They'll always Jim, you've been talking about this from a strategic point of view, right. Interface design. You guys, hopefully everybody will be able to hear us.The crowd is going to be extremely loud. Well, I mean, uses it, Duolingo uses it, Uber uses it, JetBlue, 95% of the Fortune 500 use it. And if you have a prescript, you know, if you have a subscription to Adobe, it's much more expensive than Figma.But Figma's very good product. >> This is Figma versus Adobe, just so everyone knows. >> Yeah.So the m ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Duolingo, Inc. due to higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show quarterly earnings of $0.55 per share, reflecting a +7.8% change year-over-year, and revenues of $240.54 million, which is a 34.9% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.71% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for Duolingo is lower than the consensus estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.52%, suggesting bearish sentiment among analysts [12]. Historical Performance - Duolingo has beaten consensus EPS estimates three out of the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +38.46% in the last reported quarter [13][14]. Investment Considerations - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, the combination of a negative Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 4 makes it challenging to predict a positive outcome for Duolingo [12][17].

Group 1 - UBS highlights the upcoming earnings season for small and mid-cap companies focused on AI application software, recommending increased allocation to Applovin (APP.US) and The Trade Desk (TTD.US) as leaders in the "AI + digital advertising" segment [1][2] - The report emphasizes that small-cap stocks are currently more attractive compared to large-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index's expected P/E ratio around 15x, below historical averages [2][3] - UBS expects several small-cap AI application software companies to provide positive earnings guidance, with Applovin and The Trade Desk anticipated to exceed market expectations for Q3 [3][4] Group 2 - The integration of AI in digital advertising has accelerated since the rise of ChatGPT, with major players like Google and Meta incorporating generative AI technologies to enhance ad performance [4][5] - UBS notes that the shift in focus from hardware to software in tech investments is benefiting companies like Applovin and The Trade Desk, as demand for AI application software continues to grow [5][6] - UBS maintains an optimistic outlook on Applovin's performance, raising its Q2 2025 revenue forecast to $867 million, reflecting positive trends from App Store advertising policies and strong growth in its self-operated app business [7][8] Group 3 - The Trade Desk is also viewed positively by UBS, with expectations for steady growth in Q2, driven by its "AI + digital advertising" platform and upcoming events that could catalyze further performance [7][8] - Both companies have successfully integrated generative AI and deep learning into their advertising technologies, leading to significant revenue growth and improved operational efficiency [8]

Market Overview & Economic Factors - Markets anticipate a potentially pivotal week with major tech earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, jobs report, economic data, and trade deals influencing market direction [2] - Monday's trading day exhibited tepid price action and lower volatility, but expectations are for increased volatility in the coming sessions [5] - The U S housing market is experiencing its worst spring selling season in 13 years, impacting related industries [25] Sector Performance - Industry groups showed more decliners than advancers, with real estate investment trusts, materials, and utilities down over 1%, while energy stocks gained over 1% due to higher oil prices, and tech and consumer discretionary sectors also performed positively [8] - Semiconductor space significantly outperformed the broader market, rising approximately 16% [9] Individual Company Highlights - Figma's IPO is anticipated to be large and is scheduled to price on Wednesday and begin trading on Thursday under the ticker AIG [3][4] - UBS analyst raised their price target on AMD to $210 from $150, maintaining a buy rating, with AMD closing up approximately 43% at $173 [10] - Tesla's stock increased by about 3% following Morgan Stanley's forecast that the self-driving vehicle market will reach $200 billion by 2030 [12] - JP Morgan upgraded Nike from neutral to overweight, raising its price target from $64 to $93, advising clients to buy [12] Earnings & Outlook - Cadence Design reported revenue of $128 billion, slightly above expectations of $125 billion, with adjusted EPS of $165 versus estimates of $156 per share, and raised its 2025 revenue outlook to 13% growth [14][15] - Whirlpool's second-quarter net sales missed estimates at $377 billion versus $385 billion, with ongoing EPS also missing consensus at $134 versus $161, and the company maintained its full-year revenue outlook at $158 billion [22][23] - Whirlpool anticipates full-year cash from operating activities of approximately $850 million and free cash flow of $400 million, revised down from a previous range of $500 million to $600 million [23] Risks & Challenges - Opendoor's stock fell 79% after postponing a shareholder vote on a reverse stock split due to recent stock price volatility [16][17] - Gilead shares declined 27% due to potential risks to its HIV preventative franchise following reports of plans to dismiss an advisory panel [18] - Duolingo's shares decreased by 65% after Citizens expressed caution regarding upcoming results, citing third-party data suggesting slowed engagement since April, and lowered the price target to $450 from $475 [20][21]

