Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation and logistics industry Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in U.S. imports, with a 6.1% week-over-week increase as of May 18, outperforming seasonal expectations by 980 basis points and showing a 2.8% year-over-year increase [2] - Spot rates for truckload transportation have surged, with dry van rates increasing by 6.1% week-over-week, outperforming historical averages [3] - There are concerns regarding potential freight demand impacts due to tariffs, with expectations of a flat outlook for dry van spot rates in 2026 [6] Summary by Sections Import & Congestion Monitor - Container bookings from China to the U.S. are at five-year lows, down 27% compared to 2023, indicating subdued future demand [2] - The report notes a recovery in container imports at the Port of LA/LB, which increased by 24% week-over-week [2] Truckload and Rail Data - Spot rates for dry van, reefers, and flatbed have all increased week-over-week, with dry van rates now 4% higher year-over-year [3] - The dry van load-to-truck ratio increased by 57% week-over-week, indicating a tightening market [6] - Rail management teams express skepticism about the feasibility of transcontinental mergers due to regulatory barriers [7] Airfreight & Surface Transportation - Airfreight rates have been monitored closely due to tariff implications, with significant declines observed in key freight lanes, particularly the China-U.S. lane, which fell by 6% week-over-week [10] - The overall airfreight market is experiencing broad-based weakness, with all major lanes underperforming seasonal expectations year-to-date [10] Rail Performance - The report card for railroads indicates varying performance levels, with some railroads rated as excellent while others are fair or poor [9] - Regulatory challenges are highlighted as a significant barrier to potential mergers in the rail industry, with environmental impact studies being particularly burdensome [7]

Specialist Sales APAC Specialist Sales 22 May 2025 J P M O R G A N Xiaomi (N PT HK$53.20): new 3nm AP (application processor) for mobile + MTK modem – Gokul Hariharan link • Hanmi Semi (O/W, PT W100k) 1Q: key is de-escalating SK Hynix tensions – Jay Kwon link • Xiaomi (N PT HK$53.20): new 3nm AP (application processor) for mobile + MTK modem – Gokul Hariharan link • Lenovo (O/W PT -> HK$13): ISG (server) profit improvement – Albert Hung link • ASML (O/W PT EU 970): mainly receiving orders from TSMC, SK Hyni ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for BayCurrent, reflecting its long-term growth potential despite limited short-term upside [1][4]. Core Insights - The price target for December 2025 has been raised from ¥8,000 to ¥8,600, indicating a 5% upside as of May 22 [1][10]. - The consulting market is experiencing significant growth, and BayCurrent's recruitment efforts are expected to stabilize project assignments [1][9]. - The company is projected to maintain a return on equity (ROE) of at least 40% from FY2026, supported by a new capital policy that includes a dividend payout ratio of 40% and a total return ratio of about 60% [1][6]. Financial Estimates - For FY2025, revenue is forecasted to grow by 25% year-over-year to ¥144.6 billion, with operating profit increasing by 23% to ¥52.3 billion [6][8]. - The three-year compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) for sales and operating profit are expected to be around 20%, with consultant headcount growth at 17% [6][8]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 53.7% and an EBITDA margin of 36.8% for FY2026 [8][15]. Market Position and Client Trends - BayCurrent's core clients include major companies like Nissan and Honda, which together accounted for approximately 11% of sales in FY2024 [6][9]. - The report notes that concerns regarding investment by Japanese exporters due to potential US tariffs have eased, which may positively impact BayCurrent's business [6][9]. - The company is expected to benefit from synergies with NTT Group, potentially leading to increased sales contributions [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating on ASM International, indicating a positive outlook for FY25 with continuing share gains [15]. Core Insights - The European semiconductor market is showing signs of recovery, although the recovery is not as significant as typically expected due to macroeconomic uncertainties and higher than normal inventory levels [15][17]. - Infineon Technologies reported positive current trading with no signs of tariff impact, and the auto market is showing early signs of an up-cycle [15][17]. - Nokia is expected to see steady improvement, particularly in its Network Infrastructure business, with low potential tariff impact due to flexible manufacturing [15][17]. - Future's management emphasized a focus on audience growth, diversification, and monetization, with a compelling valuation narrative for a turnaround [15][17]. Summary by Sections European TMT Conference Highlights - The conference featured discussions with 11 telco management teams, highlighting key takeaways from companies such as Cellnex, Inwit, and Vodafone [15][17]. - BT Group's FY results showed a revenue of £5,049 million, slightly below consensus, with a mixed KPI performance [15][17]. Semiconductor Insights - Companies at the conference indicated that the inventory correction in the semiconductor market is nearing its end, but visibility for FY25 remains constrained [15][17]. - ASM International is optimistic about mid-term trends and has not seen changes in customer behavior due to the macro environment [15][17]. Company-Specific Feedback - Infineon Technologies expressed confidence in current trading, with no deterioration in orders despite tariffs [15][17]. - Nokia's growth in the hyperscaler market is expected to continue, aided by the integration of the Infinera sales team [15][17]. - Future's management is committed to P&L efficiency and capital allocation, setting the stage for potential value creation [15][17].

