Equity Research U.S. Gaming, Leisure & Lodging 6 February 2025 BYD 4Q24 Review: So You're Saying There's a Chance Solid 4Q report, as expected. Post election bump was downplayed, but likely for the sake of conservatism. Our estimates tick modestly higher. PT to $78, remain EW. BYD reported 3%/6% upside vs. us/Cons property adjusted EBITDAR. Compared to our model, outperformance was driven by Locals, Online and Managed, while MW&S was in-line with our estimate (and 2% ahead of Cons.). Looking forward, our 20 ...

Wanhua Chemical | Asia Pacific February 6, 2025 05:51 AM GMT Spreads and share price diverged but valuation fair Investors are curious for the reasons behind the weak share price performance despite recent product price hikes. We think the uncertainty in 4Q24 earnings and valuation is key, while tariff impact could be milder than it appears. Maintain EW. Price hikes across regions but share price diverged. Since the overseas price hikes by BASF and Wanhua in early Jan, Huntsman also followed and hiked MDI p ...

A fresh start for the new year Equity Research Report 6 February 2025 China Equity Strategy Equity Strategy DeepSeek a re-rating catalyst. The development of DeepSeek has attracted the attention of global markets – it reconfirmed China's continued ability to innovate, and in this note, we explore other evidence of China's underestimated innovation capability. In 2023, China accounted for an impressive quarter of global patent filings. However, the relatively low correlation between the CSI300's PE and China ...

February 6, 2025 01:11 AM GMT | Exhibit 1: | | | Solar products – Price summary | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2/5/2025 Polysilicon (Rmb/kg) Wafer-182mm | | Wafer-210mm | Cell-182mm | Cell-210mm | Polysilicon | Wafer-182mm | (USD/pc) Cell-182mm (USD/W) | | | | | (Rmb/pc) | (Rmb/pc) | (Rmb/W) | (Rmb/W) | (USD/kg) | | | | | Weekly ave | 39.0 | 1.18 | 1.55 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 21.00 | 0.16 | 0.04 | | | WoW | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | | | ...

China Insurance Revisiting market volatility during trade tensions; sector's beta appears to be higher compared to 2018 China's insurers allocate a significant portion of their AUM to A-share equities (9-18% of AUM), which is equivalent to a substantial portion of their book value (1.1x on average). As such, the sector's stock beta remains above 1 (Table 1), making China equity market volatility critical to their stock performance. In addition, the regulatory environment has been updated, with a notable 30% ...

Summary of Global Gas and Power Insights - February 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, particularly the impact of China's new tariffs on US LNG imports and the subsequent effects on global trade flows and pricing dynamics. Key Points China's Tariff on US LNG - China announced a 15% tariff on US LNG imports effective February 10, 2025, which is expected to reshape global trade flows but have limited impact on Asian JKM LNG and European TTF natural gas prices [1][7][24] - In 2024, the US supplied only 5.6% of China's total LNG imports, and in 2023, only 4.0% of US LNG exports went to China, indicating a minimal direct impact on the overall market [7][24] Historical Context - The report references the 2019 scenario where China diversified its LNG imports away from the US due to tariffs, leading to a 12% year-over-year increase in total LNG imports from other countries [2][8] - US LNG exports grew by 68% year-over-year in 2019, compensating for the loss of demand from China with increased exports to Europe and other regions [10] Price Forecasts - Price forecasts for 1Q25 and 2Q25 TTF have been raised to $15.4/MMBtu and $15.0/MMBtu, respectively, reflecting a 14% and 11% increase from previous forecasts due to higher-than-expected European gas demand [4][21] - JKM price forecasts for 1Q25 and 2Q25 have also been increased to $14.4/MMBtu and $15.0/MMBtu, with a 3% and 11% increase from prior forecasts [5][22] Market Dynamics - European gas demand has been buoyed by lower temperatures and a decline in wind and hydro power generation, which fell by 18% and 27% year-to-date, respectively [4][21] - The potential reduction of LNG exports from Indonesia could tighten the global LNG market, although the actual impact may be muted due to high LNG prices dampening domestic demand [24] Long-term Outlook - With new US LNG export terminals coming online from 2025, TTF and JKM prices are expected to enter another down cycle post-2026, similar to the price declines observed in 2019 [3][15] - The long-term implications for US Henry Hub prices are complex, with potential LNG curtailments affecting market dynamics, but a constructive outlook on long-term prices remains [20] Additional Insights - The report highlights the interplay between AI developments and energy demand, suggesting that advancements in AI could lead to increased energy consumption, particularly in natural gas [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring Indonesia's LNG export policies and their potential impact on global supply dynamics [24] Conclusion - The global LNG market is currently facing significant shifts due to geopolitical factors, changing demand patterns, and evolving supply dynamics. The anticipated tariff on US LNG imports by China is expected to have limited immediate effects on pricing, but the long-term outlook remains uncertain with new export capacities and potential market adjustments.

