October 17, 2024 08:59 AM GMT M Update TSMC | Asia Pacific Strong 3Q24 gross margin and AI semi demand; OW Reaction to earnings Strengthens our investment thesis Meaningful upside Meaningful revision higher Impact to our investment thesis Financial results versus consensus Impact to next 12-month consensus EPS Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research TSMC 3Q24 EPS was NT$12.54, 10% above our forecast. Gross margin was 57.8%, well above our and consensus' forecasts of around 55%. TSMC guided 4Q24 revenu ...

M Update TMT Credit Research | North America October 17, 2024 10:05 PM GMT NFLX Credit: 'Starting 5' Takeaways from Earnings Key Takeaways NFLX kicked off earnings within our IG TMT coverage, posting YoY revenue growth in mid-teens area for 3Q reported and 4Q guide (and low-teens for '25) 3Q global streaming paid net adds came in a bit stronger than consensus, bringing base >280mn; company is guiding to higher adds in 4Q vs. 3Q due to seasonality and slate 3Q FCF ($2.2bn) exceeded share rep. ($1.7bn); FY FC ...

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Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3][4][5] Core Views - The report highlights three key remaining issues in China's economy: demand shortfall, fiscal challenges, and the debate between investment and consumption [4] - Recent policy easing measures are expected to help stabilize the property market but face challenges in boosting prices and restoring demand [4] - The property sector's drag on demand will likely result in economic growth falling short of targets [4] - Over-reliance on investment to fill demand gaps may lead to persistent overcapacity and deflationary pressures [4] - Consumption is a viable alternative growth driver but measures to boost it have been limited so far [4] Property Market Analysis - Recent property easing measures may help prevent further price declines but property activity will continue to drag on economic growth [12] - The property market tone shift is seen as meaningful support for sustained improvement in home sales [12] - Housing inventory remains high with 43 million units in primary and secondary markets and 8 million units under construction [12] - Inventory reduction will take considerable time given the current sales run rate of 8 million units annually [12] - Reducing new housing construction will further weigh on property fixed asset investment and create additional demand gaps [13] Fiscal Situation - Fiscal expansion is constrained by deflationary pressures and already high public debt levels [21] - Land sale revenues have shrunk by about one-third since 2021 peak, putting pressure on local government finances [22] - Tax revenue growth has slowed significantly, with 3-month average growth at -5.9% in August compared to 6.2% average in 2016-19 [22] - A supplementary budget of RMB 1-2 trillion is expected to be approved, potentially expanding the augmented fiscal deficit by 1.6% of GDP [27] Growth Composition Debate - Over-reliance on investment as a growth driver continues to create overcapacity and exacerbate deflationary pressures [30] - China's investment-to-GDP ratio at 41% is significantly higher than Japan's 32% in 1993 [30] - GDP deflator has averaged -0.6% over the past five quarters, worse than Japan's +1.6% in 1990-94 [30] - Shifting to consumption-driven growth could help alleviate deflationary pressures and normalize nominal GDP growth [31] Economic Indicators - Manufacturing and infrastructure FAI grew at 8% and 6.2% respectively, while property FAI declined by 10.2% [17] - Retail sales growth was 2.1%, significantly lower than investment growth rates [17] - Industrial, infrastructure and service loans increased by RMB 7.6 trillion since Q2 2019, offsetting RMB 6.4 trillion decline in property loans [17]

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： China Railway Group (0390.HK, 390 HK) Stock Rating Overweight Industry View Attractive Price target HK$6.20 Shr price, close (Oct 10, 2024) HK$4.25 52-Week Range HK$5.12-3.06 Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 4,525 Mkt cap, curr (mn) Rmb149,623 EV, curr (mn) Rmb314,288 Avg daily trading value (mn) HK$90 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： M Idea China Railway Group ...

更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 M Update | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...