Group 1: Economic Context - China's consumption currently accounts for just 40% of GDP, with a savings rate exceeding 30%[3] - Elevated household savings lead to industrial overcapacity and persistent trade surpluses, impacting global trade dynamics[3] - Greater domestic consumption is essential for China's economic resilience and should be a top policy priority[11] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - US-China negotiations emphasize the need for China to lift consumption to address trade imbalances[4] - Other countries are also pushing for China to increase domestic demand to avoid trade barriers due to excess capacity concerns[7] - The recent US/UK trade agreement includes provisions that may indirectly target China's manufacturing practices[8] Group 3: Investment Implications - The consumer and internet sectors in China are attractively valued, with EPS trends showing a solid upturn[16] - If policy support for consumption increases, both EPS growth and P/E multiples could re-rate significantly, starting from over 20% below the 10-year average[16] - Proactive support for consumption could lead to a slower pace of debt accumulation and easing deflation pressures in China[17]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Workday with a price target of $295.00 for December 2025, revised from a previous target of $310.00 [2][14]. Core Insights - Workday is expected to maintain consistent performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties, with positive trends in customer acquisition and revenue growth [1][12]. - The company has reported a significant increase in its 12-month subscription backlog, which reached $7.63 billion, up 15.6% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations [1][12]. - Workday's total revenue for the first quarter was $2.24 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 12.6%, driven by subscription revenue growth of 13.4% [1][12]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in various sectors, particularly in Technology & Media and Manufacturing, each surpassing $1 billion in annual recurring revenue [1][12]. - Workday's operating margin for the first quarter was reported at 30.2%, which is approximately 2 percentage points above consensus estimates, indicating strong operational efficiency [1][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The first quarter results showed a 12-month subscription backlog of $7.63 billion, up 15.6% year-over-year, and total revenue of $2.24 billion, up 12.6% year-over-year [1][12]. - Subscription revenue was $2.06 billion, reflecting a 13.4% increase year-over-year, with a notable adjustment for leap-year comparisons showing a 15% increase [1][12]. - The adjusted operating margin for the first quarter was 30.2%, expanding over 400 basis points year-over-year, with GAAP free cash flow of $421 million, representing an 18.8% margin [1][12]. Growth Drivers - Workday is focusing on full-suite offerings, with over 30% of new wins in the first quarter being full-suite contracts, consistent with previous quarters [1][12]. - The company is also seeing momentum in its AI product offerings, with new annual contract value (ACV) from AI products more than doubling year-over-year [12][14]. - The launch of WorkdayGO is aimed at midmarket customers, facilitating quicker implementations and contributing to growth in this segment [12][14]. Guidance and Outlook - For the second quarter, Workday anticipates a 12-month subscription backlog growth of 15.5% year-over-year, which is above consensus expectations [12]. - The company maintains its fiscal year 2026 subscription revenue outlook of approximately $8.8 billion, reflecting a 14% year-over-year growth [12]. - Workday's guidance for the second quarter includes a total revenue growth of 12.2% year-over-year, aligning closely with market expectations [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Ross Stores with a price target of $141.00, lowered from a previous target of $161.00 [2][19][20]. Core Insights - Ross Stores reported an adjusted 1Q EPS of $1.47, exceeding the Street estimate of $1.44 and within management's guidance of $1.33 to $1.47, driven by flat same-store sales growth and stable operating margins [1][16]. - Management has withdrawn FY25 guidance due to uncertainties surrounding tariff announcements but has provided expectations for 2Q25, forecasting EPS of $1.40 to $1.55, which is below the Street estimate of $1.65 [1][14]. - The company is positioned favorably in the off-price retail sector, with a target of 2,500 stores implying over 10 years of annual square footage growth of 5-6% [10][19]. Financial Performance - For 1Q, Ross Stores achieved flat same-store sales growth, with April showing a notable improvement to +3% compared to previous months [1][16]. - The company reported a 12.2% EBIT margin, above the Street's expectation of 11.9%, and gross margin remained flat year-over-year at 28.2% [1][18]. - The report indicates a revenue growth of 2.6% for 1Q, with net income of $479 million and an adjusted EPS of $1.47 [18]. Future Outlook - Management expects 2Q same-store sales to be flat to +3%, which represents a significant acceleration compared to 1Q [1][14]. - The anticipated operating margin for 2Q is projected to decline to 10.7-11.4%, below the Street's expectation of 12.4% [1][14]. - The report highlights potential headwinds from tariffs, estimating a quarterly EPS impact of $0.11 to $0.16 due to tariff-related costs [7][14]. Valuation Metrics - The revised price target of $141 is based on approximately 22 times the revised 2026 EPS, reflecting a low-double-digit growth algorithm [11][20]. - The report outlines adjusted EPS estimates for FY25 at $6.16, down from a previous estimate of $6.60, with a projected operating margin of 11.4% [2][14]. Market Position - Ross Stores is well-positioned to capture market share from department stores, benefiting from a strong value proposition that offers prices 20-60% lower than competitors [10][19]. - The company has a robust balance sheet, ending 1Q with $3.8 billion in cash against $1.5 billion in debt, supporting its growth strategy [16][18].

