Financial Performance and Key Metrics - In 2025, Match Group achieved total revenue of $3.5 billion, flat year-over-year, and generated over $1 billion in free cash flow, returning nearly $800 million through share buybacks and $200 million in dividends, reducing diluted shares outstanding by 7% year-over-year [4][20][25] - For Q4 2025, total revenue was $878 million, up 2% year-over-year, with Adjusted EBITDA of $370 million, up 14%, representing an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 42% [19][20] - Tinder's Q4 direct revenue was $464 million, down 3%, while Hinge's Q4 direct revenue was $186 million, up 26% [21][22] Business Line Performance - Tinder's full-year direct revenue was $1.9 billion, down 4%, while Hinge's full-year direct revenue was $691 million, up 26% [21][22] - Emerging and Evergreen (E&E) direct revenue in Q4 was $145 million, down 7%, and Match Group Asia's direct revenue was $66 million, down 2% [22][23] - Hinge's MAU grew nearly 50% year-over-year in 2025, with expectations to deliver over $100 million in direct revenue in 2026 from European expansion markets [14][15] Market Performance - In Q4, MAU trends improved in 15 countries, with significant improvements in South Korea and Japan, indicating a positive shift in user engagement [49][50] - New registration trends improved significantly, with a decline of only 5% year-over-year in Q4 compared to a 12% decline in Q2 [8][49] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is focused on a three-phase transformation: reset, revitalize, and drive resurgence, with a strong emphasis on user outcomes and product improvements [3][4] - The strategy includes a significant marketing shift towards bottom-of-funnel performance marketing, leveraging user-generated content to enhance brand perception [42][72] - Hinge is positioned as a leader in the focused dating space, with plans for continued international expansion and product innovation [14][67] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the turnaround efforts at Tinder, with early indicators showing improvements in user engagement and retention [10][18] - The company expects flat total revenue in 2026, with continued strong growth at Hinge and challenges in other segments [28][29] - Management highlighted the importance of AI in enhancing user experience and safety, which is expected to drive long-term growth [18][32] Other Important Information - The company plans to host its first-ever product event for Tinder in March 2026 to showcase upcoming features and innovations [11] - A cash dividend of $0.20 per share was declared, representing a 5% increase from the previous dividend [26][27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Early learnings from Project Aurora and its impact on user metrics - Management shared that Project Aurora in Australia led to significant improvements in user metrics, including Sparks and MAU, indicating effective product changes and marketing strategies [40][41] Question: Drivers of MAU improvements in various countries - Management attributed MAU improvements to enhancements in recommendation algorithms, marketing efforts, and features like Double Date and FaceCheck [50] Question: Measuring relevance for women and its impact on user retention - Management noted that improvements in features aimed at women, such as Double Date, have led to higher retention rates and increased MAU among female users [58][59] Question: Timeline for seeing improvements in payers following user engagement metrics - Management expects improvements in payer trends to follow the positive changes in MAU and registration metrics throughout 2026 [61] Question: Insights on the leadership transition at Hinge and portfolio strategy - Management confirmed a seamless transition in Hinge's leadership and emphasized the potential for growth in the focused dating segment, with ongoing exploration of new concepts and acquisitions [66][68]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, Match Group reported total revenue of $878 million, up 2% year-over-year, and flat on a foreign exchange neutral basis [19] - For the full year 2025, total revenue was $3.5 billion, flat both as-reported and FXM [20] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $370 million, up 14%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 42% [20] - For the full year 2025, adjusted EBITDA was $1.2 billion, down 1%, representing a margin of 35% [20] - Free cash flow for 2025 was $1 billion, with a significant portion returned to shareholders through buybacks and dividends [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tinder's Q4 direct revenue was $464 million, down 3%, with payers declining 8% to 8.8 million [21] - Hinge's Q4 direct revenue was $186 million, up 26%, with payers increasing 17% to 1.9 million [21] - E&E's Q4 direct revenue was $145 million, down 7%, with payers down 14% to 2.1 million [22] - Match Group Asia's Q4 direct revenue was $66 million, down 2% [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Globally, new registration trends improved significantly, with a decline of only 5% year-over-year in Q4 compared to a 12% decline in Q2 [8] - Monthly Active Users (MAU) declined 9% year-over-year in Q4, an improvement from a 10% decline in Q3 [8] - In 15 countries, MAU declines improved by