Specialist Sales APAC Specialist Sales 22 May 2025 J P M O R G A N Rio unification, ONGC miss, FMG update, Strong Refining vs Weak Crude Anmol Mehta +852 2800 8896 anmol.mehta@jpmorgan.com Key Highlights Today Commodities Price Action | Best Movers | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Ticker | Last Price | %1D | | Alumina (RMB/t) | 3230.0 | 1.5 | | LME ZINC 3MO ($) | 2710.5 | 1.3 | | Aluminium ($/t) | 2465.3 | 0.8 | | China Li2Co3 (Rmb/t) | 62500.0 | 0.6 | | US NatGas ($/mmbtu) | 3.4 | 0.2 | | Best Movers | | | Wors ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Emerging Market (EM) equities to Overweight (OW) while maintaining a cautious stance on the energy sector [4][7]. Core Insights - Nippon Steel plans to invest an additional $14 billion in U.S. Steel, with $11 billion allocated for infrastructure through 2028, raising concerns about financial health due to increased debt levels [7][10]. - Rio Tinto has formed a joint venture with Codelco to develop a lithium project in Chile, which is expected to expand its lithium strategy without impacting earnings forecasts until 2029 [6][10]. - Hindalco's upcoming report is anticipated to focus on EBITDA per tonne, with expectations of a 6% growth in Q4 compared to Q3, driven by alumina expansion [9][10]. Summary by Sections Nippon Steel - Plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel, including $4 billion for a new steel mill, contingent on regulatory approval [7]. - Concerns about financial health as debt-to-equity ratio could rise to 1.1x if the deal is fully debt-financed [7]. Rio Tinto - Joint venture with Codelco for lithium project in Salar de Maricunga, with initial funding of $350 million and potential construction costs of $500 million [6][10]. - Current lithium output forecast to grow from 75,000 tons per annum in 2024 to 460,000 tons per annum by 2029-2033 [6][10]. Hindalco - Focus on EBITDA per tonne in the upcoming report, with a forecasted 6% growth in Q4 [9][10]. - Concerns about alumina exposure, but analysis suggests limited impact on share prices [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for Denso, Aisin, and Nifco, while downgrading Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic to "Neutral" [6][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a structural increase in defense spending, with upcoming catalysts such as the NATO summit in June likely to agree on higher defense budgets [1]. - Denso's price target is lowered to ¥2,300 due to slowing earnings growth and tariff impacts, while Aisin is still viewed as a core auto parts stock despite revisions [4][8]. - Bharat Electronics is noted for stronger margins, with a revenue of ₹91.5 billion reported, slightly below expectations but with significant EBITDA growth [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Japan Auto - Denso's price target is revised down to ¥2,300 from ¥2,400, reflecting a change in growth potential due to sluggish demand for BEVs and stagnant HEV inverter sales [4][6]. - Aisin's estimates are revised down due to tariff impacts and production cuts, but it is still expected to see significant growth in electric-drive parts sales [8]. - Nifco is expected to maintain stable profit growth despite tariff uncertainties, with a lowered price target of ¥4,600 from ¥4,700 [8]. Bharat Electronics - Bharat Electronics reported revenue of ₹91.5 billion, which was 2% below JP Morgan's estimates but 3% above consensus [7]. - The EBITDA margin improved to 30.8%, significantly above expectations, indicating strong operational performance [7]. Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic - Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic's estimates are cut by approximately 9% on average, with a downgrade to "Neutral" due to balancing growth prospects with ramp-up costs and trade policy uncertainties [8]. - The company is currently trading at a P/E of 35x/30x for FY25/26E, reflecting a balanced view amid opportunities and challenges [8]. General Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment remains strong for Bharat Electronics, driven by expectations of benefiting from increased Indian defense spending [8]. - The report highlights the importance of strategic initiatives such as factory automation and production shifts to Mexico for maintaining competitiveness in the US market [8].

