Market Overview - The market is experiencing a busy day with significant earnings reports and comments from political figures impacting sentiment [2][5] - The divergence between the NASDAQ and Russell indices indicates a recent rotation of money back into technology stocks after a brief period of underperformance [3][4] Technology Sector Insights - Major technology companies are set to report earnings, with ASML's bookings nearly doubling estimates, reflecting strong demand in the semiconductor sector [4][5] - The ongoing infrastructure buildout is driving GDP growth, estimated at 4-5%, which is beneficial for the technology sector and broader economy [5][6] - There is a notable divergence within the technology sector, with some large-cap software companies hitting 52-week lows while the overall market reaches new highs [8][19] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain current interest rates, with little market expectation for changes, although there is interest in potential dissenting votes among new members [12][13] - The selection of the next Fed chair is generating intrigue, with several candidates being discussed, and the Senate confirmation process is a critical factor [10][17] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure (capex) among major tech firms is a focal point, with expectations that it should neither be too high nor too low to maintain investor confidence [9][20] - The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on software companies remains uncertain, with questions about how increased competition will affect profitability and market dynamics [22][23]

Core Insights - Wix.com Limited (NASDAQ:WIX) is identified as one of the 10 cheap stocks with significant upside potential, despite recent price target reductions by analysts [1] - The stock has experienced a 62% decline over the past year due to financial pressures related to the development of new AI tools, but has gained over 15% in the last three trading sessions following the announcement of a new AI website builder [2] - The newly launched AI website builder, 'Wix Harmony', allows users to create and edit enterprise-grade websites using natural language prompts, addressing previous limitations such as security vulnerabilities and basic design options [3] Price Target Adjustments - Citizens lowered its price target for Wix from $185 to $125, indicating a 41% upside potential from the current price [1] - Barclays also reduced its price target by $5 from $210, reflecting a cautious outlook while still acknowledging potential for growth [1] Product Development and Market Position - Wix Harmony enhances user experience by enabling the creation of visually appealing websites without compromising on scalability, security, reliability, and performance [3] - The company has transitioned from being known for simple drag-and-drop website builders to becoming a recognized brand in AI-driven website development [3]

Market Overview - The market in 2025 was characterized by extreme volatility, with small caps experiencing a significant rally followed by a sharp retreat due to various uncertainties, including government policy and AI-related concerns [4][5] - Small caps outperformed large caps in earnings growth for the first time in over a decade during the third quarter, indicating an improving earnings backdrop for this asset class [5][6] - Despite challenges, the U.S. economy showed solid growth, allowing the Federal Reserve to continue its rate-cutting cycle [4] Performance Overview - The ClearBridge Small Cap Growth Strategy underperformed the Russell 2000 Growth Index in the fourth quarter, primarily due to disappointing earnings in the IT sector and a strong rally in biotechnology stocks [6][7] - The biotechnology sector saw a significant rebound, with the Russell 2000 Growth Biotech Index returning 28.1%, highlighting the challenges faced by other sectors [6] - The health care sector contributed positively to performance, with notable individual performers like Penumbra and Insmed [8][19] Portfolio Positioning - In 2025, the company established 29 new investments and exited 19 positions, indicating an active year for idea generation [10][11] - New investments included Protagonist Therapeutics, Simpson Manufacturing Company, BETA Technologies, and Dyne Therapeutics, each with strong growth potential in their respective fields [11][22] - The company maintained a disciplined approach to selling positions where fundamentals changed or catalysts were lacking [10] Outlook - The outlook for small cap growth stocks in 2026 is optimistic, with expectations for a broadening of growth leadership across various industries [13][14] - The productivity benefits of AI are anticipated to become more visible, potentially benefiting companies leveraging AI for efficiency and new product offerings [14] - Capital markets are showing signs of improvement, with increased IPO activity and M&A volumes, creating a favorable environment for small cap investments [15][16]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Application Software, specifically focusing on Software as a Service (SaaS) in North America - **2025 Performance**: Application SaaS underperformed due to muted revenue growth, limited upward estimate revisions, and multiple compression driven by AI-related concerns. The valuation discount on application SaaS relative to broader software increased to approximately 37% from 20% a year ago [3][7][21]. Key Insights - **AI Concerns**: Peak AI fears were noted in 2025, leading to a shift in investor sentiment. Companies emphasized competitive advantages such as proprietary data and large installed bases but struggled to improve investor confidence [3][23]. - **Bull Case for 2026**: The bull case hinges on application software becoming the primary delivery mechanism for AI capabilities, potentially expanding the total addressable market and improving growth trajectories. However, the lack of clear growth inflection in 2025 left many vendors perceived as disrupted by AI [3][23][35]. - **CIO Survey Insights**: A survey indicated that 19% of CIOs operationalizing AI/ML technologies view application vendors as primary partners, an increase from 13% in the previous quarter. This suggests a shift in perception towards application software as a vehicle for AI functionalities [26][29]. Investment Recommendations - **Selective Approach**: A selective investment strategy is recommended, favoring companies with strong positioning in the "AI Success Framework" and idiosyncratic growth stories. Preferred companies include HUBS, KVYO, WIX, AMPL, BL, DSGX, and NAVN [2][7][52]. - **Price Target Adjustments**: Price targets for several companies were updated, reflecting changes in growth outlooks and market conditions. For example, HUBS was adjusted to $577, while KVYO was set at $42 [5][54]. Risks and Considerations - **AI Risks**: The report outlines three core areas of AI-related risks: DIY risk, start-up risk, and seat-based model risk. Evidence suggests that fears regarding these risks may be overstated, but ongoing monitoring is necessary [24][26][27]. - **Cyclical Headwinds**: The optimization cycle that began in 2022 is largely digested, with stabilization in key performance indicators like ARR and billings growth. However, broad-based positive spending revisions remain absent, necessitating a cautious approach [35][36]. - **2026 Spending Growth**: Software is expected to see modest growth in spending, projected at 3.8%, compared to declines in hardware and communications sectors. This indicates a relatively healthier positioning for software in IT spending plans [43][44]. Conclusion - **Outlook for 2026**: The outlook for application SaaS in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with potential for improved sentiment as AI risks are reassessed and growth trajectories begin to stabilize. However, the absence of broad-based positive revisions in spending necessitates a selective investment approach [2][35][52].

