Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **consumer goods industry** in China, specifically discussing the **"dual upgrade" program** aimed at boosting consumption and investment in 2025 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Implementation of the "Dual Upgrade" Program**: - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other ministries announced details for the **consumer goods trade-in and equipment upgrade program** for 2025, which was effective in boosting consumption last year [2][6]. - Policymakers pledged to **increase funding support** and expand eligible goods categories in 2025, aligning with market expectations [2][6]. 2. **Funding Details**: - The **central government special bond (CGSB)** issuance quota for the program will significantly increase in 2025 compared to 2024, with an expected total government bond net issuance exceeding **RMB 12 trillion** [2][6]. - The first batch of funding for the consumer goods trade-in program this year is **RMB 81 billion**, allocated to local governments [2][6]. 3. **Eligible Products**: - The program will include additional products such as **mobile phones, computer tablets, and smart watches** for fiscal subsidies in 2025 [6]. - The home appliance category will expand from **8 to 12 sub-categories**, now including microwave ovens, dishwashers, water purifiers, and rice cookers [6]. 4. **Economic Impact and Expectations**: - The effectiveness of the consumption stimulus relies on both funding and implementation, with the fiscal budget to be released during the **March "Two Sessions"** being crucial for gauging funding strength [6]. - The expected **CGSB quota** for 2025 may include **RMB 800-1000 billion** for the consumer goods trade-in and equipment upgrade program, compared to **RMB 300 billion** in 2024 [6]. 5. **Additional Support Measures**: - Policymakers emphasized the need for more **transfer payments** to targeted groups, particularly low-income families, to improve household income and boost consumer confidence [6]. Important but Overlooked Content - Key macroeconomic data and events leading up to the national "Two Sessions" include the **Q4 GDP release on January 17, 2025**, and local "Two Sessions" in January-February [6]. - The potential impact of **US tariff implementations** and China's responses post-US presidential inauguration were also highlighted as significant factors to monitor [6].

Summary of Zijin Mining Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zijin Mining Group (Ticker: 2899.HK) - **Market Cap**: US$55.335 billion - **Current Share Price**: HK$14.62 (as of January 8, 2025) - **Price Target**: HK$22.90 - **52-Week Range**: HK$10.70 - HK$20.10 - **Average Daily Trading Value**: US$84.6 million Key Industry Insights Lithium Project - Manono - **Project Location**: DR Congo - **Core Discussion**: Investors inquired about the Manono lithium project, which is seen as pivotal for Zijin's lithium strategy - **Cost Competitiveness**: The project aims to achieve competitive operating costs within the top 50 percentile of global mines, leveraging its sizeable resources to lower costs effectively [1][4] Cost Management - **Cost Performance**: Despite global cost inflation, Zijin has managed to keep cost increases below peer levels - **Volume Growth**: Strong volume growth is contributing to better economics, and management is optimistic about improving recovery rates from mines, which is crucial for cost reduction [2] Copper Market Outlook - **2024 Expectations**: Management anticipates a surprising year for copper supply and demand, with production growth at 2% and demand growth exceeding 4%, driven by unexpected demand in China - **2025 Projections**: A slowdown in growth is expected, with production growth decelerating to 2-3% and demand growth slowing to 2% [3] Additional Considerations Risks - **Upside Risks**: Potential for stronger copper prices due to robust demand or supply disruptions in key copper-producing countries, along with volume increases from project ramp-ups [10] - **Downside Risks**: Risks include weaker copper prices from deteriorating economic data, project execution misses, and geopolitical risks that could disrupt production [10] Analyst Ratings - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Industry View**: Attractive - **Valuation Methodology**: Base case DCF model with a WACC of 7.5% and a steady-state revenue growth rate of 3% per annum [8] Conclusion Zijin Mining Group is strategically positioned in the lithium and copper markets, with a focus on cost management and growth potential. The Manono project is a key asset that could enhance its competitive edge in the lithium sector. The outlook for copper remains cautiously optimistic, with potential risks that investors should monitor closely.