Summary of China Property Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, highlighting significant declines in investment, completion rates, and home prices as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for October 2025. Key Points and Arguments Investment and Sales Trends - **Real Estate Investment (REI)** dropped by **22.5% year-over-year** in October, worsening from a **21.6% decline** in September, marking the sharpest decline since November 2022 [1] - **Completion rates** fell by **28% year-over-year**, a significant drop from a **1.5% increase** in September [1] - **New construction starts** decreased by **29% year-over-year**, compared to a **14% decline** in September [1] - **Residential sales** saw a **25% decline**, with the gross floor area (GFA) sold down **20%**, both representing the largest retreats since May 2024 [1] - The **70-cities price index** showed a widening decline, with new home prices down **0.5% month-over-month** and secondary home prices down **0.7% month-over-month** [1] Macro Economic Context - October exports experienced a **1.1% decline**, the first drop in eight months, while fixed asset investment (FAI) missed expectations with a **12% decline** [1] - Credit data remained soft, with new loans and total social financing (TSF) at **RMB 0.2 trillion** and **RMB 0.8 trillion**, respectively, below consensus estimates [1] - Retail sales showed stability with a **2.9% increase**, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded expectations [1] Local Government Initiatives - Local governments are promoting high-quality property development under the **15th Five-Year Plan**, with new rules linking completed home sales to new land sales [2] - For instance, Pingjiang County in Hunan requires completed home sales for new land acquisitions, with completed homes accounting for **62%** of local sales [2] - Fujian's Fuzhou is linking pre-sales approvals to property firms' credit profiles, and Guangzhou mandates **100% pre-fabrication** for new residential lands starting in 2026 [2] Market Dynamics - Secondary sales in **18 key cities** dropped by **29% year-over-year** in October, with average weekly volumes at **21,000 units**, the second-lowest year-to-date [3] - Listings in **39 cities** remained flat month-over-month, but Tier-1 cities saw a **1.5% increase** [3] - The flexibility in secondary price cuts may lead to continued price weakness and shift demand from new homes to the secondary market [3] Sector Outlook - The property sector is expected to experience range-bound trading, with limited new property policies anticipated apart from execution urgencies [4] - Property sales are likely to remain soft in **Q4 2025** due to high bases and limited support from easing measures in low-tier cities [4] - However, top-10 cities are showing mild growth, with **82%** of listed companies' land acquisitions occurring in these areas, and luxury home sales are outperforming with improved margins [4] - Preferred investment targets include companies with luxury and quality products, such as Jinmao, C&D, CRL, and COLI, which has shown strong sales in Tier-1 cities [4] Additional Insights - The **National Residential Inventory** reached **396 million sqm** by October 2025, indicating a significant amount of unsold inventory [24] - The **transaction amount** for overall real estate in October was **RMB 598 billion**, reflecting a **25.5% decline** year-over-year [9] - The **average weekly primary transaction volume** in October was down **35.4% year-over-year**, indicating a significant slowdown in market activity [27] Conclusion The China property market is facing substantial challenges with declining investment, sales, and prices. Local government initiatives aim to stimulate high-quality development, but the overall outlook remains cautious, particularly for the remainder of 2025. Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and luxury offerings amidst the ongoing market volatility.

