Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: US-China Trade Relations - **Company**: Barclays Bank, Hong Kong Core Points and Arguments 1. **US-China Trade Deal Dynamics**: President Trump is perceived to desire a trade deal with China, but recent events, including the DeepSeek 'shock' and a "maximum pressure" strategy, have complicated negotiations [1][8][10] 2. **Tariff Impositions**: On February 4, 2025, the US imposed an additional 10% tariff on all imports from China, which was a significant escalation in trade tensions [3][10] 3. **Retaliatory Measures by China**: China responded with targeted retaliatory tariffs, including a 15% tariff on coal and LNG, and a 10% tariff on crude oil and agricultural machinery, reflecting a more measured approach compared to previous trade conflicts [12][15] 4. **Economic Impact Estimates**: The 10% tariff increase is expected to lead to a 0.4 percentage point decline in China's GDP growth over a 12-month period, with direct and indirect effects on consumption and investment [24][25] 5. **Potential Compromises from China**: China may offer compromises to ease trade tensions, such as increasing imports of US goods, allowing the sale of TikTok to a US company, and encouraging Chinese companies to establish manufacturing in the US [20][22] 6. **Future Trade Events**: Key upcoming dates include the implementation of China's tariffs on US goods on February 10, and the US tariffs on Mexico and Canada scheduled for March 4 [11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Reactions**: The initial market shock from Trump's tariff announcements indicates the sensitivity of financial markets to trade policy changes [2][10] 2. **Strategic Focus on Energy**: China's targeting of US energy imports suggests a strategic approach to minimize economic impact while maintaining leverage in negotiations [14][15] 3. **Long-term Trade Relations**: The ongoing trade tensions highlight the complexities of US-China relations, with both sides needing to navigate economic interdependencies while addressing national interests [3][12][20]

Summary of China Coal Energy Co., Ltd. Research Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Coal Energy Co., Ltd. (Ticker: 1898.HK) - **Industry**: Coal and Coal Chemicals Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Target Update**: The price target for China Coal Energy Co., Ltd. has been raised from HK$8.50 to HK$9.12, with a bull case of HK$11.37 and a bear case of HK$5.60 [1][3][8] 2. **Earnings Estimates**: Net profit estimates for 2024-2026 have been increased by 9-11% due to higher earnings contributions from coal chemicals, with EBIT forecasts for this segment revised up to Rmb3.8 billion from Rmb3 billion [2][4] 3. **Valuation Model**: The updated price target is based on a residual income model, now assuming a WACC of 9% (previously 7.4%), with an unchanged ROE of 8.0% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [3][8] 4. **Stock Rating**: The stock is rated as Equal-weight, reflecting cautious sentiment towards the industry [4][14] 5. **Current Stock Performance**: As of February 6, 2025, the stock price was HK$8.94, with a 52-week range of HK$10.76 to HK$7.22 [4][11] Financial Metrics - **EPS Estimates**: EPS for fiscal years ending in December 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at Rmb1.52, Rmb1.41, Rmb1.26, and Rmb1.10 respectively, with prior estimates adjusted upwards for 2024 and 2025 [4][24] - **Revenue and EBITDA**: For FY Dec 2024, revenue is estimated at Rmb178.86 billion, with EBITDA at Rmb40.17 billion and net income at Rmb15.51 billion [24] Market Dynamics 1. **Coal Prices**: The report indicates a tight market balance in domestic thermal coal, supporting long-term contract prices at elevated levels. However, a correction in contract sales price for domestic thermal coal is expected by 3% YoY in 2025, with spot coal prices shrinking by 12% YoY [12][13][19] 2. **Production Costs**: Unit costs are projected to fluctuate slightly, with a unit cost of Rmb353.8/ton in 2023 and Rmb355.3/ton in 2024 [19] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Potential for stronger-than-expected recovery in coal demand and higher realized domestic coal prices [25] - **Downside Risks**: Risks include a slowdown in coal price rally due to demand slowdown and deterioration of coal chemical margins due to lower oil prices [25] Ownership and Institutional Positioning - **Institutional Ownership**: The company has a high institutional ownership rate of 88.8% [23] Conclusion The research indicates a cautiously optimistic outlook for China Coal Energy Co., Ltd., with revised earnings estimates and a higher price target reflecting improved performance in coal chemicals. However, the company faces potential risks from fluctuating coal prices and market dynamics.