Investment Ratings - CBRE Group, Inc: Overweight; Price Target: $143.00 [16] - Colliers International Group Inc.: Neutral; Price Target: $137.00 [21] - Cushman & Wakefield: Neutral; Price Target: $13.00 [25] - Jones Lang LaSalle Inc: Overweight; Price Target: $285.00 [29] Core Insights - The report indicates an overall positive outlook for the commercial real estate (CRE) services sector, with revenue forecasts for 2025 showing an average increase of 3%, leading to a projected 9% year-over-year growth [1] - The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) estimates have been revised upward by 4%, indicating a 12% year-over-year growth, while earnings per share (EPS) estimates have increased by 7%, reflecting a 19% year-over-year growth [1] - The report highlights that the estimates have fluctuated over the past six months due to various macroeconomic factors, but recent strong earnings results have led to a renewed optimism in the sector [2][3] Company Summaries CBRE Group, Inc - CBRE is recognized as the largest global provider of CRE services, with a strong track record in capital allocation and organic growth [16] - The company is expected to achieve a compelling earnings growth of 19% in 2025, outperforming asset-heavy landlords and the broader equity market [4] - CBRE's valuation is attractive, trading at 19.8x 2025 EPS, which is below the S&P 500 average of 22.2x [5][17] Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI) - CIGI is the third largest global CRE services platform, with a brokerage incremental margin of approximately 20%, which is lower than its peers [21] - The company has been actively acquiring businesses, averaging over $300 million per year, and is investing in investment management and engineering acquisitions [21] - CIGI trades at 18.8x 2025 EPS, slightly below CBRE but above CWK [22] Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) - CWK is positioned to benefit from the institutionalization of real estate investing, although it faces challenges due to its higher leverage [25] - The company is expected to improve margins as it scales, but specific risks remain that could impact its performance [25] - CWK trades at a low valuation of 8.4x 2025 EPS, indicating potential upside if it can manage its leverage effectively [26] Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. (JLL) - JLL is the second largest commercial real estate services platform globally, with a competitive EBITDA margin of 14.8% [29] - The company is well-positioned for growth, particularly with expectations of a rebound in capital markets [29] - JLL trades at 12.9x 2025 EPS, which is attractive compared to its peers, and maintains a price target of $285.00 [30][31]

Investment Rating - Insurance Australia Group (IAG AU) is rated as Overweight (OW) with a price target of A$8.9, representing an 18% premium to the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation of A$7.5 [3][6]. Core Insights - The recent approval of the RACQ merger is expected to be 6% accretive to earnings per share (EPS) by FY27, which strengthens IAG's position as a leading personal line consolidator despite near-term challenges from flooding in New South Wales [3][4]. - In Malaysia, inflation has increased slightly in April, but the forecast remains for a 50 basis point rate cut in 2025, which is seen as beneficial for Malaysian banks due to low current account savings account (CASA) ratios [3][9]. - The advancement of the GENIUS Act is causing a rally in Asian crypto stocks, although there are concerns about overly optimistic projections regarding the growth of the stablecoin market [3][10]. Detailed Highlights - The IAG-RACQ merger has received approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), which is expected to solidify IAG's market share in personal lines, particularly as smaller competitors reduce home insurance commission rates [4]. - The substantial flooding in Northern New South Wales is impacting IAG's share price in the short term, with historical data indicating significant losses from similar events in the past [4][6]. - The Malaysian banking sector is experiencing a shift, with Harsh Modi upgrading PBK to Overweight while downgrading DBS to Neutral, reflecting a more favorable outlook for PBK's payout compared to DBS [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Boss Energy, indicating a positive outlook for the stock in the uranium sector [6][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant management changes in the mining sector, particularly noting the upcoming departure of Rio Tinto's CEO and the potential implications for strategic direction and M&A activity [1][9]. - The US renewables sector faces challenges due to amendments in the budget reconciliation bill that could strip ITC/PTC credits, negatively impacting companies like Hanwha Solutions and Enphase [2][9]. - JSW Steel is expected to report a 20% quarter-over-quarter growth in consolidated EBITDA, driven by higher volumes and lower coking coal costs, despite flat ASPs [14]. Detailed Highlights - **Rio Tinto**: CEO Jakob Stausholm will step down in 2025, prompting expectations for strategic changes and value unlock initiatives. The company is currently trading at a significant discount, with a target price indicating approximately 30% upside potential [9]. - **Renewables Whiplash**: The amended House reconciliation bill poses risks to the renewables sector, particularly affecting projects reliant on ITC/PTC credits. The focus now shifts to the Senate for potential adjustments [9]. - **JSW Steel**: Anticipated to show strong performance in EBITDA due to operational efficiencies and market conditions, with a focus on the implications of the Bhushan Power Asset situation [14]. - **Anglo American**: The company is executing a spin-off of its stake in Anglo American Platinum, which is valued at approximately $5.3 billion, with expectations of significant share distribution and market impact [15]. - **Boss Energy**: Following a recent pullback, the stock is upgraded to Overweight, with a new price target reflecting a 15% upside based on improved valuation metrics [18].

