This report is an update to the analysis we published in July since we have more information on what the restructuring will look like and how it will be done. We continue to follow the stock closely on a day-to-dayWe are two Andres & Angel, two professionals dedicated to U.S. investments and the two analysts behind this profile. We started this profile to uncover more remote investment ideas that are usually overlooked by traditional investors. We seek to employ an angle anchored in the well-known “second-l ...

The planned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac offering is prompting one of the strangest “bake-offs” ever https://t.co/aY37hNbMrK ...

The planned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac offering is prompting one of the strangest "bake-offs†ever. ...

Housing Sector - The U.S. housing sector is under scrutiny, with the top three homebuilders responsible for over $20 billion in Fannie Mae loan purchases [2][8] - President Trump has urged mortgage financing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to stimulate "Big Homebuilders," citing 2 million empty lots held by builders [2][8] Monetary Policy - Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid expressed confidence in the long-term stability of the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency, despite discussions around de-dollarization [3][8] - Schmid noted no significant change in labor conditions, indicating a balanced but cooling labor market [3][8] Financial Markets - Australia's public equity markets are set for increased competition following ASIC's approval of Cboe Australia's application to operate a listing market, challenging the dominance of the Australian Securities Exchange [4][8] Political Landscape - House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries raised concerns over a lack of communication from the White House, highlighting the ongoing impasse in negotiations regarding the government shutdown [5][8] Digital Finance - Federal Reserve officials are evaluating the regulatory framework for stablecoins, comparing their functionality to existing digital payment services like Venmo [6][8]

When President Donald Trump compared “Big Homebuilders” to OPEC in a Sunday evening Truth Social post, he gave voice to a common populist trope: Greedy developers are hoarding the supply of houses and thus driving up costs. In many ways, it was classic Trump, sending a jolt through corporate America at one of the least expected times while embracing a populist policy point, and traversing across previously fiercely guarded partisan lines. It almost sounded like something from the center-left “Abundance” mov ...

Core Points - Fannie Mae announced the results of its fixed-price cash tender offers for certain Connecticut Avenue Securities (CAS) Notes [1] - A total of $2,000 million in original principal amount of Notes were validly tendered by the expiration time of October 3, 2025 [2] Summary by Category Tender Offer Details - The Offers were conducted for specific CAS Notes as outlined in the Offer Documents dated September 29, 2025 [1] - The settlement date for the accepted Notes is expected to be October 7, 2025, with additional purchases for those using the Notice of Guaranteed Delivery on October 8, 2025 [6] Tendered Notes Information - The total original principal amount tendered includes $27,281,728 of Notes tendered using the Notice of Guaranteed Delivery [5] - The aggregate original principal amount of Notes tendered was $2,250,877,000, representing 88.87% of the total [4] Specific Notes Performance - Connecticut Avenue Securities, Series 2017-C03, Class 1B-1 Notes had a 100% tender rate with an original principal balance of $26,045,000 [3] - Connecticut Avenue Securities, Series 2017-C06, Class 2B-1 Notes had a tender rate of 1.01%, with $195,000 tendered from an original balance of $19,316,000 [3] - Connecticut Avenue Securities, Series 2021-R02, Class 2M-2 Notes had a tender rate of 81.03%, with $351,667,668 tendered from an original balance of $434,007,000 [4]