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Real Estate Equities** sector, particularly analyzing the impact of recent policy easing on the market dynamics and sales performance in key cities [1][2]. Core Observations 1. **Sales Performance**: - 4Q24 sales in 30 key cities increased by **69% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q)** and **12% year-on-year (y-o-y)**, marking a significant recovery [5][5]. - December 2024 sales were **133% higher** than September 2024, prior to the easing measures [5][5]. - Tier-2 cities showed the most rapid recovery, with December sales **182% above** pre-easing levels [5][5]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: - The sales volume in December 2024 reached the highest levels in **21 months**, indicating sustained demand [5][5]. - Secondary sales also peaked, reaching a **4-year high** in December 2024, suggesting robust demand and potential conversion from secondary to primary sales [5][5]. 3. **Land Sales**: - National land sales rebounded dramatically in December 2024 to **RMB737 billion**, accounting for **28%** of the total for the year [5][5]. - Major developers like COLI and CR Land were the top land purchasers in 2024, indicating aggressive land replenishment strategies [5][5]. 4. **Market Share Gains**: - COLI, CR Land, and C&D International increased their market share among the top 100 developers by **0.5 percentage points**, **0.2 percentage points**, and **0.2 percentage points**, respectively, from 9M24 to the end of 2024 [5][5]. Key Stocks and Ratings - **CR Land (1109 HK)**: - Current Price: **HKD 22.15**, Target Price: **HKD 35.60**, Rating: **Buy**, Upside: **60.7%** [3][3]. - **Yuexiu (123 HK)**: - Current Price: **HKD 4.93**, Target Price: **HKD 8.20**, Rating: **Buy**, Upside: **66.3%** [3][3]. - **Longfor (960 HK)**: - Current Price: **HKD 9.90**, Target Price: **HKD 20.50**, Rating: **Buy**, Upside: **107.1%** [3][3]. - **KE Holdings (BEKE US)**: - Current Price: **USD 17.74**, Target Price: **USD 30.40**, Rating: **Buy**, Upside: **71.4%** [3][3]. - **CR Mixc (1209 HK)**: - Current Price: **HKD 27.60**, Target Price: **HKD 44.20**, Rating: **Buy**, Upside: **60.1%** [3][3]. Additional Insights - **Supply Constraints**: Sales Gross Floor Area (GFA) in top-tier cities has consistently exceeded newly supplied GFA for **70%** of the time since 2021, indicating a supply squeeze [5][5]. - **Price Stability**: Secondary prices in tier-1 cities are stabilizing, with less tendency for price cuts, reflecting a more resilient market [5][5]. - **Developer Performance**: The report highlights the performance of various developers, with notable declines in sales for some, such as Agile, which saw a **72% y-o-y** drop in December 2024 sales [17][17]. Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include slower-than-expected recovery in property transactions, macroeconomic uncertainties, and the impact of regulatory changes on the real estate market [37][37]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the China real estate sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The document pertains to the global economic outlook and investment strategies as presented by JPMorgan Chase's Global Research Department for the year 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Resilience**: The global economy is expected to remain resilient despite slowing inflation rates and high inflation levels, which limit the scope for central bank policy easing. The baseline forecast anticipates a slowdown in global growth from 2.7% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025, with core inflation remaining close to 3% [12][41][43]. 2. **U.S. Economic Leadership**: The U.S. is projected to continue as the global growth engine, supported by a healthy labor market and robust credit fundamentals. The anticipated GDP growth for the U.S. is expected to decrease from 2.4% to 2.0% in 2025 [12][41]. 3. **Impact of U.S.-China Trade Relations**: The potential increase in tariffs on Chinese goods to 60% could significantly impact China's economic growth, reducing it from 4.8% to 3.2% [12][41]. 4. **Divergent Monetary Policies**: Central banks are expected to adopt less synchronized monetary policies, with the Federal Reserve projected to cut rates by 100 basis points to 3.75% by the end of 2025 [13][41]. 5. **Market Differentiation**: The U.S. stock market is expected to experience more pronounced differentiation due to varying earnings growth and investor positioning, with a target for the S&P 500 index set at 6,500 points for 2025 [21][41]. 