Core Insights - MercadoLibre is experiencing a 10% decline in stock value due to increased competition from Amazon in Brazil, its largest market [1][2] - Amazon's aggressive strategy includes waiving logistics fees and take rates for new Brazilian merchants during the holiday season [2] - Despite the competition, MercadoLibre's strong logistical network and diverse fintech solutions position it well in the market [4][5] Competitive Landscape - Amazon is expanding aggressively in Brazil, but it is still considered an underdog compared to its dominance in the U.S. [3] - MercadoLibre has a robust ecosystem that includes e-commerce and fintech, making it difficult for competitors to disrupt its business [4][5] - Other competitors like Walmart, Costco, Sea Limited's Shopee, and Chinese companies such as Shein and PDD Holding's Temu are also entering the Latin American market [6][7] Market Potential - Latin America is viewed as a promising growth area for e-commerce, indicating that competition will continue to intensify [5] - MercadoLibre has shown significant growth over the past decade, being described as a "24-bagger," highlighting its potential for future growth [5]

I recently joined The REIT Forum , and if you are looking for more investment ideas like this one, get them exclusively at The REIT Forum with access to our subscriber-only portfolios.I first wrote about MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI ) in early June. At that time, I rated the stock a “hold,” as I believed that its price-to-earnings multiple of 50 was unjustified, especially as beating its earningsAmrita runs a boutique family office fund in beautiful Vancouver, where she leads the investment strategy for the f ...

Core Insights - MercadoLibre is a promising investment due to its growth optionality, allowing it to expand into new markets despite its current size of $120 billion and a 30% increase in 2025 [1][2] Market Expansion - The company has 71 million monthly active buyers who spent over $15 billion in the last quarter, with Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico making up 96% of total sales, indicating significant growth potential in other Latin American countries [3] - Latin America has 50% more people than the United States, yet its e-commerce penetration is only half that of the U.S., highlighting a vast opportunity for growth [4] Advertising Growth - MercadoLibre increased its share of the Latin American digital ads market from 1.5% in 2019 to 6.7% in 2024, making it the third-largest advertiser in the region, with a 38% sales growth in the second quarter [5] - The Latin American retail media market is expected to triple in size between 2024 and 2028, suggesting continued growth for MercadoLibre in this segment [5] Business-to-Business (B2B) Initiatives - The company launched its B2B offering, enabling 4 million users to make wholesale purchases, with management estimating this market to be four times the size of its existing consumer marketplace [6] Fintech and Credit Services - With 68 million monthly active fintech users, MercadoLibre is positioned to disrupt the underbanked and cash-heavy payment landscape in Latin America [7] - The company has 35 million users in its credit portfolio, with 60% previously having no credit offers, and continues to grow sales by over 30% quarter after quarter [7]

Group 1: Arm Holdings - Arm is a British chipmaker that designs CPU architectures and licenses its intellectual property to other companies for custom chip development [3] - The company has gained market share in data centers, with over 70,000 enterprises using Arm server CPUs, a 14-fold increase in four years [4] - Nvidia owns a $178 million stake in Arm and has built its Grace CPU on Arm architecture, with other major companies like Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft also designing Arm-based server CPUs [5] - Arm reported a 12% increase in total sales to $1 billion, but missed expectations on the top line, with operating margin contracting by 8 percentage points due to increased R&D spending [6] - Wall Street estimates Arm's adjusted earnings will grow at 23% annually through March 2027, making its current valuation of 87 times earnings appear expensive [7] - Coatue estimates Arm will be worth $787 billion by 2030, implying a 430% upside from its current market value of $148 billion, equating to nearly 40% annual returns over the next five years [9] Group 2: MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre operates the largest online marketplace in Latin America, where e-commerce accounts for only 15% of total retail sales, compared to over 30% in the U.S. [8] - The company accounted for about 28% of retail e-commerce sales in Latin America last year, with projections to reach 30% market share by 2026 [8] - MercadoLibre has established its leadership by providing logistics, payments, and advertising services, creating a robust ecosystem for merchants [9] - The company reported a 34% increase in total revenue to $6.8 billion, with 29% growth in the commerce segment and 40% growth in the fintech segment [11] - Wall Street expects MercadoLibre's earnings to grow at 32% annually over the next three years, making its current valuation of 58 times earnings appear reasonable [12] - Coatue estimates MercadoLibre will be worth $300 billion by 2030, implying a 150% upside from its current market value of $120 billion, equating to 20% annual returns over the next five years [9]

Group 1 - Mercado Libre's shares experienced a significant decline of 6.8% on October 1, following a 6.6% drop on September 30, marking the largest two-day slump since November [2] - The decline is attributed to increased competition in Brazil's eCommerce market, particularly due to Amazon Brazil's decision to waive or reduce Fulfillment by Amazon fees for certain sellers during the holiday season, as well as the presence of ultra-cheap goods from Temu and Shein [2][3] - Despite the recent stock decline, Mercado Libre remains the largest eCommerce player in Brazil and Latin America, continuing to invest heavily in the region, including an expansion of its free shipping offer [3][5] Group 2 - The company reported a 34% year-over-year growth in items sold in June, driven by a lower threshold for free shipping [4] - Mercado Libre plans to increase its investment in Brazil by 48%, from approximately $3.7 billion in 2024 to about $5.8 billion in 2025, focusing on logistics, technology, marketing, and increasing its workforce by 14,000 to a total of 50,000 [6] - Additionally, the company announced a $3.4 billion investment in Mexico, its second-largest market, while not disclosing specific plans for Argentina [7] Group 3 - On September 22, Mercado Libre launched a new B2B unit in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, expanding its business beyond the traditional consumer market, with over 4 million users enabled for wholesale purchases [8]

Shares of MercadoLibre are heading for their biggest two-day slump since November on concern that Amazon's latest move in Brazil will ramp up competition in the e-commerce segment https://t.co/RglCpVSEH3 ...

MELI is the most valuable company in LatAm despite also being one of the youngest listed entities in the region, only turning 26 this year.Striving to compound knowledge. Long-time fan of Warren and Charlie. Always invert. "To finish first, you must first finish". Investing own and family funds for +20 years. Senior finance roles at public and private corporations for most of that time.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MELI either through stock ownership, options, or ...

MELI is the most valuable company in LatAm despite also being one of the youngest listed entities in the region, only turning 26 this year.Striving to compound knowledge. Long-time fan of Warren and Charlie. Always invert. "To finish first, you must first finish". Investing own and family funds for +20 years. Senior finance roles at public and private corporations for most of that time.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MELI either through stock ownership, options, or ...

For a diversified business like MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI ), a Buy thesis is not about the scope and market size. That is known and acknowledged. An analysis of MercadoLibre should be more around what kind of scenarios are required for theI am a stock analyst with over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management. My focus is on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization to uncover high-growth investment opportunities. As a former Vice Pres ...

JR Research is an opportunistic investor. He was recognized by TipRanks as a Top Analyst. He was also recognized by Seeking Alpha as a "Top Analyst To Follow" for Technology, Software, and Internet, as well as for Growth and GARP. He identifies attractive risk/reward opportunities supported by robust price action to potentially generate alpha well above the S&P 500. He has also demonstrated outperformance with his picks. He focuses on identifying growth investing opportunities that present the most attracti ...