February 6, 2025 03:55 AM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific Weekly Database Tracker #5 Weekly primary unit sales were -42% YoY and -91% WoW. Weekly secondary unit sales were -59% YoY and -97% WoW, respectively. All YoY are based on comparison with 2024 Chinese New Year week. No new launch projects or sell-through data were monitored due to the holiday. Weekly primary unit sales in 50 cities were -42% YoY (vs. -8% YoY last week) and -91% WoW for the week ended February 2: Tier 1 city sales were -12% YoY (vs. ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, specifically the **secondary home prices** in major cities across the country [1][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Trends**: - January secondary home prices in major cities experienced a month-on-month (m-m) decline of **-0.6%** and a year-on-year (y-y) decline of **-9.8%** [2] - 64% of the tracked cities reported a m-m decrease in home prices, a slight improvement from **80%** in December [2] 2. **Listing Trends**: - New secondary listings fell significantly by **-45% m-m** and **-22% y-y** in January, with all cities reporting a decrease [3] - Total listings also saw a slight decline, with **43%** of cities recording a m-m decrease [3] 3. **Visitations**: - Visits to agent shops dropped by **43% m-m** and **16% y-y** in January, attributed to the earlier Chinese New Year [4] - However, visitations compared to February 2024 showed a **38%** increase, indicating potential support for secondary home sales due to competitive pricing [4] 4. **Market Sentiment**: - The decline in listing and transaction prices may reflect weakening resident sentiment, which could exert further downward pressure on home sales and prices in the upcoming months [5] - The sustainability of any recovery in home sales is contingent upon effective implementation of announced policies, such as inventory buyback and urban redevelopment, supported by adequate funding from the central government [5] 5. **Investment Recommendations**: - The industry view remains **In-Line**, with a focus on persistent sales recovery as crucial for sector performance [6] - Suggested stocks for selective accumulation include **CR Land (1109.HK)** and **CR Mixc (1209.HK)**, as well as defensive SOE developers like **Greentown (3900.HK)** and **Yuexiu (0123.HK)**, which may outperform due to stronger sales potential [6] Additional Important Insights - The data indicates a seasonal impact on the property market, particularly around the Chinese New Year, affecting both listings and visitations [4][3] - The overall sentiment in the property market remains cautious, with analysts urging investors to wait for more favorable entry points before making significant investments [6] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring government policy effectiveness in stabilizing the property market and improving consumer confidence [5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and outlook of the China property market, emphasizing price trends, market sentiment, and investment strategies.

Equity Research U.S. Gaming, Leisure & Lodging 6 February 2025 BYD 4Q24 Review: So You're Saying There's a Chance Solid 4Q report, as expected. Post election bump was downplayed, but likely for the sake of conservatism. Our estimates tick modestly higher. PT to $78, remain EW. BYD reported 3%/6% upside vs. us/Cons property adjusted EBITDAR. Compared to our model, outperformance was driven by Locals, Online and Managed, while MW&S was in-line with our estimate (and 2% ahead of Cons.). Looking forward, our 20 ...

Wanhua Chemical | Asia Pacific February 6, 2025 05:51 AM GMT Spreads and share price diverged but valuation fair Investors are curious for the reasons behind the weak share price performance despite recent product price hikes. We think the uncertainty in 4Q24 earnings and valuation is key, while tariff impact could be milder than it appears. Maintain EW. Price hikes across regions but share price diverged. Since the overseas price hikes by BASF and Wanhua in early Jan, Huntsman also followed and hiked MDI p ...