Investment Rating - ASPEED: Overweight (O/W) with revised 2Q revenue guidance [3][4] - SHIFT: Upgraded to Overweight (O/W) with price target raised to Y1,900 [5] - Silicon Motion (SIMO): Gaining market share in client SSDs and mobile controllers [6] Core Insights - ASPEED has revised its 2Q revenue guidance upward to NT$1.9-2 billion from NT$1.7-1.8 billion, driven by robust demand in CSP across China and the US [4] - The company anticipates a slowdown in 2H due to limited visibility in 4Q, projecting a 15% revenue increase for FY25 [4] - SHIFT is making good progress in project assignments for newly hired talent, indicating strong operational momentum [5] - SIMO is breaking into enterprise and automotive sectors, with expectations of continued share gains in mobile controllers and SSDs [6] Detailed Highlights - ASPEED expects to regain market share from Intel's Oak Stream with the AST2700, supported by a shortened launch schedule and enhanced security features [4] - The company is targeting 3-4 million mini-BMC shipments for FY25, with a forecast of 300-400k PFR chips for Tier-2 customers [4] - SHIFT's enterprise controller is set to ramp in 2H25, with confirmed design wins from Tier-1 customers in the US and China [9] - SIMO aims to increase its client SSD market share from 30% to 40% over the next three years, driven by new product roadmaps [9] - The automotive sector is projected to contribute over 10% of revenue for FY26-27, with design wins from major automotive manufacturers [9] - NVDA's Computex keynote highlighted advancements in ASIC integration and the introduction of new products like CuLitho and GB200 [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for LVMH is Neutral with a price target of €650.00 by December 2026 [2][17]. Core Insights - LVMH is a leader in the global Luxury Fashion & Leather Goods market, with notable brands such as Louis Vuitton and Dior. However, there are signs of normalization in consumer demand and momentum, particularly in the Fashion & Leather Goods segment, which experienced its worst performance in Q3 2024 (excluding COVID) [9][17]. - The report indicates that the leather goods category may be experiencing fatigue after years of exceptional demand, suggesting that even a sector leader like LVMH may not be immune to broader market trends [9][17]. Summary by Sections Sales Forecasts - Q1 2025 sales are expected to show a 1% increase (ex-FX) compared to Q4 2024, with Fashion & Leather Goods sales projected to decline by 1% [1][7]. - The report anticipates a 4% decline in Wines & Spirits sales (ex-FX) for Q1 2025, with cognac sales expected to drop by 7% [7][13]. Financial Estimates - Revenue estimates for FY25 have been revised down from €88,850 million to €87,260 million, reflecting a 2% decrease. FY26 estimates have also been adjusted down from €93,487 million to €91,978 million [3][16]. - Adjusted EPS for FY25 is now forecasted at €26.34, down from €26.76, while FY26 is revised to €29.71 from €29.98 [3][16]. Performance Metrics - The report highlights a year-over-year revenue growth of -1.7% for FY24, with a projected recovery to 3.0% in FY25 and 5.4% in FY26 [21]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to improve slightly from 32.3% in FY24 to 32.8% in FY25 [21]. Valuation Methodology - The price target of €650.00 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology, utilizing a '26e EV/EBIT multiple for Wines & Spirits in line with sector averages and a 30% premium for Louis Vuitton [10][18].

Investment Rating - The report places BYD on a Positive Catalyst Watch with an Overweight (OW) rating and a price target of HK$475.00 for December 2025 [2][6][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights two major trends for 2025: the rising adoption of advanced autonomous driving (AD) solutions and the expansion of Chinese brands in overseas markets, particularly as foreign competitors face challenges from US tariffs [2][21]. - BYD's earnings estimates for 2025 are approximately 10% above consensus, indicating strong growth potential [2][21]. - The report anticipates that BYD's global deliveries will reach 6.5 million units by 2026, with around 1.5 million units coming from overseas markets, leading to an increase in global market share from 3% in 2023 to 7% in 2026 [21][22]. Summary by Sections Advanced Autonomous Driving (AD) Solutions - BYD is expected to showcase its latest navigation on autopilot (NOA) solutions, which will significantly reduce the bill of materials (BOM) costs for both city and highway NOA features [5][8]. - The BOM for city NOA is projected to decrease from approximately Rmb20,000 in 2024 to Rmb10,000-15,000 in 2025, while highway NOA costs are expected to drop from Rmb4,000-5,000 to around Rmb3,000 [7][8]. Overseas Market Expansion - BYD plans to complete assembly plants in Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, and Hungary by the end of 2025, which will enhance its production capacity and help mitigate tariff impacts through localization [5][21]. - The report forecasts that Chinese brands, including BYD, could double their overseas market share to approximately 12% by 2030 [5][21]. Financial Projections - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation for BYD, estimating a total equity value of Rmb1,284,233 million, translating to a price of HK$475 [15][16]. - Key assumptions include a 13x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the EV battery segment and a 1.4x price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for NEV manufacturing, reflecting BYD's potential for a re-rating driven by global expansion [15][22].