at least 2 points, representing about one-third of Tinder's global MAU [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a three-phase transformation: reset, revitalize, and drive resurgence, with user outcomes prioritized [3] - Tinder's product roadmap for 2026 aims to address Gen Z pain points, focusing on relevance, match quality, and safety [10] - Hinge is expanding into new markets, including Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, and India, with strong user growth and revenue momentum [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects Tinder's direct revenue declines in 2026 to be similar to 2025 due to ongoing product changes [5] - The company anticipates continued strong direct revenue growth at Hinge while facing headwinds in other segments [5] - Management is optimistic about the turnaround at Tinder, citing improvements in user engagement metrics [9] Other Important Information - The company plans to host its first-ever product event for Tinder in March 2026 to showcase upcoming features and innovations [11] - A cash dividend of $0.20 per share has been declared, representing a 5% increase from the previous dividend [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Early learnings from Project Aurora and its impact on user metrics - Management shared that Australia saw significant improvements in user metrics due to product enhancements and marketing strategies [40][41] Question: Engagement improvements in 15 countries - Management noted that improvements in recommendation algorithms, Double Date, FaceCheck, and marketing contributed to MAU growth in key countries [49][50] Question: Measuring relevance for women and its impact on payers - Management highlighted that initiatives like Double Date have improved female user engagement and retention, which is expected to translate into payer growth over time [58][61]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, Match Group reported total revenue of $878 million, up 2% year-over-year, and flat on a foreign exchange neutral basis [19] - For the full year 2025, total revenue was $3.5 billion, flat both as-reported and FXM [20] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $370 million, up 14%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 42% [20] - For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $1.2 billion, down 1%, representing a margin of 35% [20] - Free cash flow for 2025 was $1 billion, with a significant portion returned to shareholders through buybacks and dividends [26][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tinder's Q4 direct revenue was $464 million, down 3%, with payers declining 8% to 8.8 million [21] - Hinge's Q4 direct revenue was $186 million, up 26%, with payers increasing 17% to 1.9 million [22] - E&E's Q4 direct revenue was $145 million, down 7%, with payers down 14% to 2.1 million [23] - Match Group Asia's Q4 direct revenue was $66 million, down 2% [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Globally, new registration trends improved significantly, with a decline of only 5% year-over-year in Q4 compared to a 12% decline in Q2 [6] - Monthly active users (MAU) were down 9% year-over-year in Q4, an improvement from a 10% decline in Q3 [7] - In 15 countries, MAU declines improved by at least 2 points, representing about one-third of Tinder's global MAU [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a three-phase transformation: reset, revitalize, and drive resurgence, with an emphasis on user outcomes [3] - Tinder's product roadmap for 2026 aims to address Gen Z pain points, focusing on relevance, match quality, and user safety [10] - Hinge is expanding into new markets, including Latin America and Asia, with strong user growth and revenue momentum [14][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects Tinder's direct revenue declines in 2026 to be similar to 2025 due to ongoing product changes [5] - The company anticipates relatively flat total revenue year-over-year in 2026, with adjusted EBITDA margins in line with the previous year [5] - Management is optimistic about the turnaround efforts at Tinder, citing improvements in user engagement metrics [9][10] Other Important Information - The company plans to host its first-ever product event for Tinder in March 2026 to showcase upcoming features and innovations [11] - A cash dividend of $0.20 per share has been declared, representing a 5% increase from the previous dividend [27] - The company expects free cash flow of $1.085 billion to $1.135 billion in 2026, an 8% year-over-year increase [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Early learnings from Project Aurora and its impact on user metrics - Management shared that improvements in Australia showed positive trends in Sparks and MAU, indicating effective product changes and marketing strategies [39][40] Question: Engagement improvements in 15 countries - Management noted that improvements in recommendation algorithms, Double Date, FaceCheck, and marketing efforts contributed to MAU growth in key countries [48] Question: Measuring relevance for women and its impact on payers - Management highlighted that initiatives like Double Date have significantly improved female user engagement and retention, which is expected to translate into payer growth over time [56][59]

