机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：林起贤/夏嘉励 事件： 公司25H1 实现营收18.2 亿元，同比增长12.3%；调整后归母净利润4.7 亿元，同比增长71.3%（此前预 告为65-72%增长，接近预告区间上限）。 增设中期分红，现金派发每股0.045 港元中期股息。 投资要点： 从MAU 看，当前重点拓展的生产力场景及海外增长较快。根据公司财报，25H1 整体MAU为2.8 亿，同 比增长8.5%；分场景，生活场景应用（toC）同比增长7.5%，生产力工具（toB）同比增长21.1%；分区 域，国内同比增长5.2%，海外同比增长15.3%。 付费用户增长加速。根据公司财报，25H1 期末付费用户1540 万，同比增长42%；本期净增280 万 （24H1/24H2 净增分别为170 万/180 万）。对应付费率5.5%，环比提升0.8pct（24H1/H2 均环比提升 0.5pct）。分场景，生活付费率5.3%，生产力付费率7.8%。基于期初期末付费用户算，月ARPPU 为 16.1%，同比增长3%。 聚焦核心业务，非核心业务收缩。根据公司财报，25H1 影像与设计产品收入同比增长45%，收入占比 已提升至74 ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：张潇丹/肖楷/赵丽萍 考虑到短期内宏观环境带来的逆风仍存，下调2025 年收入预测19%至15.9 亿元，考虑到公司的毛利改 善和成本控制，上调调整后归母净利润预测36%至5,575 万元。引入2026 年业绩预测：预计收入为17.5 亿元，调整后归母净利润为1.1 亿元。维持跑赢行业评级，考虑到公司订阅收入呈企稳态势、利润端和 现金流情况持续改善、行业估值中枢上行，维持目标价2.8 港元（基于5 倍2025 年市销率）。公司目前 交易于4 倍2025 年市销率，我们的目标价较当前股价有15%的上行空间。 风险 行业竞争加剧；宏观经济景气度下行。 订阅解决方案环比企稳，商家解决方案净返点率改善。2025 年上半年，微盟订阅解决方案收入4.4 亿 元，同比下滑10.1%，环比企稳，公司削减质量较低的业务，缩减小微商户的投入，导致递延收入同比 减少约3000 万元。 智慧零售收入2.9 亿元，同比下降6.1%，主要受到外部宏观环境的逆风影响，其中品牌商户1,227 家， 品牌商户的每用户平均订单收入为17.9 万元，保持相对稳定。同时，公司披露上半年AI 相关收入录得 3,400 万元，W ...

"二五"战略夯实内功，关注公司后续现金流表现及股东回报。在面临行业和经济环境挑战的背景下，公 司表示将继续推动战略转型、夯实内功，构建系统组织能力；坚持业务、服务意识、服务模式、团队能 力及组织等转型，通过提升服务品质、优化成本结构、强化团队能力，在政策持续规范化、以及持续的 市场竞争中保证竞争力。我们认为在盈利承压的背景下，公司的经营性现金流表现与股东回报是影响后 续公司股价的核心因素之一，建议投资者持续关注经营性现金流及分红派息表现。 盈利预测与估值 机构：中金公司 研究员：王翼羽/程坚/张宇 1H25 业绩低于市场预期 公司公布1H25 业绩：收入同比增长3%至34.6 亿元，归母净利润同比下跌19%至2.1 亿元，低于市场预 期，主要系核心业务毛利率下滑及应收账款减值拨备增加等因素所致。公司拟每股分派中期股息0.095 港元，派息比例70%（普通派息50%、特别派息20%），中期派息对应股息率4.4%。 第三方外拓延续较好势头。2025 年上半年公司第三方外拓对应年化合约金额约8.7 亿元，在去年同期高 基数的背景下创半年历史新高（同比增长9%），公司持续推进战略聚焦核心区域、3 个区域公司拓展 半年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth and has raised its full-year revenue guidance, reflecting confidence in the industry and its own future development [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 750 million yuan, up 52.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company's gross margin reached 36.1% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved capacity utilization and operational efficiency [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Orders - The company's global market share is expected to rise to 22.2% by the first half of 2025, supported by a backlog of unfulfilled orders amounting to 1.33 billion USD, which is a 57.9% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company signed 37 new iCMC projects in the first half of 2025, setting a historical record, with new order amounts increasing by 48.4% year-on-year [1]. Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Growth Strategy - The company plans to increase long-term capital expenditures, with cumulative capital spending expected to exceed 7 billion yuan by 2029, focusing on expanding domestic and international production capacity [2]. - The company is actively developing new ADC and XDC businesses, completing over 2,300 early-stage research projects in the first half of 2025, with a significant portion focused on differentiated targets and new indications [2]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1.29, 1.78, and 2.45 yuan, respectively, reflecting the company's strong growth potential as a leader in the global ADC CRDMO market [3]. - A target price of 65.82 HKD has been set using the DCF valuation method, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the company's long-term development potential [3].

