Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong positive impact of personal initiative training on entrepreneurial success, suggesting a favorable investment outlook for programs that incorporate such training methodologies [10][48]. Core Insights - Personal initiative training in Togo resulted in an average increase of $91 in monthly profits after seven years, which is a 52% increase over the control mean [10][33]. - The training had a lasting impact on men, with their profits increasing by $148 after seven years, while the impact for women diminished to $39, indicating a significant gender disparity in long-term outcomes [11][35]. - The study highlights that traditional business training did not yield statistically significant long-term impacts, contrasting sharply with the sustained benefits of personal initiative training [10][48]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the importance of evaluating the long-term impacts of business training programs, particularly in developing countries, where short-term evaluations are common [7][8]. Experimental Design and Personal Initiative Training - The study involved 1,500 small business entrepreneurs in Togo, with a focus on those operating outside agriculture and not formally registered [12][13]. - The personal initiative training program aimed to foster a proactive entrepreneurial mindset, contrasting with traditional business training that focused on standard business practices [17][18]. Long-Term Follow-up Impacts - The survival rate of businesses was high, with 88% in the control group and 91% in the personal initiative training group still operational after seven years [30][31]. - The report shows that the personal initiative training group experienced significant increases in profits and sales, with a cumulative gain of over $6,900 over 7.5 years, representing a return of over 900% on the training cost [33][48]. Gender Heterogeneity in Treatment Impacts - Initial impacts of personal initiative training were similar for both men and women, but long-term effects diverged significantly, with men experiencing sustained growth while women's profits converged back towards the control group [34][41]. - The report suggests that women may face industry-specific constraints and redirect their entrepreneurial efforts towards household needs, limiting their long-term business growth [42][47]. Discussion and Conclusions - The findings indicate that personal initiative training is particularly effective for men, suggesting a need for complementary interventions for women to enhance their long-term business outcomes [49].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - The inclusion of usufruct rights in household wealth estimates significantly impacts wealth distribution, particularly benefiting younger households and reducing wealth concentration indices by approximately 1 percentage point [2][35] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - Household wealth is a crucial indicator of economic well-being and stability, providing insights beyond income alone [8][9] - Wealth data is essential for assessing disparities in asset ownership and informing policy initiatives aimed at reducing inequality [9][10] 2. General Reflections on Use Rights - Traditional wealth estimates often overlook partial rights like usufruct, leading to a distorted understanding of wealth distribution [11][12] - Usufruct allows individuals to use and enjoy property owned by others, which should be included in wealth assessments [14][15] 3. The Data - The report utilizes data from the Bank of Italy's Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), which has been conducted since the 1960s [18] - The share of households living in usufruct is relatively stable, averaging around 3 percent over the years [20] 4. Taking Account of Use Rights in Italy - Adjusting wealth estimates to include usufruct rights leads to an increase in net wealth values, particularly for younger households [28] - The Gini index shows a reduction in wealth concentration, indicating a more equitable distribution of wealth [29][30] 5. Free Residential Houses in HFCS Data - The report highlights the prevalence of free residential houses in various countries, with implications for wealth inequality [31][32] 6. Conclusions - The findings emphasize the importance of including usufruct in wealth estimates, as it significantly affects wealth distribution and concentration indices [35][36] - The analysis suggests that similar studies in countries with more widespread use rights could yield even greater impacts on wealth estimates [37]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under review. Core Insights - Photovoltaic-powered groundwater pumping presents a transformative solution for water services in underserved areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, but without proper regulation, it risks overexploiting groundwater resources, threatening groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) [4][41] - The study indicates that 92% of Sub-Saharan Africa's GDEs are at risk of overexploitation if photovoltaic water pumping is implemented without adequate controls, particularly in Southern and Eastern Africa [4][41] - Regions like southern Nigeria and South Sudan are identified as priorities for potential photovoltaic water pumping system investments due to their higher groundwater development needs and lower risks to GDEs [4][41] Summary by Sections Introduction - Access to electricity and clean water are critical development priorities in Sub-Saharan Africa, where 600 million people lack electricity and 400 million lack safely managed drinking water [8] - The advancement of photovoltaic technologies has lowered costs, enabling potential expansion of solar pumping for irrigation [8] Data - The study utilizes various datasets, including global horizontal irradiance, static water level, aquifer transmissivity, groundwater