Flash | 05 Feb 2025 07:29:32 ET │ 11 pages PDD Holdings Inc (PDD.O) Quick Thoughts On USPS' Suspension Of Inbound Parcels from China (Including Hong Kong) CITI'S TAKE USPS announced a temporary suspension of international inbound parcels from China (including Hong Kong) effective 4-Feb. We believe this is likely aimed at ensuring its systems are integrated with US CBP system on latest custom clearance procedures following the implementation of new tariffs by US on imports from China. We estimate ~30-50% of ...

February 5, 2025 03:39 PM GMT China Internet | Asia Pacific Our Thoughts on a Potential Probe into iOS Channel Fee in China Bloomberg news reported a potential probe into iOS channel fee in China. We think this could benefit Tencent and NetEase if it follows the outcome in the EU – a 13ppt reduction in channel fee and allowing third-party marketplace and in-app payments. What happened: Bloomberg reported that China is considering a probe into iOS App Store practices – 30% channel fee and barring third-party ...

5 February 2025 Equity Research Report China Consumer Equities Spring Festival: Green shoots amid moderation China Tourism – solid passenger traffic; strong inbound tourism. Inter-regional passenger trips exceeded 2.3bn during the eight-day Chinese New Year (CNY) – Spring Festival holiday (compared with 2.29bn during the seven-day CNY holiday last year) (as per Xinhua). According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the eight-day Spring Festival holiday registered 501m domestic trips (5.9% y-o-y) and RMB ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Oil & Gas Equities Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of Chinese tariffs on oil and gas imports from the US, specifically focusing on LNG and crude oil tariffs announced on February 4, 2025, which are 15% and 10% respectively [2][3]. Key Points Impact of Tariffs - The tariffs are considered mild compared to previous retaliatory tariffs from 2018-2020, which peaked at 25% on LNG and 5% on crude oil [2]. - In 2024, US LNG and crude oil imports accounted for only 5% (4 million tonnes) and 2% (10 million tonnes) of China's total imports, indicating minimal earnings impact on the oil and gas sector [2][3]. - Long-term contracts with US energy firms allow for rerouting supplies through alternative sources, further mitigating risks [2]. Company-Specific Insights - **PetroChina**: - Imported 1.2 million tonnes of LNG from the US under long-term contracts, representing about 10% of its total LNG imports. The estimated impact on 2025 earnings is near zero [3]. - **Sinopec**: - Expected to receive up to 4 million tonnes of LNG from the US if the Plaquemines LNG Facility starts operations in 2025. The worst-case scenario estimates a 3% impact on 2025 earnings due to the additional tariff [3]. - **Downstream Gas Utilities**: - Companies like ENN and China Gas are expected to face even less impact as they do not have direct long-term contracts for LNG imports from the US in 2025 [4]. Financial Projections - **PetroChina**: - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at CNY 2,898,763 million, with a net profit of CNY 169,782 million [20]. - Target price for H-shares is set at HKD 7.60, implying a 26.5% upside from the current price [19]. - **ENN Energy**: - Revenue is projected to grow from CNY 113,858 million in 2023 to CNY 139,187 million in 2026, with a target price of HKD 80.00, indicating a 56.6% upside [34]. - **Sinopec**: - Revenue is expected to decline slightly, with a target price of HKD 4.60 for H-shares, reflecting a 7.2% upside [19]. Risks and Considerations - Potential risks for PetroChina include overseas asset impairments, lower-than-expected oil and gas prices, and changes in tax/energy policies [19]. - For ENN Energy, risks include lower industrial gas demand and slower-than-expected growth in the integrated energy business [34]. - Sinopec faces risks from lower refining margins and potential LNG import losses [19]. Additional Insights - The strength and mix of volume at risk from the tariffs are viewed as minimal, suggesting that Chinese oil and gas companies should not be overly concerned [7]. - The overall market for fuel imports remains robust, with the impact of tariffs being contained [7]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and financial projections from the conference call regarding the Chinese oil and gas sector, particularly in light of the recent tariff announcements.