Q4 2025 Supplemental Materials FEBRUARY 3, 2026 February X, 2025 Q4 2025 | SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIALS Disclosures and Definitions Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation includes certain non -GAAP financial measures in addition to financial measures presented in accordance with U. S. GAAP. These non -GAAP financial measures are in addition to, and not a substitute for or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP. See pages 20 -38 for a reconciliatio n of the non ...

Match Group beat Wall Street's estimates on Tuesday but issued weak guidance as it invests in new artificial intelligence initiatives to turn around declining user growth at Tinder. Shares popped 12% during extended trading. The stock closed 8% lower on Tuesday.Here's how the company did versus LSEG estimates:Earnings per share: 83 cents vs. 70 cents expectedRevenue: $878 million vs. $871 million expectedThe dating platform issued lackluster guidance for 2026, forecasting between $3.41 billion and $3.54 bil ...

Financial Performance - Match Group achieved Total Revenue of $3.5 billion in 2025, flat both as reported and on a foreign exchange neutral basis[46] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $1.2 billion, down 1%, with an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 35%[46] - In Q4 2025, Total Revenue was $878 million, up 2%, with an Adjusted EBITDA of $370 million, representing a margin of 42%[45] - For the full year 2025, Match Group delivered Operating Cash Flow of $1.1 billion and Free Cash Flow of $1.0 billion[50] - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $3,487,197,000, representing a significant increase compared to the previous year[68] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2025, reached $1,236,391,000, reflecting strong operational performance[72] - Net income attributable to Match Group, Inc. shareholders for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $613,446,000, indicating robust profitability[68] - Free cash flow for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $1,023,615,000, showcasing effective cash management[71] - Operating income margin for the year ended December 31, 2025, was 25%, demonstrating operational efficiency[69] - The company reported a net income margin of 18% for the year ended December 31, 2025, indicating solid profitability[68] Future Projections - For Q1 2026, Total Revenue is expected to be between $850 million and $860 million, representing a 2% to 3% year-over-year increase[53] - For the full year 2026, Total Revenue is expected to be between $3.410 billion and $3.535 billion, approximately flat year-over-year[55] - Match Group expects Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 to be between $1.280 billion and $1.325 billion, with a margin of 37.5%[56] - Free Cash Flow for 2026 is expected to be between $1.085 billion and $1.135 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase[62] - Net income attributable to Match Group, Inc. shareholders is projected to be between $160 million and $165 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026, and between $650 million and $670 million for the year ended December 31, 2026[76] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to range from $315 million to $320 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026, and from $1.280 billion to $1.325 billion for the year ended December 31, 2026[76] - Revenue is forecasted to be between $850 million and $860 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026, and between $3.410 billion and $3.535 billion for the year ended December 31, 2026[76] Shareholder Returns - Free Cash Flow exceeded $1 billion in 2025, with nearly $800 million returned to shareholders through share buybacks and nearly $200 million in dividends[6] - The Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.20 per share, a 5% increase from the prior quarterly dividend[51] - The company plans to use 100% of Free Cash Flow for buybacks, dividends, and net settling employee equity awards over time[63] Business Strategy and Growth - Match Group is focused on a three-phase transformation strategy: Reset, Revitalize, and Resurgence, with the company currently in the Revitalize phase[3] - Tinder's Direct Revenue is expected to decline year-over-year in 2026, similar to 2025, due to ongoing product changes aimed at improving user outcomes[7] - Hinge's user growth in 2025 was nearly 50% year-over-year, ending the year with over 3.3 million Monthly Active Users (MAU) in European expansion markets[29] - Hinge is projected to deliver over $100 million in Direct Revenue in 2026 from its European expansion markets[29] - The company plans to expand Hinge into three additional Latin American markets and its first APAC market, India, in 2026[33] Revenue Breakdown - Tinder Q4 Direct Revenue was $464 million, down 3%, with Adjusted EBITDA of $263 million, up 1%, representing a margin of 55%[7] - Hinge Q4 Direct Revenue was $186 million, up 26%, with Adjusted EBITDA of $67 million, up 54%, representing a margin of 36%[7] - E&E Q4 Direct Revenue was $145 million, down 7%, with Adjusted EBITDA of $48 million, flat year-over-year, representing a margin of 33%[7] - Tinder Direct Revenue, as reported, decreased by $12.2 million or 3% to $463.8 million in 2025 compared to 2024[78] - Hinge Direct Revenue increased by $38.8 million or 26% to $186.5 million in 2025 compared to 2024[78] - Azar Direct Revenue for the year ended December 31 was $155.8 million, reflecting a 1% increase from the previous year[79] Key Performance Metrics - The company emphasizes the importance of Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow as key performance metrics, which are used for internal budgeting and management compensation[88] - Revenue Excluding Foreign Exchange Effects is calculated by translating current period revenues using prior period exchange rates, which helps in understanding period-over-period comparisons[93] - Direct Revenue includes subscription and à la carte revenue received directly from end users, while Indirect Revenue primarily consists of advertising revenue[98] - Payers represent unique users from whom Direct Revenue is earned, averaged over the reporting period[99] - Revenue Per Payer (RPP) is calculated as Direct Revenue divided by the number of Payers, further divided by the number of months in the period[100] - Monthly Active Users (MAU) are unique registered users who have visited the brand's app or website in a given month[101] Expenses and Investments - Capital expenditures for the year ended December 31, 2025, amounted to $56,765,000, reflecting ongoing investment in growth[71] - Interest expense for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $147,551,000, impacting net income[72] - Stock-based compensation expense for the year ended December 31, 2025, totaled $258,202,000, affecting overall profitability[72] Accounting and Financial Reporting - Depreciation is a non-cash expense calculated using the straight-line method over the estimated useful lives of assets[95] - Amortization of intangible assets and impairments of goodwill are non-cash expenses related to acquisitions, with identifiable assets amortized over their estimated lives[96] - Leverage on a gross basis is calculated as principal debt balance divided by Adjusted EBITDA, while net leverage accounts for cash and cash equivalents[104] - Forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance and business prospects are subject to uncertainties and risks that could materially affect actual results[105]