February 6, 2025 01:11 AM GMT | Exhibit 1: | | | Solar products – Price summary | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2/5/2025 Polysilicon (Rmb/kg) Wafer-182mm | | Wafer-210mm | Cell-182mm | Cell-210mm | Polysilicon | Wafer-182mm | (USD/pc) Cell-182mm (USD/W) | | | | | (Rmb/pc) | (Rmb/pc) | (Rmb/W) | (Rmb/W) | (USD/kg) | | | | | Weekly ave | 39.0 | 1.18 | 1.55 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 21.00 | 0.16 | 0.04 | | | WoW | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | | | ...

A fresh start for the new year Equity Research Report 6 February 2025 China Equity Strategy Equity Strategy DeepSeek a re-rating catalyst. The development of DeepSeek has attracted the attention of global markets – it reconfirmed China's continued ability to innovate, and in this note, we explore other evidence of China's underestimated innovation capability. In 2023, China accounted for an impressive quarter of global patent filings. However, the relatively low correlation between the CSI300's PE and China ...

China Insurance Revisiting market volatility during trade tensions; sector's beta appears to be higher compared to 2018 China's insurers allocate a significant portion of their AUM to A-share equities (9-18% of AUM), which is equivalent to a substantial portion of their book value (1.1x on average). As such, the sector's stock beta remains above 1 (Table 1), making China equity market volatility critical to their stock performance. In addition, the regulatory environment has been updated, with a notable 30% ...

Summary of Global Gas and Power Insights - February 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, particularly the impact of China's new tariffs on US LNG imports and the subsequent effects on global trade flows and pricing dynamics. Key Points China's Tariff on US LNG - China announced a 15% tariff on US LNG imports effective February 10, 2025, which is expected to reshape global trade flows but have limited impact on Asian JKM LNG and European TTF natural gas prices [1][7][24] - In 2024, the US supplied only 5.6% of China's total LNG imports, and in 2023, only 4.0% of US LNG exports went to China, indicating a minimal direct impact on the overall market [7][24] Historical Context - The report references the 2019 scenario where China diversified its LNG imports away from the US due to tariffs, leading to a 12% year-over-year increase in total LNG imports from other countries [2][8] - US LNG exports grew by 68% year-over-year in 2019, compensating for the loss of demand from China with increased exports to Europe and other regions [10] Price Forecasts - Price forecasts for 1Q25 and 2Q25 TTF have been raised to $15.4/MMBtu and $15.0/MMBtu, respectively, reflecting a 14% and 11% increase from previous forecasts due to higher-than-expected European gas demand [4][21] - JKM price forecasts for 1Q25 and 2Q25 have also been increased to $14.4/MMBtu and $15.0/MMBtu, with a 3% and 11% increase from prior forecasts [5][22] Market Dynamics - European gas demand has been buoyed by lower temperatures and a decline in wind and hydro power generation, which fell by 18% and 27% year-to-date, respectively [4][21] - The potential reduction of LNG exports from Indonesia could tighten the global LNG market, although the actual impact may be muted due to high LNG prices dampening domestic demand [24] Long-term Outlook - With new US LNG export terminals coming online from 2025, TTF and JKM prices are expected to enter another down cycle post-2026, similar to the price declines observed in 2019 [3][15] - The long-term implications for US Henry Hub prices are complex, with potential LNG curtailments affecting market dynamics, but a constructive outlook on long-term prices remains [20] Additional Insights - The report highlights the interplay between AI developments and energy demand, suggesting that advancements in AI could lead to increased energy consumption, particularly in natural gas [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring Indonesia's LNG export policies and their potential impact on global supply dynamics [24] Conclusion - The global LNG market is currently facing significant shifts due to geopolitical factors, changing demand patterns, and evolving supply dynamics. The anticipated tariff on US LNG imports by China is expected to have limited immediate effects on pricing, but the long-term outlook remains uncertain with new export capacities and potential market adjustments.