考虑到上半年业绩和近期的销售趋势，该行小幅上调2025年收入预测1%，但下调2026至27年收入预测 2%至4%；基于更加保守的利润率假设，下调2025至27年调整后净利润预测13%至14%，至28亿至40亿 元。该行对其目标价由46.42港元上调至48.7港元，维持"买入"评级。 交银国际发表研报指，名创优品上半年收入按年增长21.1%至93.9亿元，其中次季按年增长23.1%，超过 此前指引，由海外市场和Top Toy推动；经调整净利润按年微增3%至12.8亿元，次季经调整净利润率按 季改善至13.9%，但仍低于去年同期，受到海外直营店投入的影响。名创优品上调全年整体收入增长指 引至超过25%，内地门店的同店销售全年有望实现按年正增长，并预期全年经调整经营利润将达36.5亿 至38.5亿元，对应按年增长7%至13%。 ...

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 2.701 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 62.2%, and an adjusted net profit (excluding interest income and expenses) of 733 million yuan, up 69.6% [1] - The total amount of uncompleted orders reached 1.329 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.9%, with North America accounting for over half of this total [1] - The company signed 37 new iCMC projects and won 13 iCMC projects in H1 2025, with a total of 563 clients, reflecting a 64% increase [1] Group 2 - The company plans to invest 1.56 billion yuan in capital expenditures in 2025, with total capital expenditures expected to exceed 7 billion yuan by 2029 to expand domestic and international production capacity [2] - The new production facility in Wuxi is fully operational, and the new park is expected to be operational by May 2025, with sufficient order reserves [2] - The company expects Non-GAAP net profits of 1.696 billion yuan, 2.199 billion yuan, and 2.908 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 41, 32, and 24 times [3]

我们预计公司25/26/27 年EPS 分别为1.30/1.85/2.57 元。我们采用PE 估值方法，考虑到公司业绩增速强 劲、收入长期增速有望超过行业平均增速，我们给予公司2025 年PE 倍数50 倍，目标价每股64.92元人 民币，按照港币兑人民币汇率0.92 计算，折合目标价每股70.56港元，维持"增持"评级。 公司分子漏斗项目数不断扩大，新签订单保持快速增长。2025 年上半年，公司新签37 个综合项目，新 增了3 个PPQ 项目，综合项目总数增长至225 个（+58 个），其中IND 后项目总数增长至2025年6 月30 日的103 个（+27 个）。公司未完成订单总额达13.29 亿美元，同比增长57.9%，北美地区占总未完成订 单的一半以上，新签合同金额同比增长48.4%，其中北美地区增速超过其他地区。 机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：余文心/周航/陈铭/吴晗 本报告导读： 药明合联业绩持续保持高速增长，预计到2029 年药明合联资本开支将超过70 亿元人民币，除现有及已 规划的产能外，预计将在现有的偶联制剂和载荷连接子产能基础上实现翻倍，彰显公司长期发展信心。 投资要点： 长期CAPEX 持 ...

