Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Macy's will report a quarterly earnings of $0.14 per share, reflecting a 48.2% decline year over year, with revenues expected to be $4.46 billion, down 8% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 3.7% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price performance [3]. Key Metrics Projections - Analysts estimate 'Net Sales' to reach $4.45 billion, representing an 8.1% decline from the previous year [5]. - 'Net Sales - Other Revenue' is projected at $177.43 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 15.2% [5]. - 'Net Sales - Other Revenue - Macy's Media Network revenue, net' is expected to be $43.74 million, reflecting an 18.2% increase from the year-ago quarter [5]. Store Count Projections - Analysts forecast 'Store Count - End of Period - Bluemercury' to be 173, up from 158 in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Macy's Stores - Boxes (EOP)' is expected to reach 452, down from 503 in the same quarter last year [6]. - The average prediction for 'Consolidated Number of stores' is 687, compared to 718 a year ago [6]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Macy's shares have returned +8.2%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed +10.7% [7]. - Macy's currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance relative to the overall market in the near future [7].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For FY 2024, the company achieved net sales of $22.3 billion, with a comparable sales decline of 0.9% versus 2023, an improvement of 510 basis points [15] - GAAP diluted earnings per share were $2.07, while adjusted diluted earnings per share were $2.64 [15] - Operating cash flow reached nearly $1.3 billion, and the company ended the year with $1.3 billion in cash, an increase of $272 million from the prior year [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Macy's saw four consecutive quarters of positive growth at its first 50 reimagined locations, with initiatives including improved staffing and visual merchandising [16][17] - Bloomingdale's returned to positive annual comparable sales growth, achieving the highest fourth quarter in the company's history [18] - Blue Mercury experienced its fourth consecutive year of positive comparable sales, opening 17 new locations and remodeling seven stores [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company closed 64 underperforming Macy's stores and one Bloomingdale's location as part of its strategy to rationalize its store portfolio [27] - The company reported a return to positive digital sales growth in the fourth quarter, indicating a recovery in online shopping performance [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The "Bolder Chapter" strategy aims to enhance customer experience and create a more agile business, focusing on improving shopping experiences and operational efficiency [16][21] - The company is committed to ongoing board refreshment, with an average board tenure reduced to 4.2 years, down from 5.3 years last year [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management acknowledged the current volatility in the market but expressed confidence in the company's strategy and leadership to navigate these challenges [24] - The company remains committed to enhancing customer experience while strategically investing in growth initiatives [24] Other Important Information - The company returned $192 million to shareholders through quarterly cash dividends, reflecting a 5% increase per share from 2023 [15] - The leadership team is evolving, with Tom Edwards set to join as COO and CFO, indicating a focus on strengthening the company's financial position [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Plans to sell more of Macy's real estate? - The company is rationalizing and monetizing underperforming store locations as part of its strategy, having closed 64 Macy's and one Bloomingdale's location in 2024 [26][27] Question: Approach to board refreshment? - The company is committed to board refreshment, with a focus on having the right mix of skills and reducing average board tenure [29][30] Question: Dynamic of Macy's vendor relationships? - The company maintains strong vendor relationships and has attracted new vendors as part of its transformation strategy [31][32] Commentary: Appreciation for leadership and store updates? - The management expressed pride in the State Street store and its historical significance, emphasizing ongoing efforts to maintain its legacy [35][36]

In the latest trading session, Macy's (M) closed at $11.84, marking a -0.92% move from the previous day. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.64%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw a downswing of 0.24%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq depreciated by 0.74%. The department store operator's stock has climbed by 5.01% in the past month, exceeding the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 0.16% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.38%. Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of Macy's in its upcoming earnings discl ...

Group 1 - The article discusses Macy's, Inc. and its "Bold New Chapter" strategy, which was previously analyzed six months ago with a hold rating [1] - The author aims to identify a company's intrinsic value and find solid companies trading at a steep discount, drawing inspiration from George Soros [1] Group 2 - The author has a background in Philosophy with degrees from UCLA and the University of Oklahoma, and plans to pursue an MBA in Business with a focus on finance [1]

Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-K x ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended February 1, 2025 OR o TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to Commission file number: 1-13536 Macy's, Inc. (Address of Principal Executive Offices, including Zip Code) (Registrant's telephone number, including area c ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter net sales were approximately $7.8 billion, down from $8.1 billion in the previous year, aligning with guidance [31] - Total enterprise comparable sales increased by 0.2%, marking the highest quarterly results since Q1 2022 [31] - Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $1.8, exceeding guidance due to better-than-expected SG&A and credit card revenues [13][35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Macy's net sales decreased by 5.3%, with comparable sales down 0.9% [32] - Bloomingdale's achieved a 6.5% increase in comparable sales, the strongest fourth quarter volume in its history [17] - Blue Mercury's net sales rose by 2.4%, with comparable sales increasing by 6.2% [32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The first fifty Macy's locations saw a positive 1.2% comparable sales growth, while the remaining locations lagged behind [14] - The luxury segment, particularly Bloomingdale's, showed strong performance, indicating a robust demand in that market [17][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The "Bold New Chapter" strategy aims to return the company to sustainable profitable growth by focusing on customer needs and improving the store environment [7][8] - The company plans to close approximately 150 underperforming stores to concentrate resources on more productive locations [15][100] - Investments in digital improvements and marketing strategies are being prioritized to enhance customer experience [16][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strategic shifts made, despite acknowledging ongoing external uncertainties affecting consumer behavior [21][30] - The company anticipates a challenging environment in 2025, with guidance reflecting caution due to economic pressures [38][90] Other Important Information - The company generated $679 million in free cash flow, a 71% increase from the previous year, and returned $192 million to shareholders through dividends [11][36] - The company is committed to reducing capital expenditures while prioritizing investments that support long-term growth [21][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on 2025 and same-store sales constraints - Management highlighted progress in the first year of the strategy, with growth in the first fifty stores and closing of underperforming locations [47] Question: Drivers of SG&A rate pressure - Management indicated that SG&A pressures are being managed through reinvestment in customer experience and operational efficiencies [51] Question: Engaging various customer demographics - Management emphasized the strength of the Macy's portfolio and its ability to adapt to changing consumer needs across different demographics [58] Question: Overall consumer health and promotional levels - Management noted that consumer health remains under pressure but emphasized the importance of creating compelling offerings to drive sales [72] Question: Trends in go-forward comps and category dynamics - Management reported strong performance in ready-to-wear and beauty categories, while acknowledging challenges in the home segment [84]

Economic Overview - Pre-market indexes are showing declines, with the Dow down 414 points, S&P 500 down 71, Nasdaq down 326, and Russell 2000 down 32 points [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with the Deposit Facility now at +2.50%, indicating confidence in controlling inflation [2] - German bund yields increased by 30 basis points to around +2.85%, the highest since 1990, reflecting significant economic behavior in the EU [3] Labor Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims for last week were reported at 221K, lower than the anticipated 235K, and down from the previous week's 242K, suggesting stability in the labor market [4] - Continuing Claims rose to 1.897 million, approaching the psychological level of 1.9 million, which may indicate concerns about the robustness of the U.S. labor market [5] Productivity and Costs - Q4 Productivity was revised up by 30 basis points to +1.5%, marking the ninth consecutive upward movement in U.S. productivity [6] - Unit Labor Costs were revised down to +2.2%, lower than previous quarters, indicating a favorable trend of increased productivity alongside reduced costs [6] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit reached a record low of -$131.4 billion, exceeding expectations of -$128.7 billion, influenced by anticipated trade tariff changes [7] Market Expectations - Following positive earnings reports from Macy's, Burlington Stores, and Cracker Barrel, upcoming earnings from Broadcom and Costco are anticipated, along with data on Wholesale Inventories for January [8]

Economic Indicators - The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with the Deposit Facility now at +2.50%, signaling confidence in controlling inflation despite trade war concerns [2] - Initial Jobless Claims for last week were reported at +221K, lower than the anticipated +235K, indicating stability in the labor market [4] - Continuing Claims rose to 1.897 million, approaching the psychological level of +1.9 million, which may raise concerns about the robustness of the U.S. labor market [5] - Q4 Productivity was revised up to +1.5%, marking the ninth consecutive upward move, while Unit Labor Costs were revised down to +2.2%, indicating improved productivity and lower costs [6] - The U.S. Trade Deficit reached a record -$131.4 billion, significantly higher than the previous month's -$98.4 billion, influenced by anticipated trade tariff changes [7] Company Earnings - Earnings reports from Macy's, Burlington Stores, and Cracker Barrel exceeded expectations, while upcoming reports from Broadcom and Costco are anticipated [8]