Investment Ratings - Power Finance has a Neutral recommendation on the 3.95% 2030 bonds [1] - Lenovo has a Neutral issuer rating, but is Overweight on LENOVO '32s [8] Core Insights - Power Finance reported strong profitability with a decline in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to 1.94%, down from 2.68% [2] - Lenovo's revenue growth accelerated across all segments, with Intelligent Device Group, Infrastructure Solutions Group, and Solutions and Services Group revenues increasing by 13%, 63%, and 18% year-on-year respectively [3] - GMR Airports reported robust preliminary earnings for Q4FY25, with Delhi Airport's passenger traffic increasing by 7.5% year-on-year and revenues surging by 24.1% [9][10] Power Finance Summary - Full-year net income rose by 23.7% year-on-year to INR 193.4 billion, driven by a nearly 40% increase in net interest income and a 151.6% rise in net fee and commission income [2] - The asset quality improved, with the NPL ratio hitting multi-year lows [2] - The total capital ratio decreased to 22.08%, while the debt/equity ratio increased to 6.15x [2] Lenovo Summary - Operating profit growth moderated to 3% year-on-year in CY1Q25, down from 12% in CY4Q24, primarily due to a 21% increase in R&D expenses [3] - Operating cash flow turned negative at -US$1 billion in Q1 [3] - Lenovo is exposed to geopolitical risks, particularly from tariffs and semiconductor restrictions [8] India Airports Summary - Delhi Airport's revenues increased by 24.1% year-on-year to INR 16.4 billion in Q4FY25, with total passenger traffic reaching 20.6 million [9][10] - Hyderabad Airport reported a 21.1% year-on-year increase in passenger traffic, with revenues up by 6.9% year-on-year [9][10] - Both airports have seen recent rating upgrades due to improving financial performance [10]

Investment Rating - HEI is rated Overweight (O/W) [3] - Evonik is also rated Overweight (O/W) [4] Core Insights - The upcoming Capital Markets Day (CMD) for HEI is anticipated to be a significant event, potentially clarifying the market's outlook on the CCS/Low Carbon Cement opportunity, which could provide up to 40% long-term upside. The core investment case is based on an improving European cement market structure, which is expected to enhance pricing and demand due to increased infrastructure spending [3] - The UK construction sector shows positive trends, particularly for companies adjacent to home builders, with performance exceeding both buy and sell-side expectations. UK mortgage rates are highlighted as a critical factor influencing sector sentiment, especially for larger renovation and maintenance activities [3] - Evonik's CMD revealed a bold vision to become the "Industry's Superforce" by focusing on sustainable innovation and operational excellence. The company aims for a pre-tax ROCE of 11% by 2027 and an adjusted EBITDA of €2.7 billion, which is 13% above current consensus estimates, with a projected CAGR of 9% from 2024 [4][11] Summary by Sections HEI and UK Construction - HEI's CMD is expected to provide significant insights into the CCS opportunity, with the potential for substantial long-term gains. The current share performance suggests a cautious market positioning ahead of the event [3] - The UK construction sector is launching a new corporate tracker that will provide timely updates on key trends and company performances, indicating a positive outlook for home builder adjacent companies [5] Evonik - Evonik's management is focusing on self-help measures to drive earnings growth, with a target of achieving a pre-tax ROCE of 11% by 2027. The company plans to achieve two-thirds of its EBITDA growth through cost savings, indicating a strong emphasis on operational efficiency [4][11] - The market is currently waiting for clear evidence of cost savings before fully pricing in the company's growth potential, suggesting a cautious approach from investors [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry or companies discussed [22][24][26]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance announced changes to the tax on financial transactions (IOF), which could generate R$20.5 billion in tax collection in 2025 and R$41 billion in 2026, impacting various sectors, particularly the local fund management industry [1]. - The increase in IOF for corporate credit is expected to be passed on to borrowers, potentially leading to higher credit costs and lower commercial credit growth [5]. - The changes in IOF for foreign investments and digital wallets may drive