6. **Commodity Outlook**: The outlook for commodities is mixed, with a bearish stance on oil and base metals due to weak supply-demand fundamentals, while a bullish outlook on gold is maintained [24][41]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Geopolitical Risks**: The document highlights that geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties could lead to increased macroeconomic volatility, impacting investment strategies [8][11]. 2. **Investor Sentiment**: There is a noted shift in investor sentiment towards equities, with a significant increase in stock allocations, reflecting a strong belief in a soft landing scenario despite potential risks [35][39]. 3. **Credit Market Outlook**: The credit market is expected to show a mixed outlook, with investment-grade bond spreads expected to widen slightly while high-yield spreads are anticipated to increase [41]. 4. **Inflation Dynamics**: The report emphasizes that inflation dynamics will vary significantly across countries, influenced by both demand and supply-side factors, which will play a crucial role in shaping future monetary policy [43][44]. 5. **Emerging Markets Caution**: A cautious approach is advised for emerging market fixed income, particularly in light of potential currency pressures and limited capacity for rate cuts among central banks [24][41]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and arguments presented in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated economic landscape and investment strategies for 2025.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 8, 2025 04:17 AM GMT China Internet | Asia Pacific 2025 Outlook: A Year of Uncertainties 20025 will likely be a year of external (tariffs, sanctions) and internal (policy, competition) uncertainties, while we expect internet companies to navigate with AI strategy, overseas expansion and capital return. Key OWs: Tencent (Top Pick), TCOM, Meituan; EWs: BABA, JD, KS, BIDU. 2025 will likely be a year of external and internal uncertainties: Externally, we see uncer ...

Summary of Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd - **Ticker**: 3692.HK - **Industry**: China Healthcare - **Market Cap**: RMB 90,484 million - **Current Share Price**: HK$16.22 - **Price Target**: HK$24.00, representing a 48% upside potential [5][5][5] Key Takeaways Sales and Financial Performance - Sales promotional activities have significantly recovered from the lows experienced in late 2023, with management maintaining a double-digit sales growth target for fiscal year 2024 (F24) [1][1][1] - A dividend payout of over 35% is projected for 2024, with potential sustainability into 2025 [1][1][1] Product and Pipeline Updates - **Ameile**: Contract extended with an approximate 8% price reduction [2][2][2] - **Loxenatide**: Experienced a higher price cut, referencing the price for semaglutide; noted for its high potency and low side effects for diabetes, but not suitable for obesity [2][2][2] - **Pipeline Highlights**: - **HS-20093 (B7H3 ADC)**: Granted two Breakthrough Therapy Designations (BTDs) for second-line osteosarcoma and relapsed/refractory small cell lung cancer (r/r SCLC); pivotal trials to start in Q4 2025 [3][3][3] - **HS-20089 (B7H4 ADC)**: Ongoing Phase 2 trials for ovarian and endometrial cancers in China; Phase 1 data expected in 2025 with pivotal trials planned for Q4 2025 [3][3][3] - **HS-10374 (TYK2)**: In Phase 3 for psoriasis [3][3][3] - **HS-20094 (GIP/GLP-1R)**: In Phase 3 for overweight, aiming for a launch in 2027 [3][3][3] - **HS-10501 (oral GLP-1R)**: Recently entered Phase 1 for overweight [3][3][3] Financial Metrics - **Fiscal Year Ending**: December 2023 - **Revenue (Rmb million)**: - 2023: 10,104 - 2024e: 12,149 - 2025e: 12,502 - 2026e: 14,782 [5][5][5] - **EPS (Rmb)**: - 2023: 0.54 - 2024e: 0.68 - 2025e: 0.58 - 2026e: 0.70 [5][5][5] - **EBITDA (Rmb million)**: - 2023: 3,101 - 2024e: 4,014 - 2025e: 3,036 - 2026e: 3,655 [5][5][5] Valuation Methodology - The price target is derived using a discounted cash flow methodology, assuming a WACC of 8.8% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [8][8][8] Risks Upside Risks - Earlier-than-expected product launches [10][10][10] - Increased pace of industry growth [10][10][10] Downside Risks - Continued industry slowdown and significant price cuts [10][10][10] - Unexpected competition in central nervous system (CNS) and oncology sectors [10][10][10] - Major pipeline failures [10][10][10] Conclusion Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd is positioned for growth with a strong sales recovery and a robust pipeline of products. The company maintains an attractive outlook with a significant upside potential in its stock price, supported by strategic product developments and a solid financial foundation. However, potential risks from market dynamics and competition should be monitored closely.