Core Insights - Shopify (SHOP) shares closed at $157.51, 14% lower than the 52-week high of $182.19, but have increased by 52.2% over the past year, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 28.5% appreciation [1] Valuation - Shopify is considered significantly overvalued with a Value Score of F, trading at a 12-month price/sales (P/S) ratio of 14.56X compared to the sector's 7.46X [2] Comparison with Competitors - Shopify shares are more expensive than those of Amazon (3.16X), Wix.com (2.16X), and Commerce.com (0.90X) in terms of P/S multiples, although Shopify has outperformed these companies in share price performance over the past year [5] Earnings Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Shopify's 2025 earnings is $1.45 per share, indicating an 11.54% year-over-year growth, with revenues projected at $11.46 billion, reflecting a 29% increase [10] - For 2026, earnings are estimated at $1.77 per share, showing a 21.7% growth, with revenues expected to reach $13.97 billion, a 22% increase [11] Growth Drivers - Shopify's international gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 41% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with Europe contributing 21% of revenues [14] - The company is expanding its international presence through partnerships and new services, including Shopify Payments and fulfillment options, enhancing merchant access to growth funding [15][16] AI Integration - Shopify is leveraging AI to improve shopping experiences, utilizing tools for product discovery and enhancing customer interactions through partnerships with companies like OpenAI and Microsoft [12][13] Conclusion - While Shopify faces near-term challenges from gross margin pressures and competition, its long-term prospects are bolstered by AI integration and international expansion, suggesting that current investors should hold their positions [17]

Core Viewpoint - Wix.com shares experienced a significant decline of 51.6% in 2025, despite steady growth in its website-building platform, primarily due to rising costs and potential disruption from AI technologies [1][2]. Financial Performance - Wix.com has shown remarkable revenue growth of 7,740% since 2011, recently approaching $2 billion [3]. - The company is projected to achieve double-digit revenue and bookings growth in 2025, with free cash flow exceeding $500 million in the last twelve months, indicating strong underlying profitability [7]. AI Disruption and Strategic Response - The rise of AI tools poses a threat to Wix's competitive advantage, as modern coding tools allow users to create websites through simple voice commands, potentially lowering subscription costs [4][8]. - In response, Wix.com has acquired Base 44, an AI vibe-coding tool, which is expected to significantly contribute to its revenue, with projected annual recurring revenue (ARR) reaching $50 million by the end of 2025 [5]. Market Position and Investment Opportunity - Following the stock's decline, Wix.com now has a market capitalization of $5 billion, trading at under 10 times its trailing free cash flow, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors [9].

Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call covered various companies within the North American Internet sector, specifically focusing on web builders, digital advertising, eCommerce, EdTech, and online dating. Company-Specific Insights GoDaddy (GDDY) - Management is positive about GoDaddy's vibe coding strategy, focusing on current customers and web building, with cost guardrails in place [5] - The ANS marketplace was launched, but significant financial contributions are not expected until 2026 [5] - Growth drivers for A&C bookings in 2026 include Airo, P&B strategy, and seamless commerce experiences [5] - Airo is improving average order value (AOV) and retention metrics, with a focus on high lifetime value (LTV) customers [5] Wix (WIX) - Management expects approximately 25% free cash flow (FCF) margins in 2026, despite anticipated margin compression [7] - Gross margins are improving, but variability exists due to free users abandoning projects [7] - Wix is testing a new self-creator platform with more GenAI features, but price increases in 2026 are less likely [7] - Core Wix performance remains strong, but growth acceleration may be challenging [7] The Trade Desk (TTD) - Recent layoffs affected only 1% of headcount, aligning with product and engineering initiatives [8] - No expected impact from OMC and IPG consolidation; strong relationships with both companies [8] - Kokai adoption reached 85% in November, with expectations to reach 100% soon [8] Criteo (CRTO) - Management sees agentic commerce as a significant opportunity, leveraging commerce data for better ad spend efficiency [8] - Retail Media core is performing well, with good traction in auction-based display products [8] Zeta (ZETA) - OneZeta is a key growth factor for 2026, part of the Marigold acquisition strategy [9] - Athena is on track for general availability in 1Q, but management is cautious about setting high expectations [9] IAC (IAC) - Core assets are People and MGM, with management believing both are undervalued [9] - The M&A strategy will focus on digital publishing and content sites [9] eBay (EBAY) - Guidance indicates healthy US consumer spending but weak trends in Europe [10] - eBay's holiday window extends into 1Q, with a focus on collectibles [10] - Management expects to buy back 90-100% of normalized FCF in 2026 [10] Wayfair (W) - Management reiterated 4Q guidance, noting slight deterioration in industry volume levels [11] - Success in initiatives like loyalty programs and influencer marketing is driving share gains [11] - AI initiatives are expected to roll out in 2026, enhancing user experience [11] Duolingo (DUOL) - Focus remains on user growth trends, with certain features moved back in front of the paywall [12] - Management is experimenting with GenAI features to drive user engagement [14] Match Group (MTCH) - Product testing at Tinder is ongoing, with a focus on product outcomes over near-term monetization [15] - Face Check has been rolled out in the US, with revenue impact being optimized [15] Bumble (BMBL) - Management expects a peak in declines in 4Q, with initiatives aimed at improving user experience [15] - A new AI app is being tested to enhance onboarding and matching processes [15] Additional Insights - The overall sentiment across the companies indicates a cautious optimism, with many focusing on strategic initiatives to drive growth while managing costs and market challenges [5][7][8][9][10][11][12][14][15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: North America Internet sector, with emphasis on trends and projections for 2026 [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Evolution of Internet Usage**: The way users interact with the internet is changing, with search evolving into a more answer-oriented approach. This is driven by the adoption of AI technologies, particularly agentic browsers that provide a personalized and interactive experience [6][14] 2. **AI Agent Adoption**: The integration of AI agents is expected to transform online shopping (Agentic Commerce), travel booking (Agentic Travel), and website development. However, this transition is still in its early stages, with varying impacts across different sectors [6][14] 3. **Resilience in Online Marketplace Demand**: The demand for online marketplaces remains strong, particularly in mobility and delivery sectors. The adoption of grocery and retail services is anticipated to be a key focus area in 2026 [6][14] 4. **Cloud Infrastructure Growth**: Revenue growth for cloud services, particularly AWS and Google Cloud, is accelerating. Projected infrastructure capital expenditures for 2026 across major players (GOOGL, AMZN, META) are expected to reach approximately $350 billion [6][14] 5. **Online Advertising and eCommerce Trends**: The U.S. online advertising market is projected to grow by 14% year-over-year, while eCommerce is expected to increase by 7% in 2026, driven by AI and end-to-end automation tools [6][14] 6. **Margin Expansion Trends**: A pause in margin expansion is noted across multiple companies in 2026, following years of consistent growth post-2022 downturn. Future product developments from current investments are anticipated to drive the next growth phase [6][14] Company-Specific Insights - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Added to Citi's Focus List due to accelerating AWS revenue growth and strong margin expansion trends. Target Price (TP): $320 [6] - **Alphabet (GOOGL)**: Query growth is accelerating, supported by advancements in AI technologies. TP: $343 [6] - **Reddit (RDDT)**: Focus on daily active user growth with a revamped app expected to enhance monetization. TP: $265 [6] - **DoorDash (DASH)**: Anticipated margin expansion reversion in 2027 as core order growth accelerates. TP: $283 [6] - **Carvana (CVNA)**: Expected growth in used vehicle sales driven by improved awareness and inventory. TP: $550 [6] Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Performance**: The average year-to-date return for the internet sector in 2025 was +5%, compared to +15% for the S&P 500 and +19% for the NASDAQ. Larger cap companies outperformed, with GOOGL leading at +60% [11] 2. **Valuation Metrics**: Most sub-sectors are trading below their 10-year EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA averages, with GOOGL, EBAY, and KSPI trading at a premium [12][13] 3. **Key Trends for 2026**: - Search is evolving into a more answer-focused model - The rise of agentic browsers for a personalized web experience - Robust demand for online advertising and cloud services - Growth in autonomous vehicles and food delivery services [14] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections for the North American internet sector as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both macro trends and specific company performances.