Company: Super Micro Computer - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has established a strong position in the AI server market by leveraging close relationships with Nvidia and AMD, allowing for quicker access to chips and faster prototyping of customized servers [5][6] - For the trailing 12 months, Supermicro reported $21.57 billion in revenue, nearly tripling its total from two years ago, although Q3 2025 net sales dropped to $4.6 billion from $5.68 billion in Q2 [6] - The company expects a rebound in Q4 with projected net sales between $5.6 billion and $6.4 billion, attributed to delayed customer orders [6] - Operating expenses surged to $293.4 million in Q3, a 34% increase from the previous year, while gross margins decreased to 9.6% from 15.5% [7] - Supermicro's modular rack systems provide a flexible solution for enterprises needing rapid deployment of AI infrastructure, potentially opening new growth channels [8][9] Company: Duolingo - Duolingo remains the world's most popular education app, reporting a 38% year-over-year revenue increase to $230.7 million in Q1 2025, with monthly active users rising to over 130 million [10][11] - The number of paid subscribers grew by 40% year-over-year to a record 10.3 million, with 7% of users opting for the premium Max subscription, indicating a willingness to pay for enhanced value [11] - Despite strong fundamentals, Duolingo's stock has faced challenges, dropping about 33% from May highs, with daily active users declining from 56% in February to 37% in June [12] - The education technology market is projected to grow to $348 billion by 2030, with the language learning market expected to reach $125 billion by 2034, suggesting significant growth potential for Duolingo [13][14] - Duolingo's position as the leading paid language-learning app positions it well to capitalize on market growth and convert more users into paid subscribers [14] Industry Outlook - Both Supermicro and Duolingo are positioned in expanding markets, with Supermicro providing essential infrastructure for the AI boom and Duolingo capitalizing on the growing demand for language learning [15]

Core Viewpoint - Duolingo's stock has experienced significant volatility, with a recent sell-off creating potential investment opportunities despite concerns over growth deceleration and increased churn [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Duolingo's shares have dropped over 30% from their highs after a rally of more than 100% between March and May [1]. - The stock price is currently at $356.23, with a 12-month price target of $435.87, indicating a potential upside of 22.36% [6]. - Analysts maintain a Moderate Buy rating, with some firms like JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley reiterating their bullish outlook despite recent weaknesses [6][7]. Group 2: Revenue Model and User Base - The company generates revenue primarily through paid subscriptions, in-app purchases, and advertising on its gamified learning platform [2]. - Duolingo has over 100 million monthly active users, but this represents only a small fraction of the total addressable market in language learning, indicating substantial growth potential [8]. Group 3: Growth Concerns - Recent data suggests a deceleration in subscription growth and an increase in user churn, raising concerns among investors [2][9]. - The company's current P/E ratio exceeds 180, and any further signs of declining growth could exacerbate the recent sell-off [9]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Questions have arisen regarding the sustainability of Duolingo's competitive advantage, as new entrants and specialized startups are beginning to challenge its market position [10]. - Despite product fatigue concerns, Duolingo's strong cash reserves and brand recognition may help it address these challenges [10].