Summary of China Healthcare 2025 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Healthcare - **Report Date**: January 2025 - **Research Firm**: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited Key Points and Arguments Macroeconomic Environment - The healthcare sector in China is navigating through macroeconomic uncertainties, with a focus on achieving certainty amidst these challenges [6][58] Government Support and Policy Changes - The Basic Medical Insurance (BMI) fund is projected to remain balanced in 2024, alleviating concerns over healthcare spending [6] - Potential fiscal stimulus could enhance BMI funding and support public hospitals [8] - A Medical Insurance Law may be passed in 2025, which could define the government's role in BMI funding [8] Financial Performance and Trends - The accumulated surplus in the BMI pooling account for FY24 is expected to exceed that of FY23, indicating a positive trend in healthcare funding [8] - The growth rate of BMI pooling account income and expenditure is both at 8.9% year-on-year from January to October 2024 [8] Drug Pricing and Innovation - The average price cut from the 10th National Volume-Based Procurement (VBP) is estimated to be between 70-75%, indicating increased competition in the pharmaceutical market [15] - Innovative drugs are being added to the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) at an accelerated pace, with a negotiation success rate exceeding 90% [15] Market Dynamics - The healthcare market is seeing a shift towards commercial healthcare insurance (CHI) as a supplement to government funding, with expectations of strong policy support [8] - The demand for innovative drugs remains robust, with a projected growth of 11% year-on-year in 1H24 [70] Challenges and Risks - The healthcare sector is facing challenges from geopolitical uncertainties and the lingering effects of anti-corruption measures, which have impacted surgery numbers and overall healthcare spending [58] - The funding environment for healthcare venture capital and private equity remains under pressure, with a decline in funding observed in 2024 [59] Future Growth Potential - The healthcare sector's market capitalization in China is significantly lower compared to the EU and US, suggesting substantial room for growth [73] - The aging population and chronic disease management are expected to drive long-term healthcare demand, supported by government initiatives [72] Investment Sentiment - Foreign ownership in the China healthcare sector has declined to approximately 3.8% of the total market cap, indicating a cautious investment environment [55] - Despite the challenges, there are signs of recovery in healthcare IPOs and increased interest in listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [63] Additional Important Insights - The integration of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) into chronic disease management is being promoted by the National Health Commission (NHC) [72] - The healthcare sector's contribution to China's total stock market cap is around 5%, which is low compared to other countries, indicating potential for future growth [76] This comprehensive overview highlights the current state and future outlook of the China healthcare industry, emphasizing the interplay between government policy, market dynamics, and investment opportunities.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 7, 2025 02:31 PM GMT China Tourism Group Duty Free | Asia Pacific Risk Reward Update What's Changed China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880.HK) From To Price Target HK$60.00 HK$55.00 Base Case HK$60.00 HK$55.00 Updated Components EPS Investment Thesis Bull Base Bear Scenarios Risk Reward for China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880.HK) has been updated. Reason for change In 2024, Hainan was the major drag on China's travel retail market with offline duty- free (DF) sal ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research China Insurance Sector 2025 outlook: weathering the challenges VNB growth to moderate; P&C underwriting profit to recover Following a surprisingly strong 2024 (listed insurers' VNB: +32%, UBS-e), we expect VNB growth to moderate in 2025. For Q1, we expect jumpstart sales performance to diverge across insurers. For the rest of year, while life insurance sales would continue to benefit from the savings glut, we see multiple challenges t ...