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北美公用事业:AGA 2025要点AEE、CNP、PCG和SR是出色的会议之一;关键辩论包括DUK、PEG、SRE、WEC和XEL
摩根大通· 2025-05-23 10:55
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the North American Utilities sector, but it highlights positive sentiments and growth prospects for several companies discussed. Core Insights - The AGA Financial Forum showcased a moderately positive tone regarding the ability to mitigate IRA risks, with a focus on electric utilities and positive discussions around gas utilities [1] - Key debates centered around the implications of IRA changes, regulatory dynamics, and growth opportunities across various companies [1][4] Summary by Company Ameren Corp. (AEE) - AEE anticipates a significant increase in load with a revision to 2.3GW of data centers under construction, supporting a future plan update [7] - The company expressed confidence in limited IRA exposure and expects positive revisions from the Senate [9] Atmos Energy (ATO) - ATO's management highlighted strong operational performance and growth, projecting 6-8% growth going forward [10] CMS Energy Corp. (CMS) - CMS expects a favorable MPSC order on storm accounting deferral before the next earnings call, indicating a positive stakeholder tone [11] - The company is preparing for its 2026 IRP filing, anticipating a need for additional generation resources [12] CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP) - CNP projects a 50% increase in peak demand by the end of the decade, with significant upward bias in capex [14] - The company is focused on reducing regulatory lag and has mixed sentiments regarding the unified tracker mechanism [15][16] DTE Energy Company (DTE) - DTE is optimistic about securing large data center deals by the end of 2025 and emphasizes the need for new gas generation [17] Duke Energy Corp. (DUK) - DUK's reliance on nuclear PTCs is seen as less exposed to potential IRA changes, with a focus on maintaining its FFO to debt target [20] - The company is optimistic about new legislation in SC and NC that could enhance cash flow recovery [21] Consolidated Edison (ED) - ED is focused on its rate case, with expectations for a constructive outcome despite political risks [22][23] Emera Inc (EMA) - EMA is making progress towards a Nova Scotia plan update and anticipates a US listing soon [26][28] Enbridge Inc (ENB) - ENB's messaging highlights its position as North America's largest gas utility, with significant capex needs driven by new power demand [30] NiSource Inc. (NI) - NI is navigating a genco settlement process, with ongoing discussions about infrastructure development pace [33] New Jersey Resources (NJR) - NJR reported positive sentiment in NJ gas utilities, with potential capex opportunities highlighted [36] NorthWestern Energy (NWE) - NWE is working on securing data center signings, which could significantly impact its growth trajectory [39] PG&E Corp (PCG) - PCG's GRC filing aims to keep residential customer bills flat, with a focus on affordability amid ongoing pressures [42] - The company is optimistic about legislative discussions surrounding wildfire fund frameworks [43] Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. (PEG) - PEG is addressing short-term bill pressures with proposals aimed at moderating customer impacts ahead of elections [47]
巴西金融行业:金融交易税(IOF)变化-新规则的10个要点-诸多问题与潜在变化
摩根大通· 2025-05-23 10:55
Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry or companies discussed [22][24][26]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance announced changes to the tax on financial transactions (IOF), which could generate R$20.5 billion in tax collection in 2025 and R$41 billion in 2026, impacting various sectors, particularly the local fund management industry [1]. - The increase in IOF for corporate credit is expected to be passed on to borrowers, potentially leading to higher credit costs and lower commercial credit growth [5]. - The changes in IOF for foreign investments and digital wallets may drive more allocation into local assets, although the overall sentiment in capital markets may worsen due to these measures [5][6]. Summary by Sections IOF Changes - Investments from funds into foreign assets will incur a new IOF of 3.5%, affecting local fund allocations in international assets and structured products [5]. - Remittances from non-residents under Res. 4,373 are not expected to be impacted, which may benefit certain fund structures [5]. - The government has increased the IOF for companies to align with individual rates, which could lead to higher credit costs and a shift towards capital market structures to avoid IOF taxation [5][6]. Specific Rate Changes - The IOF for funds investing abroad has changed from zero to 3.5% [7]. - The IOF for commercial loans has increased significantly, with maximum caps rising from R$188 to R$395 per year for R$10,000 loans [7]. - Digital wallets will see an increase in IOF from 1.1% to 3.5%, making local banks more competitive in foreign payment services [5][6]. Implications for Financial Institutions - The changes may lead to a more competitive environment for local banks regarding foreign payment services, potentially increasing card usage abroad [6]. - The report notes that rural credit remains exempt from these changes, which should alleviate some burdens on agribusiness portfolios [9].
运输与物流每周快速追踪公路检查中费率跃升、铁路并购想法、进口更新、新的空运数据
摩根大通· 2025-05-23 10:55
J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 23 May 2025 Transportation & Logistics See page 62 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Airfreight & Surface Transportation / ...
摩根大通亚太地区科技-韩美/小米/联想
摩根大通· 2025-05-23 10:50
Specialist Sales APAC Specialist Sales 22 May 2025 J P M O R G A N Xiaomi (N PT HK$53.20): new 3nm AP (application processor) for mobile + MTK modem – Gokul Hariharan link • Hanmi Semi (O/W, PT W100k) 1Q: key is de-escalating SK Hynix tensions – Jay Kwon link • Xiaomi (N PT HK$53.20): new 3nm AP (application processor) for mobile + MTK modem – Gokul Hariharan link • Lenovo (O/W PT -> HK$13): ISG (server) profit improvement – Albert Hung link • ASML (O/W PT EU 970): mainly receiving orders from TSMC, SK Hyni ...
