Core Viewpoint - The Janus Henderson Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF (JMBS) offers a 5.04% yield, presenting a strong alternative to traditional bond funds for retirees seeking monthly income [1] Income Generation - JMBS generates income from homeowners' monthly mortgage payments, distributing these as monthly dividends to shareholders, ensuring predictable cash flow for retirees [2] - The fund has maintained an unbroken payment history since its inception in 2018, reflecting its reliability [2] Dividend Sustainability - JMBS has shown remarkable dividend resilience across varying interest rate environments, with recent monthly distributions around $0.20 per share [3] - The fund's management team possesses deep expertise in the mortgage market, contributing to its effective portfolio strategy and security selection [3] Dividend Safety - The underlying securities of JMBS are predominantly agency-backed, which means the U.S. government guarantees principal and interest payments, significantly reducing credit risk [4] - The current interest rate environment supports robust income generation, with low prepayment risk due to elevated mortgage rates, leading to stable cash flows [4] Expense Ratio and Yield - JMBS has a 0.22% expense ratio, which is higher than passive alternatives but justified by its 5.04% yield, providing additional income for retirees [5] - This yield advantage helps cover living expenses without depleting principal, making the active management premium worthwhile for cash flow-focused investors [5] Total Return Performance - JMBS has delivered strong total returns, combining price appreciation with distribution payments, and has outperformed the broad bond market over a five-year period [6] Alternative Options - Investors may consider the Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF (VMBS), which has a lower expense ratio of 0.03% and a yield of 3.96%, offering a cost-effective alternative for retirees prioritizing expenses over yield [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Janus Henderson Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF (JMBS) offers a 5.04% yield, making it an attractive option for retirees seeking stable income without the volatility associated with equity-based strategies [2][6]. Income Generation - JMBS generates income from homeowners' monthly mortgage payments, distributing these as monthly dividends to shareholders, ensuring predictable cash flow for retirees [3]. - The fund has maintained an unbroken payment history since its inception in 2018, reflecting its reliability [3]. Dividend Sustainability - JMBS has shown strong dividend resilience across different interest rate environments, with recent monthly payments around $0.20 per share [4]. - The fund's safety is bolstered by its predominantly agency-backed securities, which are guaranteed by the U.S. government, thus minimizing credit risk [5]. - The current interest rate environment supports income generation, with low prepayment risk due to elevated mortgage rates, leading to stable cash flows [5]. Management and Performance - JMBS has a 0.22% expense ratio, which is higher than passive alternatives but justified by its active management strategy that has resulted in a 5.04% yield, significantly above comparable passive MBS funds [6]. - The fund has delivered strong total returns, combining price appreciation with distribution payments, and has outperformed the broad bond market over a five-year period [7].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is seeking to align with progressives to address affordability issues and position Republicans favorably for the midterm elections, despite his previous economic policies that have been criticized by the left [1][8]. Economic Policies - Trump has renewed his campaign promise to cap credit card interest rates at 10%, a proposal that has been stagnant in Congress since its introduction [2][14]. - He aims to ban large investors from purchasing single-family homes, a move intended to make housing more affordable for first-time buyers, echoing progressive initiatives [13]. - Trump has directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to invest $200 billion in mortgage bonds to lower mortgage rates and monthly payments, although analysts predict minimal impact on the housing market [2][15]. Political Dynamics - Trump's economic agenda has raised concerns among traditional conservatives, as it deviates from limited-government, free-market principles [5][6]. - The shift towards cost-control policies is seen as a response to recent electoral successes for Democrats, indicating a strategic move to regain voter support [8][10]. - There is skepticism from progressive leaders like Sen. Bernie Sanders regarding Trump's commitment to these policies, given his past actions that favored deregulation [7][20]. Bipartisan Support and Opposition - Some of Trump's initiatives may garner bipartisan support, but significant opposition is expected from business-friendly Republicans and Democrats [10][21]. - The political landscape is complicated, as Trump's policies may force Republicans to support ideas they traditionally oppose, while some Democrats may struggle to vote against him [21][23]. Public Perception and Polling - Recent polling indicates that only 31% of voters approve of Trump's handling of the economy, a decline from 40% shortly after he returned to office [17]. - The gap between Trump's economic perspective and voter sentiment has prompted him to campaign in key states to promote his economic agenda [18][19].

Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi warns that President Donald Trump‘s directive for Fannie Mae (OTC:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTC:FMCC) to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds will likely backfire, driving home prices higher rather than solving the nation’s “severe housing affordability problem.”Prices Vs. AffordabilityWhile President Trump claims his executive order will restore “affordability” and bring the “American Dream” back by lowering monthly payments, Zandi argues the plan ignores basic economics. ...

Short Thoughts, new today.I cover Medicaid fraud/Molina, Shift4, Fannie Mae, the job market and “AI,” etc.On that last point, during COVID, Medicaid redetermination – that is, re-confirming participant qualifications to be part of Medicaid – were suspended – and this continued for over 3 years!About 25% of Molina’s membership is in California, where Medicaid enrollment is 10x bigger than Minnesota.https://t.co/nCxSgQwcUG ...

