Investment Rating - The report maintains an Underweight (UW) rating on Lynas Rare Earths and a Neutral (N) rating on MP Materials [2][9]. Core Insights - The rare earths industry is facing significant supply chain disruptions due to China's export restrictions on key heavies like Terbium and Dysprosium, which are critical for electric vehicles and advanced technologies [9]. - Despite potential trade negotiations between the US and China, the damage to the supply chain may be lasting, prompting a shift towards developing non-Chinese sources of rare earths [9]. - The oil sector is expected to see strong refining margins, with a projected surplus of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbd) in Q4 2025, leading to a price floor for Brent crude between $55-60 and WTI between $50-55 [3][15]. Rare Earths Sector Summary - China controls approximately 70% of rare earth production, 85% of processing capacity, and 99% of heavies production, which has led to a scramble for alternative sources among automakers [9]. - Lynas Rare Earths and MP Materials are identified as key beneficiaries of the push for ex-China supply, with Lynas having over 85% exposure to NdPr, which is not currently restricted [9]. - The report expresses caution regarding the sustainability of the current rally in rare earth prices and the timing of commercial production volumes from alternative sources [9]. Oil Sector Summary - The report highlights five conditions necessary for crude prices to decline, with only two expected to materialize: a surge in OECD inventories and a flattening crude curve [15]. - Refining margins are anticipated to remain strong due to limited new capacity coming online, influenced by China's export restrictions and closures of US/EU plants [3][15]. - The report suggests that product stocks are expected to build, but low starting levels should support prices and margins [15].

Investment Ratings - Broadcom: Overweight (O/W) with a price target (PT) of $250 [4] - TSMC: Overweight (O/W) with a price target (PT) of $1275 [6] - Hon Hai: Overweight (O/W) with a price target (PT) of $210 [7] - Wistron: Neutral (N) with a price target (PT) of $118 [9] - Ciena: Overweight (O/W) with a price target (PT) of $86 [10] - Lumentum: Overweight (O/W) with a price target (PT) of $87 [11] - TIS: Neutral (N) with a price target (PT) of Y4,700 [12] - SCSK: Neutral (N) with a price target (PT) of Y4,400 [13] Core Insights - Broadcom is expected to see significant AI XPU growth, with AI revenues projected to rise from $12.2 billion in 2024 to $31.2 billion by 2026, surpassing street consensus [5] - TSMC maintains strong gross margins (GMs) and anticipates a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% through 2029, supported by price increases and a faster ramp of N2 technology [6][8] - Hon Hai's sales in May were impacted by TWD appreciation, but AI demand remains strong, with expectations of reaching 2,000 rack shipments in Q2 [7][9] - Wistron is focusing on GDR issuance to support AI system growth, with expectations of sustained revenue driven by robust demand for Dell's GB200 systems [9][15] - Ciena's revenue and order strength indicate robust growth in the optical market, driven by cloud and service provider investments [10] - Lumentum is updating its revenue expectations due to strong demand in optics, forecasting a quarterly revenue target of $500 million ahead of schedule [11] Detailed Highlights - Broadcom's AI revenue growth is expected to significantly exceed consensus estimates, with a bullish outlook for the AI sector overall [5] - TSMC's pricing strategy includes anticipated price hikes for leading-edge nodes, with a focus on maintaining high gross margins [6][8] - Hon Hai's revenue growth is expected to continue, driven by AI server demand, despite short-term currency impacts [7][9] - Wistron's capital raise is aimed at supporting AI system growth, with expectations of increased shipments in the coming months [9][15] - Ciena's strong sales trends are attributed to increased cloud investments, indicating a positive outlook for the optical market [10] - Lumentum's demand strength is leading to an upward revision in revenue forecasts, reflecting robust drivers in the optics sector [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Anta Sports [1] Core Insights - Anta Sports has continued the stable trend observed in the first quarter of this year, supported by healthy inventory levels and optimistic sales and performance [1] - The target price for Anta Sports has been raised from HKD 140 to HKD 142 [1] - The retail sales guidance for Anta Sports remains unchanged, with