Financial Restructuring - Country Garden plans to issue up to $13 billion in mandatory convertible bonds [1] - This move is part of one of China's largest restructurings [1] Real Estate Crisis Impact - The restructuring occurs amid a real estate crisis that has triggered record defaults [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on various sectors, with specific "Buy" ratings for companies such as AIA Group, ASMPT, Atour, Hengrui, Sunny Optical, Tencent, and others [13][14][28][33]. Core Insights - The 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) emphasizes technological innovation, consumption rebalancing, and building a strong domestic market, which are expected to drive growth in sectors like technology, healthcare, and renewables [14][29]. - The report anticipates a stable external environment for China, with net exports remaining a key growth driver despite potential challenges from high bases and external demand uncertainties [7]. - The healthcare sector is highlighted as a key beneficiary of government policies, with a focus on innovation and globalization, particularly in medical devices and pharmaceuticals [29]. - The consumer sector is shifting towards experience and service consumption, with a growing emphasis on well-being and the silver economy, indicating potential growth areas for companies in these segments [27]. Economics - The report projects a growth target of around 5.0% YoY for 2026, with a focus on policy continuity and structural support for consumption [7]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to become a focal point, with potential for significant movements as trade tensions ease and internationalization efforts continue [7]. Commodities - The report notes a shift in China's commodity fundamentals due to economic transitions, with a focus on domestic demand and energy self-sufficiency [9][10]. - The Action Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry indicates a shift towards high-quality growth, with supply growth expected to remain constrained [9]. Sector Views - **Autos and Parts**: The sector is poised for growth driven by advancements in Robotaxi and ADAS technologies, with key players expected to benefit from commercialization efforts [19]. - **Banks**: The banking sector is expected to outperform due to positive earnings growth and attractive dividend yields, particularly among large H-share banks [22]. - **Brokers**: The report highlights a trend of households reallocating wealth into equities, benefiting brokers as market proxies [26]. - **Consumer**: Key investment themes include a shift towards experiential consumption and a focus on well-being, with specific companies identified as top buys [27][28]. - **Healthcare**: Innovation and globalization are seen as critical drivers, with a focus on companies with strong pipelines and global expansion capabilities [29]. - **Insurance**: The sector is viewed positively, with opportunities arising from comprehensive enhancements across various business lines [33]. Top Buys - The report lists several top buy recommendations across sectors, including AIA Group, Hengrui, Tencent, and Anta, among others, indicating strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [13][14][28][33].

Country Garden, one of the biggest casualties of China’s real estate crisis, is wrapping up its $14.1 billion offshore debt restructuring after more than two years, with creditors likely to approve its plan in a vote on Wednesday https://t.co/jQMmhTEaZX ...

Summary of China Property Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Property - **Event**: CPC Forth Plenary Session (20-23 Oct) Key Points and Arguments 1. **Development Model and Economic Focus**: The Plenary emphasized promoting high-quality development and advancing people-centric urbanization, indicating a shift in focus from real estate to manufacturing and technology sectors. The property sector is expected to account for an estimated 13% of GDP by 2025, down from a peak of 32% [1][1][1] 2. **Economic Stabilization**: The limited mention of property and absence of new stimulus measures suggest a focus on stabilization rather than stimulus. The decline in real estate investment (REI) was offset by growth in other sectors, contributing to a resilient GDP growth of 4.8% in Q3 2025 [1][1][1] 3. **Impact on Household Confidence**: With property assets constituting 66% of household assets, the decline in home prices is negatively affecting household confidence and consumption, particularly among the working class. Measures to support home prices in core cities are anticipated by 2026 [1][1][1] 4. **New Development Model**: The new development model aims to transform the property industry by focusing on quality improvement rather than scale expansion. This shift is expected to benefit luxury-home builders and landlords of recurring profit [1][1][1] 5. **Three-Pronged Housing System**: The proposed housing system includes commodity housing for high-end buyers, rental housing for urban migrants, and social housing for low-income classes. It is expected that rental and social housing could account for approximately 45% of supply in the future [2][2][2] 6. **Optimization of Production Factors**: A linkage mechanism to optimize the allocation of production factors (people, housing, land, and capital) is proposed to coordinate land supply, property supply, and government budget in relation to population flow [2][2][2] 7. **Property Development Improvements**: Recommendations include improving property development, financing, sales systems, and supervision, as well as deepening urban renewal in key cities [2][2][2] 8. **Promotion of Good-Quality Homes**: The focus will be on renovating aged buildings, energy-saving measures, and adopting advanced construction technologies [2][2][2] Additional Important Content - **Analyst Ratings and Valuations**: The report includes various company valuations and ratings, indicating a significant NAV discount for many property companies as of October 23, 2025. The average NAV discount for H-share companies is noted to be -65% [5][8][8] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report provides investment ratings for various companies, with a mix of "Buy," "Neutral," and "Sell" ratings based on expected total returns and risk assessments [22][24][24] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the China property sector, highlighting the shift in focus towards stabilization and quality improvement in the industry.