Flash | 05 Feb 2025 07:29:32 ET │ 11 pages PDD Holdings Inc (PDD.O) Quick Thoughts On USPS' Suspension Of Inbound Parcels from China (Including Hong Kong) CITI'S TAKE USPS announced a temporary suspension of international inbound parcels from China (including Hong Kong) effective 4-Feb. We believe this is likely aimed at ensuring its systems are integrated with US CBP system on latest custom clearance procedures following the implementation of new tariffs by US on imports from China. We estimate ~30-50% of ...

February 5, 2025 03:39 PM GMT China Internet | Asia Pacific Our Thoughts on a Potential Probe into iOS Channel Fee in China Bloomberg news reported a potential probe into iOS channel fee in China. We think this could benefit Tencent and NetEase if it follows the outcome in the EU – a 13ppt reduction in channel fee and allowing third-party marketplace and in-app payments. What happened: Bloomberg reported that China is considering a probe into iOS App Store practices – 30% channel fee and barring third-party ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Oil & Gas Equities Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of Chinese tariffs on oil and gas imports from the US, specifically focusing on LNG and crude oil tariffs announced on February 4, 2025, which are 15% and 10% respectively [2][3]. Key Points Impact of Tariffs - The tariffs are considered mild compared to previous retaliatory tariffs from 2018-2020, which peaked at 25% on LNG and 5% on crude oil [2]. - In 2024, US LNG and crude oil imports accounted for only 5% (4 million tonnes) and 2% (10 million tonnes) of China's total imports, indicating minimal earnings impact on the oil and gas sector [2][3]. - Long-term contracts with US energy firms allow for rerouting supplies through alternative sources, further mitigating risks [2]. Company-Specific Insights - **PetroChina**: - Imported 1.2 million tonnes of LNG from the US under long-term contracts, representing about 10% of its total LNG imports. The estimated impact on 2025 earnings is near zero [3]. - **Sinopec**: - Expected to receive up to 4 million tonnes of LNG from the US if the Plaquemines LNG Facility starts operations in 2025. The worst-case scenario estimates a 3% impact on 2025 earnings due to the additional tariff [3]. - **Downstream Gas Utilities**: - Companies like ENN and China Gas are expected to face even less impact as they do not have direct long-term contracts for LNG imports from the US in 2025 [4]. Financial Projections - **PetroChina**: - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at CNY 2,898,763 million, with a net profit of CNY 169,782 million [20]. - Target price for H-shares is set at HKD 7.60, implying a 26.5% upside from the current price [19]. - **ENN Energy**: - Revenue is projected to grow from CNY 113,858 million in 2023 to CNY 139,187 million in 2026, with a target price of HKD 80.00, indicating a 56.6% upside [34]. - **Sinopec**: - Revenue is expected to decline slightly, with a target price of HKD 4.60 for H-shares, reflecting a 7.2% upside [19]. Risks and Considerations - Potential risks for PetroChina include overseas asset impairments, lower-than-expected oil and gas prices, and changes in tax/energy policies [19]. - For ENN Energy, risks include lower industrial gas demand and slower-than-expected growth in the integrated energy business [34]. - Sinopec faces risks from lower refining margins and potential LNG import losses [19]. Additional Insights - The strength and mix of volume at risk from the tariffs are viewed as minimal, suggesting that Chinese oil and gas companies should not be overly concerned [7]. - The overall market for fuel imports remains robust, with the impact of tariffs being contained [7]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and financial projections from the conference call regarding the Chinese oil and gas sector, particularly in light of the recent tariff announcements.

5 February 2025 Equity Research Report China Consumer Equities Spring Festival: Green shoots amid moderation China Tourism – solid passenger traffic; strong inbound tourism. Inter-regional passenger trips exceeded 2.3bn during the eight-day Chinese New Year (CNY) – Spring Festival holiday (compared with 2.29bn during the seven-day CNY holiday last year) (as per Xinhua). According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the eight-day Spring Festival holiday registered 501m domestic trips (5.9% y-o-y) and RMB ...