Core Viewpoints - WuXi AppTec achieved revenue of 2.7 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 62%, and an adjusted net profit of 800 million yuan, reflecting a 50% increase [1][2] - The company signed 37 new comprehensive projects in H1 2025, bringing the total to 225 projects, including 11 PPQ projects and 1 commercialization project, laying a solid foundation for future growth [1][2] - The global ADC market is expected to continue growing, with the company poised to maintain rapid growth due to expanding market share [1][4] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a gross profit of 980 million yuan, an increase of 82% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 36.1%, up by 4 percentage points [2][3] - The net profit for H1 2025 was 750 million yuan, a 53% increase year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit (excluding interest income and expenses) reached 730 million yuan, marking a 70% growth [2][3] - As of June 30, 2025, the company had unfulfilled orders worth 1.33 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 58% [1][2] Project and Market Development - The company’s revenue from IND pre-stage projects was 1.12 billion yuan (41%), while IND post-stage revenue was 1.58 billion yuan (59%) in H1 2025 [3] - North America accounted for 1.39 billion yuan of revenue in H1 2025, increasing its share from 49% in H1 2024 to 52%, while revenue from China decreased from 26% to 18% [3] - The company signed a record number of new projects in H1 2025, with a total of 858 drug discovery projects completed, including 59 projects transitioning from drug discovery to CMC [3] Capacity Expansion and Operational Efficiency - The new facility in Wuxi began operations in May 2025, and the DP3 formulation workshop started GMP operations in July 2025 [3] - The company is accelerating capacity expansion, with plans for new production lines to be launched every six months, aiming to double the production capacity of conjugated formulations and payload linkers by 2029 [3][5] - Capital expenditure for 2025 is projected at 1.56 billion yuan, with significant investments in the Wuxi and Singapore facilities [3][5] Future Outlook - The global ADC market is projected to reach 66.2 billion USD by 2030, indicating strong growth potential for the company [4] - The company expects to achieve over 45% revenue growth for the full year of 2025, driven by a robust pipeline and increasing market share [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are estimated at 6.01 billion yuan, 7.82 billion yuan, and 9.70 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 48%, 30%, and 24% [6]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that NetEase Cloud Music's profitability in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, primarily driven by a one-time tax benefit and improved operating profit margins [1] Revenue Forecast - The company has reduced its revenue forecasts for NetEase Cloud Music by 11% and 10.9% for the next two years due to a decreased focus on non-strategic live streaming business [1] Profitability Outlook - Despite the revenue forecast reduction, Daiwa has raised its net profit predictions for the next two years by 117% and 42%, citing anticipated growth in gross margins for online music services and lower-than-expected marketing expenses [1] Rating and Target Price - Daiwa maintains a "Outperform" rating for NetEase Cloud Music, increasing the target price from HKD 105 to HKD 310, which corresponds to a 27 times earnings forecast for 2026 [1]

业绩基本符合市场预期 机构：中金公司 研究员：樊优/姚泽宇 风险 市场竞争加剧，宏观经济不确定性，海外展业不及预期，监管趋严风险。 AI 赋能提升运营效率，有效财务管理改善盈利能力；关注全球布局进展。 得益于AI 在各业务条线的更广泛应用，1H25 销售、行政及研发开支合计同比-19%，营业利润同比+3% 至5,880 万元。此外，公司积极升级股权结构及优化财务成本，1H25 融资成本同比-53%，推动税前利 润同比+24%至4,511 万元。公司在美国取得联邦支付牌照和亚利桑那州州级支付牌照，在日本获得日本 经济产业省的正式批准、授权展开线上线下扫码收单业务，公司预计将持续拓展于全球主要经济体的版 图。 盈利预测与估值 考虑费率回升及利润率改善，小幅上调25 年调整后EBITDA 3%至3.9 亿元、基本维持26 年调整后 EBITDA 4.4 亿元。公司当前交易于14x/10.5x25e/26e EV/EBITDA；考虑收入利润改善、市场情绪改 善，上调目标价65%至15.7 港币，对应17x/13x 25e/26e EV/EBITDA 及20%上行空间；维持跑赢行业评 级。 移卡1H25 总收入同比+4 ...