Core Insights - ADP's board of directors approved a $0.16 increase in the quarterly cash dividend, raising the annual rate to $6.80 per share, marking the 51st consecutive year of dividend increases [1] - The 10% increase in the dividend reflects the board's confidence in ADP's financial strength [1] - The new quarterly dividend rate of $1.70 per share will be distributed on January 1, 2026, to shareholders of record on December 12, 2025 [1] Company Overview - ADP has over 75 years of experience in shaping the world of work, focusing on HR and payroll solutions [2] - The company serves more than 1.1 million clients across over 140 countries, providing a range of services from simple tools for small businesses to integrated platforms for global enterprises [2] - ADP emphasizes innovation and AI-driven insights to design solutions that enhance workforce success [2]

就业数据公司ADP估计，在截至10月25日的四周内，私营部门每周减少1.1万个工作岗位。而上周的另一个数据系列，ADP则预计10月份私营部门增加4.2万个就业岗位。该数据旨在更接近地复制非农报告。#行情 数据公布后，美元指数DXY短线跳水，非美货币集体上涨，现货黄金小幅走高。 ...

Labor Market Overview - The US job market is currently uncertain due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has resulted in a lack of official job reports and data, leaving investors and officials without clear insights into hiring, wages, or participation rates [1] - Private data indicates that while the labor market is holding up, it is losing momentum as layoffs increase and confidence declines [2] Job Creation and Sectors - According to ADP, private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, marking the first monthly gain since July, but this is significantly lower than earlier in the year. The strongest hiring was observed in trades, transportation, and utilities, while professional services and information sectors experienced job losses [5] - Economic strategist Hardika Singh noted that job creation is not predominantly coming from AI-related industries, which is surprising given the current investor focus on AI as a growth driver [6] Layoffs and Economic Impact - Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported over 153,000 job cuts announced in October, the highest for that month since 2003, attributed to cost-cutting, AI adoption, and overhiring during the pandemic [7] - A total of over 1.1 million layoffs have been announced this year, representing a 44% increase from 2024, with the tech and retail sectors leading these reductions, including significant layoffs from companies like Amazon, Target, and UPS [8]

Core Insights - Automatic Data Processing (ADP) has returned $28 billion to shareholders over the past ten years through dividends and buybacks, ranking 100th in historical returns to shareholders [2][3] - The capital returned to shareholders as a percentage of current market cap appears inversely related to growth prospects for reinvestments, with companies like Meta and Microsoft showing faster growth but lower capital returns [4][5] Financial Performance - ADP has demonstrated revenue growth of 7.1% in the last twelve months (LTM) and an average of 7.4% over the past three years [10] - The company has a free cash flow margin of nearly 20.1% and an operating margin of 26.2% LTM [10] - The minimum annual revenue growth for ADP over the last three years was 6.6% [10] - ADP's stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.7 [10] Market Behavior - ADP has experienced significant declines in the past, including a 36% drop during the Dot-Com bubble and a nearly 39% drop during the Covid market downturn [7][8] - The company’s stock can also decline during favorable market conditions, particularly around earnings announcements and business updates [8]