expected growth rates of high single digits for Anta, mid single digits for Fila, and over 30% for other brands [1] - The operating profit margin guidance is maintained, with expected margins of 20% to 25% for Anta, approximately 25% for Fila, and 25% to 30% for other brands [1] - Due to increased investment in MaiaActive and the planned acquisition of JackWolfskin to be completed in June, the earnings forecast for Anta Sports for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 1% to 2% [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388) with a target price of HKD 340 for the next 12 months [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that improvements in the new stock listing channels for Hong Kong Exchanges are a significant long-term benefit for the Greater China stock market, as the Stock Connect programs have fundamentally changed the investment landscape for both Hong Kong and mainland Chinese investors since their launch in 2014 [1] - It mentions that there are 26 Chinese concept stocks, which are constituents of the MSCI China and FTSE China indices, that have not yet been listed in Hong Kong, with a total market capitalization of USD 237 billion and an average daily trading volume of USD 2 billion over the past three months, representing approximately 5% and 6% of Hong Kong Exchanges' current market capitalization and daily trading volume, respectively [1] - According to sensitivity analysis, if all these stocks were to list in Hong Kong, it is anticipated that the earnings per share for Hong Kong Exchanges would increase by 6% by 2026 [1]

Group 1: Economic Context - China's consumption currently accounts for just 40% of GDP, with a savings rate exceeding 30%[3] - Elevated household savings lead to industrial overcapacity and persistent trade surpluses, impacting global trade dynamics[3] - Greater domestic consumption is essential for China's economic resilience and should be a top policy priority[11] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - US-China negotiations emphasize the need for China to lift consumption to address trade imbalances[4] - Other countries are also pushing for China to increase domestic demand to avoid trade barriers due to excess capacity concerns[7] - The recent US/UK trade agreement includes provisions that may indirectly target China's manufacturing practices[8] Group 3: Investment Implications - The consumer and internet sectors in China are attractively valued, with EPS trends showing a solid upturn[16] - If policy support for consumption increases, both EPS growth and P/E multiples could re-rate significantly, starting from over 20% below the 10-year average[16] - Proactive support for consumption could lead to a slower pace of debt accumulation and easing deflation pressures in China[17]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Workday with a price target of $295.00 for December 2025, revised from a previous target of $310.00 [2][14]. Core Insights - Workday is expected to maintain consistent performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties, with positive trends in customer acquisition and revenue growth [1][12]. - The company has reported a significant increase in its 12-month subscription backlog, which reached $7.63 billion, up 15.6% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations [1][12]. - Workday's total revenue for the first quarter was $2.24 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 12.6%, driven by subscription revenue growth of 13.4% [1][12]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in various sectors, particularly in Technology & Media and Manufacturing, each surpassing $1 billion in annual recurring revenue [1][12]. - Workday's operating margin for the first quarter was reported at 30.2%, which is approximately 2 percentage points above consensus estimates, indicating strong operational efficiency [1][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The first quarter results showed a 12-month subscription backlog of $7.63 billion, up 15.6% year-over-year, and total revenue of $2.24 billion, up 12.6% year-over-year [1][12]. - Subscription revenue was $2.06 billion, reflecting a 13.4% increase year-over-year, with a notable adjustment for leap-year comparisons showing a 15% increase [1][12]. - The adjusted operating margin for the first quarter was 30.2%, expanding over 400 basis points year-over-year, with GAAP free cash flow of $421 million, representing an 18.8% margin [1][12]. Growth Drivers - Workday is focusing on full-suite offerings, with over 30% of new wins in the first quarter being full-suite contracts, consistent