Summary of TCL Technology Corp (000100.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: TCL Technology Corp (000100.SZ) - **Date of Conference**: January 10, 2025 - **Industry**: Technology and Telecommunications Key Points Financial Guidance and Performance - **2024 Estimates**: TCL revised up CSOT's 2024 net profits to approximately Rmb6 billion, with revenue expected to be Rmb84 billion [2] - **2025 Guidance**: The company targets net profits of Rmb8-10 billion and revenue of Rmb100 billion, with a free cash flow (FCF) estimate of Rmb30 billion, up from Rmb25 billion in 2024 [2] - **Conservative Outlook**: The 2025 profit guidance may be conservative if average selling prices (ASP) increase by 3% year-over-year [2] - **Depreciation and Amortization (D&A)**: D&A is expected to rise by Rmb1-2 billion in 2025 but will decrease by Rmb2 billion annually starting in 2026 [2][3] Operational Insights - **Channel Inventory**: The company reports healthy channel inventory and does not anticipate brands stocking up due to potential tariff risks [3] - **Utilization Rate**: The utilization rate (UTR) is projected to increase in 2025 from 83% in 2024, driven by an increase in average TV size [4] - **Production Plans**: CSOT plans a one-week production suspension during the Chinese New Year [3] Market Trends - **Panel Supply**: The company expects mainland panel makers' market share to rise to 75% in 2025 from 70% in 2024, with a potential tightness in panel supply anticipated in 2026 [4] - **TV Shipments**: Global TV shipments are expected to increase in 2025, supported by the Chinese market [4] Risks - **Key Risks**: Risks to the target price include lower-than-expected panel prices, lower demand, and macroeconomic factors such as economic cycles and consumer demand [8] Valuation - **Target Price**: The target price is set at Rmb5.50, based on a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.7x for 2025E, aligning with the average P/B from 2022-2023 [7] - **Expected Returns**: The expected share price return is 15.3%, with a total expected return of 17.6% including a dividend yield of 2.3% [5] Additional Insights - **OLED Business**: The OLED business is expected to reduce losses by Rmb1-2 billion, contributing positively to profitability [2] - **Government Shares Repurchase**: The company plans to repurchase shares from the government for T6 and T7 (both Gen10.5) in 2024-2025 [2] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting TCL Technology Corp's financial outlook, operational strategies, market trends, and associated risks.

January 12, 2025 10:57 PM GMT China Musings | Asia Pacific Policy Undershoot Unless Social Dynamics Evolve -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jun-23 Dec-23 Jun-24 Dec-24 China Social Dynamics Indicator (Z-score) 4th year into PPI deflation - Policy: shantytown renovation Covid lockdown - Policy: abandons Covid-zero Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research For important discl ...

Summary of the China Internet 2025 Bus Tour Takeaways Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Internet** industry, highlighting key players such as **Alibaba Group**, **JD.com**, **Bilibili**, **Kuaishou**, **Trip.com**, and others [1][2]. Key Highlights from Company Meetings JD.com - **Trade-in Program**: JD.com is well-positioned to benefit from the trade-in program initiated in late 2024, leveraging its supply chain and integration capabilities. The program has increased user traffic and is expected to enhance gross margins despite some offset from reduced ad spending by brands [5][7]. - **2025 Outlook**: Management anticipates a healthier industry outlook if competition remains rational, targeting growth rates above overall retail sales growth in China [7]. Alibaba Group - **Trade-in Program**: Alibaba has caught up with the trade-in program since October 2024, benefiting from increased user traffic, particularly in appliance categories [6][7]. - **Ad Tool and Reinvestment**: The new AI ad tool (Quanzhantui) is seeing positive adoption, although ROI measurement remains a challenge for some merchants. Alibaba continues to reinvest in merchant support, user experience, and technology [9][10]. - **Ecommerce Tax Impact**: Management believes the proposed ecommerce tax will have limited impact, as many larger merchants are already compliant [10][11]. Bilibili - **Ad Revenue Growth**: Bilibili is optimistic about ad revenue growth, focusing on ROI-driven spending and gradual monetization improvements [9][10]. Kanzhun - **Recruitment Sentiment**: Kanzhun reports positive recruitment sentiment and plans to increase paid positions, with a focus on blue-collar and overseas opportunities [10][15]. - **AI Ad Tool**: The new AI ad product is progressing well, with management optimistic about its impact on the platform [10]. Trip.com - **Growth and Expansion**: Trip.com targets mid-teens growth for 2025, with a focus on margin improvements and expansion into new regions like Australia and Europe [12][13]. - **Inbound Travel**: The company sees inbound travel from Asian countries as a significant growth driver [13]. Kuaishou - **Shareholder Returns**: Kuaishou plans to increase the percentage of earnings returned to shareholders, having repurchased HK$5.5 billion in shares in 2024 [19][14]. - **Ecommerce Tax Assessment**: Kuaishou is assessing the potential impact of tax regulations but believes compliance has been largely achieved by major players [14][16]. Full Truck Alliance (YMM) - **Order Volume and Commission Outlook**: YMM expects sustained order volume growth into 2025, with plans to increase commission rates to approximately 2% by year-end [17][19]. - **User Acquisition**: The company is focusing on online and offline marketing strategies to enhance user acquisition [19]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: Investors remain positive on companies like Tencent, Trip.com, Meituan, JD, and YMM due to their solid growth momentum and shareholder returns [1][2]. - **AI and Short Content**: The rise of short content platforms and AI tools is raising concerns about potential disruptions to traditional video and search incumbents [1][2]. Conclusion The China Internet industry is poised for growth in 2025, driven by innovative programs like trade-ins, advancements in AI advertising, and strategic expansions by key players. The overall sentiment remains optimistic, with a focus on rational competition and sustainable growth strategies.