Sales Performance - Macy's, Inc. reported fourth quarter net sales of $7.8 billion, a decrease of 4.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, with comparable sales down 1.1% on an owned basis[4]. - The company's go-forward business comparable sales were down 0.7% on an owned basis, while the First 50 locations achieved a 0.8% increase in comparable sales on an owned basis[5]. - For fiscal year 2024, net sales decreased 3.5% to $22.3 billion, with comparable sales down 2.0% on an owned basis[9]. - Net sales for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2025, were $7,768 million, a decrease from $8,120 million for the 14 weeks ended February 3, 2024[29]. - Total revenue for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025, was $23,006 million, compared to $23,866 million for the 53 weeks ended February 3, 2024, reflecting a decline of 3.6%[32]. - Comparable sales decreased by 1.1% on an owned basis for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2025, with a decrease of 2.0% for the 52 weeks[48][49]. - The company reported a decrease in comparable sales on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis of 0.2% for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2025[48]. Financial Performance - Macy's ended fiscal year 2024 with $1.3 billion in cash, generating nearly $1.3 billion of operating cash flow and $679 million of free cash flow[5]. - Net income for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025, was $582 million, a significant increase from $45 million for the 53 weeks ended February 3, 2024[37]. - Basic earnings per share for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025, were $2.10, compared to $0.16 for the previous year[32]. - Adjusted net income for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025, was $745 million, with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.64[54]. - Free cash flow for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025, was $679 million, reflecting ongoing cash generation available for investments[55]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2025, was $903 million, compared to $1,091 million for the 14 weeks ended February 3, 2024[54]. Margins and Expenses - The gross margin rate for fiscal year 2024 was 38.4%, remaining flat compared to the previous year[10]. - SG&A expenses for fiscal year 2024 were $8.3 billion, a decrease of $45 million, but as a percentage of total revenue, it increased to 36.2% due to lower total revenue[10]. - Gross margin for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025, was $8,553 million, representing 38.4% of total revenue, consistent with the previous year[32]. - The company reported a gross margin of $2,777 million, or 35.7%, for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2025, down from $2,967 million, or 36.5%, for the 14 weeks ended February 3, 2024[29]. - Other revenue for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025, was $713 million, accounting for 3.2% of net sales, compared to $774 million, or 3.4%, the previous year[39]. Future Guidance - Fiscal year 2025 guidance includes expected net sales of $21.0 billion to $21.4 billion, with comparable owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace sales projected to decline by approximately 2.0% to 0.5%[19]. - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for fiscal year 2025 is expected to be between $2.05 and $2.25[19]. Cash Flow and Assets - Cash flows from operating activities for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2025, were $1,278 million, slightly down from $1,305 million for the previous year[37]. - Total assets as of February 1, 2025, were $16,402 million, an increase from $16,246 million as of February 3, 2024[34]. - Current liabilities as of February 1, 2025, totaled $4,524 million, compared to $4,532 million the previous year[34]. Other Insights - The company emphasizes that non-GAAP financial measures should be viewed as supplemental to GAAP results, as they provide additional insights into operational performance[45]. - Macy's Media Network revenue increased by 6.7% to $64 million, reflecting growth in the number of advertisers and campaign counts[12]. - The impact of departments licensed to third parties and marketplace sales contributed positively with an increase of 1.3% for the 13 weeks ended February 1, 2025[48].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, highlighting the impact of tariffs, inflation, and economic fundamentals on major indices, while focusing on specific companies like Costco and Foot Locker as potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][21]. Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced volatility, with major indices showing monthly declines due to multiple negative factors, including tariff policies and inflation concerns. The S&P 500 index fell nearly 1% last week and 1.4% in February, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 4%, marking its largest monthly decline since April 2024. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 1% last week but still recorded a 1.6% monthly drop [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is highly anticipated, with expectations of 156,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.0%. Additionally, several Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, are expected to speak this week [5]. Company Focus: Costco - Costco is set to release its Q2 earnings report for fiscal year 2024 on March 6, with the stock price expected to experience significant volatility, projected at 4.4% based on options market data [8][10]. - Analysts have generally optimistic views on Costco's performance, with 15 upward revisions to earnings expectations and only 5 downward adjustments prior to the earnings release [10]. - The market anticipates Costco's earnings per share (EPS) to reach $4.08, a 4.1% increase from $3.92 in the same period last year, with revenue expected to grow by 9.9% to $63 billion, driven by strong grocery sales and high membership renewal rates [13]. Company Focus: Foot Locker - Foot Locker is facing significant challenges, with analysts predicting an EPS of $0.72 and a revenue decline of 2.5% to $2.32 billion due to high inflation and reduced discretionary income affecting consumer demand [21]. - The company is expected to lower its earnings outlook for the upcoming quarter, as traditional retail models struggle against the shift towards online shopping and direct-to-consumer sales [22]. - Foot Locker's stock closed at $17.32, marking a 52-week low, with a year-to-date decline of 20.4%. The company has a financial stability score of 1.5 out of 5, indicating significant operational and financial challenges [22][23].