Summary of Key Points from the China Property Monthly Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese property market**, highlighting trends in primary and secondary sales, construction activities, and developer strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Sales Performance**: - In September 2025, nationwide primary sales volume and value decreased by **11%** and **12%** year-over-year (yoy), respectively, which was in line with expectations. However, secondary sales volume increased by **16%** yoy, exceeding expectations [2][10][28]. - The average selling price (ASP) for primary properties declined by **0.4%** month-over-month (mom), while secondary ASPs fell by **0.6%** mom, indicating continued pricing weakness [10][28]. 2. **Construction Activities**: - Construction activities were generally better than expected, with new starts declining by **14%** yoy in September, while completions showed a positive trend with a **1.5%** yoy increase [10][28]. - Property fixed asset investment (FAI) saw a significant decline of **21%** yoy in September, marking a record high decline for a single month since 2023 [2][10]. 3. **Developer Strategies**: - Developers' land acquisition profitability improved slightly month-over-month, with an average of **54%** of contract sales being allocated to new land acquisitions, carrying an average project-level gross profit margin (GPM) of **26%** [11][78]. - Developers are focusing on strategic regions, particularly in Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities, which accounted for **74%** of their land acquisitions [11][81]. 4. **Market Expectations**: - Looking ahead to October, expectations include continued price weakness, particularly in secondary ASPs, while primary ASPs in high-tier cities may remain more resilient [3][12]. - The anticipated decline in primary transaction volume and value is expected to moderate, while secondary transaction volume is projected to revert to negative territory due to unfavorable base effects [3][12]. 5. **Policy and Economic Environment**: - There is rising market expectation for new policy support to the housing sector amid ongoing market softness and uncertainties in US-China trade policies [4][10]. - Upcoming major government conferences may lead to policies aimed at boosting aggregate demand, which could positively impact the housing market [4][10]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Liquidity Challenges**: - Developers are facing a liquidity gap estimated at **Rmb3.3 trillion** for 2025, which is critical for their operational sustainability [59][62]. - The funding gap is primarily driven by difficulties in selling aged inventory and competition from new projects, which are more appealing to buyers [59][62]. 2. **Demand-Side Indicators**: - The overall demand score for the property market slightly dropped to **39 out of 100**, indicating a challenging environment for home purchases [58][60]. - Home affordability remains a concern, with historical trough-level home purchase costs and potential for more affordability-boosting measures [58][60]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: - Sentiment in the secondary market has deteriorated, with a decline in new home search activity and a slow turnover pace in secondary transactions [58][60]. 4. **Geographic Diversification**: - Developers are diversifying their land acquisition strategies geographically, with notable activity in lower-tier cities, reflecting a shift in focus to areas with potential growth [19][81]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the China Property Monthly Tracker, providing insights into the current state and future expectations of the Chinese property market.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of US-China tensions, the Asia IG space widened 3-7bps across the board yesterday, with better selling on certain bonds and better buying on others [2] - China's export resilience strengthens its position in the trade war, leading to a revision of the 2025 export growth forecast from 3% to 4.5%, while maintaining the 2025 import growth forecast at 1.5%. The USD/RMB rate may appreciate from 7.13 to 7.1 by year-end and 7.05 by the end of 2026 [4][15][20] - China Water Affairs (CWAHK) proposes to issue a 5NC3 USD senior blue bond, with the FV of the new CWAHK 30 estimated at 6% [8] Summary by Directory Trading Desk Comments - Asia IG space widened 3-7bps due to US-China tension, with better selling on TW lifers, China TMTs, Japanese banks' bonds, and Southeast Asian names. Some bonds like FAEACO 12.814 Perp and NWDEVLs/LIFUNGs/FOSUNI 26 - 29s decreased in price. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29s and FTLNHD 26/FUTLAN 28 were lower, while some SOE property names had better buying. In Southeast Asia, VLLPM 27 - 29s edged up, and VEDLN 28 - 33s/GLPSPs were down. Long - end Yankee AT1s weakened in the morning and recovered slightly [2] - In the LGFV space, activities picked up with new CNH issues, and the space had a stable session with moderate two - way flows [3] - This morning, there were two - way flows on LGFV names. HAOHUAs recovered 3 - 5bps and HYUELEs recovered 5bps in Asia IG space, while NOMURA and Australian long - end Ts2 widened 2 - 3bps. CWAHK 26 had buyers and was 0.1pt higher [4] Marco News Recap - On Monday, S&P (+1.56%), Dow (+1.29%), and Nasdaq (+2.21%) were higher. The US bond market was closed for Columbus Day, and the UST yield was unchanged, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.52%/3.65%/4.05%/4.63% [7] Desk Analyst Comments - CWAHK proposes to issue a 5NC3 USD senior blue bond (Ba1/BB+/-), with the FV of the new CWAHK 30 at 6% considering its CWAHK 26 and peers' valuations, adjusted for rating and tenor differential. The issuance size should be capped at its remaining offshore - issuance quota of USD200mn [8] - The net proceeds will be used to repay offshore debt and finance eligible green projects. The new CWAHK 30 will have a CoC put at 101 [10] - CWAHK is a holding company operating mainly through PRC subsidiaries. The new CWAHK 30 will be guaranteed by non - PRC - incorporated subsidiary guarantors [11] - CWAHK is one of the largest water supply companies in China, focusing on water supply and sewage treatment, generating stable cash flow from exclusive concession rights in 58 districts. It serves various end - users with potential coverage of over 30mn people [12] - In FY25, CWAHK generated HKD11.7bn of revenue and HKD3.4bn of operating cash flow, with an estimated free cash flow of HKD40mn. Total debt was HKD25.6bn, and its operating performance weakened, with revenue and EBIT down c9%. Coverage ratios also weakened [13] - CWAHK is listed in Hong Kong, with the chairman and founder owning 27.4%, ORIX Corp and affiliates holding 27.2%, and Great Wall Life Insurance holding 6.0% [14] China Economy - China's export growth beat expectations as exports to Africa, Latin America, and the EU picked up. Exports of integrated circuits and ships remained robust, while personal consumption goods were subdued. Imports rebounded across the board, especially in processing trade. China's rare earth export control is a countermeasure to US semiconductor export restrictions. Trade tensions may intensify in the next two weeks before potentially easing after a possible Trump - Xi meeting [15] - Exports rebounded in September, reaching 8.3% YoY from 4.4% in August, beating market expectations. Exports to the US remained in deep contraction, while shipments to Africa, the EU, and Latin America accelerated. Exports to ASEAN moderated. Since the tariff shocks, exports to ASEAN and Africa have increased significantly, making up for over 120% of the export losses to the US since April. Trade surplus narrowed to US$91bn in September [16] - Integrated circuits and ships had strong growth in September, while personal consumption goods moderated. Low - value - added exports and housing - related products were hit by tariffs. Rare earth exports rebounded despite additional export controls [17] - China's imports increased to 7.4% in September from 1.3% in August, beating market expectations. Imports from the US steadied at - 16%. Import value of processing trade accelerated. For energy products, crude oil import volume rose, while coal and natural gas dropped. Raw material imports had mixed results, and crop imports picked up [18] Offshore Asia New Issues - No offshore Asia new issues were priced today [22] - There are several issuers in the pipeline, including the Macau Branch of Bank of China Limited, Jinan Hi - tech International, and KEB Hana Bank, with different tenors, coupons, and issue ratings [23] News and Market Color - Yesterday, 118 