Summary of Haitian International Holdings Limited Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haitian International Holdings Limited - **Ticker**: 1882.HK - **Industry**: China Industrials - **Market Cap**: Rmb31,409 million - **Current Price**: HK$20.90 - **Price Target**: HK$25.00, representing a 20% upside Key Points Overseas Growth - **Overseas Expansion**: Management emphasized that overseas expansion is a key driver for 2025, targeting low-teens growth due to robust demand from emerging markets (EM) [1] - **Order Growth**: Overseas orders grew over 40% year-over-year (YoY) from August to December 2024, with specific regions like Thailand, Indonesia, and Latin America experiencing growth of over 50% YoY in 2024 [1] Domestic Market Performance - **Domestic Growth Expectations**: Management expects flat to low-single-digit growth in 2025 due to a high base effect, with the impact of stimulus measures remaining uncertain [2] - **Revenue Composition**: For 2024, consumer goods accounted for approximately 50% of revenue, with automotive products rising to about 20% and home appliances at 10% [1] Financial Metrics - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Expected to remain stable in 2025, in line with 2024 levels, driven by an increasing export mix and improved scale effects [2] - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenue for 2025 is Rmb17,519 million, up from Rmb16,049 million in 2024 [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected to increase from Rmb1.91 in 2024 to Rmb2.18 in 2025 [4] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Potential for higher-than-expected gross margins due to declining commodity prices, better-than-expected recovery in domestic markets, and a surge in overseas sales [9] - **Downside Risks**: Risks include sluggish domestic demand recovery, weaker-than-expected overseas sales performance, and intensified market competition [9] Valuation Methodology - **Valuation Approach**: A 10x P/E multiple is applied to the 2025 earnings estimate to derive the price target, reflecting solid new order growth from both domestic and overseas markets [7] Analyst Ratings - **Stock Rating**: Overweight, indicating expected performance to exceed the average total return of the industry [4] Additional Insights - **Tariff Impact**: The U.S. tariffs are not expected to significantly impact the company as the U.S. market contributes less than 2% of total revenue [1] - **Product Demand**: Strong demand in the 3C (computer, communication, consumer electronics) sector, although it only represents 5% of total revenue [1] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's growth strategies, financial outlook, and market dynamics.

