Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Insights - The real estate industry is facing significant challenges, with a continuous decline in added value since 2022, projected to reach 8.46 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9% [28] - The contribution of the real estate sector to GDP growth is expected to be -2.46% in 2024, indicating a substantial drag on overall economic growth [28] - The report highlights a shift in policy direction towards stimulating housing consumption and stabilizing the real estate market, particularly after September 2024 [43][46] - A comprehensive set of policies has been implemented to support the real estate market, including lowering mortgage rates, reducing down payment ratios, and increasing financial support for housing projects [51] Summary by Sections Part 1: Macroeconomic Background - Economic pressures are increasing, with GDP growth expected to slow to 5.0% in 2024 from 5.4% in 2023, driven by declining investment and consumption [6] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise, leading to decreased consumer spending and a weakening of overall demand [9] - Fiscal pressures are evident, with tax revenue growth stagnating and reliance on bond issuance to support economic stability [11] Part 2: Real Estate Development Trends in 2024 - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with total investment in real estate development expected to decline by 9.6% in 2024, and new construction area down by 22.5% [58] - The report notes a shift in policy focus towards stimulating housing demand and stabilizing the market, with various measures introduced to support homebuyers and developers [43][46] - The average land transaction price in 2024 is projected to decrease by 8.2%, reflecting a broader trend of declining land sales across different city tiers [61] Part 3: Market Trends and Opportunities in 2025 - The report anticipates that the real estate sector will need to play a crucial role in stabilizing the economy in 2025, with ongoing policy support aimed at revitalizing the market [35] - The introduction of a "white list" system for projects is expected to enhance market confidence and facilitate the completion of stalled developments [48] - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing transaction costs and improving housing supply mechanisms to stimulate demand in the real estate market [48]

2024年上海租赁住房市场年报 Tospur Real Estate Consulting Co., Ltd. 代理 · 咨询 · 金融 · 商业 · 产业 · 公关 · 养老 目录 01 02 03 一、政策及宏观经济分析 二、上海集中式公寓市场分析 三、上海散租市场分析 CONTENTS 政策面：加快保租房供给，"金融支持+存量改造"双管齐下 自2016年起，住房租赁市场进入加速发展期。2021年，中央提出发展保障性租赁住房，以保租房发展为核心，住房租赁政策 支持体系逐渐完善。近两年，中央政策聚焦保租房建设筹集、金融支持、存量房转换等方面，推进住房租赁行业发展 存量改造 金融支持 政策 支持 资金 支持 2024 9.30 政策面：收储用作配租配售，"以购代建"模式逐步推进 2024年"517地产新政"将租赁住房贷款支持计划并入保障性住房再贷款，设立3000亿元支持地方国企收购已建成未出售商品 房，用作配售型或配租型保障性住房，并扩大适用范围至全国。金融支持下的"以购代建"模式将逐步成为保租房房源的新兴 方向 收储存量房配租配售政策（以购代建） 维度 保障性住房再贷款 （最新政策） 发布时间 2024年5 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Shanghai rental housing market, with a rental yield dropping to 1.6% in October, reflecting a decline in both rental prices and transaction volumes [3][75]. Core Insights - The Shanghai rental market experienced a "volume and price drop" in October, with rental yields decreasing to 1.6% [3][75]. - Economic indicators have shown signs of recovery due to various policies, but overall pressure remains on the market [3][12]. - The rental market is characterized by a significant increase in supply, while demand has weakened, leading to increased discounts and promotional offers to attract tenants [5][41]. Policy and Macro Economic Analysis - In October, various policies were introduced to support the rental housing market, including measures to increase the supply of affordable housing and optimize housing fund withdrawal policies [8][9]. - The urban unemployment rate decreased to 5.0%, indicating a slight improvement in the job market, which may help stabilize rental prices [17]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for rental housing in Shanghai remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.3% [19]. Shanghai Concentrated Apartment Market Analysis - In October, 13 new concentrated apartment projects were launched, totaling approximately 14,000 units, indicating a focus on large-scale projects [29][30]. - The average rental price for institutional-operated long-term apartments was around 3.6 yuan per square meter per day, reflecting a seasonal decline [33][35]. Shanghai Scattered Rental Market Analysis - The scattered rental market saw a total of 45,000 transactions in October, a month-on-month decrease of 6.4%, with an average rental price of 4,950 yuan per month [41][42]. - The rental price per square meter dropped to 2.29 yuan per day, with an increase in negotiation space to 7.13% [41][43]. - The rental demand in Shanghai has been consistently low, with a rental activity index of 495, down 29.6% year-on-year and 10.3% month-on-month [22][23].