Report Overview - Report Date: October 23, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The Russia-Ukraine crisis has eased [2][4] - **Silver**: Spot contradictions have eased, with prices rising and then falling [2][5] - **Copper**: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][9] - **Zinc**: Ranging within a certain interval [2][12] - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][16] - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][18] - **Aluminum**: The trend is oscillating and slightly bullish; Alumina is grinding at the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - **Nickel**: In the short - term, there is a narrow - range oscillation, and contradictions are still accumulating [2][23] - **Stainless Steel**: It is difficult to find an upward driving force in supply and demand, and costs limit the downside space [2][23] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Gold**: The closing prices of domestic and international gold - related contracts generally declined. For example, the daily decline of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 4.17%, and the decline of Comex Gold 2512 was 0.53%. ETF holdings decreased, and inventory increased slightly. There were multiple macro - news such as Trump canceling the meeting with Putin and the Fed's plan to relax bank capital requirements [5] - **Silver**: The daily decline of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 3.42%, and the night - session showed a slight increase. Inventory decreased significantly. Spot contradictions eased, and prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling [5] Copper - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased slightly by 0.02%. Trading volume and open interest changed, and inventory decreased. For example, Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 1,125 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons [9] - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper decreased by 400 yuan/ton. There were various macro and industrial news, such as the strong earnings season on Wall Street and Peru's decline in copper production [9][11] Zinc - **Market Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.14%. Inventory decreased, and the LME zinc cash - 3M premium increased significantly. There were news such as the bankruptcy of PrimaLend in the secondary lending market [12][13] Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased slightly by 0.09%. Inventory decreased significantly, with Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreasing by 3156 tons and LME lead inventory decreasing by 3175 tons. There were news about the strong earnings season on Wall Street and the US government shutdown [16] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 0.29%. The price of SMM 1 tin ingot increased by 7,000 yuan/ton. Inventory increased slightly, and there were multiple macro - news [18][19] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise's profit was 4887.86 yuan/ton, showing an increase. There were news such as the US government shutdown and the India - US trade agreement [21][22] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract increased slightly. It was in a state of grinding at the bottom [21] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum, and the ADC12 theoretical profit increased [21] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased slightly. There were events such as the Indonesian government taking over a nickel mine area and China suspending a non - official subsidy for Russian nickel imports [23][24] - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract increased slightly. It was difficult to find an upward driving force in supply and demand, and costs limited the downside space [23]

2025年10月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 | 3 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 10 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 12 | | 氧化铝：底部磨盘 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 14 | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：偏强震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面较抗跌 | 18 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交价格 | 18 | | 铁矿石：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 2 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, cloud revenue rose by 27%, maintaining over 25% growth for five consecutive quarters, with a solid cloud gross margin of approximately 75% [6][22] - Total revenue increased by 11% to €9.1 billion, with the share of predictable revenue rising by two percentage points to 87% [7][24] - Current cloud backlog increased by 27%, exceeding €18.8 billion [22] - Free cash flow increased by 5% to €1.3 billion, while operating profit rose by 19% to €2.6 billion [7][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cloud ERP suite achieved its 15th consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 30%, representing 87% of cloud revenues and over 100% of the year-over-year increase in cloud revenues [20][22] - Software licenses revenue decreased by 42% in Q3 [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cloud revenue performance was particularly strong in APJ and EMEA regions, with Brazil, France, Germany, India, Italy, and South Korea showing outstanding performance [24] - The U.S. public sector business is starting to pick up again, with a major framework contract awarded to SAP by the U.S. government [10][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to accelerate total revenue growth through 2027, leveraging AI as a key enabler of growth [5][19] - SAP's strategy focuses on providing software and cloud solutions without building infrastructure, partnering with strong cloud infrastructure partners instead [11][63] - The company is enhancing its AI capabilities, emphasizing the integration of AI with business processes and contextual data to create high-value use cases [12][66] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the Q4 pipeline, noting that many stalled deals are now returning, particularly in the U.S. public sector and manufacturing [32][34] - The company anticipates reaching the lower end of its cloud revenue outlook for fiscal year 2025 due to delayed bookings but expects to exceed its operating profit outlook [26][25] Other Important Information - SAP closed its acquisition of SmartRecruiters, enhancing its capabilities in talent acquisition [22] - The company is seeing significant interest in its new software and cloud offerings for highly regulated customers and governments [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on demand backdrop in U.S. public sector and manufacturing - Management noted positive early signs in the U.S. public sector and a strong Q4 pipeline, with many deals returning [32][34] Question: Insights on backlog and cloud revenue expectations - Management expressed confidence in achieving a good Q4 and picking up stalled pipeline deals, indicating optimism for cloud revenue growth [36][54] Question: Uptake of SAP ERP transition option - Management highlighted positive momentum in the pipeline and noted that the transition option is helping customers move to the cloud [40][41] Question: Competitive position versus Oracle - Management emphasized that SAP's strategy remains effective, focusing on value creation rather than infrastructure scaling [63][66] Question: Free cash flow guidance and conversion - Management indicated that Q4 free cash flow may be impacted by tax cash out phasing and other working capital factors [58][59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, cloud revenue rose by 27%, maintaining over 25% growth for five consecutive quarters, with a solid cloud gross margin of approximately 75% [6][22] - Total revenue increased by 11% to EUR 9.1 billion, with the share of predictable revenue rising by 2 percentage points to 87% [7][22] - Current cloud backlog increased by 27% to exceed EUR 18.8 billion [22] - Free cash flow increased by 5% to EUR 1.3 billion, while operating profit rose by 19% to EUR 2.6 billion [7][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cloud ERP suite achieved its 15th consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 30%, representing 87% of cloud revenues and over 100% of the year-over-year increase in cloud revenues [20][22] - Software licenses revenue decreased by 42% in Q3 [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cloud revenue performance was particularly strong in the APJ and EMEA regions, with Brazil, France, Germany, India, Italy, and South Korea showing outstanding performance [23] - The U.S. public sector business is starting to pick up again, with a major framework contract awarded to SAP by the U.S. Army [10][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to accelerate total revenue growth through 2027, leveraging AI as a key enabler for growth [5][19] - SAP's strategy focuses on providing software and cloud solutions without building infrastructure, partnering with cloud infrastructure providers instead [11][66] - The company is enhancing its AI capabilities by integrating AI into business processes and developing AI agents to automate and optimize operations [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the Q4 pipeline, noting that many stalled deals are now progressing, particularly in the U.S. public sector and manufacturing [32][34] - The company anticipates reaching the lower end of its cloud revenue outlook for fiscal year 2025 due to delayed bookings but expects to exceed previous targets for free cash flow [26][25] Other Important Information - SAP closed its acquisition of SmartRecruiters, enhancing its capabilities in talent acquisition [22] - The company is focusing on high-value AI use cases, emphasizing the importance of combining large language models with business processes and contextual data [12][49] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on demand backdrop and backlog - Management noted positive early signs in the U.S. public sector and manufacturing, with a strong Q4 pipeline [32][34] Question: Delay in backlog and cloud revenue expectations - Management expressed confidence in achieving a good Q4 and picking up stalled pipeline deals [36][54] Question: Uptake of SAP ERP transition option - Management indicated positive momentum in the pipeline, with high interest in the transition option [40][41] Question: Competitive position versus Oracle - Management emphasized the strength of SAP's software and cloud offerings, stating that their strategy is proven and effective [62][66] Question: Free cash flow guidance - Management highlighted that Q4 cash flow may be impacted by tax payments and working capital fluctuations, but remains confident in achieving the target [58][59]

