本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 8, 2025 04:17 AM GMT China Internet | Asia Pacific 2025 Outlook: A Year of Uncertainties 20025 will likely be a year of external (tariffs, sanctions) and internal (policy, competition) uncertainties, while we expect internet companies to navigate with AI strategy, overseas expansion and capital return. Key OWs: Tencent (Top Pick), TCOM, Meituan; EWs: BABA, JD, KS, BIDU. 2025 will likely be a year of external and internal uncertainties: Externally, we see uncer ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 8, 2025 04:02 PM GMT Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd | Asia Pacific China BEST Conference Takeaways Hansoh has seen sales promotional activity recover substantially from the lows of late 2023, and maintains its double-digit sales growth target for F24. Management also indicated a >35% dividend payout for 2024, and said such a payout might be sustained in 2025. NRDL updates: The contract for Ameile has been extended with a ~8% price cut, while loxenatide wen ...

Summary of China Healthcare 2025 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Healthcare - **Report Date**: January 2025 - **Research Firm**: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited Key Points and Arguments Macroeconomic Environment - The healthcare sector in China is navigating through macroeconomic uncertainties, with a focus on achieving certainty amidst these challenges [6][58] Government Support and Policy Changes - The Basic Medical Insurance (BMI) fund is projected to remain balanced in 2024, alleviating concerns over healthcare spending [6] - Potential fiscal stimulus could enhance BMI funding and support public hospitals [8] - A Medical Insurance Law may be passed in 2025, which could define the government's role in BMI funding [8] Financial Performance and Trends - The accumulated surplus in the BMI pooling account for FY24 is expected to exceed that of FY23, indicating a positive trend in healthcare funding [8] - The growth rate of BMI pooling account income and expenditure is both at 8.9% year-on-year from January to October 2024 [8] Drug Pricing and Innovation - The average price cut from the 10th National Volume-Based Procurement (VBP) is estimated to be between 70-75%, indicating increased competition in the pharmaceutical market [15] - Innovative drugs are being added to the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) at an accelerated pace, with a negotiation success rate exceeding 90% [15] Market Dynamics - The healthcare market is seeing a shift towards commercial healthcare insurance (CHI) as a supplement to government funding, with expectations of strong policy support [8] - The demand for innovative drugs remains robust, with a projected growth of 11% year-on-year in 1H24 [70] Challenges and Risks - The healthcare sector is facing challenges from geopolitical uncertainties and the lingering effects of anti-corruption measures, which have impacted surgery numbers and overall healthcare spending [58] - The funding environment for healthcare venture capital and private equity remains under pressure, with a decline in funding observed in 2024 [59] Future Growth Potential - The healthcare sector's market capitalization in China is significantly lower compared to the EU and US, suggesting substantial room for growth [73] - The aging population and chronic disease management are expected to drive long-term healthcare demand, supported by government initiatives [72] Investment Sentiment - Foreign ownership in the China healthcare sector has declined to approximately 3.8% of the total market cap, indicating a cautious investment environment [55] - Despite the challenges, there are signs of recovery in healthcare IPOs and increased interest in listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [63] Additional Important Insights - The integration of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) into chronic disease management is being promoted by the National Health Commission (NHC) [72] - The healthcare sector's contribution to China's total stock market cap is around 5%, which is low compared to other countries, indicating potential for future growth [76] This comprehensive overview highlights the current state and future outlook of the China healthcare industry, emphasizing the interplay between government policy, market dynamics, and investment opportunities.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 7, 2025 02:31 PM GMT China Tourism Group Duty Free | Asia Pacific Risk Reward Update What's Changed China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880.HK) From To Price Target HK$60.00 HK$55.00 Base Case HK$60.00 HK$55.00 Updated Components EPS Investment Thesis Bull Base Bear Scenarios Risk Reward for China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880.HK) has been updated. Reason for change In 2024, Hainan was the major drag on China's travel retail market with offline duty- free (DF) sal ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research China Insurance Sector 2025 outlook: weathering the challenges VNB growth to moderate; P&C underwriting profit to recover Following a surprisingly strong 2024 (listed insurers' VNB: +32%, UBS-e), we expect VNB growth to moderate in 2025. For Q1, we expect jumpstart sales performance to diverge across insurers. For the rest of year, while life insurance sales would continue to benefit from the savings glut, we see multiple challenges t ...

In 2024, the pet food market grew 8.5% YoY in terms of retail sales, according to the Pet Industry White Paper, showing its strong resilience amid the sluggish economy. Domestic brands have outgrown foreign brands on sales growth with local brand obtaining increasing recognition. Looking ahead, we expect the demographic changes (ageing population and declining new birth rate) to boost the penetration of pet ownership and local brands to outperform imported brands due to consumers' rising confidence in local ...

January 6, 2025 03:30 PM GMT RESEARCH Commodities The Oil Manual - Chartbook Source: Shutterstock Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, r ...

6 January 2025 THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO MAINLAND CHINA China Rates 2025 Fixed Income Just how low can bond yields go? China China government bonds (CGBs) performed very well in December, delivering almost 2% in fixed income returns. The strong performance of CGBs may have caught some investors off guard as based on our tracking of EM local currency bond funds, portfolio managers were, on average, 3ppt underweight CGBs at the end of November. Continued economic uncertainty alongside the PBoC's ...

January 6, 2025 11:41 AM GMT China Coal | Asia Pacific China's thermal coal prices stabilized after months of decline, while inventory declined across its domestic ports. November coal production broke historical records heading into heating season. Domestic coking coal prices fell amid sluggish downstream steel demand. Modest spot thermal coal price rebound after the pullback: QHD 5500 dipped 0.3% WoW to Rmb707/t as of January 3. CCI 5500 rose 0.7% WoW to Rmb770/t. BSPI was flat at Rmb703/t. Mine-mouth pri ...