with previous quarters [1][12]. - The company is also seeing momentum in its AI product offerings, with new annual contract value (ACV) from AI products more than doubling year-over-year [12][14]. - The launch of WorkdayGO is aimed at midmarket customers, facilitating quicker implementations and contributing to growth in this segment [12][14]. Guidance and Outlook - For the second quarter, Workday anticipates a 12-month subscription backlog growth of 15.5% year-over-year, which is above consensus expectations [12]. - The company maintains its fiscal year 2026 subscription revenue outlook of approximately $8.8 billion, reflecting a 14% year-over-year growth [12]. - Workday's guidance for the second quarter includes a total revenue growth of 12.2% year-over-year, aligning closely with market expectations [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Ross Stores with a price target of $141.00, lowered from a previous target of $161.00 [2][19][20]. Core Insights - Ross Stores reported an adjusted 1Q EPS of $1.47, exceeding the Street estimate of $1.44 and within management's guidance of $1.33 to $1.47, driven by flat same-store sales growth and stable operating margins [1][16]. - Management has withdrawn FY25 guidance due to uncertainties surrounding tariff announcements but has provided expectations for 2Q25, forecasting EPS of $1.40 to $1.55, which is below the Street estimate of $1.65 [1][14]. - The company is positioned favorably in the off-price retail sector, with a target of 2,500 stores implying over 10 years of annual square footage growth of 5-6% [10][19]. Financial Performance - For 1Q, Ross Stores achieved flat same-store sales growth, with April showing a notable improvement to +3% compared to previous months [1][16]. - The company reported a 12.2% EBIT margin, above the Street's expectation of 11.9%, and gross margin remained flat year-over-year at 28.2% [1][18]. - The report indicates a revenue growth of 2.6% for 1Q, with net income of $479 million and an adjusted EPS of $1.47 [18]. Future Outlook - Management expects 2Q same-store sales to be flat to +3%, which represents a significant acceleration compared to 1Q [1][14]. - The anticipated operating margin for 2Q is projected to decline to 10.7-11.4%, below the Street's expectation of 12.4% [1][14]. - The report highlights potential headwinds from tariffs, estimating a quarterly EPS impact of $0.11 to $0.16 due to tariff-related costs [7][14]. Valuation Metrics - The revised price target of $141 is based on approximately 22 times the revised 2026 EPS, reflecting a low-double-digit growth algorithm [11][20]. - The report outlines adjusted EPS estimates for FY25 at $6.16, down from a previous estimate of $6.60, with a projected operating margin of 11.4% [2][14]. Market Position - Ross Stores is well-positioned to capture market share from department stores, benefiting from a strong value proposition that offers prices 20-60% lower than competitors [10][19]. - The company has a robust balance sheet, ending 1Q with $3.8 billion in cash against $1.5 billion in debt, supporting its growth strategy [16][18].

Investment Ratings - CBRE Group, Inc: Overweight; Price Target: $143.00 [16] - Colliers International Group Inc.: Neutral; Price Target: $137.00 [21] - Cushman & Wakefield: Neutral; Price Target: $13.00 [25] - Jones Lang LaSalle Inc: Overweight; Price Target: $285.00 [29] Core Insights - The report indicates an overall positive outlook for the commercial real estate (CRE) services sector, with revenue forecasts for 2025 showing an average increase of 3%, leading to a projected 9% year-over-year growth [1] - The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) estimates have been revised upward by 4%, indicating a 12% year-over-year growth, while earnings per share (EPS) estimates have increased by 7%, reflecting a 19% year-over-year growth [1] - The report highlights that the estimates have fluctuated over the past six months due to various macroeconomic factors, but recent strong earnings results have led to a renewed optimism in the sector [2][3] Company Summaries CBRE Group, Inc - CBRE is recognized as the largest global provider of CRE services, with a strong track record in capital allocation and organic growth [16] - The company is expected to achieve a compelling earnings growth of 19% in 2025, outperforming asset-heavy landlords and the broader equity market [4] - CBRE's valuation is attractive, trading at 19.8x 2025 EPS, which is below the S&P 500 average of 22.2x [5][17] Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI) - CIGI is the third largest global CRE services platform, with