Core Viewpoint - A group of former Federal Reserve chairs, Treasury secretaries, and prominent economists expressed support for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, alarmed by the Justice Department's threat of criminal prosecution against the central bank, which they view as an unprecedented attack on its independence [1][2]. Group 1: Concerns Over Central Bank Independence - The criminal inquiry into Fed Chair Jay Powell is seen as an attempt to undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, which is crucial for effective monetary policy [2]. - Janet Yellen emphasized that the investigation compromises the central bank's independence and described the situation as "extremely chilling" for financial markets [3]. - Concerns about the erosion of central bank independence could lead to higher bond yields, increasing borrowing costs for consumers, particularly affecting mortgage rates [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the news of the investigation, markets showed volatility, with stocks wavering and slight declines in the dollar, Treasurys, and US equities futures [3]. - Predictions suggest that the criminal investigation may unify the Federal Reserve around Powell, potentially isolating any new nominee for Fed chair and complicating future monetary policy [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Mortgage rates have fallen below 6% for the first time since February 2023, primarily due to President Trump's directive to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds to address the housing crisis [1][4]. Mortgage Rates - The average rate for a 30-year fixed residential mortgage decreased to 5.87% on Monday, down from 5.99% on Friday [1][8]. - The interest rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage also fell to 5.25% [3]. Government Actions - President Trump announced the purchase of $200 billion in mortgage bonds, stating this would lower mortgage rates and make homeownership more affordable [4]. - Federal Housing Finance Authority Director Bill Pulte confirmed that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would execute these purchases, with an initial $3 billion already allocated [4]. Impact on Lenders and Borrowers - The bond purchases are expected to increase the liquidity available to lenders, allowing them to offer more loans to homebuyers, which could lead to lower interest rates [5]. - UBS analysts predict that this bond buying could reduce 30-year fixed mortgage rates by more than a fifth of a percent [6]. Market Context - The average rate of outstanding US residential mortgages is currently at 4.4%, which is significantly lower than the new mortgage rates, potentially discouraging homeowners from selling [6]. - Trump's bond buying initiative represents about 1.4% of the $14.5 trillion mortgage market, indicating a limited overall impact on the market [6]. Housing Market Dynamics - Analysts express skepticism regarding the significant impact of Trump's initiatives on the housing market, including a proposed ban on institutional investors buying single-family homes [7]. - Large investors and private-equity firms have acquired a substantial number of single-family homes, but they only control about 2% of the nation's housing stock [8].

During the pandemic-era housing market, homebuyers enjoyed sub-3% rates, ushering in a wave of homebuying among younger generations. But in the following few years, the American Dream came crashing down as mortgage rates and home prices rose, and inflation and wage stagnation set in. That meant more homeowners in the U.S. had sub-3% mortgage rates compared with today’s 6%-range rates, creating a lock-in effect in which current homeowners refused to let go of their low mortgage rates and sell their homes o ...

Group 1: Housing Market Trends - The median age of first-time homebuyers has risen to 40 years, compared to 29 years in 1981, with the share of first-time homebuyers dropping to a historic low of 21 percent [1] - Calque and The Loan Store have partnered to expand the Buy Before You Sell+ program, allowing consumers to purchase a new home before selling their current one, which helps more borrowers qualify for loans [3] - Curinos reported a 20% year-over-year increase in funded mortgage volume for December 2025, with a 34% increase in the Retail channel [14] Group 2: Credit Card Interest Rate Proposals - President Trump proposed a cap on credit card interest rates at 10 percent, which has drawn criticism from various banking associations, stating it could reduce credit availability for millions [10][11] - Bill Ackman criticized the proposal, suggesting it would lead to credit card lenders canceling cards for many consumers, pushing them towards less regulated and more costly alternatives [12] - The proposal highlights the importance of supply and demand in determining interest rates and the potential consequences of government intervention in the credit market [13] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - The labor market added 50,000 jobs in December, with the unemployment rate declining to 4.4%, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain a slightly restrictive monetary policy [15] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of a near-term rate cut, with a consensus on a +0.3% core CPI print likely being a non-event [16] - The Trump administration's housing initiatives, including a proposed ban on institutional investors buying single-family homes and a directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds, may have limited impact on housing affordability [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. housing market may experience significant improvements due to government actions aimed at making housing more affordable, particularly through the purchase of mortgage bonds worth $200 billion [2][3][5]. Group 1: Government Actions - The Trump administration is directing representatives to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds to lower mortgage rates and monthly payments, making homeownership more affordable [2][3]. - The Federal Housing Finance Agency Director, William Pulte, emphasized the importance of using the $200 billion in cash available at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to enhance housing affordability [5]. - Pulte expressed confidence in the administration's ability to reverse negative trends in the housing market from the past four years [5][7]. Group 2: Housing Market Dynamics - Pulte criticized the practice of homebuilders selling properties to corporations at significant discounts (20-40%) compared to prices for individual buyers, arguing that this undermines the goal of providing shelter for people [6]. - The administration's recent decision to ban large investment institutions from acquiring single-family homes aims to ensure that homes are available for individuals rather than being held on corporate balance sheets [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Pulte is optimistic about upcoming meetings with homebuilders and believes that they will resume construction activities, contributing to the housing market's recovery [5][7]. - There is an expectation of executive action followed by legislative codification to support these housing initiatives [7].