Core Insights - Duolingo Inc's shares have experienced a decline of 4.7%, currently priced at $360.67, marking the eighth consecutive weekly loss and a significant drop from the record high of $544.93 on May 14, although still showing an 11% year-to-date gain [1] Group 1 - The stock is approaching its 200-day moving average, indicating a historically bullish signal for potential buyers [2] - Duolingo's stock is within 0.75 of the trendline's 20-day average true range (ATR), having spent over 80% of the last 10 days and two months above this level. In the past three years, similar conditions led to an average gain of 26.2% one month later, potentially bringing the stock back to $455 [3] Group 2 - Short interest has increased, now representing 6.1% of the stock's available float, suggesting potential for a short squeeze if the stock rebounds [4] - The 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.67 indicates a higher level of pessimism among options traders, ranking above 93% of readings from the past year, which could provide tailwinds for the stock [4]

Core Insights - Duolingo, Inc. will announce its second quarter results for the period ending June 30, 2025, on August 6, 2025, after the U.S. market closes [1] - A live video webcast of the earnings announcement will be available to the public on Duolingo's Investor Relations website [2] - Duolingo is recognized as the leading mobile learning platform globally, with its app being the most popular for language learning and the top-grossing app in the Education category on major app stores [3] Company Overview - Duolingo's flagship app has gained significant popularity, becoming the preferred choice for language learners worldwide [3] - The company emphasizes technology in its operations, aiming to provide an engaging and effective learning experience [3] - Duolingo is committed to its mission of delivering the best education globally and making it universally accessible [3]

Core Insights - Duolingo operates the world's most popular digital language education platform and is leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the learning experience and unlock new revenue streams [1] - The company's stock reached a record high in May but has since declined by 26%, raising questions about its valuation and growth potential [2] User Growth and Engagement - Duolingo's mobile-first, gamified approach attracted 130.2 million monthly active users in Q1 2025, a 33% increase year-over-year [4] - The number of paying subscribers grew by 40% to a record 10.3 million during the same period, driven in part by AI enhancements [5] Subscription and AI Features - The Max subscription plan, launched in 2023, includes AI-powered features such as Roleplay, Explain My Answer, and Videocall, contributing significantly to new paying users [6][7] - The Max plan accounts for 7% of the total subscriber base, aligning with the company's goal of providing a digital learning experience comparable to human tutoring [7] Financial Performance - Duolingo reported $230.7 million in revenue for Q1 2025, reflecting a 38% year-over-year growth and exceeding the high end of its forecast [8] - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2025 to as much as $996 million, up from a previous estimate of $978.5 million [9] - GAAP net income for Q1 was $35.1 million, a 30% increase year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA soared by 43% to $62.8 million [10] Valuation Metrics - Duolingo's stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 193.1, significantly higher than the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 24.1, indicating a high valuation [12] - The forward P/E ratio for 2026 is 48.8, suggesting a slightly more reasonable valuation based on future earnings estimates [13] - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio stands at 22.9, a 40% premium compared to its average of 16.3 since going public in 2021 [15] Investment Outlook - While Duolingo's stock may not be ideal for short-term investors, its potential for long-term growth could make it a solid investment for those willing to hold for five years or more [17]

Group 1 - Michael Wiggins De Oliveira is an inflection investor, focusing on buying undervalued companies at pivotal moments when their profitability is expected to improve significantly over the next year [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes technology and the Great Energy Transition, including uranium, with a concentrated portfolio of approximately 15 to 20 stocks and an average holding period of 18 months [1] - Michael has over 10 years of experience analyzing companies in tech and energy sectors, and has built a following of over 40,000 on Seeking Alpha [2] Group 2 - The Investing Group Deep Value Returns, led by Michael, offers insights through its concentrated portfolio of value stocks, timely updates on stock picks, and a weekly webinar for live advice [3] - The group provides "hand-holding" support for both new and experienced investors, fostering an active and kind community accessible via chat [3]