a brokerage incremental margin of approximately 20%, which is lower than its peers [21] - The company has been actively acquiring businesses, averaging over $300 million per year, and is investing in investment management and engineering acquisitions [21] - CIGI trades at 18.8x 2025 EPS, slightly below CBRE but above CWK [22] Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) - CWK is positioned to benefit from the institutionalization of real estate investing, although it faces challenges due to its higher leverage [25] - The company is expected to improve margins as it scales, but specific risks remain that could impact its performance [25] - CWK trades at a low valuation of 8.4x 2025 EPS, indicating potential upside if it can manage its leverage effectively [26] Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. (JLL) - JLL is the second largest commercial real estate services platform globally, with a competitive EBITDA margin of 14.8% [29] - The company is well-positioned for growth, particularly with expectations of a rebound in capital markets [29] - JLL trades at 12.9x 2025 EPS, which is attractive compared to its peers, and maintains a price target of $285.00 [30][31]

Investment Rating - Insurance Australia Group (IAG AU) is rated as Overweight (OW) with a price target of A$8.9, representing an 18% premium to the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation of A$7.5 [3][6]. Core Insights - The recent approval of the RACQ merger is expected to be 6% accretive to earnings per share (EPS) by FY27, which strengthens IAG's position as a leading personal line consolidator despite near-term challenges from flooding in New South Wales [3][4]. - In Malaysia, inflation has increased slightly in April, but the forecast remains for a 50 basis point rate cut in 2025, which is seen as beneficial for Malaysian banks due to low current account savings account (CASA) ratios [3][9]. - The advancement of the GENIUS Act is causing a rally in Asian crypto stocks, although there are concerns about overly optimistic projections regarding the growth of the stablecoin market [3][10]. Detailed Highlights - The IAG-RACQ merger has received approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), which is expected to solidify IAG's market share in personal lines, particularly as smaller competitors reduce home insurance commission rates [4]. - The substantial flooding in Northern New South Wales is impacting IAG's share price in the short term, with historical data indicating significant losses from similar events in the past [4][6]. - The Malaysian banking sector is experiencing a shift, with Harsh Modi upgrading PBK to Overweight while downgrading DBS to Neutral, reflecting a more favorable outlook for PBK's payout compared to DBS [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Boss Energy, indicating a positive outlook for the stock in the uranium sector [6][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant management changes in the mining sector, particularly noting the upcoming departure of Rio Tinto's CEO and the potential implications for strategic direction and M&A activity [1][9]. - The US renewables sector faces challenges due to amendments in the budget reconciliation bill that could strip ITC/PTC credits, negatively impacting companies like Hanwha Solutions and Enphase [2][9]. - JSW Steel is expected to report a 20% quarter-over-quarter growth in consolidated EBITDA, driven by higher volumes and lower coking coal costs, despite flat ASPs [14]. Detailed Highlights - **Rio Tinto**: CEO Jakob Stausholm will step down in 2025, prompting expectations for strategic changes and value unlock initiatives. The company is currently trading at a significant discount, with a target price indicating approximately 30% upside potential [9]. - **Renewables Whiplash**: The amended House reconciliation bill poses risks to the renewables sector, particularly affecting projects reliant on ITC/PTC credits. The focus now shifts to the Senate for potential adjustments [9]. - **JSW Steel**: Anticipated to show strong performance in EBITDA due to operational efficiencies and market conditions, with a focus on the implications of the Bhushan Power Asset situation [14]. - **Anglo American**: The company is executing a spin-off of its stake in Anglo American Platinum, which is valued at approximately $5.3 billion, with expectations of significant share distribution and market impact [15]. - **Boss Energy**: Following a recent pullback, the stock is upgraded to Overweight, with a new price target reflecting a 15% upside based on improved valuation metrics [18].