Labor Market Analysis - Private sector job growth swung positive in October to 42,000 from negative 29,000, with larger companies contributing more than midsize and smaller companies [1] - Alternative data, like that from ADP, suggests pre-existing trends in the labor market are continuing at a similar rate, with modest job creation and moderating wages [3] - Labor demand may not be as strong as desired from a cyclical perspective, indicating rates could be lower [4] - Changes to job creation levels due to policy changes like immigration are considered output gap neutral, as additional people both work and consume [6][7][8] - Low levels of growth may result from changing border policy, but monetary policy doesn't automatically respond to this [9][10] Monetary Policy Considerations - Monetary policy aims to balance supply and demand, avoiding both inflation and deflation [7] - Expansionary supply-side policies, like full expensing provisions from the tax bill, incentivize investment in new factory equipment and structures, pushing demand higher in the short run and expanding the supply side in the longer run [12][13][14] - Regulations shape the structure of the economy by influencing production possibilities and industry composition [15] - Monetary policy responds to the output gap, the outlook for inflation, and changes in the neutral rate [18] - An increase in national savings typically leads to lower interest rates [23] Inflation and Interest Rates - One perspective is that current policy is too restrictive, and a faster move to a neutral rate is preferred to avoid undue harm to the job market [25][26][28] - Tariffs are not viewed as a significant driver of inflation, and shelter/housing market inflation is expected to decrease more quickly than some colleagues anticipate [27][28] - High interest rates may already be causing a recession in parts of the economy, particularly housing [30] - The median projection from the September meeting suggested a third rate cut this year, implying a cut in December [35] - Core services inflation, when adjusted for imputed services like portfolio management fees, is closer to 2%, specifically 23%-24% [39][46] - Shelter disinflation is a critical factor in the inflation outlook, with expectations of benign shelter inflation due to market rents running at approximately 1% [47][49] Trade and Economic Uncertainty - Increased uncertainty over the tariff and trade environment could negatively impact the economy [21] - A ruling against the president's authority to issue tariffs could increase uncertainty, potentially pressuring growth and hiring [20][21]

Labor Market Insights - The October ADP private-sector payroll report indicates an addition of +42K new jobs, surpassing expectations by +20K and reversing the previous month's downward revision of -29K [2] - Despite this positive report, the American labor market shows signs of decline, with an average gain of only +29K new jobs over the last four months, a decrease from +53K and +197K in the previous two four-month periods [3] Job Growth by Sector - Goods-producing jobs increased by +9K, while services jobs rose by +33K, with large firms (over 500 employees) contributing +73K to the job growth, contrasting with negative growth in small and medium-sized companies [4] - The Trade/Transportation/Utilities sector led job growth with +47K, followed by Education/Healthcare at +26K, while Leisure/Hospitality and Professional/Business Services saw declines of -6K and -15K respectively [5] Wage Trends - Wage gains for job stayers averaged +4.5%, while job changers saw an increase of +6.7%, indicating a narrowing historical gap and suggesting less urgency for employees to seek new positions [6] Company Earnings Reports - McDonald's (MCD) reported earnings of $3.22 per share, missing estimates of $3.35, but same-store sales increased by +3.6%, leading to a +3% rise in pre-market trading [7] - Humana (HUM) exceeded earnings expectations with $3.24 per share, a +11.34% beat, and revenues of $32.65 billion, but lowered guidance caused shares to drop by -5.5% [8] - Aurora Cannabis (ACB) reported earnings of $0.09 per share, a +200% surprise compared to expectations, with record quarterly revenues of $70.5 million, up +15% year-over-year, resulting in a +9% increase in pre-market trading [9]

Group 1: ADP Private-Sector Payroll Report - The ADP private-sector payroll report for October shows an increase of +42K new positions, exceeding expectations by +20K and marking a positive shift from a revised -29K the previous month [2][3] - Despite the positive report, the American labor market is in decline, averaging only +29K new jobs over the last four months compared to +53K and +197K in the previous two four-month periods [3] - Job growth was driven by large firms (over 500 employees) which added +73K jobs, while small and medium-sized companies experienced negative growth [4] Group 2: Industry Breakdown - The Trade/Transportation/Utilities sector led job growth with an increase of +47K, followed by Education/Healthcare at +26K, while Leisure/Hospitality and Professional/Business Services saw declines of -6K and -15K respectively [5] - Wage gains for job stayers averaged +4.5%, while job changers saw an increase of +6.7%, indicating a narrowing gap in wage growth between the two groups [6] Group 3: Q3 Earnings Results - McDonald's reported earnings of $3.22 per share, missing estimates of $3.35, but same-store sales rose +3.6%, leading to a +3% increase in pre-market trading [7] - Humana posted earnings of $3.24 per share, beating expectations by +11.34%, but lowered guidance resulted in a -5.5% drop in shares [8] - Aurora Cannabis achieved a significant earnings surprise with $0.09 per share compared to the anticipated $0.03, and revenues reached a record $70.5 million, up +15% year over year, resulting in a +9% increase in pre-market shares [9]