湾流:股价短期上涨空间有限,但长期增长潜力不变-20250523
摩根大通· 2025-05-23 00:55
J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 23 May 2025 BayCurrent (6532) See little short-term upside for share price, but unchanged longer-term growth potential Reflecting the current business environment, we raise our price target from ¥8,000 to ¥8,600 (5% upside as of May 22). We think the market views the capital policy announced at FY2024 results (dividend payout ratio of 40%, total return ratio of about 60%) as positive, and based on this policy we expect ROE to remain at least 40% from FY2026 (37% ...
欧洲科技、媒体和电信会议
摩根大通· 2025-05-23 00:55
Scott Silver - Specialist Sales - European TMT AC (44-20) 7134-0412 scott.silver@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Europe Specialist Sales 22 May 2025 J P M O R G A N Scott Silver +44 207 134 0412 scott.silver@jpmorgan.com Day 2 of our European Tech Conference in London. We have 60 corporate's attending with ~300 investors descending on Canary Wharf. I will be sending around daily wraps throughout the conference from the presentations and conversations we've found most interesting. To view the agenda, ...
力拓合并、印度石油天然气公司业绩未达预期、FMG最新消息、炼油强劲vs原油疲软
摩根大通· 2025-05-23 00:50
Specialist Sales APAC Specialist Sales 22 May 2025 J P M O R G A N Rio unification, ONGC miss, FMG update, Strong Refining vs Weak Crude Anmol Mehta +852 2800 8896 anmol.mehta@jpmorgan.com Key Highlights Today Commodities Price Action | Best Movers | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Ticker | Last Price | %1D | | Alumina (RMB/t) | 3230.0 | 1.5 | | LME ZINC 3MO ($) | 2710.5 | 1.3 | | Aluminium ($/t) | 2465.3 | 0.8 | | China Li2Co3 (Rmb/t) | 62500.0 | 0.6 | | US NatGas ($/mmbtu) | 3.4 | 0.2 | | Best Movers | | | Wors ...
JP汽车(预估修正),丰田工业,巴拉特电子(首次分析),恒力(降级/评级),GEV(深度研究)
摩根大通· 2025-05-20 05:45
Joann Kim +852 2800 8016 joann.kim@jpmorgan.com Multiple inbounds on Defense names amid rising share price volatility, what to do with them. I was arguing the story is not over yet, whether Ukraine-Russia peace deal or not, highlighting structural defense spending increase with the next catalyst being the NATO summit in June where higher defense spending is likely to be agreed. On top of structural defense spending, two headlines from last evening boost Defense names sentiment. Trump wanted to retreat from ...
摩根大通|日本制铁/美国钢铁、力拓锂交易、中国能源之旅、印达金属报告
摩根大通· 2025-05-20 05:45
Investment Rating - The report upgrades Emerging Market (EM) equities to Overweight (OW) while maintaining a cautious stance on the energy sector [4][7]. Core Insights - Nippon Steel plans to invest an additional $14 billion in U.S. Steel, with $11 billion allocated for infrastructure through 2028, raising concerns about financial health due to increased debt levels [7][10]. - Rio Tinto has formed a joint venture with Codelco to develop a lithium project in Chile, which is expected to expand its lithium strategy without impacting earnings forecasts until 2029 [6][10]. - Hindalco's upcoming report is anticipated to focus on EBITDA per tonne, with expectations of a 6% growth in Q4 compared to Q3, driven by alumina expansion [9][10]. Summary by Sections Nippon Steel - Plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel, including $4 billion for a new steel mill, contingent on regulatory approval [7]. - Concerns about financial health as debt-to-equity ratio could rise to 1.1x if the deal is fully debt-financed [7]. Rio Tinto - Joint venture with Codelco for lithium project in Salar de Maricunga, with initial funding of $350 million and potential construction costs of $500 million [6][10]. - Current lithium output forecast to grow from 75,000 tons per annum in 2024 to 460,000 tons per annum by 2029-2033 [6][10]. Hindalco - Focus on EBITDA per tonne in the upcoming report, with a forecasted 6% growth in Q4 [9][10]. - Concerns about alumina exposure, but analysis suggests limited impact on share prices [10].
摩根大通亚太地区科技-联发科主题演讲/扬智科技/SHIFT UG/辉达/英伟达
摩根大通· 2025-05-20 05:45
Specialist Sales APAC Specialist Sales 20 May 2025 Duncan Wagner +852 2800 8874 duncan.wagner@jpmorgan.com J P M O R G A N Mediatek today Computex keynote 11am-12pm TPE time (link below): focus: ASICs into 2H26, GB10 sell-thru, flagship smartphone gains. ASPEED revised up 2Q revenue guidance, likely seeing share gain from new Intel platform - Albert Hung re- iterates O/W. Matthew Henderson upgrades SHIFT -> O/W, raises PT -> Y1,900 on broad-based projects strength. Gokul highlights SIMO share gain at TMC. N ...