Summary of Conference Call Notes on ASMedia Technology Inc Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Semiconductors, specifically focusing on PC Semiconductors - **Current Demand**: Demand remains lukewarm, but US tariffs may lead to inventory restocking [1][3] Key Company Insights - **Company**: ASMedia Technology Inc (5269.TW) - **Top Pick**: ASMedia is reiterated as a top pick due to its anchor customer's ongoing share gain [1][3] - **Revenue Expectations**: - Realtek expected to see a 20% quarter-over-quarter revenue increase in 1Q25 - Elan and Parade also expected to show sequential growth in 1Q25 [3] - **Potential Risks**: Sell-through may decline by 5-10% quarter-over-quarter in 1Q25, indicating possible inventory accumulation and weaker seasonality in 2Q25 [3] Market Dynamics - **Windows 10 Support**: The end of support for Windows 10 may not significantly accelerate the replacement cycle, as older PCs may still be usable with software workarounds [4] - **AI PC Development**: The rollout of Windows on ARM (WoA) AI PCs is delayed, which may hinder the replacement cycle in the first half of 2025 [5] Competitive Landscape - **CPU Market Share**: ASMedia is expected to benefit from AMD's growth, with AMD potentially becoming the largest CPU supplier in two years due to issues faced by competitors [6][10] - **New Product Development**: The PCI-E gen 4 switch is set to tape out soon, contributing to revenue in 2025 [6] Financial Projections - **Earnings Estimates**: - 2024-2026 EPS estimates for ASMedia have been increased by 2%, 7%, and 7% respectively due to better-than-expected 4Q preliminary revenue [16] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at NT$10,091 million, with net income expected to reach NT$4,927 million [42] - **Price Target**: The price target for ASMedia has been raised from NT$2,200 to NT$2,350, reflecting changes in earnings estimates [21][26] Investment Drivers - **Market Opportunities**: The total addressable market (TAM) is expected to double, with new business opportunities arising from the PCI-E gen 5 switch [11] - **AMD's Influence**: ASMedia is likely to benefit from AMD's ongoing share gain in the desktop market, with multiple growth drivers anticipated in 2025 [32] Risks and Considerations - **Potential Risks**: - Supply chain issues could impact ASMedia's earnings if AMD faces substrate supply challenges [41] - Competition from Intel adopting TSMC's technologies could pose a threat [41] Conclusion - ASMedia is positioned to capitalize on market dynamics and AMD's growth, with a positive outlook for 2025 driven by new product launches and inventory management strategies. The raised price target reflects confidence in the company's ability to navigate challenges and leverage opportunities in the semiconductor market [21][32]

Summary of Trip.com Group Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group Ltd (Ticker: TCOM.O) - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Market Cap**: US$44.224 billion - **Current Share Price**: US$64.90 (as of January 8, 2025) - **Price Target**: US$81.00, representing a 25% upside potential Key Points 1. Operational Performance - 4Q24 operations were on track, with management confident about revenue growth in the teens for 2025, supported by stable domestic hotel Average Daily Rate (ADR), outbound recovery, and market share gains [1][2][4] - Domestic hotel ADR remained flat year-over-year (YoY) in 4Q24, outperforming the industry which saw a low-single-digit decline [2] 2. Revenue Growth Drivers - Management expects stable ADR in 2025 due to slowing hotel supply growth and a continued strong leisure demand, which constitutes 70-80% of total demand [2] - Corporate travel budgets are expected to remain flat in 2025 [2] 3. Air Ticketing and Travel Consumption - Air ticketing volume grew in high single digits YoY in 4Q24, aligning with industry trends, while prices normalized YoY [3] - Despite recent air crash incidents, travel consumption on the platform remains resilient, with increased spending per user in 2024 [3] 4. Outbound Travel Recovery - Outbound travel growth in 2025 is projected to exceed pre-COVID normalized levels, with international air capacity expected to recover to 100% of 2019 levels by year-end 2025 [4] - The company's recovery rate is 120% compared to 2019, significantly outperforming the industry by 35-40 percentage points [4] 5. Market Share and Tour Offerings - Packaged tours have only recovered to 50-60% of pre-COVID levels, but the rise of self-guided tours is helping the company gain market share in both domestic and outbound travel [5] - Trip.com aims to increase revenue without compromising overall profitability, focusing on volume growth with a take rate of 7-8%, compared to global peers at 15-16% [6] 6. Shareholder Returns - Management plans to enhance total shareholder return from the current 20% of free cash flow (FCF) through a combination of buybacks and dividends [7] 7. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the next fiscal years are as follows: - 2024: Rmb 52.866 billion - 2025: Rmb 60.519 billion - 2026: Rmb 67.792 billion - Expected EPS for 2025 is Rmb 27.02, with a P/E ratio of 15.8 [8] 8. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include rising competition from domestic players like Tongcheng Travel and Meituan, macroeconomic uncertainties, and FX headwinds that could lower travel demand [13] 9. Valuation Methodology - Key assumptions include a WACC of 10.5%, terminal growth of 3%, and an FX rate of 7.6 [11] Conclusion Trip.com Group Ltd is positioned for growth in 2025, driven by stable domestic performance, a strong recovery in outbound travel, and strategic focus on increasing market share. However, the company faces competitive and macroeconomic challenges that could impact its performance.