F0244287 财达期货｜贵金属周报 2025-08-25 投资咨询号： Z0012495 9 月降息呼之欲出 金价重返升势 研究员 上周金价先抑后扬，纽约金价收盘在每盎司 3417 美元，沪金 收盘于每克 781.12 元。 从业资格号： 俄乌冲突何时结束仍迷雾重重 姓名：李津文 财达期货｜贵金属周报 财达期货｜贵金属周报 由，抗拒降息。但现在来看，鲍威尔也开始妥协。随着特朗普不断 向鲍威尔施压，以及特朗普更换美联储理事，让自已的亲信米兰担 任美联储理事，美联储副主席也开始发声支持降息，美联储内部由 原来都坚称应暂不降息而转为支持降息声音渐增。鲍威尔明年 5 月 肯定离任，这是最后一次在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上讲话，既然特朗 普政府要降息，金融市场希望降息，美联储内部支持降息声音变大， 鲍威尔为什么非要特立独行，顺水推舟不好吗？可能通胀未来是可 能反弹，但就业数据不是已经明显走弱了吗？继 7 月非农就业数据 大幅走低后，美国上周初请失业救济人数录得近三个月来最大增幅， 显示裁员或在增加，进一步加剧劳动力市场走弱的迹象。美国劳工 部上周四表示，截至 8 月 16 日当周，失业救济初请人数经季调后 增加 1.1 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年08月21日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 有色板块集体小幅反弹，建议暂时观望或少量逢高加空，09合约上 方压力区间21000-21200，下方支撑区间20000-20200，可买入 虚值看跌期权做保护。氧化铝现货价格小幅下跌，在产产能增加， 消息影响发酵过后盘面回落，建议逢高可适量 ...

Group 1 - The market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next month, with at least one more cut expected by the end of the year [1][3] - Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole conference is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for the bond market, potentially influencing future monetary policy [1][4] - Despite recent strong inflation data, traders believe that a weak job market has paved the way for a dovish shift from the Fed [1][4] Group 2 - The yield curve has steepened, with the two-year yield remaining around 3.75%, reflecting a downward trend in yields across various maturities [3] - Historical context from previous Jackson Hole meetings suggests that Powell's statements can significantly impact market expectations regarding interest rate changes [4] - There is a notable pressure from President Trump and his administration for the Fed to lower rates, which has contributed to increased bets on rate cuts [4][5] Group 3 - The focus will shift to the August non-farm payroll data to be released on September 5, which will be crucial in determining the rate cut path [5] - Investors express skepticism about the likelihood of a substantial 50 basis point cut, given the persistent inflation above the Fed's target [5] - The potential for aggressive rate cuts raises concerns about ignoring inflation risks and the implications for the job market [5]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇8月18日丨一年前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上将美联储明确引向秋季降息的道路。 他当时表示："我们不寻求也不欢迎劳动力市场状况进一步降温。现在是政策需要调整的时候了。"这一 表态几乎毫无疑问地预示着美联储将在9月降息，随后果然将利率下调了50个基点。今年，市场已完全 预计9月会有一次降息，但经济学家Ed Yardeni在报告中写道，鲍威尔的表态可能会更为谨慎。Yardeni 称："他更可能表现得像一只猫头鹰——保持观望，而不是鹰派或鸽派。"他补充说："我们的判断是， 在9月会议之前，通胀会比预期更高，就业数据也会好于预期。若情况如此，美联储在作出决策时可能 会更加谨慎。" ...

Group 1 - The market is increasingly anticipating a rate cut in September, with a focus on the Federal Reserve officials' upcoming statements [1][12] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed hesitance towards rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and ongoing tariff uncertainties [2][4] - Goolsbee previously suggested a "golden path" for gradual rate cuts, contingent on stable labor markets and moderate inflation [3][5] Group 2 - Goolsbee indicated that more convincing inflation data is needed before confirming the economic outlook [5] - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports the idea of two rate cuts this year, citing a weakening labor market and slowing economic growth [7][8] - Daly emphasized the importance of waiting for data before making decisions on the number of rate cuts [8] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for September 16-17 to decide on potential rate cuts [10] - Upcoming economic data releases include the August non-farm payrolls on September 5 and the August CPI on September 11 [10] - Market sentiment is optimistic regarding rate cuts, with futures traders pricing in a high likelihood of a September cut and potentially a third cut by year-end [13]

当地时间周三，美国财政部长贝森特表示，鉴于近期就业数据疲软，美联储9月份有可能会大幅降息50个基点。 此前特朗普批评去年9月份的降息是出于政治动机，因为那次降息是本轮宽松周期的第一次降息，且时间接近11月的总统大选。 贝森特呼吁降息之际，特朗普政府正在寻找美联储主席鲍威尔的替代人选，目前潜在候选人的名单已扩大到11人，远多于特朗普几天前所说 的3人名单。 贝森特建议的降息幅度虽然远低于特朗普要求将基准利率降至1%的要求，但会将利率从目前的4.25%至4.5%区间降至约3%，这大致是美 联储政策制定者认为的"中性"水平，既不会刺激也不会抑制经济增长。此举意味着对通胀回落至美联储2%目标的路径已有一定信心，同时 相信经济能够维持接近充分就业的状态。 尽管如此，美联储官员仍不愿宣称抗击通胀的斗争已经取得胜利，因为价格涨幅仍然超过其目标，并且由于特朗普政府关税政策的影响，未 来几个月通胀率可能会暂时加速上升。 在最新数据显示美国7月通胀温和上升，以及贝森特发表上述评论之后，市场对美联储9月降息的预期已接近100%。 贝森特的论点基于美国劳工统计局最近的修正数据。数据显示，美国5月、6月和7月的就业增长几乎停滞，与修正 ...