Group 1 - Match Group, the parent company of Tinder, has forecasted first-quarter revenue above estimates, indicating early gains from its turnaround efforts [1] - Following the announcement, Match Group's shares rose approximately 12% in extended trading [1]

Industry Overview - Software stocks are experiencing strong demand driven by digital transformation and the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), including generative AI and Agentic AI moving into real business applications [1] - Key growth drivers include software-as-a-service models, cloud migration, hybrid work models, and increased usage of online payment platforms [1] Factors Favoring Software Stocks - The proliferation of AI-powered applications in various sectors such as voice recognition, telemedicine, and business management software is benefiting industry players [2] - The adoption of cloud-based services, IoT, AR/VR devices, and accelerated 5G deployment are enhancing software stock performance [3] - Rising cyberattacks are prompting enterprises to invest more in cloud-based security solutions, shifting preference towards software-defined models for agility [4] Customer-Centric Trends - A customer-centric approach allows users to perform actions with minimal provider intervention, while pay-as-you-go models enable scalability for different user needs [5] - Subscription-based business models ensure recurring revenues, with the affordability of SaaS models particularly benefiting small and medium-sized businesses [5] Company Highlights Snowflake - Expected to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 25, with a Zacks Rank 3 and an Earnings ESP of +8.08% [8] - Consensus estimate for revenues is $1.25 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 26.9%, while earnings are expected to be 27 cents per share, down 10% from the previous year [9] - Strong customer growth driven by AI capabilities and partnerships with industry leaders like SAP and Google Cloud [10][11] Match Group - Scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 3, with a Zacks Rank 3 and an Earnings ESP of +3.38% [12] - Revenue consensus is $871.6 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 1.3%, with earnings expected at $1.01 per share, up 23.2% [12] - Benefits from a first-mover advantage in online dating, with Tinder as a key growth driver supported by innovative features and international expansion [13] Synopsys - Set to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 25, with a Zacks Rank 3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.38% [14] - Revenue consensus is $2.39 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 64.3%, with earnings expected at $3.57 per share, up 17.8% [14] - Growth driven by demand for advanced technology and design solutions, with strong traction for its Fusion Compiler product [15] Cloudflare - Expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 10, with an Earnings ESP of +0.20% and a Zacks Rank 3 [16] - Revenue consensus is $590.17 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 28.3%, with earnings per share expected at 27 cents, suggesting a 42.1% increase [16] - Benefits from a growing customer base and robust security solutions, with a dollar-based net retention rate of 119% in Q3 2025 [17]

Core Insights - Apptopia's Q4 2025 earnings preview for Match Group indicates that Tinder's performance is expected to exceed Wall Street's consensus expectations [1][8] Group 1: Tinder Performance - Apptopia's Mobile Performance Index (MPI) shows significant year-over-year growth in Tinder Payers for Q4 2025, while the consensus outlook suggests only modest acceleration [2] - Despite a 4.2% year-over-year decline in downloads in the United States, there has been sequential improvement since Q2 2025 [4] - Daily active users in the US fell by 7.5% year-over-year, but engagement metrics, particularly among Gen Z, are improving, with average time spent per DAU for younger users (aged 17-25) increasing by 13.9% year-over-year [4][8] Group 2: Hinge Performance - Hinge's US downloads are down 4.1% year-over-year, but daily active users have increased by 7.1% year-over-year [7] - Engagement metrics for Hinge are weakening, with average time spent per DAU for younger users (aged 17-25) declining by 29.7% year-over-year [7] - Male users of Hinge experienced a significant drop in average time spent per DAU, decreasing by 25.4% year-over-year, while female users saw a slight increase of 4.5% [7] Group 3: Overall Market Insights - The combination of declining app downloads and rising engagement metrics for Tinder suggests a better-than-expected outcome for Tinder Payers in Q4 2025 [5] - Apptopia's MPI indicates that Match Group's Tinder performance may exceed market expectations, while Hinge's declining engagement metrics among young users require close monitoring [8]

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