more allocation into local assets, although the overall sentiment in capital markets may worsen due to these measures [5][6]. Summary by Sections IOF Changes - Investments from funds into foreign assets will incur a new IOF of 3.5%, affecting local fund allocations in international assets and structured products [5]. - Remittances from non-residents under Res. 4,373 are not expected to be impacted, which may benefit certain fund structures [5]. - The government has increased the IOF for companies to align with individual rates, which could lead to higher credit costs and a shift towards capital market structures to avoid IOF taxation [5][6]. Specific Rate Changes - The IOF for funds investing abroad has changed from zero to 3.5% [7]. - The IOF for commercial loans has increased significantly, with maximum caps rising from R$188 to R$395 per year for R$10,000 loans [7]. - Digital wallets will see an increase in IOF from 1.1% to 3.5%, making local banks more competitive in foreign payment services [5][6]. Implications for Financial Institutions - The changes may lead to a more competitive environment for local banks regarding foreign payment services, potentially increasing card usage abroad [6]. - The report notes that rural credit remains exempt from these changes, which should alleviate some burdens on agribusiness portfolios [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the North American Utilities sector, but it highlights positive sentiments and growth prospects for several companies discussed. Core Insights - The AGA Financial Forum showcased a moderately positive tone regarding the ability to mitigate IRA risks, with a focus on electric utilities and positive discussions around gas utilities [1] - Key debates centered around the implications of IRA changes, regulatory dynamics, and growth opportunities across various companies [1][4] Summary by Company Ameren Corp. (AEE) - AEE anticipates a significant increase in load with a revision to 2.3GW of data centers under construction, supporting a future plan update [7] - The company expressed confidence in limited IRA exposure and expects positive revisions from the Senate [9] Atmos Energy (ATO) - ATO's management highlighted strong operational performance and growth, projecting 6-8% growth going forward [10] CMS Energy Corp. (CMS) - CMS expects a favorable MPSC order on storm accounting deferral before the next earnings call, indicating a positive stakeholder tone [11] - The company is preparing for its 2026 IRP filing, anticipating a need for additional generation resources [12] CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP) - CNP projects a 50% increase in peak demand by the end of the decade, with significant upward bias in capex [14] - The company is focused on reducing regulatory lag and has mixed sentiments regarding the unified tracker mechanism [15][16] DTE Energy Company (DTE) - DTE is optimistic about securing large data center deals by the end of 2025 and emphasizes the need for new gas generation [17] Duke Energy Corp. (DUK) - DUK's reliance on nuclear PTCs is seen as less exposed to potential IRA changes, with a focus on maintaining its FFO to debt target [20] - The company is optimistic about new legislation in SC and NC that could enhance cash flow recovery [21] Consolidated Edison (ED) - ED is focused on its rate case, with expectations for a constructive outcome despite political risks [22][23] Emera Inc (EMA) - EMA is making progress towards a Nova Scotia plan update and anticipates a US listing soon [26][28] Enbridge Inc (ENB) - ENB's messaging highlights its position as North America's largest gas utility, with significant capex needs driven by new power demand [30] NiSource Inc. (NI) - NI is navigating a genco settlement process, with ongoing discussions about infrastructure development pace [33] New Jersey Resources (NJR) - NJR reported positive sentiment in NJ gas utilities, with potential capex opportunities highlighted [36] NorthWestern Energy (NWE) - NWE is working on securing data center signings, which could significantly impact its growth trajectory [39] PG&E Corp (PCG) - PCG's GRC filing aims to keep residential customer bills flat, with a focus on affordability amid ongoing pressures [42] - The company is optimistic about legislative discussions surrounding wildfire fund frameworks [43] Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. (PEG) - PEG is addressing short-term bill pressures with proposals aimed at moderating customer impacts ahead of elections [47]