storage, population density, and renewable groundwater resources to assess risks to GDEs [15][19] Methodology - The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is employed to evaluate the risk of overexploitation of GDEs due to uncontrolled access to groundwater through photovoltaic pumping [19][21] Results - The analysis reveals that 92% of GDEs are at risk of overexploitation, with significant risks identified in western South Africa, Namibia, Kenya, Niger, and Somalia [27][30] - The findings highlight the need for targeted investments and close monitoring in regions with high risks to GDEs, such as Namibia and South Africa, while prioritizing areas with high groundwater development needs and lower risks [31][41] Policy Implications - The report emphasizes the importance of sustainable groundwater management and the need for enforceable policies to protect GDEs from the adverse effects of photovoltaic water pumping [40][41] - It suggests that better mapping and monitoring of GDEs are essential for understanding their value and ensuring their protection [40][41] Conclusion - The study underscores the necessity for careful planning and regulation in the deployment of photovoltaic water pumping systems to mitigate risks to GDEs while addressing the urgent need for water access in Sub-Saharan Africa [41][42]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in tax policy reforms across OECD countries, indicating a trend towards increasing tax rates and broadening tax bases in response to economic challenges and the need for additional revenues [13][15][16] - Policymakers are balancing the need for increased domestic resources with the necessity of providing tax relief to alleviate the cost-of-living crisis affecting households and businesses [14][19] - The trend of decreasing corporate income tax (CIT) rates has halted, with more jurisdictions implementing rate increases for the first time since 2015, reflecting a need for additional revenues and equity within the tax system [16][63] - Significant progress has been made towards implementing the Global Minimum Tax (GMT), with 60 jurisdictions taking steps towards its introduction [16] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Background - Global GDP growth was estimated at 3.1% in 2023, with many economies affected by high inflation and geopolitical tensions [23] - The unemployment rate in OECD countries was 4.9% at the end of 2023, indicating a stable labor market despite economic challenges [30] - Public debt rose to 113% of GDP for the OECD as a whole in 2023, with government deficits increasing again due to the energy crisis [36] Tax Revenue Context - The average tax-to-GDP ratio across OECD countries decreased by 0.15 percentage points to 34.0% in 2022, with significant variations in tax revenue sources [43][45] - High-income countries saw a rise in corporate income tax revenues driven by heightened profits, particularly in the energy sector [43] Tax Policy Reforms - The report documents tax reforms introduced or announced in 2023 across 90 jurisdictions, showing a trend towards increasing rates and broadening bases [13][59] - Personal income tax (PIT) reforms focused on supporting low- and middle-income households, while social security contributions (SSCs) have seen increases in many jurisdictions [17][66] - VAT relief measures on energy products are slowing, with some jurisdictions increasing their standard VAT rates [19][67]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for natural gas as a necessary component in the transition to a renewable energy grid, indicating a supportive investment environment for gas infrastructure and technology development [2][11][44]. Core Insights - The transition to wind and solar energy is accelerating, but these variable renewable energy (VRE) sources introduce significant reliability challenges that cannot be fully addressed by current storage technologies [2][5][6]. - Natural gas is positioned as a critical bridge fuel that can provide the necessary reliability during the transition to a predominantly renewable energy grid, especially in the face of seasonal and unpredictable energy supply variations [2][11][44]. - The report outlines a phased approach to the energy transition, emphasizing the need for regulatory support and technological innovation to manage the variability associated with increasing VRE penetration [2][10][34]. Summary by Sections Key Takeaways - Wind and solar are rapidly displacing coal but introduce variability that could compromise grid reliability [2]. - Seasonal storage technologies like hydrogen and pumped hydro are not viable alternatives in the near term, making natural gas essential for reliability [2][11]. - The Department of Energy (DOE) should focus on developing seasonal storage technologies and advanced modeling to address future grid challenges [3][11]. Introduction - The share of U.S. electricity from VRE is growing quickly, with projections indicating that VRE could exceed 40% of electricity generation by 2030 [5][15]. - Variability in electricity supply is becoming a significant challenge, necessitating solutions beyond short-duration storage [5][6]. The Challenge of Variable Renewable Energy - The transition to a VRE-dominated grid will require addressing predictable and unpredictable energy deficits, with significant implications for grid management [6][20][34]. - The report identifies three phases of grid evolution, each with distinct challenges and requirements for energy supply management [7][26]. Mitigating the Variability Problem - Energy storage is a potential long-term solution, but current technologies are insufficient for long-duration needs [35][55]. - Demand management and better grid integration are also highlighted as important strategies to address variability [35][36]. Gas and Phase II of the Energy Transition - Natural gas currently provides about 25% of U.S. electricity and is expected to play a crucial role in managing VRE variability as the grid transitions [44][46]. - Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) are identified as a reliable source of energy that can adapt to changing grid demands [44][46]. Beyond Phase II: Long-Duration Storage Technologies - The report discusses the need for long-duration energy storage (VLDES) technologies that can effectively address seasonal and annual variability [55][56]. - Current storage technologies are not yet capable of meeting the long-duration needs required for a fully decarbonized grid [55][57].