Core Insights - Shopify (SHOP) shares have returned 41.6% over the past 12 months, significantly outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 20.4% rise, attributed to consistent results and strong execution [1] - Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and revenues both grew by 32% in Q3 2025, with GMV growth accelerating from 31% in the previous quarter and revenue growth from 31% in the previous quarter [1][2] Performance Metrics - The acceleration in GMV and revenues is driven by an expanding merchant base, expected to continue into 2026, supported by Shopify's merchant-friendly platform and AI-powered tools [2] - Free cash flow margin has shown steady growth, reported at 15% in Q1 2025, 16% in Q2 2025, and 18% in Q3 2025, with Q4 2025 expected to slightly exceed Q3 figures [2] Competitive Positioning - Shopify has outperformed peers such as Amazon (AMZN), Wix.com (WIX), and Commerce.com (CMRC), which saw share declines of 2.9%, 53%, and 37.9% respectively over the same period [3] - The company is leveraging a vast amount of data from its expanding merchant base to enhance shopping experiences, utilizing AI tools for improved product discovery and checkout processes [7][9] International Expansion - International GMV grew by 41% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with Europe contributing 21% of revenues, and Shopify Capital now available in several European countries [10] - Shopify has expanded its payment solutions and partnerships to enhance fulfillment flexibility, including collaborations with major logistics providers [12] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Shopify's 2025 earnings is $1.45 per share, indicating an 11.54% year-over-year growth, with revenues projected at $11.45 billion, reflecting a 29% increase [13] - Merchant Solutions revenues are estimated at $8.70 billion for 2025, suggesting a 33.3% growth from 2024, while Subscription solutions revenues are expected to reach $2.75 billion, indicating a 17.1% growth [14] Valuation Concerns - Shopify's shares are currently considered overvalued, trading at a forward price/sales (P/S) ratio of 15.43X, significantly higher than the sector averages [15][16] - The company is facing potential gross margin pressures due to a higher mix of low-margin Merchant Solutions revenues and rapid Payments penetration [20]

Core Viewpoint - Pinterest is acquiring tvScientific to enhance its performance advertising capabilities on connected TV (CTV), aiming to integrate high-intent audiences and AI-driven advertising solutions into its platform [1][2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Pinterest has entered a definitive agreement to acquire tvScientific, expecting the transaction to close in the first half of 2026, pending regulatory review [2]. - The acquisition will allow Pinterest to leverage the tvScientific platform within its existing advertising suite, Pinterest Performance+, enhancing its automation and AI capabilities [3]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The integration of tvScientific will enable advertisers to utilize performance metrics for TV advertising, positioning Pinterest as a comprehensive solution for search, social, and CTV performance [4]. - This acquisition is part of Pinterest's multi-year strategy to expand its advertising reach and provide advertisers with tools to engage audiences beyond its platform [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Pinterest's platform utilizes AI to deliver personalized recommendations and shopping experiences, which will now extend to CTV through the acquisition [3][5]. - The company aims to predict user preferences and enhance the shopping experience, as evidenced by recent partnerships with Walmart, Wix, and Instacart [6].