsidies indicates a strategic response to current market conditions. The performance metrics and forecasts for key players like Alibaba and JD.com suggest a competitive landscape as they navigate consumer behavior and economic factors.

2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | China Merchants Prop Operation (001914.SZ) 3Q in line; scale growth solid and OCF improved but GPM deteriorated; Neutral | CMPO's 3Q topline/NI increased by 11%/5% yoy (a similar growth trend as in 1H), and 9M came at +12%/+4% yoy (broadly inline with GSe and slightly below the Wind consensus). GPM notably deteriorated i ...

QUICK TAKE 31 October 2024 Japan Semiconductors Screen Holdings Co Ltd Rating Market-Perform Price Target 7735.JP 9,700.00 JPY David Dai, CFA +852 2918 5704 david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Juho Hwang +852 2123 2632 juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Xuan Ji +852 2918 5342 xuan.ji@bernsteinsg.com Screen 2Q25/3: Raising near term China outlook Screen 2Q results were inline. 2Q FY25/3 revenue came in at ¥143.2bn, up 23% yoy, below consensus by 2%. Gross margin and operating margins are better than consensus, at 38% and 21.3 ...