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB138bn. Month - to - date, 191 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB212bn, a 19.7% yoy increase [24] - Indonesia plans to shorten the permit process for geothermal projects to three months [24] - Country Garden's top shareholder agrees to a USD1.14bn debt - to - equity swap and will hold scheme meetings on 5 Nov'25 for creditors to vote on its offshore restructuring plan [24] - Freeport Indonesia halts the Gresik smelter due to a mine landslide [24] - China Energy Overseas will redeem GEZHOU 4.15 Perp of USD200mn on 25 Nov'25 [24] - LG Electronics expects a 8.4% yoy drop in 3Q25 operating profit due to higher tariffs [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive update on the fixed - income market, including bond price movements, macroeconomic news, and company - specific analyses. It also offers insights into the Chinese economy and makes predictions on future policy adjustments [2][7][20] - In the fixed - income market, different bonds show various price changes, influenced by factors such as market sentiment, company performance, and macroeconomic conditions [2][4] - Regarding the Chinese economy, there are signs of mild reflation in upstream sectors, but the economic growth may face slowdown pressure in Q4 2025, which could lead to demand - side stimulus and supply - side capacity reduction policies [20][23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Desk Comments - Last Friday, recent IG new issues were overall unchanged to 1bp wider. There were buying flows on HOKKEL 4.587 09/04/30 and two - way flows on OCBCSP 4.55 35s. Some bonds widened, tightened, or remained unchanged. In Chinese properties, some bonds were 0.1 - 0.6pt higher. There were selling flows on front - end Chinese banks/leasing names. Korean corps widened, and S&P changed SAMTOT rating outlook to negative. In Japan, there were selling flows on MUFG/NOMURA curves, and Japanese insurance hybrids edged up. In SEA, GLPSP bonds continued to grow [2] - This morning, there were selling flows for HSBC/MIZUHO/SUMIBK 5 - 6yr floaters. PTTGC 51 - 52s and TOPTB 49 were 0.7 - 2pts higher. FAEACO 12.814 Perp was 1.1pts lower. There were buyers for CNH short - term bonds in LGFVs, and ZHOSHK 28 was largely unchanged [4] 3.2 Macro News Recap - Last Friday, S&P (-0.64%), Dow (-0.20%), and Nasdaq (-1.15%) were lower. The US Jul'25 Core PCE Price Index was +0.3% mom/+2.9% yoy, in line with market expectations. UST yield was lower while 10/30 yr UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.59%/3.68%/4.23%/4.92% [7] 3.3 Desk Analyst Comments - Fubon Life proposes to issue 10.25yr USD T2 bond. The fair value of the new FUBON is considered to be T + 95 - 100, adjusted for tenor and new issue premiums compared to its peers. Fubon Life's credit profile is slightly better than CATLIF in terms of profitability and capital strength [8][9][12] - ZHOSHK's credit profile remains solid. Despite the negative gross margin of new car sales in 1H25, it has consistent positive FCF generation, reducing debts, and low near - term refinancing pressure. The report maintains a buy on ZHOSHK 5.98 01/30/28 [17][18] 3.4 China Economy - China's manufacturing PMI edged higher in August, with improvements in production and demand. There is mild reflation in upstream sectors due to the anti - involution campaign. Non - manufacturing PMI picked up as the service sector recovered, but construction extended its weakness. The economic growth may face slowdown pressure in Q4 2025, and the report expects a 10 bps LPR and 50 bps cut, along with possible transfer payment policies [20][21][23] 3.5 Offshore Asia New Issues - There were no offshore Asia new issues priced or in the pipeline today [25][26] 3.6 News and Market Color - Last Friday, 56 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB30bn. In Aug'25, 2,193 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,833bn, an 8.9% yoy decrease. There are also various company - specific news such as Alibaba's adjusted EBITDA fall, Bank of China's net interest income drop, etc. [27][31]

Financial Performance - Country Garden's net loss widened sharply in the first half of this year [1] Industry Trends - The report highlights the entrenched property woes in China [1]

Country Garden Warns First Half Loss May Widen to $3 Billion https://t.co/8fjTRYMELh ...