宏观经济周报 2025 年第 33 周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数显示，中国经济恢复势头有所放缓但整体依然稳 健。具体来看，消费景气指数小幅回落至收缩区间，但降幅有限，反映居民消 费信心和市场活力仍处于修复过程。投资景气指数虽较上周略有回落，但仍接 近扩张区间，显示在政策推动下基建和制造业投资继续发挥支撑作用。生产景 气指数小幅下降至接近荣枯线，企业生产活动温和放缓，但供给端韧性仍在。 出口景气指数与上周基本持平，维持在荣枯线附近，表明外需保持稳定但缺乏 明显加速动力。总体来看，ICHI 综合景气指数提示，尽管经济复苏节奏略有放 缓，但在政策支持与内生动能共同作用下，中国经济依然保持平稳运行格局。 2025 年前 7 个月，中国进出口总值同比增长 3.5%，增速较上半年加快 0.6 个百 分点。其中，7 月当月出口与进口同比均加快凸显外贸韧性。从结构上看，高技 术产品进出口增长 8.4%，贡献率达 45.4%；出口"新三样"产品增长 14.9%；机 电产品出口占比近六成，集成电路和汽车出口快速增长，反映出中国出口产品 正加快向高端、绿色转型。从贸易伙伴来看，东盟连续保持中国第一大贸易伙 ...

Core Points - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations and breaching the 100,000 threshold, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs [1][4] - Despite the disappointing job growth, the unemployment rate remained at approximately 4.2%, which is puzzling given the job losses [1][4] - The release of the employment data led to a sharp decline in the stock market, with the Dow and S&P indices dropping nearly 2% and Nasdaq falling over 2.6% [4][8] - The credibility of the official employment data has been called into question due to the significant downward revisions, which undermines public trust in the data [4][8] - The political implications of the employment data are significant, as it reflects the ongoing power struggle and political maneuvering within the U.S. government, particularly in an election year [7][8] Group 1 - The July employment data was disappointing, with only 73,000 new jobs added, and prior months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs [1][4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, raising questions about the relationship between job growth and unemployment [1][4] - The stock market reacted negatively to the employment data, with major indices experiencing significant declines [4][8] Group 2 - The substantial revisions to employment data have led to skepticism regarding its accuracy and reliability [4][8] - The political context surrounding the employment data suggests it is being used as a tool for political gain, particularly by the Trump administration [7][8] - The situation highlights the intersection of economic data and political strategy, especially in the lead-up to elections [7][8]

Group 1 - President Trump dismissed Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erica McEntyre due to dissatisfaction with employment data, accusing her of manipulating data for political purposes [1] - Trump's approach to employment data has been inconsistent; he praises favorable data while criticizing unfavorable data, indicating a double standard [1] - Recent employment data showed a significant drop in job creation, with July 2024 adding only 114,000 jobs, which was 35% below expectations [3] Group 2 - In the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, Trump criticized employment reports, claiming that the Biden administration was responsible for poor job growth and high unemployment [4][5] - Trump highlighted that approximately 220,000 individuals exited the labor market in September and October 2024, attributing this to a lack of job opportunities [5] - Following a strong employment report in March 2025, where 228,000 jobs were added, Trump praised the data, framing it as evidence of a robust labor market [6] Group 3 - In June 2025, Trump linked positive employment data to stock market gains and significant tariff revenues, indicating a connection between economic performance and his administration's policies [7] - The employment data for May 2025 was initially reported as 139,000 jobs added but was later revised down to 125,000 and then significantly to 19,000, showcasing volatility in employment statistics [7] - Following disappointing employment figures in July 2025, Trump ordered the dismissal of McEntyre, claiming the data was fabricated to benefit the Biden administration [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices showed a slight upward trend on Monday and Tuesday, indicating a correction from previous declines, but investors should remain cautious about weak demand impacting the market [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Price Movement - Copper prices on LME and COMEX are stabilizing, with LME prices unlikely to exceed COMEX prices in the short term [1] - The recent decline in COMEX copper has led to an oversold condition, which may slightly boost valuations in the other two copper markets [1] Demand Factors - Three bullish factors include: 1. Agreement on tariff policies between the US and other countries 2. Employment data causing a decline in the US dollar index 3. Clear support levels for copper prices [1] - Three bearish factors include: 1. Fluctuations in tariff policies 2. Tariff policies leading to a decrease in global demand 3. Adjustments in US copper tariff policies resulting in extremely high COMEX inventories [1]