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the automotive mobility industry. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift away from the idealized CASE (Connected, Autonomous, Shared, Electric) future, with a more realistic outlook focusing on connected, assisted, and private mobility rather than fully autonomous and shared models [4][5][8]. - The report highlights significant divergence in automotive trends between mature markets (US, Europe, North Asia) and dynamic, price-sensitive markets in the rest of Asia and the Middle East [4][5]. Mobility Profile & Car Ownership - Global car ownership is increasing, contrary to earlier predictions of decline, driven by economic growth in developing markets and the necessity of car ownership in areas with limited public transport [12][18]. - Younger demographics expect car ownership to remain important, while older individuals in mature markets anticipate a shift towards reduced car ownership as they age [19][20]. New Mobility Services - There is no significant trend away from personal car ownership; many respondents still view it as essential, particularly in regions lacking robust public transport [25][26]. - Flexibility and cost are the primary drivers for adopting new mobility services, with a notable percentage of respondents indicating they would not give up their cars under any circumstances [35][36]. Autonomous Driving - Trust in autonomous driving technology has not significantly increased over the past five years, with safety concerns remaining a major barrier to acceptance [38][42]. - The level of acceptance varies by income and location, with urban high-income respondents showing more positive attitudes towards autonomous vehicles compared to those in Europe and the US [41][42]. Alternative Drivetrains & Charging Infrastructure - The number of new registrations for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) reached 14 million in 2023, indicating robust growth in electric vehicle markets [49][50]. - Despite the growth, challenges such as higher upfront costs and concerns about battery life and charging infrastructure continue to hinder broader adoption of electric vehicles [61][63].

Industry Overview - Minimum wages are a critical component of social protection systems, aiming to protect vulnerable workers and reduce poverty and wage inequality, but poor design can lead to risks such as reduced job opportunities for low-skilled and young workers [2] - Romania has experienced significant real growth in minimum wages over the past decade, with the minimum-to-median wage ratio increasing from 38% in 2007 to 60% in 2017, placing it among the top EU countries in this metric [15] - The minimum wage in Romania is higher than the living wage needed to cover a basic food basket but insufficient to include non-food components, which could lead to long-term job losses, especially for younger workers [2] Labor Market Dynamics - The minimum wage increase in Romania has varying impacts across regions and sectors, with the accommodation and food services sector and the Suceava region being the most affected due to the high proportion of minimum wage earners [2] - Male employees are more affected by minimum wage increases than female employees, and younger workers face higher risks of job loss [2] - The share of minimum wage earners in Romania is consistently high, ranging from 24% to 28% between 2020 and 2021, with 2% of employees earning below the minimum wage threshold [84] Sectoral Impact - The construction sector has the highest proportion of minimum wage earners at 54.6%, followed by accommodation and food services at over 50%, while sectors like electricity, gas, and steam have less than 2% of employees earning minimum wages [91][92] - Microenterprises have the highest proportion of minimum wage earners at 67%, while large enterprises have only 6% of employees earning minimum wages, reflecting the trend that average wages increase with firm size [93][94] Policy Implications - Linking the minimum wage to inflation could result in moderate employment losses, particularly in the long term, with younger workers experiencing the most significant adverse effects [109] - Aligning the minimum wage with a living wage estimate could lead to substantial short-term wage increases but may also cause notable job losses, especially among low-wage and younger workers [118] - The minimum wage increase has a more substantial positive impact on income inequality when aligned with a living wage estimate, with the Gini index decreasing from 0.356 to 0.344 and the bottom 50% income share increasing by 0.7 percentage points [123] Demographic and Regional Variations - The youngest and oldest age groups are most affected by minimum wage increases, with 43% of workers born in 2001 earning minimum wages compared to 27% of those born in 1994 [95] - Regional disparities are significant, with Suceava county having the highest proportion of minimum wage earners at 38%, nearly double that of Sibiu county at 21% [96]

D BANK GROUP TIMOR-LESTE ECONOMIC REPORT Leveraging WTO Accession for Economic Transformation July 2024 blic Disclosure Auth ublic Disclosure Authoriz olic Disclosure Authori olic Disclosure Authorize © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily ...

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