SAP (NYSE:SAP) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 22, 2025 05:00 PM ET Speaker0Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the SAP Q3 twenty twenty five Financial Results Conference Call. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference over to Alexandra Steiger, Global Head of Investor Relations.Please go ahead.Speaker1Good e ...

SAP (NYSE:SAP) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 22, 2025 05:00 PM ET Speaker2Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the SAP Q3 2025 financial results conference call. Throughout today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, you may press star followed by one on your touch-tone telephone. I would now like to turn the conference ove ...

每经AI快讯，10月23日，SAP美国存托凭证下跌4.5%，第三季度云营收未达预期。 ...

Core Insights - SAP reported Q3 earnings of $1.85 per share, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.69, while quarterly revenue was $10.54 billion, slightly below the estimate of $10.57 billion [2][4]. Financial Performance - Cloud revenue grew by 22%, and 27% when adjusted for constant currencies [5]. - Cloud ERP Suite revenue increased by 26%, and 31% at constant currencies [5]. - Total revenue rose by 7%, and 11% at constant currencies [5]. - IFRS operating profit increased by 12%, while non-IFRS operating profit rose by 14%, and 19% at constant currencies [5]. Market Position and Outlook - CEO Christian Klein highlighted strong cloud revenue growth of 27% and emphasized gaining market share as customers adopt solutions across the Business Suite [4]. - The current cloud backlog stands at $21.8 billion, reflecting a 23% increase, and a 27% increase at constant currencies [5]. - The company expressed confidence in its revenue growth ambitions for 2026, supported by a strong pipeline for Q4 [4].

The company reported higher revenue and operating profit for the third quarter and guided for operating profit toward the high end of its prior outlook for the year. ...

Third Quarter 2025 Results Christian Klein, CEO Dominik Asam, CFO October 22, 2025 Christian Klein CEO Q3 was a great quarter 4,351 (+27%) 4,708 (+27%) 4,993 (+26%) 5,130 (+28%) 5,290 (+27%) 3,209 (+28%) 3,458 (+29%) 3,745 (+30%) 3,856 (+31%) 3,972 (+28%) Q3 24 Q4 24 Q1 25 Q2 25 Q3 25 Cloud revenue in € millions (yoy @cc) Cloud gross profit in € millions (yoy @cc) Current cloud backlog € millions 18,839 ▲ +23% (+27% @cc) Cloud revenue € millions 5,290 ▲ +22% (+27% @cc) Cloud ERP Suite revenue € millions 4,5 ...