Global Quantative & Derivatives Strategy August 27, 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan China Equity Flow Monitor Xipu HanAC +852 2800 1029 xipu.han@jpmorgan.com Haoshun Liu +852 2800 7736 haoshun.liu@jpmorgan.com Data as of August 23, 2024 T ...

ab 26 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab US Equity Strategy Earnings Brief 2Q24: August 26 NVDA (6.6% of S&P 500 market cap) reports earnings on Wednesday. EPS is expected to grow 137% (vs. 462% in 1Q24, and expectations of 76% in 3Q24). Reported earnings have beaten estimates for the past 5 quarters. 90.2% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported. 2Q expectations are for revenues to grow 5.1% and EPS by 11.3%. Growth among groups varies significantly, as shown in the table below (a blend of conse ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant changes in futures positions among various market participants, indicating a shift towards flattener positions in the back end and steepener positions in the front end [5][22][19] - There were notable inflows in equities, particularly from private investors, with Japan and the Caribbean being the top Treasury buyers in June [1] - Large commercial banks saw an increase in deposits and cash assets, while their holdings in UST/Agency and MBS also rose [42] Summary by Sections CFTC Non-Commercial Futures Positions - Non-commercials removed $20.6 billion in the front end and added $5.6 billion in the back end, resulting in a total of $26.2 billion of a flattener position [5][9] - The breakdown of front-end positions included SOFR (-$2.4 billion), TU (-$2.1 billion), and FV (-$2.1 billion) [9] Traders in Financial Futures - Asset managers put on $8.8 billion of a steepener position, increasing their net longs in FV contracts to the highest level in six months [2][16] - Leveraged funds added $9.0 billion of a steepener position, increasing their net shorts in TY contracts to the highest level in six months [2][19] Primary Dealer Positions - Dealers added $2.7 billion in the front end and $22.3 billion in the back end, resulting in a total of $19.6 billion of a flattener position [22][26] - Dealers decreased their net shorts in TY contracts to the lowest level in six months [26] Large Commercial Bank Positions - Deposits increased by $45.7 billion, and cash assets rose by $6.3 billion, with UST/Agency holdings increasing by $18.0 billion and MBS holdings by $16.4 billion [42] Foreign Central Bank Positions - Foreign Central Bank UST holdings decreased by $16.9 billion, while Agency/MBS holdings decreased by $0.4 billion [47]

ab 30 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab APAC Economic Perspectives Asia by the Numbers (August 2024) Downgrading China's GDP growth forecast to 4.6% in '24 and 4.0% in '25 Despite new easing measures in July, China's property downturn has persisted. Given lingering inventory pressures, we downgraded our property market forecasts, and expect sales, new starts, and investments to continue falling in 2025, albeit at a slower rate. The weakness in property activities and prices has further weighed on ...

M Update Payments and Processing | North America August 26, 2024 12:39 PM GMT Stock Performance Review: V/ MA, PYPL, AFRM Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC James E Faucette Equity Analyst James.Faucette@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-5771 Shefali Tamaskar Research Associate Shefali.Tamaskar@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4948 Meryl R Thomas, CFA Research Associate Meryl.Thomas@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0774 Michael N Infante Equity Analyst Michael.Infante@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4631 Antonio Jaramillo Research A ...

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10900 Long-Term Growth Prospects in Peru Leveraging the Global Green Transition and the Reforms Needed to Become a High-Income Country Daniel Barco Bledi Celiku Paulo Chávez Arthur Mendes Steven Pennings Elena Resk Development Research Group & Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10900 Abstract This pape ...

\ WORLD BANK GROUP BHUTAN COUNTRY ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM Maximizing Bhutan's Potential for Economic Diversification and Structural Transformation Bhutan Country Economic Memorandum © 2024 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The Wor ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - The study reveals that higher conflict exposure does not significantly impact firm profits, as it leads to reductions in both sales and total costs, indicating a decrease in overall economic activity despite stable profits [3][29] - The analysis utilizes longitudinal firm-level data from 91 countries between 2006 and 2019, focusing on the effects of conflict exposure on various firm outcomes [3][7] - The findings suggest that firms in countries with low-quality bureaucracy experience more pronounced negative effects from conflict exposure compared to those in countries with high-quality bureaucracy [9][29] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report highlights the prevalence of conflict and political violence affecting over 1.7 billion people globally, with significant economic activity continuing under such conditions [7] - It emphasizes the shift from macroeconomic to microeconomic analyses of conflict's effects on firms [7] Data - The primary data source is the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES), which includes information from approximately 180,000 firms across 148 countries, focusing on privately owned firms in the formal sector [12] - The study constructs a firm-specific measure of conflict exposure based on the number of political violence events within a 20 km radius of each firm's location [15] Empirical Strategy - The report employs a fixed-effects model to estimate the impact of conflict exposure on firm outcomes, including sales, total costs, and profits [20] - The identification strategy assumes that conflict events near a firm's location are uncorrelated with any latent determinants of its economic performance [20] Results - Increased conflict exposure leads to a significant reduction in median sales by 2.8% for a one-standard-deviation increase in conflict events [21] - Conflict exposure results in a significant reduction in total production costs, primarily due to diminished availability of inputs rather than lower input prices [22] - The null effect on profits indicates that firms adjust their production costs in response to reduced sales [23] Mechanisms - Conflict exposure reduces a firm's access to raw materials and intermediate inputs, particularly imported ones, leading to decreased output [31] - The analysis shows that conflict exposure results in a shift towards employing more unskilled workers, thereby reducing total labor costs [32]

Policy Research Working Paper 10897 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized A Literature Review on Productivity and Growth in Brazil Fernando Veloso Gabriel Zaourak Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10897 Abstract Productivity growth in Brazil has not kept pace with developed and emerging economies, despite progress in achieving macroeconomic stability and implementing ...

Policy Research Working Paper 10895 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Dynamic Exports and Labor Markets for Inclusive Growth in Cambodia Deeksha Kokas Jaime Alfonso Roche Rodriguez Gladys Lopez Acevedo Raymond Robertson Wendy Karamba Poverty and Equity Global Practice September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10895 Abstract Cambodia's rapid economic growth in the past few decades has coincided with trade liberalization and ...