Economic and M&A Trends - The government shutdown is affecting lenders' businesses but not impacting M&A activity, as evidenced by Fifth Third's announcement to acquire Comerica in a $10.9 billion stock deal, which could signal a consolidation trend among regional banks [1] - The acquisition would create the nation's ninth-largest bank, indicating a potential shift in the banking landscape under the current administration's favorable stance towards such deals [1] Technology and Innovation in Lending - FirstClose™ has integrated with Optimal Blue's product, pricing, and eligibility engine, allowing lenders to accelerate home equity closings from 45 days to 10 or fewer, enhancing borrower experience and operational efficiency [2] - Dark Matter Technologies is showcasing how orchestration in mortgage lending can enhance human engagement in automated processes, emphasizing the importance of technology in delivering a better customer experience [3] Government Shutdown Impact on Lending - The USDA has furloughed most staff, halting loan guarantees and conditional commitments, while the FHA continues operations with limited services, suspending HRAP condominium approvals [10][11] - VA lending and Ginnie Mae operations are ongoing but with reduced staffing, while Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain unaffected by the shutdown [12] Market Conditions and Economic Indicators - Economic data delays due to the government shutdown are creating uncertainty in the markets, with recent reports indicating layoffs at the fastest pace since 2009 and a contraction in business activity for the first time since 2020 [18] - Despite signs of labor market weakness, consumer spending remains resilient, although this is fragile and influenced by temporary factors such as auto sales spikes [18] Political Risks and Market Sentiment - The potential for the Trump Administration to exploit the shutdown for permanent workforce reductions is adding political volatility to an already shaky economic environment, influencing market sentiment [19] - The ongoing uncertainty and potential restructuring could reinforce investor wariness, particularly affecting lower-income households facing economic strain [19]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. President Donald Trump is urging mortgage financing companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to stimulate activity among homebuilders, citing a claim that builders are sitting on 2 million empty lots, which he describes as a record [1][1]. Group 1: Mortgage Financing Companies - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are being called upon to take action to support homebuilders [1]. - These companies guarantee over half of the nation's mortgages and have been under federal conservatorship since the 2008 financial crisis [1]. Group 2: Homebuilders - Trump suggests that U.S. builders are currently holding 2 million empty lots, indicating a potential opportunity for increased construction activity [1]. - The specific actions expected from builders or mortgage giants remain unclear [1]. Group 3: Government and Financial Institutions - In August, Trump met with top U.S. bank executives to discuss plans for the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac [1]. - The administration's plans aim to shift these finance firms out of federal conservatorship [1].

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices surged to a record high of $3,920 per ounce, marking a nearly 50% increase this year as investors sought safe-haven assets amid US government shutdown and geopolitical uncertainty [3][7] - The performance of gold reflects a broader investor pivot towards stability during turbulent times [3] Group 2: Japan's Financial Markets - Japan's Nikkei futures rose by 4% following the announcement that pro-stimulus leader Sanae Takaichi is set to become prime minister, indicating anticipated growth-boosting policies [4][7] - The yen depreciated by 1.2% as investors reacted positively to the political development, which also spurred a rally in commodities [4] Group 3: US Housing Market - President Trump urged Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) to promote large-scale homebuilders to boost housing development, aiming to restore the "American Dream" [5][7] - This directive signals a potential shift in federal housing policy focused on increasing the availability of new homes [5] Group 4: Oil Market - Oil prices increased following OPEC+'s decision to approve a smaller-than-expected output hike of 137,000 barrels per day, providing temporary market support [6][7] - Despite this, concerns over a projected global surplus in 2026 and weakening demand continue to limit significant upside for crude prices [6] Group 5: BYD's SkyRail Project - BYD's $1 billion SkyRail monorail project in China has stalled due to local government funding drying up, resulting in numerous half-built stations and idle trains [7][8] - Despite the setbacks, BYD's founder Wang Chuanfu remains committed to reviving the project [8]

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to strengthen expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in an 88% chance of a cut in December [1] - The shutdown has led to 750,000 furloughs, increasing the likelihood of further easing by the Federal Reserve despite ongoing inflation concerns [1] - The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) has lapsed, complicating approximately 1,400 property transactions daily and affecting buyers in high-risk areas [11] Mortgage Industry Developments - Marr Labs is utilizing AI to streamline the mortgage lifecycle, helping lenders reduce origination costs and improve borrower engagement [2] - Mission Servicing Residential is offering flexible execution options and operational efficiencies for mortgage servicing rights (MSR) purchasers [3] - Flyhomes provides a solution for borrowers facing home sale contingencies, allowing them to qualify for up to 50% more when purchasing a new home [6] Regulatory and Guidance Changes - Freddie Mac has issued alternative procedures for mortgage lenders to follow during the shutdown, including waiving employment verification for federal employees [9][10] - Ginnie Mae will continue to perform necessary functions to ensure market stability during the shutdown, including the issuance of mortgage-backed securities [12] Labor Market Insights - The September ADP private-sector jobs report indicated a loss of 32,000 jobs, highlighting a weakening labor market [14] - Despite the absence of key economic data due to the shutdown, the Federal Reserve is still expected to proceed with a 25-basis point rate cut [15] Mortgage Rate Trends - Mortgage rates have increased for the second consecutive week, with the 30-year and 15-year rates rising to 6.34% and 5.55%, respectively [16]