We are getting some numbers that are pretty important right now. We're going to be looking at the ADP private payroll data. It's just out.Steve Leeman joins us with those numbers. >> Numbers. What a what a what a thought.Fantastic. ADP saying that private payrolls grew by 42,000 in the month of October. Uh with a decent split when it comes to by sector.Goods producing up 9,000, service providing up 33,000. This is a question. Is this the new normal we have to get used to.Is a relatively lackluster number th ...

Core Insights - Private sector employment increased by 42,000 jobs in October, marking a rebound from previous months of weak hiring, although the growth was not broad-based [1][3][4] - Year-over-year pay growth remained unchanged at 4.5% for job-stayers and 6.7% for job-changers, indicating a balance in supply and demand in the labor market [2][6] Employment Changes - Job growth by industry showed significant contributions from education and health care, and trade, transportation, and utilities, while professional business services, information, and leisure and hospitality sectors experienced job losses [3][4] - The breakdown of job changes by establishment size revealed that large establishments (500+ employees) added 73,000 jobs, while small and medium establishments lost 10,000 and 21,000 jobs respectively [4][5] Regional Employment Trends - Employment changes varied by region, with the West adding 40,000 jobs, while the Northeast saw a decline of 12,000 jobs [4][5] - Specific regional performance included a gain of 7,000 jobs in New England and a loss of 20,000 jobs in the Mid-Atlantic [5] Pay Insights - Pay growth for job-stayers was consistent at 4.5%, with variations across different firm sizes, where large firms reported a median change of 4.9% [6][9] - The pay growth for job-changers was notably higher at 6.7%, reflecting a trend where employees switching jobs are experiencing better pay increases [6] Additional Information - The total number of jobs added in September was revised from -32,000 to -29,000, indicating a slight improvement in previous estimates [7] - The next ADP National Employment Report is scheduled for release on December 3, 2025 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Companies that consistently raise dividends can lead to significant wealth accumulation over time, emphasizing the importance of patience and consistency in stock selection [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Growth Stocks - Dividend growth stocks have historically outperformed other stock types over the long term, making them a valuable addition to a diversified portfolio [2]. - Five blue-chip dividend stocks with a strong track record of consistent dividend growth are highlighted as potential wealth-building investments [2]. Group 2: Microsoft - Microsoft has raised its dividend for 23 consecutive years, showcasing its commitment to returning value to shareholders while investing in innovation [3][4]. - The company has a market capitalization of $3,849 billion and a current price of $517.81, with a dividend yield of 0.01% [5]. Group 3: McDonald's - McDonald's has raised its dividend for 49 consecutive years, benefiting from a global presence with over 44,000 locations [6][7]. - The company generates steady revenue from royalties and fees, positioning it for continued growth amid a rising global population [7]. Group 4: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) - ADP has a 50-year streak of dividend growth, indicating strong management capable of navigating market challenges [8][9]. - The company has a market capitalization of $105 billion and a current price of $260.30, with a dividend yield of 0.02% [9]. Group 5: Sherwin-Williams - Sherwin-Williams has raised its dividend for 46 consecutive years, with a modest payout ratio of 28% of 2025 earnings estimates [10][11]. - The company is positioned to benefit from ongoing demand for paint and coatings, ensuring its relevance in the market [11]. Group 6: Walmart - Walmart has over five decades of uninterrupted annual dividend increases, with a current market capitalization of $807 billion and a price of $101.25 [12][13][14]. - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio below 40% of 2025 earnings estimates, reinforcing its status as a reliable dividend stock [14].