North America Equity Research 01 January 2025 J P M O R G A N Hardware & Networking Our Top 10 Predictions for 2025 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------- ...

摩根士丹利：前瞻经济工作会议，剖析中美迥异视角 20241202 摘要 • 2024 年中国 GDP 增速目标预计为 5%左右，财政赤字扩张力度将加大， 广义赤字总额预计增加约 2 万亿元人民币，其中约三分之二将用于投资 基建和战略性新兴产业，其余用于消费刺激和社会保障等。 • 国内投资者对中国经济前景相对乐观，但国际投资者较为谨慎，主要担 忧点在于供给侧改革的有效性以及中国经济是否会陷入资产负债表衰退。 • 美国经济目前面临高通胀、高财政赤字和后周期等挑战，与 2017 年经 济形势大相径庭，川普政府的三大政纲（对外关税、对内减税、严控移 民）存在内在矛盾，可能加剧经济风险。 • 美国债务成本上升，财政状况面临严峻挑战，迫使政府寻求财政调整， 这将影响其对华政策的强硬程度。 • 未来中美贸易关系仍存在不确定性，美国可能进一步加征关税，这将对 中国出口和经济增长造成冲击，尤其对低附加值消费品行业影响较大。 • 中国经济需要更强有力的周期性政策来应对通缩风险，同时推进结构性 改革，刺激与改革应并行不悖，以实现经济再平衡和可持续发展。 • 2025 年全球资产配置看好股票市场，特别是美股市场，但中国股票市 场需关 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪委 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪委 关注公众号:水木纪委 Morgan Stanley | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪委 关注公众号:水木纪委 Morgan Stanley | research October 21, 2024 05:00 PM GMT metal&ROCK | Europe Copper, China and Concentrates We see three key themes in the Copper market at the moment: 1) China stimulus, 2) whether any price rebound will drive demand destruction and 3) how TCRC negotiations will play out. Key Takeaways ■ China stimulus should be a positive for copper, all else equal. We şeegmost shu i nuf opportunity to bonet domorti sanana opportunity to boost domestic consumption if property pr ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪委 关注公众号:水木纪委 Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH October 21, 2024 04:01 AM GMT Semiconductors | North America Weekly: Earnings Week 1 (TXN, lrcx, ter, wdc, on The industry backdrop continues to be that there is strength Al/ cloud, and a gradual U shaped bottoming process elsewhere; our first week of US semis earnings should mostly point to the latter. TXN (UW, reporting after the market close on Tuesday, October 22): Seasonality vs Analog Strength. We see a mixed set up for TXN as seasonality suggests ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪委 关注公众号:水木纪委 Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH October 21, 2024 08:19 AM GMT Global Macro Strategy | Global Global FX Positioning: Long USD Positioning Bias In the week ending Friday, October 18, options pricing data indicate that investors reduced short CAD and GBP positions, and added short NOK (versus EUR) and SEK n (versus EUR) positions. In the futures market, investors reduced short USD (DXY) positions, while they cut back on long AUD and NZD positions in the week ending Tuesday, October 15. O ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪委 and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Europe Equity Research 21 October 2024 Metal Inventories in China China physical inventory trends during 3 weeks of stimulus: China steel output accelerates 2%, iron ore arrivals at highest in >5 years & China copper premia fell 20% last week | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪委 关注公众号:水木纪委 Based on consensus methodology = Morgan Stanley Research estimat Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH October 21, 2024 07:25 AM GMT Fuyao Glass Industry Group │ Asia Pacific 3Q24 NDR Takeaways - Stronger for longer · Capacity utilization to stay buoyant: Management see room for higher UT rate in 4Q (vs. ~85% in 3Q) on the back of solid China auto production and continuous market share gains overseas. Besides, Fuyao mentioned production lines are flexible and output can be increased further ...